Who will make it to the JGP final?

[The Finn]

At this moment, the scenario that most likely will happen is,
3 Russian girls :Maria, Polina and Serafima
3 Japanese girls :Mai, Yuna_S and Kaori

Yes, that is the scenario I ended up too. Just for fun I checked what needs to happen so that Alisa can get to the final.

- Besides Polina either Mitrofanova or Nitaya needs to beat Sakamoto in Poland, so that Sakamoto would not get more than 24 points.
- Obviously Alisa needs to beat Sima in Spain.
- Sima and either Higuchi or Pervushkina needs to beat Honda in Croatia, so that Honda Would not get more than 24 points.

If those three points would happen then Alisa would be the 6th finalist. So, it doesn't look very promising but then again I could see it happening. Sakamoto scored a lot better in her 1st event than those other two but all three skaters scored within 1.5 point in their SP in their 1st event. Sakamoto had a lot better FS than the other two but this time things could be different. I would say both Mitrofanova and Nitaya can be real threats to Sakamoto. We haven't seen Sima yet and the fact that she will skate at the last two events might indicate that she would not be in top form. If so, then Alisa can definitely challenge her because if she can skate her SP like last time and a top of that a clean FS then that could be something Sima can not match. Honda didn't look that great in Colorado although she can definitely score pretty high scores when she skates clean. Anyway, Higuchi can beat her and also Pervushkina has showed that she can score pretty well with a clean programs.

 

[The Finn]

However, because of the reason that I mentioned before,
I think there is still a good chance for her to get that spot.

I wonder what Japanese Fed will do if Sakamoto ends up 3rd in her event and Alisa will win hers. Then there would be a possibility that Higuchi could ruin Honda's chances by beating Honda at Croatia.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Last year was so much easier to predict. The top three all season were easily identifiable going into JGPF and JWC and everyone else was chasing with a chance to upset. Zhenia by season's end was clearly the most well rounded skater and JWC was hers to lose.

What's interesting to me is that Wakaba vs Serafima is nearly identical to the whole Mao vs Liza thread going on except in this case the Russian (Sima) was the performer who had technical flaws holding her back but was probably the most polished Junior in terms of presentation and choreography. Wakaba was like Liza with minimal choreography and pretty blah interpretation but holy crap...those jumps

Maybe Wakababy needs to get a 3a but TBH I'm not sure it's in her cards. Personally I'd much rather see Wakaba working on showing more presence on the ice and display a lot more connection to the music to create more of a feeling to her programs. I'll still like her regardless but I truly think an increase in on ice presence would go miles in helping her move forward.

This year I have no idea what's going to happen and nothing would surprise me. In a way it's more fun this way because it's possible we'll have no idea who is going to steal the show and and win JGPF.

 

[aromaticchicken]

We've also yet to see whether Polina can handle the pressure coming into an international event as the favorite.... Popcorn!

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Major Popcornz!!!!!!

 

[sabinfire]

Okay, who broke the emoticons in here?

 

[The Finn]

So, about pairs.

- Oganesian/Bardei 26 points. They have made it for sure.

Most likely will make it to the final. Even 5th place would be enough for these pairs.
- Atakhanova/Spiridonov 15 points.
- Gubanova/Sintsov 15 points.

Will fight for the last three spots.
- Duskova/Bidar 22 points. They are placed better than Poluianova/Korotkov. I think they will make it to the final because I don't think there will be any big surprise pairs coming from behind.
- Poluianova/Korotkov 22 points.
- Weinberg/Fernandez 13 points. 4th place might do but it also might not be enough depending on the combined scores.
- Borisova/Sopot 11 points. 3rd place would do if Weinberg/Fernandez don't get placed higher than 5th place or Hoffman/Chudak don't get placed better than 3rd place. If either of those happens then Borisova/Sopot need to be 2nd.
- Hoffman/Chudak 9 points. 2nd place might do but it also might not be enough depending on the combined scores.

 

[cathlen]

Weinberg/Fernandez right now are only substitutes in Poland, which is weird since they have huge chances to make it to JGPF, but I hope that will change. Keeping fingers crossed fo Czechs! Would love to see 4 different countries in pairs JGPF!

 

[cheerknithanson]

Well Dmitri Aliev won gold. So he's 100% secured for a spot in the JGPF. Vincent got silver here, so there's a strong possibility that he'll make it too. Not 100% sure. but it's very likely that he will. With 2 silvers which equals 26 points in JGP/GP points.

