2007 JGP Final

[Joesitz (RIP)]

What Guan does have is very high presentation scores. That keeps him very high in the standings even though he doesn't have a technical edge. And his competitors have to land all their jumps to beat him, which puts the pressure on them.

Interesting position. Would you say Johnny Weir has that advantage in Senior Men?

Joe

 

[netnuts]

Just checked pairs standings. It appears to me the pairs field is extremely fluid for the time being. The last stop in Britain is going to be a big battle.

 

[chuckm]

Interesting position. Would you say Johnny Weir has that advantage in Senior Men?

Joe

He did have at one point, but he has had a bad habit of not landing all his planned jumps in his FS, and he often leaves out one or two combinations, which trashes his TES. If he didn't have a quad and quad combo, but landed all his triples and combinations, Weir would be in medal contention much like Jeff Buttle, who has neither quad nor a consistent 3A.


Guan lands his planned jumps AND does it with poise and finesse. Mroz, Rippon, Borodulin et al will all HAVE to land their high-tech elements to beat Guan.

 

[mirai_asada]

I think there'll be another medal sweep for the American ladies, like last year.

 

[Lumi]

I think there'll be another medal sweep for the American ladies, like last year.

Jenni Vähämaa and Yuki Nishino will be difficult to beat if they skate clean.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

.Guan lands his planned jumps AND does it with poise and finesse. Mroz, Rippon, Borodulin et al will all HAVE to land their high-tech elements to beat Guan.

I think if you get to see Rippon's L.Placid or Sofia skates (SPs and LPs) you will see a very neat skater who does not have high level jumps but will compare (I think) with Guan in performance.

I haven't see anything of Adam's skates except that Liberty which was not good. If you find a link, I would appreciate it.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Jenni Vähämaa and Yuki Nishino will be difficult to beat if they skate clean.

Nagasu, Flatt and Musademba (if she makes the Final) are also difficult to beat if THEY skate clean.

BTW, take Vahamaa's Finlandia score with a grain of salt. She received PCS scores higher than Rochette, Poykio, Meier, Czisny and Hughes got at 2007 Worlds. ISU judges at Junior events do not hand out PCS scores anywhere near that high.

Also, Vahamaa's TES score was 59+ for a 6-triple progam with three combinations, none a 3-jump combination, and only one lutz, and most of her non-jump elements are level3 or lower. Yet her TES score was higher than Meissner, Kim, Rochette, Nakano and Meier at 2007 Worlds.

Vahamaa is a lovely and talented skater, but at Finlandia she was skating on home ice, and the Finnish ladies all get very high scores at their home event. Finlandia is a lot like US Nationals for them.

 

[dwiggin3]

Do we know who made the final? I'd look it up but I'm in a pre-coffee state and my brain is completely dead....oye, I gotta wake up....

 

[oleada]

I disagree. She skated lights out at Finlandia, unlike her JGP skates, where she's made several errors. Although the competition is in Finland, the judges are international, not Finnish. You might argue her PCS scores are a inflated (and I agree that they were a bit), but her TES was not. Her jumps, aside from the hand down on the lutz, were great. She also has fantastic spirals. Her spins aren't her strenght, but their decent. Aside from the lutz, she had no negative GOE, because her elements are of very good quality. She's got good skating skills as well, better than most of the field, and she has nice flow, presence and charisma.

You are wrong about the levels in the LP - with the exception of her level 2 step sequence, all her elements were level three or above. Also, think of the field she beat - Kostner, Pöykiö and Korpi, who are all European medalists. Additionally, she's made considerable improvement between each of her events this year.

I'm not saying she's ready to beat everyone at the JGP final, but I think she is definitely a contender and shouldn't be underestimated.

 

[oleada]

dwiggin, so far:

Ladies:
Nagasu (30)
Hughes (30)
Flatt (28)
Vähämaa (24)

On the bubble:
Gilles (probably in, with a 2nd and 4th place and 22 points total)
Suizu (two 3rd places, 22 points total)

Yet to skate a second event:
Isaakson (11) - needs a silver or gold to guarantee herself a spot.
Musademba (13) - needs 4th place or above
Nishino (15) - Probably in with at least a 5th place finish.

Men:
Mroz (30)
Rippon (28)
Guan (28)
Kanallakan (28)
Borodulin (26)
Mahbanoozadeh (26)
Bariev (26)

On the bubble:
Gachinski (22) - 13 + 9

Still to skate a second event:

Grigoriev (11) - Probably in with a silver, as long as Razanno doesn't win.
Razanno (9) - needs gold for the final, or a silver with a very high score, as long as Grigoriev doesn't win gold.

Dance:
Samuelson & Bates (30)
Crone & Poirier (30)
Gorshkova & Butikov (28)
Pajardi & Caruso (26)
Chock & Zuerlin (26)
Riazanova & Guerreiro (26)


On the bubble:
Lenko & Islam (24) - 13 + 11
Agafonova & Dun (22) - 13 + 9

Still to skate:
Monko & Tkachenko (13) - A silver will guarantee them a spot, though if they score high enough with a bronze, they're in.
Frolenkova & Kasalo (9) - Need gold to be in. If they win, then they'll go to the final instead of Lenko & Islam.

Pairs is too complicated for me right now! Hope this helps!

