2019 Worlds: Men's Pregame Chat

[Tavi...]

The 4F in the SP of US Nats is exactly the same score of 4.40 GOE as his GPF which you missed in your analysis by the way, for example.

So it is true in a general sense which oly2018 alluded to. Yes, the 4F in the FS is higher but we can account both in a national inflation but again the jump was done better than before so the GOE should be higher.

Of course their are national inflation but it isnt like those jumps were not done well. They were done very very very well and the best he has ever done.

To assume that he didn't check off boxes is your opinion. The judges both international and national says he does. When Nathan skates clean and done perfectly, the judges say he deserves +4/+5. And that is what matters.

Averaging GOEs at different events with different judges with different tech panels with different competitors at different times (later vs beginning of the season) is not accurate.

For example, Skate America had the toughest caller on any event so far while later they were lighter on the calls.

Worlds last year saw Nathan do very well at both high GOEs and PCs so it is possible for him. And continue to grow.

And what matters is he is growing and gotten a lot better and hope he continues to grow not just this current event but in the future as well. (I wish that for all skaters).

But it depends on what each skater puts out at that moment in the end. Are they clean? Is the 3A ok, good, perfect? We will see.

I dont know how Nathan will do at Worlds or Hanyu or Shoma or Jason or Matteo or Zhu or Cha. I have to see what they put out and what they do at that MOMENT if they do their jumps perfectly or they didn't.

I hope they all do well. I want them all to be clean (but that unrealistic). It is going to be a great competition and look forward to how they perform.

I hope there is more events like this where the battle is on. It makes it really exciting.

I agree that Nathan has grown a lot since last year, thought he did very well at Nats, and like you, hope he and all the guys you mentioned do well at Worlds.

Regarding the 4F at GPF versus Nats:

GPF: SP 3.77, FS 4.40
Nats: SP 4.40, FS 5.03

So it appears that both sets of judges felt his 4F was better in the FS than in the SP, but in each case, the judges at Nats scored him significantly higher.

You’re right that it’s only my opinion that Nathan doesn’t check the boxes for +4/+5 GOE. Nathan usually gets good height and distance on his jumps (1), but IMO his jumps rarely look effortless (2) and the landings aren’t always great (tilted, landed forward, lack flow out) (3). I’m not saying he never has good landings or effortless jumps, but IMO he misses those things pretty often. And unless his jumps have all three of those bullet points, under the rules he shouldn’t be getting more than +3 at the most. If you look at his FS protocol for the 2018 GPF, for example, other than the 4F, he did not get very high GOE. Again, not saying he can’t, but he didn’t there. As to PCS, while I do think Nathan has improved significantly in this area and I actually really like his programs this year, again IMO, his PCS at Nats, especially in the FS, was...absurd. There is no other way to put it. There is a huge gap between the FS PCS he got at Nats (98.50) and what he got at Worlds 2018 (91.84) and GPF 2018 (88.64). I admit I’m demanding, but I just don’t think it was an almost perfect performance, which is what 98.50 implies to me. JMO.

In any case, I do hope Nathan and all our guys do well this week!

 

[Bonesfan]

I have not braved the labyrinth that is Yuzaru's FF since he last competed when he stood on the podium on crutches... so am wondering how he is now... fully healed? And physically strong? Best of everything to him in this comp .. I will watch with bated breath!!! Good Luck!!:luv17:

Interspectator shared on the Yuzuru's FF
translations on twitter and Olympic Channel blog

Ankle has not recovered completely, but he prepared as best as he could.

 

[TallyT]

The practice today was something else... the crowd just for that, for the men especially, was amazing...

Edited because we've now got a tweet with the numbers.

3221 people turned up for a practice.

 

[Yuzuruu]

The practice today was something else... the crowd just for that, for the men especially, was amazing...

Edited because we've now got a tweet with the numbers.

3221 people turned up for a practice.

