Who will make it to the JGP final?

The Finn said:

At the moment Spain looks perfect fit for Alisa and she can definitely win there. I am really looking forward to JGP Spain but I just hope Japan doesn't do any changes because I don't want to see Mihara or Higuchi there. And I definitely don't want to see Polina, Maria or Sima there.

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I think that Japan should put Mihara in for Spain since she would have a much better chance at making the final there than at Austria with wakaba and masha...But on second thought that would ruin yuna and marin's chances too..I don't really think there is a good option

Japanese federation did some shuffle.

JGP Austria: Higuchi, Mai / Maria, Da Bin > Higuchi, Mai / Maria, Da Bin
JGP Poland: Kaori, Rin / Polina, Serafima > Kaori, Rin / Polina, Serafima
JGP Spain: Marin, Yuna_A / Alisa, Alexandra > Yuna_S, Yura Matsuda / Alisa, Alexandra
JGP Croatia: Wakaba, Yuna_S / Serafima, Alexandra > Wakaba, Marin / Serafima, Alexandra

Austria & Poland have not changed,
but Yuna_S got Spain replacing Marin, and Yura Matsuda replaced Yuna_A
Marin got Croatia instead of Spain.

What does this mean?
Japan underestimated Alisa, which is a great news for her.
I think clean Alisa can beat clean Yuna_S.
And all Japanese second finishers, Mai, Kaori & Marin, seem to finish third @their second assignments.
Then it is going to be four Russians and two Japanese, only Wakaba & Yuna_S.
If Yuna_S wins over Alisa, that would be a good news for those three Japanese girls.
In that case, whoever got the highest score will be qualified among those three.

Of course, there are so many other scenarios,
like the case Mai finishes second and Wakaba third @Austria.
Or Alexandra comes back very strong and wins @Spain.
Also there can be more re-shuffling to come.

But one thing that I am sure is that
at this point, the possibility for Alisa to make the final has become bigger,
though she has to win @Spain, and she has to be clean to do so.

Come to think of it, it is kinda mystery why Japanese federation had to do this change.
Moving Mai or Kaori, or both, to Spain would be the most winning idea for Japan naturally I assume.
Even it seems that keeping Marin there would be better than putting Yuna_S and the substitute girl there for Yuna_A
since the probability that clean Marin can beat clean Alisa would be bigger than clean Yuna_S beats clean Alisa.

So who will get the benefit out of this change?
Only Yuna_S.
Having won one already, all she has to do is to finish 4th or above @her second one to be in,
which seems that she is capable to do it @any of those four competitions.
Of course, it is easiest @Spain.

Then did Japanese federation sacrifice three girls only to assure Yuna_S's qualification?
Hmmm??

I do not understand why?
Before this change, at least Marin was at the good position to make the final,
but now up against Wakaba & Serafima, it would be much more difficult for her.
she has to finish at least 3rd, and hopefully Alisa would not win @Spain,
then Marin's score has to be bigger than Mai's and Kaori's in the case all three end up 2-3 situation.

Well, still one thing I can say is that this is the good news for Alisa.

bluelutz said:

Then it is going to be four Russians and two Japanese

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Yes, this is the scenario I end up in my predictions and hopefully it got it right.

bluelutz said:

like the case Mai finishes second and Wakaba third @Austria.

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One thing I don't get is the fact that everybody seem to think Wakaba will beat Mai. Mai recently scored almost 180 points and Wakaba has skated better only once. Last JGP season Wakaba scored 169 and 176 in her JGP events and 178 in the final. Mai is fully capable to beat Wakaba and that wouldn't even be much of a surprise.

bluelutz said:

So who will get the benefit out of this change?
Only Yuna_S.

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Aw, and I really wanted Marin at the JGPF, now JSF has pretty much killed her chances to go. I don't get why they made that move either, but then again, for a supposedly powerful federation, I always thought JSF did a pretty bad job.

The Finn said:

One thing I don't get is the fact that everybody seem to think Wakaba will beat Mai. Mai recently scored almost 180 points and Wakaba has skated better only once. Last JGP season Wakaba scored 169 and 176 in her JGP events and 178 in the final. Mai is fully capable to beat Wakaba and that wouldn't even be much of a surprise.

