2014 Worlds Men Short Program

[Mrs. P]

I think almost everyone put Hanyu first for the worlds' prediction game, and in traditional NCAA basketball style - bracket busted!

There is no way Japan is crazy enough to award a clean Machida 200 in the FS if even a clean Chan couldn't break that margin. Machida's BV is 84 and that would take a lot of GOE padding and PCS well into the 90s.. Even for Hanyu breaking 200 is stretch - they gotta really wanna hand out that number if they do.

I was thinking the same thing...actually my actual March Madness bracket is faring much better than my predictions here!

 

[chloepoco]

I think almost everyone put Hanyu first for the worlds' prediction game, and in traditional NCAA basketball style - bracket busted!

There is no way Japan is crazy enough to award a clean Machida 200 in the FS if even a clean Chan couldn't break that margin. Machida's BV is 84 and that would take a lot of GOE padding and PCS well into the 90s.. Even for Hanyu breaking 200 is stretch - they gotta really wanna hand out that number if they do.

I didn't realize it was "Japan" that would be "awarding" the points....

 

[SquishyDumpling]

I didn't realize it was "Japan" that would be "awarding" the points....

Fine fine fine.... I hope home home ice bonus doesn't get that cray...

 

[StellaCampo]

When did Machida become so good?! By the way, who is the gentleman sitting at Machida's left side in the Kiss & Cry?

From what I've read in Japanese press, Machida transferred his training base to Japan after last season's Worlds; engaged Yoshinori Onishi (the man sitting at Machida's left side in K&C), who re-worked his quads, introduced Machida to pilates-like training, school figures, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a stampede of young skaters in Japan rushing to join Mr Onishi's class given Machida's transformation within less than 12 months. It is not as if other elite skaters weren't training hard, weren't using latest results from sports science, engaging help from dancers etc. Only Machida seems to have achieved this rapid ascent, which is truly amazing.

 

[Meoima]

I think almost everyone put Hanyu first for the worlds' prediction game, and in traditional NCAA basketball style - bracket busted!

There is no way Japan is crazy enough to award a clean Machida 200 in the FS if even a clean Chan couldn't break that margin. Machida's BV is 84 and that would take a lot of GOE padding and PCS well into the 90s.. Even for Hanyu breaking 200 is stretch - they gotta really wanna hand out that number if they do.

Russia was crazy enough in Sochi, you know. As for Japan, Hanyu's PCS got boosted 7 point in GPF eventhough he didn't need that much to win. I hope they won't do that for Machida because he only need to be clean to get that gold. But with the threat from Javi, I don't know.

Anyways, I just hope that all of them get the reasonable scores, whoever wins I don't mind, as long as that one is the best that day. Just no more PCS inflation.

With the usual bad performance from Hanyu in free skate, I think he has to try his best to stay on the podium. The gold and silver is for Machida/Javi for sure.

 

[HanDomi]

Russia was crazy enough in Sochi, you know. Hanyu's PCS got boosted 10 point in GPF eventhough he didn't need that much to win. I hope they won't do that for Machida because he only need to be clean to get that gold.

Anyways, I just hope that all of them get the reasonable scores, whoever wins I don't mind, as long as that one is the best that day. Just no more PCS inflation.

With the usual bad skate from Hanyu in free skate, I think he has to try his best to stay on the podium. The gold and silver is for Machida/Javi for sure.

Hanyu try best to stay on the podium ... ? Pff, sory but this doesn't have connection with reality at all Even clean Machida is not sure about gold, because clean Machida/ Javi/ Hanyu then it will be battle between Javi and Hanyu.



ps. Can someone give me reasonable explain why Hanyu's 4T received UR ? I replayed that few times and for me it was clear full rotation. Kozuka double footed 4T and no UR.

 

[Silvia451]

Hanyu try best to stay on the podium ... ? Pff, sory but this doesn't have connection with reality at all Even clean Machida is not sure about gold, because clean Machida/ Javi/ Hanyu then it will be battle between Javi and Hanyu.

:agree:
Clean Hanyu can get over 190 points, while clean Machida..probably around 180.

Anyway, no matter who wins, I'm happy with the top 3. I don't like Javi's FS, but it would be nice to see him with the gold medal. (even though I prefer Hanyu)

 

[Meoima]

Hanyu try best to stay on the podium ... ? Pff, sory but this doesn't have connection with reality at all Even clean Machida is not sure about gold, because clean Machida/ Javi/ Hanyu then it will be battle between Javi and Hanyu.