 

[cheerknithanson]

Weinberg/Fernandez right now are only substitutes in Poland, which is weird since they have huge chances to make it to JGPF, but I hope that will change. Keeping fingers crossed fo Czechs! Would love to see 4 different countries in pairs JGPF!

I wish so too! Especially that they did something that is so rare to see: A US pairs team getting 1ST in a SP.

 

[breathesgelatin]

Weinberg/Fernandez right now are only substitutes in Poland, which is weird since they have huge chances to make it to JGPF, but I hope that will change. Keeping fingers crossed fo Czechs! Would love to see 4 different countries in pairs JGPF!

If USFSA doesn't sent Weinberg/Fernandez to Poland....

 

[oleada]

The US was very dumb to give up all those pairs spots.

 

[chuckm]

Sakhanovich is out in Poland: according to the 9/10 update, Russia is now sending TSURSKAYA / MITROFANOVA.

If Sakhanovich is to make the final, she would have to do Spain/Croatia back to back.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Sakhanovich is out in Poland: according to the 9/10 update, Russia is now sending TSURSKAYA / MITROFANOVA.

If Sakhanovich is to make the final, she would have to do Spain/Croatia back to back.

Shouldn't be a big deal IMO. These people skate so many hours a day that it shouldn't be too big of a challenge to spend two weeks on the road competing back to back. Didn't Sostkova do it last year and make the JGPF.

Edit: nope she was every other event. Two out of the last three. Proklova did the last two events. No JGPF for her.

 

[cheerknithanson]

I wonder what's going on with Sakhanovich?

 

[cheerknithanson]

You would think that with 3 competitions with pairs down and one to go, you would have half of the 6 spots filled for the JGPF for pairs, but nope. Only one lol.

 

[AlexRus]

You would think that with 3 competitions with pairs down and one to go, you would have half of the 6 spots filled for the JGPF for pairs, but nope. Only one lol.

Situation in Pairs is simple.

Renata OGANESIAN / Mark BARDEI - 1+3 places, they are in Final.
Anna DUSKOVA / Martin BIDAR - 2+4 places, score 293.54.
Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Stepan KOROTKOV - 2+4 places, score 274.21

With one Event pretenders are:
Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV - 1 place.
Anastasia GUBANOVA / Alexei SINTSOV - 1 place.
These pairs have very good chance to Final, they need place 5 or higher.
Joy WEINBERG / Maximiliano FERNANDEZ - 2 place, score 136.62.
********
Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT - 3 place, score 135.42. Their chance to Final is low, they need 2nd place (3+3 is lower than 2+4), it is not so probable with three stronger pairs.
Bryn HOFFMAN / Bryce CHUDAK - 4 place, score 129.34. Their chance to Final is low, they need 2nd place with very high (for them) score 144.88, or bad skating of pretenders above.

Most probably in Final will be six pairs named above asterisks.

 

[Chemistry66]

Situation in Pairs is simple.

Renata OGANESIAN / Mark BARDEI - 1+3 places, they are in Final.
Anna DUSKOVA / Martin BIDAR - 2+4 places, score 293.54.
Anastasia POLUIANOVA / Stepan KOROTKOV - 2+4 places, score 274.21

With one Event pretenders are:
Amina ATAKHANOVA / Ilia SPIRIDONOV - 1 place.
Anastasia GUBANOVA / Alexei SINTSOV - 1 place.
These pairs have very good chance to Final, they need place 5 or higher.
Joy WEINBERG / Maximiliano FERNANDEZ - 2 place, score 136.62.
********
Ekaterina BORISOVA / Dmitry SOPOT - 3 place, score 135.42. Their chance to Final is low, they need 2nd place (3+3 is lower than 2+4), it is not so probable with three stronger pairs.
Bryn HOFFMAN / Bryce CHUDAK - 4 place, score 129.34. Their chance to Final is low, they need 2nd place with very high (for them) score 144.88, or bad skating of pretenders above.

Most probably in Final will be six pairs named above asterisks.

Borisova/Sopot can probably qualify, given that Weinberg/Fernandez may not even get a second assignment. They're currently not assigned to Poland, unfortunately.

 

[AlexRus]

Borisova/Sopot can probably qualify, given that Weinberg/Fernandez may not even get a second assignment. They're currently not assigned to Poland, unfortunately.

I believe USFS is not so stupud to give not assignment for the only US pair with chance to Final.

Replacing Main by Substitute may be made at any moment before Team Leaders Meeting, September 23 10:00 AM Central European Time.

 

[dorispulaski]

Dick Button has said that he believed there was no limit to how stupid USFSA could be...