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Scored better =/= skated better, especially when comparing scores from different seasons. Scoring changes from season to season. IMO, Mai didn't skate better than Wakaba did mostly last season. Another example, Polina Tsurskaya with her Bratislava skates would have won silver at last years JW if you take the scores at face value (Polina scored 189, Sima 186 at JW) - but I don't really think she would if you put her skates among the others.
Also, Wakaba comes in with a year more of experience and work (and reputation as the bronze medalist from JW), so it would make sense to assume she might easily best her scores from last year.

The Finn said:

One thing I don't get is the fact that everybody seem to think Wakaba will beat Mai. Mai recently scored almost 180 points and Wakaba has skated better only once. Last JGP season Wakaba scored 169 and 176 in her JGP events and 178 in the final. Mai is fully capable to beat Wakaba and that wouldn't even be much of a surprise.

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I agree Mai has a chance, and she's already had a good start to the season - whereas we haven't yet seen what form Wakaba is in right now.

It is not surprising if people have higher expectations from Wakaba: In the same season you mentioned above, Wakaba was 3rd at Japanese nationals, where Mai finished 9th in the same competition. Wakaba also finished 3rd at the JGP final, and 3rd at junior World's - whereas Mai didn't make the final and didn't make the World's team. I doubt Wakaba has been standing still in the meantime either, and I must admit I expect more from her than last year too.

But a lot can change in a short time, for juniors...

Li'Kitsu said:

Aw, and I really wanted Marin at the JGPF, now JSF has pretty much killed her chances to go.

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Yes, I want to see Marin in Barcelona too... but I haven't lost all hope just yet...

There just aren't enough places at the final There's a lot more than six I'd like to see there for each discipline...

In Austria there are quite a few skaters who can secure their spot in the JGPF.

Men
Aliev - 3rd place would surely be enough.
Zhou - 2nd place...

Ladies
Sotskova - 3rd place would surely be enough.
Mihara - 2nd place...
Da Bin Choi - 1st place...

Pairs
Oganesian/Bardei - 4th place would probably be enough.
Poluianova/Korotkov - 3rd place...
Ivanova/Khakimov - 2nd place...
Duskova/Bidar - 1st place...

Ice Dance
Loboda/Drozd - 2nd place would surely be enough.
Evdokimova/Bazin - 1st place...

So, plot thickens now that Sima has been replaced by Mitrofanova in Poland.

All this guessing game about Sima and Proklova has made me think that there might be 4 japanese ladies and 2 russian ladies in the JGPF. Sima will be fit enough to ruin Alisa's chances in Poland but not fit enough to make it to the JGPF herself. Then again maybe this change was made just because the Russian Fed didn't want to put Polina and Sima in the same event and Sima is totally fine. Anyway, this was bad news for Alisa. Assuming that Sima will skate in Spain that is.

Wow, Serafima is out of Poland.
She is still in Croatia, but she is not in Spain, just yet.

This is a great news for Kaori!
If she finishes 2nd @Poland behind Polina, she will be in,
which almost kills Alisa's hope to be in even if she wins @Spain.
If Serafima comes to Spain, that would totally kills Alisa's hope.

Now my prediction is going back to the original,
3 Russian and 3 Japanese girls,
Polina, Maria, Serafima & Wakaba, Yuna_S, Kaori (or Mai)

I really hope Serafima is not injured or ill,
But if she misses her one more assignment for any reason,
we would possibly see 4 Japanese girls @the final.

At this moment, there is two almost sure things,
one of them is that Alisa's possibility to be in the Final has become much smaller.
Ahaha, it is like a jet coaster ride, two day ago her chance got bigger, now it got smaller.
And the other thing is that Maria and Polina will be in
since all they have to do is to finish 3rd or above @their next ones, even 4th might do for them,
and I hardly see they finish lower than 2nd.
Yuna_S is not a strong skater as Maria and Polina, so it is not sure like them,
but still @Spain, even with Serafima, she is very capable to medal which she has to do to be in.

More changes will come, somebody may bomb, Alexandra may come back strong etc..
or more re-shuffle.

bluelutz said:

This is a great news for Kaori!
If she finishes 2nd @Poland behind Polina, she will be in,

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Yes, things look promising for Kaori at the moment, although I would say that Mitrofanova could be a threat to Kaori's pursuit of 2nd place.

bluelutz said:

More changes will come, somebody may bomb, Alexandra may come back strong etc..
or more re-shuffle.

