2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

[MaiKatze]

If you look at who’s been able to peak strongly at Worlds, the number includes Javi, Yuzu, Shoma and Boyang. Maybe Mikhail if you count his debut fourth. To me Nathan is still unproven under big, big pressure. I expect him to excel at Nationals, but that’s not a high pressure situation for him. He and Shoma looked very beatable at the GPF. Of course, this year Javi has looked vulnerable and Yuzu is injured. But we know they can pull it out at the right moment.

If Kolyada skates clean, he’d be a deserving gold medalist. Not likely, but possible. In my opinion his best is better than Uno and Chen’s, but we’re less likely to see it. But it would be a splendid sight.

Yuzu’s health is a big question mark, but psychologically he’s in a good place. When his back is against the wall is when he really brings it.

Worlds is at the end of March, beginning of April, so timewise not the same as peaking at the Olympics. The date of 4CC last season was more similar. What is big, big pressure for you? Was 4CC not big, big pressure? Nathan crumbled at Worlds. But it was his debut Worlds, just one competition and it was extremely well skated by the others. Shoma was seventh in his debut Worlds in 2016, so is that a strong peak after a great debut season? In that case it is similar to Nathan. Nathan wasn't exactly stellar this season so far, but nonetheless he won every event he entered. He is not injured, young and on the rise. If there is a favourite at all, it's him.

 

[Bcash]

Javi' form doesn't look good at Nationals. Maybe he'll rebound for the Olympics, but I fear he's finding it hard to recapture that form that brought him Gold in 2016.

 

[TontoK]

Worlds is at the end of March, beginning of April, so timewise not the same as peaking at the Olympics. The date of 4CC last season was more similar. What is big, big pressure for you? Was 4CC not big, big pressure? Nathan crumbled at Worlds. But it was his debut Worlds, just one competition and it was extremely well skated by the others. Shoma was seventh in his debut Worlds in 2016, so is that a strong peak after a great debut season? In that case it is similar to Nathan. Nathan wasn't exactly stellar this season so far, but nonetheless he won every event he entered. He is not injured, young and on the rise. If there is a favourite at all, it's him.

My sense is that the judges will go with Shoma if both he and Nathan skate cleanly. I'm not sure why I think that, though.

Nathan's 4CC win last season was big, but in the larger picture it was significant in that it was in the Olympic arena.

If all are clean, I don't think Kolyada can beat either of them - but I'd love to see an Olympic event where they are all clean and the judges have to pick.

My gut says the GPF podium will be the Olympic podium - but not necessarily the same order.

PS. In this scenario I'm writing off Yuzu. When I see a "comeback" performance I might change my mind, but he's got to show me something first.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

If Kolyada skates clean, he’d be a deserving gold medalist. Not likely, but possible. In my opinion his best is better than Uno and Chen’s, but we’re less likely to see it. But it would be a splendid sight.

Agreed. Mika is IMO a more complete skater - his jumps have the best quality out of these 3, his Skating Skills to me are no worse then Shomas and better then Nathans, and while not on Yuzu/Javi/Pat level, I think his programs are still a bit more complex then those of the other 2. Plus, he's a charismatic performer when he's on. I'm not sure the judges would go with him, but I'd be happy if they did.

Javi had a mediocre showing at nationals, but he might be among those handling the pressure the best. He gets good GOE & PCS, so with a few minor mistakes, he could still sneak ahead. Patrick is a question mark to me, but he might have the same advantage Javi has - experience (& the wisdom that the Olympics are not the be all and end all of your life ), helping him to deliver when the 'youngsters' might not. And I see little sense in writing off Yuzu & Boyang because they are injured - as if the other healthy guys were lighting up the sky with super clean, momentum generating performances at the GPF. IMO, if they come back healthy, they have the same chances they had at the start of the season. Especially Yuzu, who hasn't been off the podium in 3 years - including competitions while injured or just barely coming back from bad injuries - is IMO still a podium favorite. But that said, I'm very fine with people writing him off. He doesn't need more attention & pressure then he already has, and who doesn't love a good, eh, surprise if he does come back kicking behinds

So bottom line: Olys are pretty open between what I'd think are now the top 7 men.

 

[tzazu]

Agreed. Mika is IMO a more complete skater - his jumps have the best quality out of these 3, his Skating Skills to me are no worse then Shomas and better then Nathans, and while not on Yuzu/Javi/Pat level, I think his programs are still a bit more complex then those of the other 2. Plus, he's a charismatic performer when he's on. I'm not sure the judges would go with him, but I'd be happy if they did.

Javi had a mediocre showing at nationals, but he might be among those handling the pressure the best. He gets good GOE & PCS, so with a few minor mistakes, he could still sneak ahead. Patrick is a question mark to me, but he might have the same advantage Javi has - experience (& the wisdom that the Olympics are not the be all and end all of your life ), helping him to deliver when the 'youngsters' might not. And I see little sense in writing off Yuzu & Boyang because they are injured - as if the other healthy guys were lighting up the sky with super clean, momentum generating performances at the GPF. IMO, if they come back healthy, they have the same chances they had at the start of the season. Especially Yuzu, who hasn't been off the podium in 3 years - including competitions while injured or just barely coming back from bad injuries - is IMO still a podium favorite. But that said, I'm very fine with people writing him off. He doesn't need more attention & pressure then he already has, and who doesn't love a good, eh, surprise if he does come back kicking behinds

So bottom line: Olys are pretty open between what I'd think are now the top 7 men.

:thumbsup:

 

[MaiKatze]

Javi' form doesn't look good at Nationals. Maybe he'll rebound for the Olympics, but I fear he's finding it hard to recapture that form that brought him Gold in 2016.

He scored 107 points with a fall in the SP. So did he at IdF. I believe he will hit 110 or more when he skates his SP clean at the Olympics. Let's wait for Europeans until we say his form is not there. He looked tired to me and not ready to give his everything at Nationals. Where it was hardly needed anyway. The judges will go with him. He doesn't even need to be squeaky clean in the FS, in my opinion - if Nathan and Shoma skate like at GPF his chances are pretty good. He beat both of them in the LP at Japan Open this season. It's doable.

 

[Mussique]

Frankly, if at the beginning of the season my overall view was something like "it's going to be pretty tight between the six top men, but we'll get a unforgettable season" now it's something like "it's going to be pretty tight between the seven top men and I sure as hell hope to forget all about this season as soon as possible".

I'm about 45% kidding. I'm still hoping they'll bring their best at Olympics.

And I wouldn't be so quick as to write anyone off!

 

[TontoK]

Well, I see I need to clarify:

I'm "writing off" Yuzu for the medals until he shows me something.

If, at Japanese Nationals, or 4CC or somewhere else, if he shows he's recovered from his injury and is ready to go, I'll put him back in the mix.

But, in discussions now, I'm trying to keep it real in an unpredictable sport. I'm not pegging him as a medal favorite when I have no idea of his physical condition.

Obviously, if he's at full steam, he's the favorite.

 

[MaiKatze]

Frankly, if at the beginning of the season my overall view was something like "it's going to be pretty tight between the six top men, but we'll get a unforgettable season" now it's something like "it's going to be pretty tight between the seven top men and I sure as hell hope to forget all about this season as soon as possible".

I'm about 45% kidding. I'm still hoping they'll bring their best at Olympics.

And I wouldn't be so quick as to write anyone off!

True, and that's why it's crucial to say 'At this point of the season, this is my podium guess'. The GP's and the GPF are over, it's half time and it's time to look back at the beginning of this thread and to see how things went completely different to what we all thought would happen. Timewise there is another 'GP cycle' left until the Olympics - so a lot can still happen.

 

[Mussique]

Just to clarify, I wasn't making any obscure references in my post, in fact, I found both your analysis pretty accurate and I agree with them so far —my "don't write anyone off" is mostly me thinking back past seasons, were the underdog won!
If anything, it was an "it's too soon to make assumptions" and "I'm not laughing I'm crying, what a season" type of post.

 

[Arriba627]

Javi' form doesn't look good at Nationals. Maybe he'll rebound for the Olympics, but I fear he's finding it hard to recapture that form that brought him Gold in 2016.

Has there been any info about Javi being injured? I certainly hope he isn't, but I remember reading after the FS at IdF that he was having a hip flexor problem.

 

[Tutto]

I am in two minds about Nathan - on one hand I want him to win because I think a scene in the K&C would be epic, on the other hand I fear that either Nathan might get smothered by Raf to death or Raf himself collapses not being able to handle all the excitement... either way wouldn't be good - we need Olympic drama but not the fatalities!

 

[da96103]

I am in two minds about Nathan - on one hand I want him to win because I think a scene in the K&C would be epic, on the other hand I fear that either Nathan might get smothered by Raf to death or Raf himself collapses not being able to handle all the excitement... either way wouldn't be good - we need Olympic drama but not the fatalities!

If Nathan skates last in Free Skate, and he wins, Nathan will be cool as a cucumber while Raffie will cry uncontrollably or jump repeatedly like Tara.

