2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Shayuki]

I think that the reason people think Anna is most likely to lose her quads is because of how she manages to get them around. She hunches over on the takeoff a lot, and really wrenches her arms. Her prerotation is quite excessive, and she has always been a bit of a flutzer. If she grows and becomes more womanly, which she will as she is only 16, she will need strength to get enough height to balance both her strength to weight ratio and her body proportions for the air position. Not saying it can't be done, but for someone who is much less pubescent like Sasha (and who has always been taller and will get taller and curvier as her mom) I guess at least Sasha has a real lutz, slightly less prerotation, and more strength. Anna is relying on having a small frame and being light, while Sasha is relying on her small frame and lightness as well, but also he incredible ability to use her muscle and be so athletic and just idk, jump. This isn't meant to be mean to Anna, and I'm not sure how to say it. But whenever people talk about Eteri's girls not having good or sustainable jump technique, maybe it's true of Sasha's quads especially seeing how petite she is now but that's about it. I mean she of course, like many others, uses a slight full blade on some of her toe jumps (which is worrying for when she grows) or a little too much prerotation, but she had correct edges and good takeoff and landing positions. Now one may say that she has more to grow than Anna and is already becoming inconsistent but something about it tells me that in the long run, Sasha's quads will outlive Anna's, even if neither really sustains itself.

This is just my opinion and take on things please be respectful, no harm or disrespect meant to anybody

Yeah, some interesting things here. First off, Anna has a bit of a Lip, not a bit of a Flutz.

As for the 4Lutz jump, Anna doesn't pre-rotate more than Trusova, in fact not only does Trusova pre-rotate more, she also immediately begins her rotation, whereas Anna does an actual delayed aerial rotation on her 4Lutz.

Anna doesn't rely on being light and small, she relies on being powerful. It's pretty ridiculous to say that the only thing required for jumping high is being light and small. Yeah, that's why all the long and high jumpers are light and small. Wait, what? That's what you could say of someone who gets no power on her jumps, like you could have criticized Radionova of that when she emerged to the scene. I'd also like to inform you that when I did air time measurements on the 4Lutz jumps, Anna was either even or slightly ahead of Trusova in 4Lutz air time, meaning she jumps at least as high.

As of right now, Anna has the strongest aerial position out of all ladies, only Akatieva might have a better aerial position. She also is clearly faster at rotating than Trusova, etc. And no, just being small and light doesn't make one rotate fast. That, indeed, is about being powerful as well.

 

[Fried]

As of right now, Anna has the strongest aerial position out of all ladies, only Akatieva might have a better aerial position. She also is clearly faster at rotating than Trusova, etc. And no, just being small and light doesn't make one rotate fast. That, indeed, is about being powerful as well.

And of course there is also the fact that, as we now all know, she has the strongest character, the most iron will and the highest work ethic of all skaters worldwide.

What is certain, however, is that it is completely wrong to speak of "right now", because right now nobody knows what the girls' technique is like after 3 months off ice.

 

[colormyworld240]

The quick rotation speed comes from excellent air position, not size. Anna rotates very quickly because of how tight and straight she is in the air. There are many younger skaters who are much smaller than Anna and they don't have that rotation speed. Even when Evgenia, Alina, Sasha, and Alena were younger, they didn't have the same speed because they were all more loose in the air. There is a reason why air position is also a GOE bullet. Anna will probably lose some of that rotation speed when she grows, but so will everyone else, and they can all lose some height and distance as well. But she still has the best air position so she will likely have that above all the others, just like how Sasha has her 4T jump height advantage. But it just depends on who is the luckiest and grows the least, or goes through the most gradual growth as opposed to quick growth. It doesn't matter so much who can keep all their jumps, just how much they can keep relative to each other. If the goal is to win a competition ie the Olympics, relativity is much more important than absolute records. And fair or not, puberty is not equal for everyone and some will be luckier than others.

 

[brakes]

As of right now, Anna has the strongest aerial position out of all ladies, only Akatieva might have a better aerial position. She also is clearly faster at rotating than Trusova, etc. And no, just being small and light doesn't make one rotate fast. That, indeed, is about being powerful as well.

Shcherbakova and Akatieva - two skaters I predict longer careers for.

 

[Alex65]

Pre-season predictions are the most accurate predictions (remembering the past season)

 

[starlight97]

The only thing I would be willing to bet on right now is that not all 3 of Anna, Alena, Alexandra will be at the olympics. Neither will Alina or Evgenia. And that Eteri's current juniors will take either one or two of the 3 spots.

 

[brakes]

The only thing I would be willing to bet on right now is that not all 3 of Anna, Alena, Alexandra will be at the olympics. Neither will Alina or Evgenia. And that Eteri's current juniors will take either one or two of the 3 spots.

So which 'A' do you predict Kamila beats on her way to the Olympic national team?

 

[starlight97]

So which 'A' do you predict Kamila beats on her way to the Olympic national team?

