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2019 Worlds: Ladies' Pregame Chat
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- Dec 13, 2016
Oooh, awesome! I love her. Thanks, I'll update.Galustyan actually just got 64 at Universiade!
Not to drag Jason who I love, but ET has at least rotated it (albeit falling both times).
It will be interesting to see how her attempt goes here.
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The rest of her jumps at Universiade were jaw-dropping. Dang, girl!
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You've been busy Kevin! Thx for doing that. Very interesting!
Rotated?
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Alina isn’t at Worlds yet. Evgenia and Sofia are there and they are currently in practice.
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I hope Alina is okay? Is it too late to replace her with Liza? Is Liza ready?
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She always comes late doesn't she?
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Looks like Eteri has not made it yet. I asked Jackie Wong who Elizabet was with in practice (bc Eteri coaches her) and he had said she was only with her mother. I except Eteri to come with Alina maybe tonight or tomorrow morning (Japan time). Quite possibly tonight to avoid some jet lag and to attend the practices.
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She was very close before and rotated it twice. I‘d say it‘s pretty realistic.
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I made some predictions of who will qualify through to the FS based on the SP scores for this season.
Watch out for flying pigs if they don't qualify:
1. Alina ZAGITOVA (RUS)
2. Rika KIHIRA (JPN)
3. Satoko MIYAHARA (JPN)
4. Bradie TENNELL (USA)
5. Sofia SAMODUROVA (RUS)
6. Mariah BELL (USA)
7. Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA (KAZ)
8. Evgenia MEDVEDEVA (RUS)
9. Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)
10. LIM Eun-soo (KOR)
The above skaters have a SP average ranging from 76 - 66. I'd imagine that even with major mistakes, these skaters will make it through to the FS.
Good odds to qualify:
11. Loena HENDRICKX (BEL)
12. Nicole RAJICOVA (SVK)
13. Alexia PAGANINI (SUI)
14. Gabrielle DALEMAN (CAN)
15. Kailani CRAINE (AUS)
16. Laurine LECAVELIER (FRA)
17. Emmi PELTONEN (FIN)
All of the above skaters have a SP average between 63 - 57. Paganini has looked really strong this season. Daleman is a wild card, because she only skated in one Challenger and then Canadian Nationals (where she did well enough in the SP). But after all, she is Gabrielle Daleman! Rajicova is also a bit of a wild card, but her SP has looked strong when she's competed this season. Not sure about Hendrickx, as she's just coming back from injury. Lecavelier should be an easy Q (SB of 63+), but her SP at the Cup of Tyrol earlier this month was a mess and she only scored a 52 -- which maybe wouldn't be enough to make the cut, depending.
Above average odds to qualify:
18. Ivett TOTH (HUN)
19. Nicole SCHOTT (GER)
These two skaters have a SP average in the 55 - 53 range. Looks like the cut off should be somewhere between 51 - 54. Toth has been consistently around 55 this season -- but you never know with this kid! They are both known entities, which as we all know will inevitably make a difference in the PCS.
May qualify:
20. Ekaterina RYABOVA (AZE)
21. Yi Christy LEUNG (HKG)
22. Alexandra FEIGIN (BUL)
23. Eliska BREZINOVA (CZE)
24. Alaine CHARTRAND (CAN)
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25. Marina PIREDDA (ITA)
26. CHEN Hongyi (CHN)
These skaters also have SP averages in the 55 - 53 range. Ryabova, Feigin, and Chartrand at their best will absolutely qualify. But, they've been all over the map. At their worst, they almost certainly won't. Leung has a good chance, but she's not really well-known on the senior circuit. Brezinova has generally been scoring around 55, and the judges always seem to go with her PCS-wise. Her SP at Universiade only scored 50+, however. Piredda and Chen should be on the bubble if they deliver. A lot will also come down to luck of the draw and start order. With 40 competitors, this is going to make a huge difference.
Less likely to qualify:
27. Anastasia GALUSTYAN (ARM)
28. Aurora COTOP (CAN)
29. Roberta RODEGHIERO (ITA)
30. Isadora WILLIAMS (BRA)
31. Pernille SORENSEN (DEN)
32. Anita OSTLUND (SWE)
33. Julia SAUTER (ROM)
34. Dasa GRM (SLO)
The above skaters have SP averages in the 52 - 50 range. If Galustyan hits like at Universiade (64+), she will definitely be in. But her scores have been more often in the high 40's - low 50's. The judges usually seem to go really hard on her too. If Cotop delivers, it looks like she has a really good shot. Maybe she has more of a shot than I'm giving her credit for? (46+ at her JGP assignment and 55+ at the Bavarian Open in February.) Hard to tell! Ostlund has probably the highest scoring potential of the group, but I wouldn't count on seeing it this season. Williams has been having a really rough season and doesn't seem likely to get out of the low 50's, although she had 53+ at the Mentor Torun Cup in January. Sorensen has ranged between 48 - 55 this season, but only scored 50 at Euros. If Sauter repeats what she did at Euros and also has a good draw, she could sneak in -- same could be said of Grm. Rodeghiero has a SB of 55+, but she's been scoring in the 49 - 52 range recently. Her reputation may help her PCS (but with that SP she'll need a lot of help).
Long shots to qualify:
35. Eva Lotta KIIBUS (EST)
36. Natasha McKAY (GBR)
37. Kyarla VAN TIEL (NED)
38. Valentina MATOS (ESP)
39. Elzbieta KROPA (LTU)
40. Sophia SCHALLER (AUT)
These skaters have SP averages in the 40s. Kiibus did lay down a 56+ at the Tallink Hotels Cup, and seems to stand the best chance. Van Tiel had a 54+ at the Challenge Cup; Matos had a 52. McKay had a 53+ at the Golden Bear last October. Generally though, they've all struggled to crack 50, and it would be a surprise if one of them qualified. However, I sure hope one of them has the skate of her life and makes it through. Let's go Season's Best!
Looks like there are about 18 skaters who could nab those last seven spots. I always love an underdog and can't wait to see how this all shakes out.
Thanks for this! Natasha McKay has added a 3Lz to her programs to I expect her score to rise but it might not be enough.
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Alaine, Gabby and Aurora! Fingers crossed for clean skates you can all be proud of!
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If Aurora can do the 3T-3T successfully in the SP, that would really help her chances at qualifying for the FS. She got her tech minimums with a 3T-2T, and that's what she did at Nationals, but now she's starting doing the 3-3 in practice here (it's been absent since her pelvis injury).
I hope Marina Piredda qualify, she is getting better this second half of the season.
Rooting for Tursynbaeva on the podium.
The last attempt she did at Universiade was very close to land, i think both have good chances to land it.
Rooting for Tursynbaeva on the podium.
The last attempt she did at Universiade was very close to land, i think both have good chances to land it.
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Other than Rika is a podium lock, at least 5 other skaters (Alina, Sofia, Elizabet, Kaori, Satoko) are podium quality, followed by Bradie and Evgenia
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