2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[Tavi...]

Alex Johnson had a great result at Nationals (6th) which bears a lot of weight with host picks. And generally they usually extend a host pick to someone in that 4-6 at Nationas range who isn't a guaranteed a pick otherwise.

Ah I didn't realize that about rewarding higher placed skaters at Nats, and I guess I forgot where Alex finished. He is a really beautiful skater.

So, it sounds like there isn't so much larger strategy involved, more a question of rewarding our highest finishers at nationals and trying to ensure that the skaters we invite from other countries are strong enough to make the competition interesting but still allow for a possible US medal or two?

ETA with respect to Adam v Kolyada or Chan, wouldn't that kind of depend on reciprocity - eg they might take Kolyada in exchange for Russia inviting a US guy?

With Nathan, I would guess a large part of it depends on his recovery, which we haven't heard much about I guess they'll know more by the end of June when decisions are made.

 

[mrrice]

Now that we know that Skate America is in Chicago. I would think they'd offer it to Jason and Gracie.

 

[el henry]

I agree with everything said so far ( hmmmm....) so I'll synthesize.

I don't think, for whatever reasons, USFSA is as enamored of Jason as they used to be. But, even they need to admit he puts butts in the seats, and he would fill even more seats in Chicago. So I think they will be torn between Jason and Alex, Grant or Tim, but maybe go with the seat-filler? I think they will select both Adam and Nathan together with Rafa, it is Jason vs. the rest of the world for the third spot..

I do think Max, sad to say, is the odd man out and he will go to SC. I think if Jason does get SA, NHK will select him for a second spot, just like last year. As others have said, he's popular, and not a medal threat to the Japanese men...

Soothsaying cap off....

 

[gsyzf]

ETA with respect to Adam v Kolyada or Chan, wouldn't that kind of depend on reciprocity - eg they might take Kolyada in exchange for Russia inviting a US guy?

Why would USFSA prefer a Russian skater over an American skater? Every fed prefers their own skaters and wants to boost their own skaters than a foreign skater. Local skaters also help ticket sales and tv rating.

 

[Tavi...]

Why would USFSA prefer a Russian skater over an American skater? Every fed prefers their own skaters and wants to boost their own skaters than a foreign skater. Local skaters also help ticket sales and tv rating.

I'm not saying they would, it's a simple hypothetical. For example, Shoma was invited to Skate America and Jason was invited to NHK.

ETA and if local skaters boost ticket sales Jason - not Adam or Nathan - is the obvious choice for a Skate America held in Chicago - but most people think it won't be offered to him.

 

[silverlake22]

Now that we know that Skate America is in Chicago. I would think they'd offer it to Jason and Gracie.

I'm hoping we see Jason & Adam and Gracie & Ashley at Skate America. Russia puts their best skaters against each other at COR and frankly it makes the competition a lot more exciting. I'd be thrilled to see the top 2 ladies and men go head to head..

 

[gsyzf]

I'm not saying they would, it's a simple hypothetical. For example, Shoma was invited to Skate America and Jason was invited to NHK.

ETA and if local skaters boost ticket sales Jason - not Adam or Nathan - is the obvious choice for a Skate America held in Chicago - but most people think it won't be offered to him.

Jason and Shoma were both at SA. USFSA didn't keep Jason out of SA so they could invite Shoma. Adam and Kolyada can't compete in the same GP due to their seeding, so it's either Adam or Kolyada at SA, not both. USFSA can invite another Russian skater, a lower rank skater like Adian to SA if they have to trade with the Russian fed. If Jason is the local skater, USFSA can invite Jason too. Jason and Adam can both be at the same competition.

ETA: I meant local skaters as American skaters. But if there are local skaters who live in the SA host city, it would be a plus to invite those local skaters too (from USFSA's perspective). I think it's very possible we will see Adam, Jason and Nathan (if he doesn't get the 2nd GP) at SA next season.

 

[georgia]

And Josh Farris has been landing wonderful quads in practice since he was about 14, meanwhile in competition he's only landed 3 (2 with glitches on the landing). Doing a jump in practice is very different from doing it in competition...

Agreed. Josh is my favorite male skater!

 

[karne]

Adam being a seeded skater is what tips the balance here. Seeded skater + US national champion = Adam getting Skate America. And I would be extremely shocked if Jason didn't get Skate America - the USFS isn't completely stupid, they know he'll put bums on seats. They didn't have a problem with putting Max and Jason head-to-head this season so I don't see why they'd shy away from putting Adam and Jason head to head.

I'm wagering the host pick will be used to give Nathan a second (presuming fitness), or Joshua (same again). The difference, I think, is that I think Josh is eligible to put his name in for two GPs as a "comeback skater", so that would remove him from the pool of Skate America host pick eligible skaters.

I'd love to see Timothy Dolensky get it. Nice guy, nice skater, always the dark horse.

The only GP Max has not competed at is CoC. I wouldn't mind seeing him there. I suppose a real keystone is what Joshua does. If he goes in for the comeback skater provision, then I imagine that will have some bearing on how the other US men are distributed. For my own personal soft spot, I think it would be really sweet to have Joshua's comeback GP alongside Max or Jason (especially Jason). But I shan't get too far ahead of myself.