But I have never seen the kid with a FS clean since he joined the senior level. And he is under large pressure right now. His free skate this season is a big question, when will he be able to master it fully, Friday is his last chance but can he do it? Not sure :scowl:. I don't have faith in his 4S, now even his 4T has the problem. He might be lucky to get that silver.

At least Machida is on fire at the moment, and he gets lot of confidence after that SP. Javi could do it if he stays clean. So likely the gold would be between Machida and Javi. Unless they all bombed and Verner or Yan Han get to the lead. That would be exiting to watch.

 

[whatif]

Interesting to note how Machida's PCS magically jumped by 3.5 points in a matter of one month.

 

[Hanmgse]

I just want to watch clean performances, don't care about medals

 

[colourmeblue]

But I have never seen the kid with a FS clean since he joined the senior level. And he is under large pressure right now. His free skate this season is a big question, when will he be able to master it fully, Friday is his last chance but can he do it? Not sure :scowl:. I don't have faith in his 4S, now even his 4T has the problem. He might be lucky to get that silver.

Despite not having very many clean FS, Hanyu is still consistently on the podium or very close to it. R&J 2.0 receives massive scores even when it isn't clean. The fall on the 4T today was surprising, but shouldn't be the cause for much concern.

 

[Meoima]

Despite not having very many clean FS, Hanyu is still consistently on the podium or very close to it. R&J 2.0 receives massive scores even when it isn't clean. The fall on the 4T today was surprising, but shouldn't be the cause for much concern.

More like he never had a clean FS since entering the senior world. I like this kid very much. But I am getting frustrated at his consistency of NOT having a cleaning FS. Will he be able to receive all positive GOES this friday? I will say it's a miracle which I haven't been able to render in my brain.

Gold is beyond his reach now. Machida and Javi, it's time for you guys to shine.

Silver/bronze is still possible for Hanyu . But I don't care about the medal that much. I only want to see him clean in FS for once.

 

[SquishyDumpling]

Interesting to note how Machida's PCS magically jumped by 3.5 points in a matter of one month.

Choose all that apply to the above statement:
a) the judges have been lowballing him the entire season and just realized it now
b) home ice inflation went a little wild
c) who cares as long as it wasn't Russia doing it
d) bech you crazy he deserved all 45.39 points
e) none of the above, state why

I personally think it was the result of magic fairy dust. I guess skating in the moment is an extra bonus.

 

[UnChosen]

Interesting to note how Machida's PCS magically jumped by 3.5 points in a matter of one month.

Chan at his best at the TEB 2013 got only got 46.18...now everyone and their mother is getting within a point of that as long as they land the "required" Quad/3A/3-3 jumps and/or have some sort of a reputation. The cleaner the big jumps, the higher the PCS (except Hanyu)...PCS criteria gets thrown out the window.

One could say say it is world inflation...but beyond the top 3 everyone got pretty much the same PCS they have been getting all season.

 

[sisinka]

Whatever, Kovtun won the spot with his consistent performances through the season and then winning Nationals. Using Euros to decide who should get the Olympic spot wasn't for Voronov anyway, it was for the Russian Fed to give themselves every chance to dump Kovtun (and/or Voronov) in favor of their Hobbled Golden Boy.

Cup of China 2013
SP: clean jumps with two quads, falls in step sequence
LP: clean skate, two quads landed (three planned)
Cup of Russia 2013
SP: clean skate with two quads
LP: one clean quad, second quad – fall, third quad – double, single lutz, bad landidng on second axel, the rest was OK (he lost to Menshov in LP)
Grand Prix Final 2013
SP: bad landing on first quad, fall on second quad, singled axel
LP: only two quads planned – one landed with mistake, second one clean, the rest was OK
Russian Nationals 2013:
SP: clean
LP: two quads clean, the third quad doubled
European Championships:
SP: first quad clean, but second quad doubled
LP: first quad with turn after landing, other two quads doubled, 3-3 combo underrotated

Kovtun’s results were great this season – he got two Grand Prix medals, skated Final, won Russian Nationals…and many people tend to think that only not good skate at Europeans caused that Plushenko was choosen. Why? Looking at Kovtun‘s skating this season, not marks only, he was not too consistent. Cup of Russia LP, Grand Prix Final SP, SP and LP at Europeans. And we are talking about the same Kovtun who was chosen by Tarasova to skate at European and World Championship after fifth place at Russian Nationals last year.
He was under big pressure at last World Championships and failed. This season once again…in moment when pressure arised – leading after SP at COR, expectations in Grand Prix Final, European leading role – he failed. Every skater says that Olympic pressure is the highest possible pressure of all...so how many chances would you give to Kovtun to show a clean skate when he is not able to do it even with smaller pressure (Europeans, Grand Prix and Grand Prix Final)?