Remarkable what ONE SINGLE person can do...:luv17:

 

[DSQ]

I made some predictions of who will qualify through to the FS based on the SP scores for this season. I tried to be as comprehensive as I could -- please feel free to correct me if I stated anything wrong. One thing is sure: the men's field is packed with talent this year. I'd think it would be a major upset if any of the top 23 didn't qualify, and there are only 24 spots to fill in the FS.

Watch out for flying pigs if they don't qualify:
1. Yuzuru HANYU (JPN)
2. Shoma UNO (JPN)
3. Nathan CHEN (USA)
4. CHA Jun-hwan (KOR)
5. Jason BROWN (USA)
6. Michal BREZINA (CZE)
7. JIN Boyang (CHN)
8. Mikhail KOLYADA (RUS)
9. Alexander SAMARIN (RUS)
10. Keegan MESSING (CAN)

The above skaters have a SP average ranging from 105 - 85. I'd imagine that even with major mistakes, these skaters will make it through to the FS. Hanyu, Uno, and Kolyada have cracked 100 this year -- along with Vincent Zhou, who's average is somewhat lower than this group due to inconsistency. Kolyada is also the skater with the lowest floor -- as low as 69 this year. If the cut off is between 65 - 70, I'd imagine he'd still probably make it through with a repeat of that performance.

Good odds to qualify:
11. Matteo RIZZO (ITA)
12. Keiji TANAKA (JPN)
13. Deniss VASILJEVS (LAT)
14. Morisi KVITELASHVILI (GEO)
15. Nam NGUYEN (CAN)
16. Vincent ZHOU (USA)
17. Kevin AYMOZ (FRA)
18. Andrei LAZUKIN (RUS)
19. Alexander MAJOROV (SWE)
20. Daniel SAMOHIN (ISR)

All of the above skaters have a SP average between 80 - 77. All of these skaters will probably make it through even with a mistake, but might find themselves vulnerable with major mistakes. Rizzo has been strong and consistent this season, and he broke 90 at the Universiade. Tanaka is the most solid he's been in recent memory, consistently scoring in the 84 - 77+ range. Vasiljevs and Samohin are the other skaters in this group who haven't gone below 70 all season. But I'd still call Samohin a major wild card because you just never know. (Hopefully those crazy days are behind him for now!) Kvitelashvili and Nguyen have looked solid this season as well. Zhou has the highest ceiling (100+) and the lowest floor (61+); the judges always hit him hard if he struggles with URs. Aymoz, Lazukin, and Majorov should be easily in, but all of them have outlier scores in the low 60's. Aymoz looked really strong at Euros, and Lazukin had 88+ at Universiade. Majorov, on the other hand, had 60 at the Nordics in February. Zhou, Rizzo, Lazukin, and Samohin have all cracked 90+.

Above average odds to qualify:
21. Paul FENTZ (GER)
22. Brendan KERRY (AUS)
23. Alexei BYCHENKO (ISR)

These three skaters have a SP average in the 75 - 70 range. Looks like the cut off should be somewhere between 65 - 70. Fentz has been consistently scoring between 69 - 78; Kerry a bit more inconsistent between 65 - 81. Bychenko started off the season with a debacle at Finlandia, where he scored 46+ (the lowest score of any competitor in this field this season). However, he was coming back from injury and has looked stronger recently, with an 84 at Euros and a 78 at the Ice Mall Cup in February. These skaters are all also well-known on the senior circuit, will have a later starting order and higher PCS.

May qualify:
24. Vladimir LITVINTSEV (AZE)
________________________________
25. Ivan SHMURATKO (UKR)
26. Donovan CARRILLO (MEX)
27. Julian Zhi Jie YEE (MAS)
28. Luc MAIERHOFER (AUT)
29. Peter James HALLAM (GBR)

These skaters have SP averages in the 70 - 65 range. Any of them could easily take that 24th spot. Litvintsev seems to have the best chance because he's been the most consistent (73+ - 66 range). Yee achieved the highest score in this group (81+), but that was at the beginning of the season at Skate America. Recently, he's been in the low 60's which wouldn't be enough to qualify. Maierhofer has gone above 70 this season, but has been in the low 60's recently as well. Carrillo had 71 at 4CC. Shmuratko had 67 at Euros and has shown higher scoring potential than the others -- 76 at Volvo Open Cup and 73 at Bosphorus Cup -- but those were in November. Hallam has been really consistent, but his high score of 68+ is lower than others in the group. A lot will probably come down to start order.

