Medvedeva is in the lead by a country mile.
She is the favourite to win the gold medal at the Olympics, she is the leader in ladies figure skating of the past 2 years so no matter what she is going at the Olympics.
Zagitova is in second right now: the only russian who is not medvedeva that won a GP event so far, she is coached by Eteri Tutberidze so even the Fedknows that she is the best coach in ladies so it's safe to bet on her students.
The third spot is interesting: because Eteri has also Polina Tsurskaya but i'm very skeptical that they will give all three spots to Eteri's skaters, and CSKA is still the favourite in Russia, i'd say Sotskova is probably the favourite right now because of the silver medal.
I agree with u that Medeveda and Zagitova have their sports secured. I also am inclined to agree that Tsurkaya will likely not get is since the don't see them giving all three spots to Eteri's students. Plus I don't know how she could even effectively manage three competitors at the Olympics but who knows. While I think that third spot is likely between Elena and Maria I don't think Maria is really leading anything. She got a silver medal in what was a fairly weak competition in Canada. Even Maria second assignment is not the toughest of fields, but for a couple of skaters. Elena had unfortunately tough GP assignments this season and has not been horrible. She looked better than she has in awhile and has improved with each showing. Her scores for GP Russia with her coming in fourth were still higher than Maria's silver medal score. Granted, Maria had a decent score in an earlier B event. I think this is going to come down to who Tat and Buionova decide the love more. I just think this will largely be a political decision. If Elena was still being coached by Goncharenko I would give the advantage to Maria, but with them both having the same coach I see it going either way. That's just my two cents.

