2017 GPF Predictions: Ladies
- Thread starter gsk8
- Start date
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
Yes, I'd rather expect both of these things to happen too. IMO, if Wakaba skates like she did at CoC, she should be able to beat Caro unless the latter ups her technical difficulty, and Kaetlyn if she isn't clean too (and Kaetlyn rarely is, but she has shown herself more consistent & strong then in previous seasons IMO, so who knows what will happen). But that's not what the GP scores are saying. Maybe, maaayyybe Wakaba's scores will go up compared to before and get a bit of a "consistency" boost, or whatever it is that makes judges change their mind to these big extents from one event to the other with basically identical skating. But we don't know yet, so it's pretty ??? how that will go.
As of now, I think the most likely is:
1.) Evgenia (maybe Alina)
2.) Alina
3.) Kaetlyn/Caro
4.) Caro/Kaetlyn
5.) Waka
6.) Maria
If everyone skates on a similar level to what they did throughout the GP. But it's close enough for it to potentially come down to mistakes, so we will have to see who keeps it together. And I have a hard time predicting that.
I'm on the edge of my seat seeing if she withdraws or not. I feel like she is going to have such a tough Olympic season with either a) her withdrawing from the final and being unable to train for a few weeks and then having to go to Russian nationals possibly being under-prepared and seeing if that has an affect on her psyche. Or b) her going to the final and risking even bigger injury and if not an injury possibly her not winning because of mistakes similar to what we saw during her GP programs.
She has proven to handle immense pressure very well but I think this is one of the rare times she's making mistakes and falling. She looked pretty upset at her last GP event when she fell on her 3F-3T and stepped out of the following jump. Maybe Alina is getting to her as well! I CANNOT EVEN with all this!!
Actually, looking at top scores...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017–18_ISU_Grand_Prix_of_Figure_Skating#Total_score_2
Just saying, its interesting
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
Well, the last time Higuchi was on home ice, she (along with Mai) got a massive PCS boost at World Team Trophy, and then the subsequent non-Japanese competitions brought those scores back down to earth. Japan wants an Olympic medal contender (although, really, were Higuchi from any country she should deserve to be an Olympic medal contender, IMO)... and this is the perfect place to get that pre-Olympic home-ice GPF PCS boost, assuming she skates moderately well.
I wonder how many people who are quick to wail home inflation for the other Grand Prixs (Russia/Canada/US), will also hold the same standard with the GPF in Japan... I mean, that's what we do right? Claim home favouritism and shady results favoring home skaters, before the skaters even take the ice? :sarcasm:
On a side note: can't wait for Uno's PCS also being boosted on home ice and boosting his OGM odds that much further!
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2017
I think either Alina will win if Zhenya doesn't participate or Zhenya will win. I want Wakaba to be bronze though.
But yes I agree, Kostner should be last if that tech still sucks. I predicted her in third only because judges go nuts with her scores. Imagine the backlash Medvedeva would get if she performed that technical-level of programs and got Kostner's scores! :hslap:
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2016
A strong chance of Sotskova or Osmond finishing last. Sometimes, if the technical panel decides to, Sotskova gets UR calls; and I don’t think she receives +2 or +3 on her spins (correct me if I’m wrong). And with Osmond, well, you know.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
I actually think Kostner is the greatest risk of finishing last with her lower tech content.
Also, Zagitova isn't necessarily a 100% shoe in to win if Med WDs. She's fell in her past 3 short programs, and perhaps the judging in Japan will be more strict on her to better the chances of Wakaba (or Satoko, if she competes).
Well, the last time Higuchi was on home ice, she (along with Mai) got a massive PCS boost at World Team Trophy, and then the subsequent non-Japanese competitions brought those scores back down to earth. Japan wants an Olympic medal contender (although, really, were Higuchi from any country she should deserve to be an Olympic medal contender, IMO)... and this is the perfect place to get that pre-Olympic home-ice GPF PCS boost, assuming she skates moderately well.
I wonder how many people who are quick to wail home inflation for the other Grand Prixs (Russia/Canada/US), will also hold the same standard with the GPF in Japan... I mean, that's what we do right? Claim home favouritism and shady results favoring home skaters, before the skaters even take the ice? :sarcasm:
On a side note: can't wait for Uno's PCS also being boosted on home ice and boosting his OGM odds that much further!