Less likely to qualify:
30. Lukas BRITSCHGI (SUI)
31. Aleksandr SELEVKO (EST)
32. Slavik HAYRAPETYAN (ARM)

The three above skaters have SP averages in the 62 - 60 range. Britschgi had 70 at Challenge Cup, but has also gone as low as 55 this season. Selevko almost cracked 70 at Euros (69.90), while Hayrapetyan smashed the 70 marked at Universiade, scoring 78+. If he repeats, he'll definitely be in. Any of these guys will most likely qualify if they reach their potential, but definitely won't qualify if they give a performance more typical of their season so far.

Long shots to qualify:
33. Burak DEMIRBOGA (TUR)
34. Valtter VIRTANEN (FIN)
35. Igor REZNICHENKO (POL)

These skaters have SP averages in the mid 50's. While they've each done it, it's been a struggle for them to crack 60 this season. An outlier is Reznichenko's 76+ at the Minsk Arena Ice Star. More recently though, he's scored in the 50's at both Euros in January and the Dragon Trophy (54) in February. Virtannen had a 62 recently at Cup of Tyrol; Demirboga had 60+ at Universiade. Definitely wouldn't be enough to qualify in this strong field.

Wishing everybody the best! Rooting for the underdogs, as always. Should be a nail-biter.

Thank you again for posting this.

It’d be a shame if Yee didn’t qualify but I have to admit I’m a bit biased here. PJ Hallam doesn’t have an official ISU SB for this season so it’d be lovely if he could get one here. Hopefully next season BIS (fka NISA) isn’t stingy with the assignments and we see him at Lombardia or something but for now this is his only chance.

 

[yude]

Remarkable what ONE SINGLE person can do...:luv17:

To be fair in this thread, there were other skaters in the practice and their fans were there, too But of course, I don't deny many people (including media) in the arena were waiting for Yuzuru's return

 

[elbkup]

Interspectator shared on the Yuzuru's FF
translations on twitter and Olympic Channel blog

Ankle has not recovered completely, but he prepared as best as he could.

Thank you for this... fans mean alot to him; he has a good heart... :luv17:

 

[deedee1]

Literally Nathan's to lose this season if he can repeat a-la-US Nats' performances, however, it will be just wonderful if Shoma can snatch it in front of the home crowds! arty:

Good luck to all boys!

 

[kevinVchicago]

Thank you again for posting this.

It’d be a shame if Yee didn’t qualify but I have to admit I’m a bit biased here. PJ Hallam doesn’t have an official ISU SB for this season so it’d be lovely if he could get one here. Hopefully next season BIS (fka NISA) isn’t stingy with the assignments and we see him at Lombardia or something but for now this is his only chance.

You're welcome! I don't know what's been going on with Yee, but he's definitely been in some sort of funk. He totally has the potential to qualify. Never seen Hallam before -- looking forward to it.

 

[DSQ]

You're welcome! I don't know what's been going on with Yee, but he's definitely been in some sort of funk. He totally has the potential to qualify. Never seen Hallam before -- looking forward to it.

He’s great, here’s a video of him realising he’s qualified for worlds: https://youtu.be/_MHV5U6kgaU

I do think Graham is an overall better skater and I like him better but PJ is very charming and very consistent, he’ll do well with the crowd. Great spins as well.

I really wish Graham was here but if he can’t be I’m really happy PJ can have this awesome moment. He’s a lovely skater.

 

[shine]

Remarkable what ONE SINGLE person can do...:luv17:

FYI This is not the Yuzuru Hanyu ff. Lol.

 

[el henry]

FYI This is not the Yuzuru Hanyu ff. Lol.