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To me it looks like Proklova might not skate this JGP season. Why else would Russian Fed give Mitrofanova to her 2nd event? Proklova was one of the substitute in the 5th event, yet they choose Mitrofanova and because of that either Proklova or Fedichkina will not get 2 events. The way I see it is that the only reason for that choice is the fact that Proklova isn't fit to skate. At least not in two events. All this is assuming that Sima is fine and wll skate at the two last events as she has said. I am also assuming that there is nothing wrong with Alisa either.

To me it also looks like Russian Fed might be in trouble at the last event and that is because of their substitute choices or better yet lack of it. If we assume that Proklova will likely not skate there as it seems to me then the only viable substitute is Pervushkina. All the other skaters Russia has named in that event have already skated their 2nd event at that time and it looks to me that if for some reasons Sima or Pervushkina can't skate there then Russian Fed has no one to send there as a substitute.

I wonder if Higuchi can still salvage something in FS. This would be a great opportunity for her to show inner strength and not let the SP ruin all her chances. Da Bin Choi could probably score around 170 and if so, Higuchi would need to skate very close if not even better than her PB in FS. Pervushkina did very well in her SP and she will fight for medal also. So, bad news for Wakaba is that even if she would skate pretty clean and would score something like a 165 which would have been good enough for gold in JGP Usa it might only be good enough for a 5th or 4th place in Austria. Then again 165 might be good enough for 3rd place if Da Bin Choi and Pervushkina don't skate clean enough.

Anyway, even if Higuchi would climb 3rd she would most likely have to beat Sima in Croatia if she wants to go to the JGPF. Even if she would end up in 4th she would still have chances but then only victory in Croatia would do.

Poor Wakaba's out almost for sure

Layback11 said:

Poor Wakaba's out almost for sure

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Is she 100% out of the final?

pyri_mids said:

Is she 100% out of the final?

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Unless a lot of people bomb, then yes.

pyri_mids said:

Is she 100% out of the final?

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She'd have to win to overtake Choi and Le by a tiebreaker (all 3 would have 22 total points, and she'd have the 1st place as a tiebreaker) and even then she'd still have to hope a few of the others ahead bomb.

Chemistry66 said:

She'd have to win to overtake Choi and Le by a tiebreaker (all 3 would have 22 total points, and she'd have the 1st place as a tiebreaker) and even then she'd still have to hope a few of the others ahead bomb.

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Slim chances :/ Regardless of placement, I hope she'll be able to perform better in her next event!

The Finn said:

Yes, things look promising for Kaori at the moment, although I would say that Mitrofanova could be a threat to Kaori's pursuit of 2nd place.
To me it looks like Proklova might not skate this JGP season. Why else would Russian Fed give Mitrofanova to her 2nd event? Proklova was one of the substitute in the 5th event, yet they choose Mitrofanova and because of that either Proklova or Fedichkina will not get 2 events. The way I see it is that the only reason for that choice is the fact that Proklova isn't fit to skate. At least not in two events. All this is assuming that Sima is fine and wll skate at the two last events as she has said. I am also assuming that there is nothing wrong with Alisa either.
To me it also looks like Russian Fed might be in trouble at the last event and that is because of their substitute choices or better yet lack of it. If we assume that Proklova will likely not skate there as it seems to me then the only viable substitute is Pervushkina. All the other skaters Russia has named in that event have already skated their 2nd event at that time and it looks to me that if for some reasons Sima or Pervushkina can't skate there then Russian Fed has no one to send there as a substitute.

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That is a pretty reasonable theory.
Thanks!

Well, as all of you know that this week's biggest shocker was Wakaba's 5th finish,
which I did not expect at all as I thought it would be her if someone can beat top Russian girls.

And since the Japanese federation gives the second spot only to skaters who finish 4th or higher,
now she is disqualified to get the second assignment.
However, being the only one Japanese junior female skater,
who has the last years' medal @ both Junior worlds and JGPF,
they might give her another spot.
Also the Japanese federation is expecting her to go to the senior ranks next season
as the preparation for the next Olympic games,
and they want her to have a higher PB like above 180 to secure the spots in the senior GPS,
therefore there is still some possibility that Wakaba gets her second assignment.

At this Moment,
judging with the fact that girls who finished 1-1,1-2,2-2,1-4 were qualified for the last year's finals,
both Vivian and Da bin, 3-3 finishers, are out.
Not 100%, but pretty much so.

Maria, 1-1, is 100% in
and Mai, 2-2 with very high score, is 90% in.

Then,
JGP Poland: Polina, Kaori, Rin, Amber
JGP Spain: Serafima (probably replacing Alexandra), Yuna_S, Alisa
JGP Croatia: Serafima, Marin, Diana (probably replacing Alexandra), and Wakaba may get the second spot.

@Poland, most likely Polina wins to be in the final,
and Kaori probably gets the second to be in the final as well, but Rin and Amber can be a spoiler
both of them are not consistent, but they are capable to beat Kaori if they go 100% clean,
Rin needs to win this to be in, but I think it is impossible as she is up against Polina,
and Amber is already out as she finished 5th @her first one.

@Spain, we still do not know what kind of shape Serafima exactly is in,
but still I think she will win or at least 2nd.
All Yuna_S has to do is to finish 3rd to secure her spot @the final or even 4th finish might do as she won her first one.
As for Alisa, she has to win this to be in, but that is a tall order.

@Croatia, if Wakaba is out, that can be a good news for Marin.
If she finishes 2nd after Serafima, it is going to be tie among Mai, Kaori & Marin, 2-2 finishers,
which means two of them who got higher score will be in.
So Marin has a more job to do, not only finishing 2nd
but also she has to get much better score than the one she got @Colorado Spring.
Then if Wakaba gets the second spot here, that would kills Marin's chance to go to the final unfortunately.

At this moment, the scenario that most likely will happen is,
3 Russian girls :Maria, Polina and Serafima
3 Japanese girls :Mai, Yuna_S and Kaori

Of course, they will change as I did not expect/predict what happened to Wakaba at all.

One thing that I just realized is that I have no surprise with three Russians,
those three are exactly that I expected to see in the final.
However, on the Japanese side, it is nothing like what I expected.
Not only me but probably many other fans assumed that
Wakaba, Yuna_A and Marin were going to be Japanese front runners.

But this shows nothing but the depth of their talents, the least I can say.

Wakaba is guranteed the 2nd assignment. She still has the chance to qualify for GPF on paper.

I hope Marin moved to Spain. They definitely need to prevent Fedichkina from winning.

NMURA said:

Wakaba is guranteed the 2nd assignment. She still has the chance to qualify for GPF on paper.

I hope Marin moved to Spain. They definitely need to prevent Fedichkina from winning.

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The Japanese federation does not have to guarantee that to her.
Her second assignment might have been determined before anybody else's
because she is the only one who had a medal from the last year,
and everybody assumed that she would do well.
But she did not.
So there is no reason that they have to give her the second assignment.
However, because of the reason that I mentioned before,
I think there is still a good chance for her to get that spot.

As for Marin, I do not think they would move Marin to Spain.
Marin was originally assigned to Spain, but for some unknown reason,
they moved her to Croatia just recently.
Then why do they have to move her back to Spain?
For preventing Alisa from winning?
They are supposed to send someone who is more consistent than Marin to do that mission.

Do they definitely need to prevent Alisa from winning?
Nope!
If Kaori finish 2nd @Poland next to Polina, she will earn 13+13=26 points which is tie with Mai.
Even if Alisa wins @Spain, she will earn 9+15=24 and she cannot surpass them,
and if Yuna_S finishes 3rd @Spain, 15+11=26, and Yuna_S will be in.
Then Marin finishes 2nd @Croatia, 13+13=26 means tie with Mai and Kaori,
in that case, two out of those three got higher score will be in.
Since Mai and Kaori already got very high scores, probably Marin needs upper 170s type score,
or even over 180, it depends on Kaori's score @Poland.

Then if Kaori finishes 3rd or lower, and Yuna_S finishes 4th, then Alisa wins,
In that case, Kaori probably will be out, and Alisa and Yuna_S will be tie, 15+9=24.
Then if Marin finishes 2nd, she will be in, 13+13=26,
and between Alisa & Yuna_S, whoever got the higher score will be in.
If Marin finishes 3rd, she will be out, and both Alisa and Yuna_S will be in.

This means that winning @Spain will not guarantee anything for Alisa,
but just to keep her hope alive to be in the final,
and with Serafima coming to Spain, for Alisa winning there has become much tougher,
which means that the Japanese federation does not have to send anyone to Spain to prevent her from winning.
Even if they believe so, I do not think Marin is qualified for that job much.

By the end of the next week, things will be much clearer.
It depends on Kaori finishes 2nd or lower, and Wakaba gets her second one @Croatia or not.