Plushenko is Olympic Gold medalist, two time Olympic Silver medalists, World and European Champ, number of mistakes Plushenko did during his whole career were smaller than Kovtun did only this season. With Kovtun at the Olympics Russia wouldn’t win Team Gold, and pressure on every skater in all cathegories in Team Event would be much bigger. Plushenko chances in Individual Event were higher than Kovtun’s as well.
And if Russian Federation forced Plushenko to withdraw after Team Event, everybody from skaters and fans would be complaining that it was prepared from the beginning – so against rules.

Kovtun is a young talented boy, he improved from last season (his jumping style is not the best, but he can land it all), his component score improved probably more than his own skating (but this is another story with Russian Federation and Tarasova support of those “chosen talented young ones“, no matter that he stayed at home for Olympics). I realise that having too many quads in his programs is risky, but right now it looks like the only way how to keep in touch with World top level skaters.

But I still think that Kovtun is not able to deal with all the stress and press around leading man. To win Nationals means that since that time everybody expects as good skating like when he won…and a leader is always critised for every mistake. Kovtun doesn’t look to be ready for this right now (even in every second interview he complains about people who are waiting for his mistakes, how hard is all that situation for him, how everybody expect so much from him…oh my God, do you know any leader man who doesn’t have such surroundings???).

Watching Men SP – Matchida, Fernandez, Verner had a great skate.
I also liked Kovtun’s SP very much (I don’t understand that underrotation of quad salchow, the landing was not the best, but even in slow motion it looked fully rotated – and thanks to a fact that Kovtun lands most of his quads on full blade, not mainly on toe-pick – if he really finished rotation on the ice on full blade, he would definitely fall..which didn’t happened. If a technical specialist was looking at path of his blade to help to answer about underrotation – it is very confusing in Kovtun’s case too, his body position is not strengthened enough so his blade tends to spray the ice around very often event if a jump is fully rotated.)

 

[Ophelia]

More like he never had a clean FS since entering the senior world. I like this kid very much. But I am getting frustrated at his consistency of NOT having a cleaning FS. Will he be able to receive all positive GOES this friday? I will say it's a miracle which I haven't been able to render in my brain.

Gold is beyond his reach now. Machida and Javi, it's time for you guys to shine.

Silver/bronze is still possible for Hanyu . But I don't care about the medal that much. I only want to see him clean in FS for once.

I'm wondering if it's possible for Hanyu to go clean in the LP with his program's level of technicality and his asthma condition. I'm surprised he's never fainted on the ice before. He's always wheezing and gasping for air at the end.

I'm really glad to see that he picked himself up after the fall today and delivered the rest of the program beautifully!

 

[Meoima]

Chan at his best at the TEB 2013 got only got 46.18...now everyone and their mother is getting within a point of that as long as they land the "required" Quad/3A/3-3 jumps and/or have some sort of a reputation. The cleaner the big jumps, the higher the PCS (except Hanyu)...PCS criteria gets thrown out the window.

One could say say it is world inflation...but beyond the top 3 everyone got pretty much the same PCS they have been getting all season.

Chan at Sochi got 47.18 PCS for his short with a mistake. Hanyu got 46.61 for no mistake. Machida got 45.39 PCS for today perfomance. I don't know if Machida performed better than Chan at his best. But today he did skate really well. His GOE is a bit high for me. But I guess the judges were really impressed and become generous so that's not a problem.

 

[whatif]

Chan at Sochi got 47.18 PCS for his short with a mistake. Hanyu got 46.61 for no mistake. Machida got 45.39 PCS for today perfomance. I don't know if Machida performed better than Chan at his best. But today he did skate his best.

So PCS DOES depends on skating better than before. Of course that's unless your name sounds Russian.

 

[Mrs. P]

Interesting to note how Machida's PCS magically jumped by 3.5 points in a matter of one month.

Machida did not skate clean in Sochi.

 

[whatif]

Machida did not skate clean in Sochi.

So?