I'm not predicting anything, it's just what I would bet if I had to bet right now. About which of the 3 I think won't make it, no idea. It's really impossible to say. But from watching this group for the past 7 years I think we can all agree that statistically at least one of them will get lost along the way, the way being puberty.
They would be 18 and 19 in Tokyo wouldn't they?
I'd not be surprised either if the olympic team consisted of Maya, Darya and Kamila.

Right now obviously Sasha is the one who's the weakest but that can change in a second if she gets her quads under control.
I honestly have a bad feeling that my Alena might start struggling soon, although I'm praying that her spring and height on the jumps and the fact that she doesn't rely as much on that jerking upper body twist as Eteri's other skaters, will help her prevail.

 

[plushyfan]

^^ Beijing? Tokyo is irrelevant for them

 

[GINO]

So which 'A' do you predict Kamila beats on her way to the Olympic national team?

I guess it will be Alena. Yes, at this stage it looks incredible, since she won all international competitions, but she will be 18.5 years old by the Olympics and now she showing her maximum while other girls have a great potential for increasing scores. She is also more often than others prone to injurys

 

[starlight97]

^^ Beijing? Tokyo is irrelevant for them

That's what I meant, yes.

 

[Alex65]

...
Right now obviously Sasha is the one who's the weakest .... .

I love these predictions. Gives hope.

 

[Arbitrary]

Would anyone dare to call the four quads girl the weakest one just two years ago?

 

[SkateSkates]

I think history has shown that whoever is predicted as “weak” usually ends up having great success, so I don’t think we can really make predictions based on what we think right now with any accuracy.

Alina = weak in winter 2019, won worlds 2019
Aliona = weak in summer 2019, won all international competitions this season
Anna = weak in fall 2019, won Russian Nationals for the 2nd year in a row
Sasha = weak in winter 2019....who knows what would’ve happened at worlds, or what will happen next season.

 

[Happy Skates]

They would be 18 and 19 in Tokyo wouldn't they?
I'd not be surprised either if the olympic team consisted of Maya, Darya and Kamila.

They will be 17/18 (Alena) . I think there's no way to predict what will happen. These girls are not comparable to Yulia (I'm not talking about skill level, I'm just talking about their overall situation), or even Alina/Evgenia. There are way more factors at play this time. Its hard to know what will happen, but I think it will be the best fight of all time. Anyways, I think that if Kamila ends up beating one of the 3A, it will be because she rose to the occasion, and not because one of them fizzled out. If you compare each of their first junior seasons, Kamila has already scored and done better than any of them. So if she beats one of them it will be because she is just that special, even though the 3A are already extremely special themselves.

 

[brakes]

Also:
2016 Junior Nationals - Alina Zagitova 9th place
2018 Junior Nationals - Anna Shcherbakova 13th place

 

[Fried]

Anna doesn't rely on being light and small, she relies on being powerful. It's pretty ridiculous to say that the only thing required for jumping high is being light and small. Yeah, that's why all the long and high jumpers are light and small. Wait, what? That's what you could say of someone who gets no power on her jumps, like you could have criticized Radionova of that when she emerged to the scene. I'd also like to inform you that when I did air time measurements on the 4Lutz jumps, Anna was either even or slightly ahead of Trusova in 4Lutz air time, meaning she jumps at least as high.

I have to come back to this post because it is simply factually wrong. Of course, weight and slimness are NOT ONLY important, but ALSO. And definitely crucial! You don't have to have a clue about figure skating. This is simply physics and it works according to irrefutable laws and applies to everyone, not just Anna.
With the same jumping force used, the jumping height of a light person is higher. With the same rotational force applied, a light and slim body better overcomes the inertia and consequently turns more and faster in the same period.
I am surprised that something well known is even up for discussion.

Otherwise, you should also look outside the box (i.e. golden skate) to see how the whole quad problem is otherwise assessed.
https://www.instagram.com/p/CBvbUDAJhw1/?igshid=bf7iqgjyj1b5

 

[GINO]

If you compare each of their first junior seasons, Kamila has already scored and done better than any of them.

Not better than Sasha. She also won all competitions in her first junior season and, unlike Kamila landed 2 clean quads. Scores are also comparable(225.52 vs. 227.30) especially considering the different scoring systems and inflation.

 

[have an ice day]

I 100% agree, the most likely scenario is 1 of the 3A and then someone like Kamila Valieva or Dasha Usacheva. Alina will most likely not make it, and that is considering she comes out from her break. And the only way Zhenya will be able to go is if she changes her country to somewhere like Canada, which is unlikely at best.

Good luck to all the Russian ladies for seasons to come!

 

[AshWagsFan]

I think history has shown that whoever is predicted as “weak” usually ends up having great success, so I don’t think we can really make predictions based on what we think right now with any accuracy.

Alina = weak in winter 2019, won worlds 2019
Aliona = weak in summer 2019, won all international competitions this season
Anna = weak in fall 2019, won Russian Nationals for the 2nd year in a row
Sasha = weak in winter 2019....who knows what would’ve happened at worlds, or what will happen next season.

If you call winning 2 Grand Prix events, a Challenger, and silver at the GPF “weak,” with the quad lutz being landed in all of those competitions, then what must you call the skaters that can barely do triples?! :gaah: