If Alina even steps out or loses a couple of levels in her SP, it's gone for her I think.
Why?
At Euros, perfect Alina scored 80.27 in the short. Perfect Alina = clean 3Lz+3Lo, clean rippon 3F, clean 2A, all level fours on spins and steps.
Not perfect Evgenia scored 78.57 in the short. Not perfect Evgenia = clean 3F+3T with flip tano, clean 3Lo, stepout on 2A, all level fours on spins and steps.
Perfect Alina scored 157.97 in the free. Her skate there only has one way to improve: fixing her musical cues
Not perfect Evgenia scored 154.29. Ways Evgenia could improve this score: better first flip, more rippons/tanos to increase GOE, less tightness on jumps, having a 2A-2T-2Lo rather than 2A-2T-2T. She will do all of them except the last one, probably. Maybe she'll surprise us with her layout.
Evgenia lost not only GOE but also PCS for her errors. If she fixes them --> higher scores. Maybe by 3-4 points. That might be enough to win over clean Alina, maybe not. So if Alina makes a small mistake --> goodbye GOE on that jump, maybe also lowered PCS. Of course, unless both of them implode, they're taking the top two spots. But we'll see in the short.