I don't think Jeremy is part of the equation any more.

 

[mrrice]

Agreed. Josh is my favorite male skater!

Mine too, along with Patrick Chan and Misha Ge. Personally, I don't care where they skate as long as they're healthy enough to take the ice. Last season was very difficult with Joshua and Misha missing the entire season. Thank goodness for Patrick and Max or I would have missed the entire season. At least as far as the men are concerned.

 

[karne]

Last season was very difficult with Joshua and Misha missing the entire season.

Misha didn't miss the entire season. He missed one GP and Four Continents.

 

[ice coverage]

... I'm wagering the host pick will be used to give Nathan a second (presuming fitness), or Joshua (same again). The difference, I think, is that I think Josh is eligible to put his name in for two GPs as a "comeback skater", so that would remove him from the pool of Skate America host pick eligible skaters. ....

Sorry to say that Josh is *not* eligible to be a "comeback" skater, AFAIK.

“Come-Back” Skaters/Couples: Skaters/Couples who were previously seeded (placed 1 to 6 within the past 10 years at a ISU World Figure Skating Championships) ....​

Josh is eligible to be a "return" skater.
Does the ISU language mean that the only assignment a "return" skater can get is a host pick?
From last season's Announcement:

Return of a ranked Skater/Couple - “Return Skater/Couple” A Skater or Couple, not included among those defined in paragraphs a) and b) above, who was previously in the top 7 to 12 at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2013 or 2014 but since was injured and/or did not compete at all during the entire 2014/15 season, may be chosen, if applicable, as an Organizing Member Skater, and in addition, may be considered as an Organizing Member’s Choice and will be ranked in the list of Season’s Best scores by taking the Season’s Best points of their most recent season, if proof is given in writing by their Member that they intend to continue their competitive career and their return is announced and confirmed by the date of the annual Selection Meeting. Such Skater or Couple is defined as a “Return Skater/Couple” and such a Return Skater/Couple does not need to fulfill the requirement of a minimum Grand Prix score.​

 

[karne]

Hmm, bother. I thought he was. Must have my wires crossed.

 

[Tavi...]

The language regarding "returning" skaters is kind of confusing. It says they may be considered for a host pick and then will be ranked according to their prior season's best score, which for Josh was 260.01. That would place him at 11, after Adam (pushing Max to 12, Ross to 15 and Jason to 22, etc.). So it sounds like in addition to being eligible for host pick he would be guaranteed one spot and would have a good chance of getting two?

 

[Mango]

My post got moved because of the link, but Nathan Chen has confirmed that he'll start skating at the senior level next season via his fundraising page.

 

[karne]

My post got moved because of the link, but Nathan Chen has confirmed that he'll start skating at the senior level next season via his fundraising page.

Not really surprising, especially since he is coming back from a big injury and I can see a later season start being quite an attractive prospect for him and his team. That said, I hope he still gets the chance for Junior Worlds, if necessary.

 

[musicfan80]

My post got moved because of the link, but Nathan Chen has confirmed that he'll start skating at the senior level next season via his fundraising page.

Not really surprising, especially since he is coming back from a big injury and I can see a later season start being quite an attractive prospect for him and his team. That said, I hope he still gets the chance for Junior Worlds, if necessary.

I should know this by now, but what is the whole process for going from Juniors to Seniors internationally? Doesn't the USFS have to approve and award the assignments?

Nathan is 17 now, correct? Didn't Jason Brown and Joshua Farris turn 18 before they were assigned to any Senior Bs or GPs? And that was after they both medaled at Junior World TWICE, right? Was that purely the decision of Team Kori/Christy & Damon or did USFS mainly decide for them that they would go back to JGPs for another year? And overall, was that a good idea?

 

[StitchMonkey]

I should know this by now, but what is the whole process for going from Juniors to Seniors internationally? Doesn't the USFS have to approve and award the assignments?

Nathan is 17 now, correct? Didn't Jason Brown and Joshua Farris turn 18 before they were assigned to any Senior Bs or GPs? And that was after they both medaled at Junior World TWICE, right? Was that purely the decision of Team Kori/Christy & Damon or did USFS mainly decide for them that they would go back to JGPs for another year? And overall, was that a good idea?

I don't know as much about Josh. But it was widely reported that USFSA wanted Jason to stay a junior during the Olympic year after he had already won a bronze and silver at junior worlds... Kori talked about it a little in the TSL interview that she wanted him to move up, but also waited till he made the decision that the wanted to go senior and he wanted to announce it. So it sounds like USFSA will give strong opinions, but not force the issue if the skater says they want to go senior.

Was it a good decision... in Jason's case yes I think it was. He gets enough crap about his jumps that going senior without a 3A likely would not have helped him, so moving up sooner would not have been good. I do think it was a good idea for him to go senior when he did.... I imagine Riverdance at nationals with a junior skater would have been a nightmare. They may have still bumped him up for the Olympics like they did for Polina, but at the same time he may have ended up Riverdanceing at junior worlds... and probably just looked out of place.

