2017-18 State of Russian Ladies skating | Page 259 | Golden Skate

2017-18 State of Russian Ladies skating

Shayuki said:
Gubanova? Well, I'd be down for that...

What I'm wondering is whether we'll see some truly impressive newcomer for the JGP next season. As of right now, it's looking like the level of talent will fall off a cliff after the 2003-2004 age group.
Click to expand...

Panenkova and Samodurova are age eligible for seniors next year, too...
Also isn't Alena Kanysheva age eligible for juniors next year? She could be an impressive newcomer, not to the same level that Zagitova and Kostornaya/Trusova/Tarakanova have been because there's so much talent, but still an impressive skater...
 
Spirals for Miles said:
Panenkova and Samodurova are age eligible for seniors next year, too...
Also isn't Alena Kanysheva age eligible for juniors next year? She could be an impressive newcomer, not to the same level that Zagitova and Kostornaya/Trusova/Tarakanova have been because there's so much talent, but still an impressive skater...
Click to expand...
Kanysheva is OK but that's about it in my opinion. Considering 03-04 is insane, 02-03 had Gubanova, Panenkova, 01-02 Tsurskaya, Zagitova that'd be the weakest age group in quite a while. Depending on who is promoted to seniors, she'll really struggle to even earn 2 JGP spots unless she manages to improve significantly.
 
So next year's juniors will be:

Alexandra Trusova
Alena Kostornaya
Anastasia Tarakanova
Anna Shcherbakova

Viktoria Vasilieva
Anna Tarusina
Alena Kanysheva
Elizaveta Nugumanova

Valeriia Emelyanova
Diana Guseva
Anastasia Kostyuk

That's a lot more skaters than room for JGP slots.
I think that the original allotment of JGP slots will be something like:
Trusova 1st week, Nugumanova 1st week
Kostornaya 2nd week, Tarusina 2nd week
Tarakanova 3rd week, Vasilieva 3rd week
Shcherbakova 4th week, Nugumanova 4th week
Trusova 5th week, Kostornaya 5th week
Tarakanova 6th week, Tarusina 6th week
Shcherbakova 7th week, Vasilieva 7th week
(obviously the Eteri girls' names could get switched around, and so could the second-tier girls' names, but I doubt that the Eteri girls' first assignment will be against each other)
Leading to JGP final:
Trusova
Tarakanova
Kostornaya
Shcherbakova
Nugumanova?
Tarusina?
Vasilieva?
Which sucks for Kanysheva...
Or if they want to repeat their mistakes from this year, give one spot to Nugumanova and one to Kanysheva, thus forcing the way in for a Japanese or Korean girl
Once we take into account the Japanese and Korean ladies. But if each week has a Tutberidze girl, they'd be hard pressed to win, and with another Russian girl, they're fighting for silver and bronze on the weeks that there's not two Tutberidze girls, and bronze on the weeks where there are, which won't get them as far... Best way to ensure a Russian JGPF is to put a Tutberidze girl in each week and place another girl strong enough to have final chances with them, or two Tutberidze girls in one week...
This is also easier now that Kihira will probably be moving to seniors.
 
Remember someone like Nugumanova still exists. She should be competitive for JGP spots, too.

plushyfan said:
unfortunately there is no video about her program on YT. But she is very promising
Click to expand...
Vera Kuchmiy? For her age she doesn't look like anything special and her scores are low. I'm not sure if there's something I'm missing, though.
 
Shayuki said:
Remember someone like Nugumanova still exists. She should be competitive for JGP spots, too.


Vera Kuchmiy? For her age she doesn't look like anything special and her scores are low. I'm not sure if there's something I'm missing, though.
Click to expand...

How old is she? Is she too tiny for her age?
 
Spirals for Miles said:
So next year's juniors will be:

Alexandra Trusova
Alena Kostornaya
Anastasia Tarakanova
Anna Shcherbakova

Viktoria Vasilieva
Anna Tarusina
Alena Kanysheva

Valeriia Emelyanova
Diana Guseva
Anastasia Kostyuk
Click to expand...

And that's assuming that all of Sofia Samodurova, Daria Panenkova, Anastasia Gulyakova move up to seniors, which isn't a guarantee since Stasya and Alisa didn't move up this season
 
plushyfan said:
How old is she? Is she too tiny for her age?
Click to expand...
http://www.sportvokrug.ru/fs/athletes/9754/ 23.10.2009 birthday

I'm only going by what little skating I can see in that short instagram clip. But the scoring for her past competitions is far more telling.

31.50 points, rank 19... 28.15 points rank 6... It's really nothing to write home about, especially for a skater who's in the expected age bracket for that level. The top skaters get 38-40 and are the same age or younger.

I'll see what she looks like on 13-14 January, I guess. But her scores shouldn't be so low... I saw a 6-year-old score higher than 28.15 at the same level a week ago.
 
Spirals for Miles said:
Once we take into account the Japanese and Korean ladies. But if each week has a Tutberidze girl, they'd be hard pressed to win, and with another Russian girl, they're fighting for silver and bronze on the weeks that there's not two Tutberidze girls, and bronze on the weeks where there are, which won't get them as far... Best way to ensure a Russian JGPF is to put a Tutberidze girl in each week and place another girl strong enough to have final chances with them, or two Tutberidze girls in one week...
This is also easier now that Kihira will probably be moving to seniors.
Click to expand...