 

[chuckm]

I disagree. She skated lights out at Finlandia, unlike her JGP skates, where she's made several errors. Although the competition is in Finland, the judges are international, not Finnish. You might argue her PCS scores are a inflated (and I agree that they were a bit), but her TES was not. Her jumps, aside from the hand down on the lutz, were great. She also has fantastic spirals. Her spins aren't her strenght, but their decent. Aside from the lutz, she had no negative GOE, because her elements are of very good quality. She's got good skating skills as well, better than most of the field, and she has nice flow, presence and charisma.

You are wrong about the levels in the LP - with the exception of her level 2 step sequence, all her elements were level three or above. Also, think of the field she beat - Kostner, Pöykiö and Korpi, who are all European medalists. Additionally, she's made considerable improvement between each of her events this year.

I'm not saying she's ready to beat everyone at the JGP final, but I think she is definitely a contender and shouldn't be underestimated.

She had just one level4 element, a combination spin. Her spiral sequence and her other spins were all level3.

Her TES was inflated as well as the PCS. She received lots of +2 GOEs which you don't see often in top-level ISU competitions. I'm not saying her skate wasn't a great one---it was---but the reality is she would be very unlikely to get TES and PCS marks that high in a high-level ISU competition, and especially not at the Junior level.

I am NOT saying that Vahamaa is not competitive in the JGPF, but I am saying that it's not cricket to compare Finlandia scores with JGP scores.

 

[Lumi]

Maybe Vähämaa's score was higher than it had been in JPG, but she skated two clean programs, addition 8 triples and thats more than Nagasu has been able to do in any of her competitions this season. And can you say spins are strong point for Flatt?

But about Jenni's spins... Last year JWC she had two level three elements in her lp, steps and one spin. Spiral seq and other spins were level 4. I don't know why her spins are not in those levels this season, maybe she just hasn't been able to do all the revolutions.

I wasn't saying anything about Jenni is going to win or anything, but US girls are not so mutch better or so mutch more consistent that you could compleatly write off everyone else.

 

[dwiggin3]

oleada,
thanks!

 

[chuckm]

Maybe Vähämaa's score was higher than it had been in JPG, but she skated two clean programs, addition 8 triples and thats more than Nagasu has been able to do in any of her competitions this season. And can you say spins are strong point for Flatt?

But about Jenni's spins... Last year JWC she had two level three elements in her lp, steps and one spin. Spiral seq and other spins were level 4. I don't know why her spins are not in those levels this season, maybe she just hasn't been able to do all the revolutions.

I wasn't saying anything about Jenni is going to win or anything, but US girls are not so mutch better or so mutch more consistent that you could compleatly write off everyone else.

I don't believe in writing ANYONE off. But I have seen posts on other boards writing the US girls (and everyone else) off because of Vahamaa's Finlandia score.

A parallel is Michal Brezina. In September, he won Nebelhorn with a score of 185, beating Euro medalwinner Tomas Verner. Then last week in Germany, he had to settle for silver in the JGP, and scored only 176, with a FS 19 points lower than what he had scored in the Nebelhorn.

The reality is International "B" scoring is often inconsistent with scoring in ISU major events.

 

[oleada]

I'm confused, because I haven't seen anyone write off the US girls, here or anywhere else. No one in their right minds would. Could you post a link?

 

[Lumi]

I don't believe in writing ANYONE off. But I have seen posts on other boards writing the US girls (and everyone else) off because of Vahamaa's Finlandia score.

A parallel is Michal Brezina. In September, he won Nebelhorn with a score of 185, beating Euro medalwinner Tomas Verner. Then last week in Germany, he had to settle for silver in the JGP, and scored only 176, with a FS 19 points lower than what he had scored in the Nebelhorn.

The reality is International "B" scoring is often inconsistent with scoring in ISU major events.

I haven't seen anyone writing US girls off because of Jenni's score in Finlandia . Besides, if you take one spins out of Jenni's score, she is even with Nagasu's JPG USA score, where Nagasu did LESS triples than Jenni in Finlandia. No reason to write her off.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I will never believe that the points earned in one competition are the defining strength of a particular skater. Those points, however, do spell out the placement of a skater in that and only that competition. Comparing points in different competitions just don't do it for me.

Looking forward to seeing Jenni, Mirai, Rachael, and Suiza at the Finals.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

That's exactly my point, Joesitz. And Junior skaters aren't known for their consistency anyway. Even Mirai had a less-than-top effort in her last JGP but that doesn't mean she won't skate 'lights out' at the Final, and Flatt hasn't had HER best skate yet, either.

Every competition is a new competition and the results of the last outing are immaterial.

BTW, Rachael Flatt completed a seven triple FS at JGP AUT and received a total of 105.02 points, including 60.2 TES and 44.82 PCS.

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

I think that Samuelson and Bates (Ice Dancing) will run away with this title.


It will be interesting to see where they will end up at nationals where they will join the big leagues.

Four teams definitely can medal

1.) Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto
2.) Melissa Gregory and Denis Petukhov
3.) Meryl Davis and Charlie White
4.) Emily Samuelson and Evan Bates

Four teams and only 3 spots for Worlds who will go and who will not?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

We haven't seen the injured Hubbell team so far this new season.

But will Sam and Bates be entered in Senior at US Nats?

Joe