I just don't think Tuk is good enough. Her entry into the 3A was crawling to almost a standstill. I still don't get her scores and her spins are pretty mediocre. Yes she has 3A and textbook jumps but they aren't that high nor cover much distance. She's always been a question mark to me.
My thoughts are kinda like this... Those are the girls doing GP this season, and the 3 will be likely selected from them:
Stanislava Konstantinova
Evgenia Medvedeva
Daria Panenkova
Elena Radionova
Sofia Samodurova
Maria Sotskova
Polina Tsurskaya
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Alina Zagitova
#1/#2
Zagitova looks very solid so far, and based on what she showed, it is very unlikely she is out of the team.
Zhenya, while not so solid, is still doing well, and I do not see rusfed leaving her out of the team this year no matter what.
No spots:
Daria Panenkova and Elena Radionova had pretty meh outings so far. Lena, based on her past seasons, probably will not make it. Dasha, based on her current form, does not look like she will compete for the spots either.
Mishin:
Mishin got 2 skaters there, Sofia Samodurova and Elizaveta Tuktamysheva. Both have Mishin programs, but Tuktik has 3A, so if she is cleanish, she has a chance.
Buianova:
She got Maria Sotskova and Polina Tsurskaya. Out of those two, she will likely lobby for Masha, who is her long time student, and not for Polya, who showed up just now. Also, both struggle with URs, but Masha, i think, is more consistent.
Konstantinova... I have no clue. If rusfed keeps propping her, she has a chance, else nope.
So my thought here is that the #3 spot will go to one of the 3 girls - Tuktik, Masha or Stasya. This will be tricky because will depend on politics more than actual performances, unless one of them has a MAJOR meltdown at rusnats.