Josh i think getting his junior world title was important for him. With his health, he needed something like that to keep him in the conversation.

 

[Mrs. P]

I should know this by now, but what is the whole process for going from Juniors to Seniors internationally? Doesn't the USFS have to approve and award the assignments?

Nathan is 17 now, correct? Didn't Jason Brown and Joshua Farris turn 18 before they were assigned to any Senior Bs or GPs? And that was after they both medaled at Junior World TWICE, right? Was that purely the decision of Team Kori/Christy & Damon or did USFS mainly decide for them that they would go back to JGPs for another year? And overall, was that a good idea?

Career trajectories were also different, FWIW.

Nathan was 10 years old when he hit the Novice level in 2010 (and won). Jason and Joshua were 14 years old when they were in Novice just a year earlier.

Joshua entered the JGP in the 2009-2010 season (age 14) right after winning Nationals as a novice, finishing 4th and 5th in his two JGPs. At the time, Joshua was quite advanced as a novice, having won by a million points with all his triples (except for 3A). He did four junior seasons (2009/10-2012/13) internationally, though competed as a senior nationally since the 2010-2011 season.
Jason's debut on the JGP was the following season, 2010-2011 (age 15), after he won the U.S. title at the junior level with all triples except for 3A (in Novice, his hardest jump was a 3L). He also did three junior seasons (2010/11-2012/13). Like Josh, he debuted nationally in 2010-2011.
Nathan was too young for JGP, so didn't debut JGP until the 2012-2013 season (age 13). He won JGP Austria with a 3A and backloaded programs, but then his injury (the first) kicked in and he W/D from his other event. He finished 3rd at U.S. Nationals in the junior level, behind Vincent Zhou (too young for Jr. Worlds) Shotoro Omori (who swept the podium at 2013 junior worlds with Josh and Jason). In 2013-2014, Nathan did a full JGP season (+JGPF winning bronze) and won his second U.S. title as a junior and sent to junior worlds, winning bronze. He did one JGP 2014-15 before debuting at nationals as a senior and then went to Junior Worlds, finishing 4th. We all know he did a full JGP season this past season, but didn't do Jr. Worlds/Worlds due to injury. So he was on the JGP four seasons (like Josh) and two world junior championships (like Jason), but only did two full JGP (i.e. 2 events) seasons due to injury/by choice.

Basically Nathan got in the pipeline at an earlier age, but ended up at the junior level for just as long as Josh and Jason.

ETA: Nathan could have entered seniors as early as the 2014-2015 season, since he turned 15 (May 2014) before the July cutoff. If you recall, Nam Nguyen (2014 Jr. Champ) and Adian Pitkeev (2014 Jr. Silver medalist) made their senior GP debuts. Shoma Uno (2015 Jr. Champ; 5th in 2014) and Boyang Jin (2015 Jr Silver medalist; 6th in 2014) made their senior GP debut last season. Despite not making his debut sooner, he will still be one of the youngest guys on the GP circuit at age 17. Sota Yamamoto is probably the only one who is younger (16). Deniss Vasiļjevs is only a few months younger (he'll also be 17 when he debuts on the GP). DAniel Samohin, the reigning Jr. champ will be 18, so the same age as Boyang and Shoma.

 

[karne]

I have vivid memories of this time, ha! I remember being in a rage all afternoon after the GP assignments came out ahead of that season.

It took a bit for the whole story to come out but it went something like this (everyone else can correct me if I've missed something):

2012 JWC: Jason finishes third and bumps Denis Ten off the JW podium. Joshua finishes second, less than half a point behind Han Yan, the Champion. Han had done a quad toe, Joshua was still on his gorgeous 3A-3T.

Kori and Jason mulled the going-Senior thing and decided against it because of the no triple Axel thing. They decided another season as Junior would be better for the jump's development.

Joshua, Damon and Christy, on the other hand, had already decided Joshua was going to go Senior. Except then the USFS told them that he would only get one Grand Prix if he did. Team Joshua mulled this over and decided that starting out with one GP was probably not a great idea, because if he didn't hit, it could do more harm than good. Joshua also wanted a crack at winning the JWC. So in the end, they decided to stay Junior.

Cue JGP Salt Lake City, Joshua lands the quad toe, blows the field away by forty points, and everyone headdesks. Joshua and Jason proceed to pretty well outclass the field most of the season (though Jason, with some uncharacteristic errors, loses to Boyang Jin at Courchevel). At this point it was extremely obvious that in terms of maturity and skating skills they were very definitely Seniors. At the JGPF, Jason lands a clean triple Axel for the first time in competition (but waxels in the FS) and finishes fourth, while Joshua had beaten Maxim Kovtun by a point in the SP, but was unfortunately beset by an allergic reaction in the FS and comes in second overall.

At Nationals that season, Joshua is third after the SP and finishes fourth overall (though some still think that he probably should have beaten Jeremy Abbott who was third). Jason is ninth. Off they go to Junior Worlds where they finish first and second, separated by four points.