Well, not like she was an obstacle for someone in this season's JGP :) She managed to lose to not only Samodurova during JGP, but even to not clean Panenkova. I feel like she's not a real threat unless she becomes more consistent. And looking at JGPF results, even being clean she might lose to both Kostornaya and Trusova.
 
russianfan said:
Well, not like she was an obstacle for someone in this season's JGP :) She managed to lose to not only Samodurova during JGP, but even to not clean Panenkova. I feel like she's not a real threat unless she becomes more consistent. And looking at JGPF results, even being clean she might lose to both Kostornaya and Trusova.
Click to expand...

But she showed what she is ultimately capable of during the Nationals.
 
tars said:
Nugumanova will be senior eligible next season (b. 2002)
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She will but I really, really can't see her making seniors when she wasn't even in the JGP team this season. There are far too many skaters ahead of her in pecking order. There's not enough room right now.
 
[email protected] said:
But she showed what she is ultimately capable of during the Nationals.
Click to expand...

Thats right, but still - that was her first time in the season(or two?) being clean. This is somewhat similar situation to Osmond, i mean, judges are ready to go with the skater, marks are good, but the skater constantly fails to deliver despite huge expectations...
Will be interesting to see if she can finally deliver at JWC. I dont doubt her talent, for me personally Rika and Kaori are the most promising japanese ladies atm.
 
Spirals for Miles said:
So next year's juniors will be:

Alexandra Trusova
Alena Kostornaya
Anastasia Tarakanova
Anna Shcherbakova

Viktoria Vasilieva
Anna Tarusina
Alena Kanysheva
Elizaveta Nugumanova

Valeriia Emelyanova
Diana Guseva
Anastasia Kostyuk

That's a lot more skaters than room for JGP slots.
I think that the original allotment of JGP slots will be something like:
Trusova 1st week, Nugumanova 1st week
Kostornaya 2nd week, Tarusina 2nd week
Tarakanova 3rd week, Vasilieva 3rd week
Shcherbakova 4th week, Nugumanova 4th week
Trusova 5th week, Kostornaya 5th week
Tarakanova 6th week, Tarusina 6th week
Shcherbakova 7th week, Vasilieva 7th week
(obviously the Eteri girls' names could get switched around, and so could the second-tier girls' names, but I doubt that the Eteri girls' first assignment will be against each other)
Leading to JGP final:
Trusova
Tarakanova
Kostornaya
Shcherbakova
Nugumanova?
Tarusina?
Vasilieva?
Which sucks for Kanysheva...
Or if they want to repeat their mistakes from this year, give one spot to Nugumanova and one to Kanysheva, thus forcing the way in for a Japanese or Korean girl
Once we take into account the Japanese and Korean ladies. But if each week has a Tutberidze girl, they'd be hard pressed to win, and with another Russian girl, they're fighting for silver and bronze on the weeks that there's not two Tutberidze girls, and bronze on the weeks where there are, which won't get them as far... Best way to ensure a Russian JGPF is to put a Tutberidze girl in each week and place another girl strong enough to have final chances with them, or two Tutberidze girls in one week...
This is also easier now that Kihira will probably be moving to seniors.
Click to expand...

I think there is too many skaters who will become senior eligible. Not all of them will be able to move to seniors, because it is not in the federation’s interst to move so many skaters to seniors if they won’t have GP events for them.
Senior eligible- Feditchkina, Konstantinova, Gubanova, Panenkova, Samodurova, Nugumanova, Tarusina, Guliakova...
I think they will let only max 3-4 move to seniors. Which means the rest stays in juniors a year longer. My guess is that Feditchkina and Konstantinova are now definitely moving up. I noticed you counted only Nugumanova and Tarusina staying, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Guliakova, and possibly one or two from Gubanova, Panenkova and Samodurova were also made to stay. I guess it will depend on the outcome of junior nationals and junior worlds.
So that will take more spots from JGP and I don’t think Emelyanova, Guseva and Kostyuk will get anything. Unless they have Tutberidze and will attend test skates where they skate completely clean programs.
 
I think Konstantinova is definitely moving up. Fedichkina, maybe not, considering that she wouldn't have made nationals if there weren't withdrawals.
Gubanova probably will if she can get a high enough SB internationally to get a GP spot. Panenkova probably will (SB of 196.55 from JGP Poland). That means that Samodurova might be stuck, but she might be able to move up. I don't think Gulyakova will get a JGP spot even if she remains in juniors.

Emelyanova and Guseva both have Tutberidze and there's a chance they can pull a Zagitova/Kostornaya.
 
Spirals for Miles said:
I think Konstantinova is definitely moving up. Fedichkina, maybe not, considering that she wouldn't have made nationals if there weren't withdrawals.
Gubanova probably will if she can get a high enough SB internationally to get a GP spot. Panenkova probably will (SB of 196.55 from JGP Poland). That means that Samodurova might be stuck, but she might be able to move up. I don't think Gulyakova will get a JGP spot even if she remains in juniors.

Emelyanova and Guseva both have Tutberidze and there's a chance they can pull a Zagitova/Kostornaya.
Click to expand...
Having Tutberidze increases their chances, but not every Tutberidze’s girl has been succesful. Mitrofanova, Novakhova...
 
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