2017-18 State of Russian Ladies skating
- Thread starter moriel
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- Apr 24, 2017
It was the same - 14yo limit for single skating. It would mean, 13yos have been allowed by coaches council by exception.
Also, I noticed that for senior nats it says: "depending on results of GP, GPF, JGP, JGPF", while for junior nats: "participants of JGP and JGPF".
I wonder, if there has ever been a case of senior GP participant with poor outcome, not given spot in senior nats.
Probably not, but as competition grows, I imagine feds may use the rule against GP participant with subpar results (thereby indirectly admitting to mistake with GP assignments, by the way
).
I don’t know if ‘ever’, but in the last ten-fifteen years I have been watching the skaters who participated at GP got their ticket to the nationals, even those who placed completely last in their GP event. Juniors I have been watching shorter time, but it still has been roughly 10 years and there were never any surprises. There were times when someone qualified and then did not compete (e.g. Nugumanova last year), but there was always some reason behind it, and not the federation preventing it.It was the same - 14yo limit for single skating. It would mean, 13yos have been allowed by coaches council by exception.
Also, I noticed that for senior nats it says: "depending on results of GP, GPF, JGP, JGPF", while for junior nats: "participants of JGP and JGPF".
I wonder, if there has ever been a case of senior GP participant with poor outcome, not given spot in senior nats.
Probably not, but as competition grows, I imagine feds may use the rule against GP participant with subpar results (thereby indirectly admitting to mistake with GP assignments, by the way
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2017
At the moment it's only theoretical question, because it's unthinkable that GP skater could possibly be weaker than a skater barely advancing for nats from Russian Cup.
But when the late year 2002 is going to enter senior ranks next year and 2003, 2004 in next two seasons - it will get very crowdy up there.
The feds will have to choose 7-8 skaters from bunch of 20-30 supertalented and capable ladies - no matter how scrupulous test skates will be, there will always be possibility for mistake in GP assignments.
Thanks to the nats eligibility rules considering GP results rather than participation, federation leave themselves space for correcting things and potentially giving a chance for participation in nats to a good skater who'd not been chosen for GP and couldn't advance from RC, but still is better than some subpar GP skater.
Very unlikely but theoretically possible situation in uber-competitive environment.
At the moment it's only theoretical question, because it's unthinkable that GP skater could possibly be weaker than a skater barely advancing for nats from Russian Cup.
But when the late year 2002 is going to enter senior ranks next year and 2003, 2004 in next two seasons - it will get very crowdy up there.
The feds will have to choose 7-8 skaters from bunch of 20-30 supertalented and capable ladies - no matter how scrupulous test skates will be, there will always be possibility for mistake in GP assignments.
Thanks to the nats eligibility rules considering GP results rather than participation, federation leave themselves space for correcting things and potentially giving a chance for participation in nats to a good skater who'd not been chosen for GP and couldn't advance from RC, but still is better than some subpar GP skater.
Very unlikely but theoretically possible situation in uber-competitive environment.
Not any more. Tarusina will qualify to senior nationals only if she is very lucky (meaning if anyone withdraws) and yet she is probably better (in terms of scoring potential) than Mikhailova and probably same or better than Sakhanovich. Sakhanovich has potential because she has improved a lot in the relatively short time she is in Pluschenko’s school, she also has a huge jumps and her transitions are getting back on track, but Tarusina is more consistent at the moment.
- Joined
- Jul 9, 2014
How many Juniors have won Nationals? I know Cynthia Phaneuf was a junior when she won her first title. Was Mirai a Junior when she won in 2008?
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2017
Yes.
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2017
Lol, you're right!
Can you imagine the future with skaters like Mikhailova, having very nice GP debut with 185 points, 7th place over Nagasu and Tursynbaeva - being put aside for Nats? Crazy stuff.
https://images2.imgbox.com/3f/2a/7reuiZpL_o.jpg
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2017
I wish they'd increase the Nationals spots with one more warm-up group - 6 skaters. I don't know how realistic or feasible it would be to do so - but that is what I'd wish they'd do.
Me too!
And it's not like it'd add another resurfacing. If anything it's weird to only have three groups, with only one after resurfacing.
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2017
Lol, you're right!
Can you imagine the future with skaters like Mikhailova, having very nice GP debut with 185 points, 7th place over Nagasu and Tursynbaeva - being put aside for Nats? Crazy stuff.
https://images2.imgbox.com/3f/2a/7reuiZpL_o.jpg
well i expect about 10 ladies to break 200 points(or at least being close to that, like 196-197 at JGP) at this year's nationals
No, it wouldn’t add much extra cost for the arena (I am assuming that the federation books it for a number of days, so they probably don’t pay per hour but per day), but it would add accommodation costs and maybe transport cost (unless the skaters pay that?)