 

[Kelly]

I could see him win only if he's clean and everyone else makes mistakes. But has Kolyada ever skated two clean programs in one competition? The possibility of skating clean I see in Nathan, Shoma, Javier, Yuzuru and Boyang. Some of them are higher, some lower. Patrick Chan can skate clean, but I think it's been a while since he did. For Kolyada, I don't remember. And he's not at that level yet where he can beat the other top men with mistakes. Adelina was clean and Russian in Russia. There is a small chance for Mikhail, but personally I would say it's less than 5%. Podium is a different story, though. Doable.

Mikhail could have won GPF this year if he just had hung on (even just hand down) to a couple of his quads.
Last year, his PCS dropped a lot when he made mistakes but not this year.
So to me at this point, the Olympic Gold could be anyone of the top six at Worlds 2017 plus Mikhail.

 

[xeyra]

Mikhail could have won GPF this year if he just had hung on (even just hand down) to a couple of his quads.
Last year, his PCS dropped a lot when he made mistakes but not this year.
So to me at this point, the Olympic Gold could be anyone of the top six at Worlds 2017 plus Mikhail.

I actually didn't expect something like this at the end of the first half of the season. I expected the season and the GPF to give more of a clue on who might be a frontrunner for the Olympics but outside of Shoma having a stellar first couple of competitions where he hit 300+ total score, everyone has sort of underperformed or not yet hit their strides or been injured since then. The GPF didn't actually give us any idea of who might be the favorite for OGM, unless you are US media and Nathan's undefeated in the GP status means he's it. At this point, it's really anyone's guess who might actually podium, let alone win, and this was not what I expected at the end of 2017...

Of course, if either Shoma or Nathan or both have stellar Nationals performances (or Mikhail/Patrick), then things might change.

 

[MaiKatze]

Mikhail could have won GPF this year if he just had hung on (even just hand down) to a couple of his quads.
Last year, his PCS dropped a lot when he made mistakes but not this year.
So to me at this point, the Olympic Gold could be anyone of the top six at Worlds 2017 plus Mikhail.

The fact remains though, that he is rarely clean and usually his mistakes are disruptive falls. And when he skated that great SP at CoC, his LP was horrible, he wasn't able to deliver. Yes, he could've won the GPF. But he didn't. He skated second to last and had seen Nathan's less than stellar skate. He didn't know how Shoma would skate but he was just 2 little points behind Shoma and what did he do? I just don't see him skate without mistakes. He's a contender and everything is possible at the Olympic Games, so even Kolyada winning it all. I'm curious how they'll score him and Fernandez at Europeans. If Kolyada manages to become European Champion in January I'm probably going to change my tune, because if he's Europe's hope, then his scores will be through the roof.

 

[tureis]

Has there been any info about Javi being injured? I certainly hope he isn't, but I remember reading after the FS at IdF that he was having a hip flexor problem.

I haven't heard about any injuries. He was rubbing his knees during practice but he has been doing that for a while now, so whatever is going on there is presumably business as usual for Javi by now. But I have to say it was the coldest rink I've ever been to. It was 10-11 °C inside on Saturday which dropped down to as low as 8-9 on Sunday for the FS after a rather chilly night in Jaca. The skaters were doing everything they could to keep themselves warm while they were waiting for the scores of the ones before them. Javi was rubbing his hands and breathing on his fingers and kept massaging his thighs to keep himself from cooling down too much. He was also visibly fighting for breath by the 2nd half and was really struggling to pull himself together in the K&C. Either he has some stamina issue or just Jaca being in the mountains at pretty high altitude, much higher up in any case than his training base in Toronto, may have come into play during the FS. Or simply whatever has been going on with him mentally that's resulted in these mediocre FS performances has not been sorted out yet. His SP performances on the other hand have been very impressive for a while now (with COC as the obvious outlier), so who knows really what to make of all this...

 

[Arriba627]

^^^Thank you for your report. How wonderful to be there in person! Those high altitude rinks can be tough, so maybe that accounts for some of the stamina issue. Hopefully they had a lot of hot chocolate and coffee on hand!

 

[MaiKatze]

I'm curious on what Nathan and Patrick will show the World at their Nationals and if one of them decides to show up at 4CC. Shoma Uno is going to 4CC and is going back to a 4 Quad layout in the free. 44 Days to go!

 

[Crossover]

I'm curious on what Nathan and Patrick will show the World at their Nationals and if one of them decides to show up at 4CC. Shoma Uno is going to 4CC and is going back to a 4 Quad layout in the free. 44 Days to go!

I'm wondering about their current form, especially Patrick's as he's been away from competition since Skate Canada. However, I don't think any of the skaters will compete at 4CC because both already won the title and their National schedules are too close to 4CC. They also need to prepare for Team Event as well. It's quite possible that both compete in both SP and FS for the Team Event. The jet lag and traveling distance will be also big problems for them unlike Boyang and Shoma, both of which live very close to South Korea.