Huh? Nor is it the Nathan Chen FF, LOL, or the Shoma Uno FF, or any other FF.

The fact remains that a practice rink was *packed*, and if wasn’t packed because Nathan, Boyang, or any other skater was there.

They were there for Yuzu. It is amazing what one skater can do.

 

[shine]

Huh? Nor is it the Nathan Chen FF, LOL, or the Shoma Uno FF, or any other FF.

The fact remains that a practice rink was *packed*, and if wasn’t packed because Nathan, Boyang, or any other skater was there.

They were there for Yuzu. It is amazing what one skater can do.

I don’t see anyone else making claims such as “look what one single person can do” as if they knew for a fact all the people in the audience came just to see that one person. So what point are you trying to make by bringing up other skaters fan threads? This kind of exaggeration is better suited for a fan thread where reality checks are discouraged. How do you know for a fact that they were ALL there for Hanyu? It’s presumptuous and disrespectful to other skaters who are also competing here and who also have extensive fan bases.

 

[Mrs. P]

While I’m sure fans were there for other skaters I don’t think it’s inaccurate to say that Yuzu is a big draw, especially in Japan. You can see that with him in other international sites like Helsinki and Moscow, but it would of course be most apparent in his home country.

I mean Olympic Channel practically devoted 3/4 of its live blog to Hanyu. Okay maybe not everyone was there for Hanyu, but I don’t think there’s a need to downplay his impact.

ETA: I have to say it was nice to see Yuzu again. I saw some television coverage of his Otonal step sequence and I have to say it made me excited to see it again!

 

[DSQ]

I don’t see anyone else making claims such as “look what one single person can do” as if they knew for a fact all the people in the audience came just to see that one person. So what point are you trying to make by bringing up other skaters fan threads? This kind of exaggeration is better suited for a fan thread where reality checks are discouraged. How do you know for a fact that they were ALL there for Hanyu? It’s very presumptuous and disrespectful to other skaters who are also competing here and who also have extensive fan bases.

Who cares at this point? All will be decided soon. Let’s hope for a good competition.

 

[century2009]

Huh? Nor is it the Nathan Chen FF, LOL, or the Shoma Uno FF, or any other FF.

The fact remains that a practice rink was *packed*, and if wasn’t packed because Nathan, Boyang, or any other skater was there.

They were there for Yuzu. It is amazing what one skater can do.

Did you take attendance? I mean come on. Have some respect for other skaters. Go to the fan thread for that.

The audience would be there even if Hanyu was NOT there. This is the World Championship and the biggest event of the year for figure skating whether Hanyu is there or not the audience would still be pack watching the different skaters on the biggest stage of the year for figure skating.

 

[merrywidow]

You don't think any of these fans are there in support of Uno? That's a pity. He's more than earned their support.

 

[Mrs. P]

Obviously there are fan bases of other skaters at Worlds, but Yuzuru arguably has the largest fan base out there. I don’t see why it’s a slam to other skaters to note that.

That fan base, including many folks who post here, has been deprived of his presence for some four months. Let people have their soft moment.

Anyway to shift gears, I’m excited and nervous about this competition cause there are easily 15 different men who could finish in the top 10 (and top 12 for 2 GP spots).

 

[el henry]

This has nothing to do with respect for skaters. Or who is a good skater. Or who is the better skater.
Or which skaters are popular in Japan. (As everyone knows, I :luv17: Jason and Jason is pretty darn popular in Japan).

It has to do with why the men’s practice was packed. Not every single person, of course, but why it was packed. And even though I am not a super fan of Yuzu, my opinion remains that he is the primary reason why the rink was packed. I acknowledge the fact of his popularity and his attraction.

That is all

ETA: and I used the skaters I used out of respect to them, seeing them as the contenders for the gold medal.

 

[Mrs. P]

I am a bit salty that Yuzuru is in the practice group before the US men and Jun and hence all the media went to a news conference with team Japan depriving us of content of those skaters.

So far ive seem two photos of Jason and a blurry Jun in the background of a Yuzu photo.