Lol, you're right!
Can you imagine the future with skaters like Mikhailova, having very nice GP debut with 185 points, 7th place over Nagasu and Tursynbaeva - being put aside for Nats? Crazy stuff.
https://images2.imgbox.com/3f/2a/7reuiZpL_o.jpg
Two years ago, in the Russian JGP team were skaters like Pervushkina, Mitrfanova and Mikhailova. Hard to believe. It's like waves: one is stronger, the other is weaker. The next juniors are not so strong. I mean, Scherbakova aside: Sinitsyna, Kanysheva and that's all, I guess. Their top would be about 180-190 points, despite gleams of mastery in their skating but total lack of face expressions and understanding to the music. But Russia still will have Trusova, Tarakanova, Scherbakova and Kostornaya.
Scores jumped up, because of tending to make programs more difficult. I'll repost my other post:
2012-2013 JGPF - 1st place, Radionova, 118.50 points (64.65+53.85)
2013-2014 JGPF - 1st place, Sotskova, 115.46 points (62.66+52.80)
2014-2015 JGPF - 1st place, Medvedeva, 123.80 points (67.28+56.52)
2015-2016 JGPF - 1st place, Tsurskaya, 128.59 points (69.21+59.38)
2016-2017 JGPF - 1st place, Zagitova, 136.51 points (73.84+62.67)
You can track the difference in 10 (+-1(2)) points between TES and PCS.
Also, possible regression of current junior and senior skaters should be taken into account.
After ISU council I expect the new rule about limitation of bonus for the jumps in the second half. As previously was mentioned by samkrut, if only four jumping attempts will be getting a bonus, the ladies can just leave all combos for the second half. But I guess they will block also one combo, 2/3 will get a bonus, other combo - won't.
I can see the reference with Rhythmic Gymnastic, where was tendency for simplification of programs, just because other girls except Russians just couldn't do that. Pathetic, but this is what we call "sport" at this time.
So, I suppose the current season is the last for making sensational scores, being junior or senior. Girls should try hard. In the next season I expect a loss in the TES about 4 points (because of limitation of backloading and bullets for the tanos/rippons) and PCS -4, so -8 points as a result. Maybe even more.
In any case, will see. The main question right now - is participating Russia at Olympics or permission to Russian skaters to be there under white flag. 5th December, huh?
I think you are wrong when you say the next wave of juniors is not as strong. You forgot two things to take into consideration. Firstly, skaters now have to stay two years at junior level if their first junior season is as soon as they become eligible. That means that the strong ones from last year’s fresh juniors (Gubanova, Nugumanova, Samodurova) couldn’t skate in seniors this season yet. And the same way it means that the strong ones this season’s newly eligible will have to stay in juniors for another year (Trusova, Tarakanova, Scherbakova, Kostornaya, Vasilieva). So It doesn’t really matter whether there are several strong skaters every year, as long as they are some strong ones every other year. And secondly, the seniors will soon become very overcrowded (e.g. there is maximum 18 GP spots per country, but in reality there will be less because it depends on the hosting federations’ goodwill who they invite). There is 8 strong ladies who is in juniors and will be able to move to seniors next year. But senior level won’t be able to accommodate all of them, and some of them would have to accept that if they move up, they will do only 2-3 senior B competitions per seasons and that’s it. So that means that not everyone senior eligible will be immediately moving into seniors. If you have skaters like Tarusina and Vasilieva, which are pretty good but not completely the top of their year, they may figure out that it may be better for them to stay in juniors longer and get two JGP events (plus do some B competitions too) and have a chance to be sent to junior worlds rather than moving to seniors and doing only B competitions. They will also earn the extra points so that when they do move to seniors, they have a chance to get GP event. And Tarusina and Vasilieva may not be the top of the top within Russia, but I am pretty sure that they would medal at JGP. That means that Russia will have strong juniors for a bit longer. I don’t think there is going to be drop in the junior ladies anytime soon, even if the ladies newly eligible in the next year or two years were not as strong. The current junior eligible ladies would gladly hold it until new talent comes through again.
I forgot to add, @puremagic, there is no point trying to figure out how to get extra points. Your problem is that you are not Turberidze. with all reservations I have towards her, one has to acknowledge that pointwise she knows what she is doing and I would be surprised if she didn’t have strategy for the next few years. She is very strategic. To win in the Russian ladies field, one has to have something extra. The hardest triple-triple is nothing, every lady at both junior and senior nationals have the, so what to do to give her girls some edge?
Let’s start with Lipnitskaya - it was her flexibility. The spins and spirals stood out because no one else had spins and spirals like Lipnitskaya.
A few years later the flexibility became norm. No one now stands out for flexibility because lots of Russian ladies are flexible. So suddenly Medvedeva and Sakhanovich started jumping with their hand over head. That gave them the edge and few extra points. They stood out. True, there was criticism that the hand over head is ugly...the following season some of her skaters started with two hands over head. I have to say, it does look better, especially when done well. But, unfortunately, within a few season half of Russian ladies can do the same, so there is suddenly no advantage.
The following season then several Tutberidze ladies start moving jumps to the second half of their program. again, at the moment is is advantage, but the rest of the Russian field will catch up sooner or later. (I don’t believe that ISU will reduce or limit the bonus points because it is harder to do jumps in the second half, it is risky so it must be rewarded. It is sport). Nevertheless, it won’t be advantage for long because the other Russian ladies will catch up.
Tutberidze’s next strategy is quads. She already started with Trusova and Scherbakova. I would expect that within several years there will be several Tutberidze’s girls having triple axels and quads. Seeing clips from Pluschenko’s school, I think it is quite possible that he will push his skaters the same route. With him it will take a few years before he gets some decent outcomes from the skaters who are starting just now. Saying that, the quad strategy will give them advantage for longer than just a few years the previous strategies did, because it is not as easy for the rest of the field to catch up. So I wouldn’t worry that the marks will go down after the current ladies.
with all reservations I have towards her, one has to acknowledge that pointwise she knows what she is doing and I would be surprised if she didn’t have strategy for the next few years. She is very strategic. To win in the Russian ladies field, one has to have something extra. The hardest triple-triple is nothing, every lady at both junior and senior nationals have the, so what to do to give her girls some edge?Let’s start with Lipnitskaya - it was her flexibility. The spins and spirals stood out because no one else had spins and spirals like Lipnitskaya.
A few years later the flexibility became norm. No one now stands out for flexibility because lots of Russian ladies are flexible. So suddenly Medvedeva and Sakhanovich started jumping with their hand over head. That gave them the edge and few extra points. They stood out. True, there was criticism that the hand over head is ugly...the following season some of her skaters started with two hands over head. I have to say, it does look better, especially when done well. But, unfortunately, within a few season half of Russian ladies can do the same, so there is suddenly no advantage.
The following season then several Tutberidze ladies start moving jumps to the second half of their program. again, at the moment is is advantage, but the rest of the Russian field will catch up sooner or later. (I don’t believe that ISU will reduce or limit the bonus points because it is harder to do jumps in the second half, it is risky so it must be rewarded. It is sport). Nevertheless, it won’t be advantage for long because the other Russian ladies will catch up.
Tutberidze’s next strategy is quads. She already started with Trusova and Scherbakova. I would expect that within several years there will be several Tutberidze’s girls having triple axels and quads. Seeing clips from Pluschenko’s school, I think it is quite possible that he will push his skaters the same route. With him it will take a few years before he gets some decent outcomes from the skaters who are starting just now. Saying that, the quad strategy will give them advantage for longer than just a few years the previous strategies did, because it is not as easy for the rest of the field to catch up. So I wouldn’t worry that the marks will go down after the current ladies.
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2014
I really don’t don’t want to see women doing quads. Men have a physical advantage over women in doing quads and even for them it is already quite tough. Trusova is 13, can she still do quads at 17 when her body would’ve changed already? I consider skaters like ALina and Polina some of the best jumpers ever and they’re not attempting quads. I would rather see more difficult entries into jumps.
I can’t see a reason why they couldn’t do quads post puberty. Tuktamysheva managed 3A post puberty. True, it was never that consistent, but Tuktamysheva has a very unfortunate figure for figure skating. No matter how slim she would get, having bigger boobs and hips is not helping with jumps. It slows down her rotation and her centre of gravity has changed significantly from what she did pre puberty. But Mirai Nagasu is not stick thin and has triple axel, Mao had triple Axel... it is doable if someone is fortunate with their figure. E.g. Medvedeva and Zagitova’s figures would do quite well for those harder jumps although it is very likely too late to start now. Mishin was working with Tuktamysheva on her 3A before her puberty. So Medvedeva and Zagitova will have to accept what they have. It will be the next years who will start bringing it on. There are japanese ladies wo are working on them, and some Russian ladies. Not all of them will have it post puberty, but those who will will have the advantage.
If i remember correctly Polina was considering quad lutz in the past, but now with all these injuries, i don't think she will ever attempt.
- Joined
- May 17, 2017
She is inconsistent and struggling with her puberty this season.