Actually, everybody gets crazy scores at WTT, i wouldnt call it home inflation. You know, Medvedeva scoring 160 for example.
Japan is not really known for homecooking
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
I'd reiterate what I said before - I think Japan is doing it, although not as much as the 3 biggest federations. If you look at JO for example, Mai beat Alina in the LP and came within 5 points of beating Evgenia. I don't think that would have happened outside of Japan.
Obviously, both JO & WTT are also somewhat cheesefests though, so... we'll have to wait & see how it goes down at this GPF. I have to say that ahead - if Wakabas scores go up, it's deserved for me. Especially in CoC I think the judges didn't quite give her her due, especially on PCS. So any home/consistency/whatever boost there might only make things "right" (in a certain amount of course, obviously she shouldn't score perfect 40/80's).
As for the top GP scores, Alina needs to stop digging herself into a hole in the SP ^^"
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
It's not as bad as Russia, but Japan is still not above giving personal best PCS with an error.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/gpjpn2017/data0203.pdf
But yes, they are tougher on their own athletes moreso than the other GPs.
I also thought Wakaba's PCS at CoC were perfectly fine. It was Zagitova's that were way too high, which cost Wakaba the victory. I do think by the end of the season, with consistent skating, Wakaba should be a 70 PCS skater or really close.
- Joined
- Dec 29, 2011
Yep. You don't have to convince me that Japan isn't refusing to play the game at all there
I'm fine with saying Wakabas PCS were fine but Alinas too high (not just Alinas then though) - let me say it like that, I think compared to a lot of other top contenders, Wakabas PCS are not judged on the same level. I really doubt Alinas PCS will come down anytime soon though, not at the GPF either.
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2014
I really dont understand why so many think Wakaba is underscored in PCS. Its fine to say you like her programmes and her skating more than you like others, but to say she is underscored is just not true. Or if you want to say she is underscored comparing to Alina and Caro.. but that also is not true. Caro already scores highest PCS scores at last Olympic, even higher than YuNa and Adelina. Alinas PCS scores were already 30 in SP and 63 in FP during juniors. If you want to be objective then look at Wakabas scores in past 2 years. She was scored around 27 in sp and 57 in lp when competing in juniors. Then they rised her PCS to 29 and 63 in first senior year. And now they are 33 and 68. Basically her PCS scores rise more than 5 points in SP and more than 10 points in FP only in two years. And Zagitova scores didnt rise more than that. So, that narrative that Wakaba is underscored by judges is just wrong.
I think people who say “underscored” actually mean that the skater’s scores are lower than what they truly deserve. Thus, it doesn't matter what the skater’s history with PCS was. What matters is what they are receiving for their performances now.
As a fan of her, I think Wakaba’s PCS is about right. It’s just that many others are scoring higher than her when they shouldn’t be.
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2017
my answer is simply if evgenia participates she will win, if not alina has a good chance .so does the rest.
1. Medvedeva (She will participate, i don't think that her injury is too serious. 78 PCS won't surprise me)
2. Zagitova (Can score 75 in SP and 150+ in FS)
3. Kostner (will be saved by PCS as usual and ahead of a clean Higuhi. And i will definetely lose my faith in this sport)
4. Higuchi (Clean she can beat Osmond who never does a clean LP)
5.Osmond (Her LP will kill her)
6. Sotskova (Not the same réputation than the others russians and Urs issues)
2. Zagitova (Can score 75 in SP and 150+ in FS)
3. Kostner (will be saved by PCS as usual and ahead of a clean Higuhi. And i will definetely lose my faith in this sport)
4. Higuchi (Clean she can beat Osmond who never does a clean LP)
5.Osmond (Her LP will kill her)
6. Sotskova (Not the same réputation than the others russians and Urs issues)
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2014
But that is way to compare things - by her own performances from competitions to competitions. How would you objectively look at her skating in other way to got that kind of conclusions. And how is her right and others wrong when scores changed by similiar margin - there is an usual pattern of rises of scores and Wakaba's PCS even rises the most in current field. My point is that judges awarding the scores according to some written criteria, and this season it shows how judges think her skating is much better than her skating from 2 years ago. For what i think its not adequate to say how judges underscoring her, but ok :confused2:
