The very last one - if I get coronavirus from my wife within the next 10 days I will publicly admit it...
Is there an option to get tested where you live, even if not sick? It might be interesting.
Justin Trudeau's wife tested positive early on in the pandemic but he never got tested because he had no symptoms, so there is a possibility that he could have been infected without knowing.
One of the most complicated things about this virus is the spectrum of symptoms, from very severe to asymptomatic. That's problematic in itself as it contributes to people ignoring restrictions because they seem overblown, besides the issue of asymptomatic spread (if COVID were like Ebola with a 50% mortality rate, containment would be easier). It is true that the vast majority of severe cases have known risk factors, but also that there are exceptions (young people in ICU, old people who are fine). Currently we aren't sure why the latter occurs (could be divergent evolution of different viral strains, or perhaps some genetic factors that confer susceptibility). However, public health policy is not really dictated by these exceptional cases.
To avoid overwhelming the healthcare system
Exactly! This is really the key argument for restrictions. The fraction of total cases that require hospitalisation (say, X% of Y total cases) has generally remained comparable across countries, taking into account differences in demographics of at-risk populations (e.g. Italy's average age is quite high). So, one can predict that at Y total cases, COVID-dedicated hospital bed capacity Z needs to equal Y*X/100. If Z < Y*X/100 then COVID-related fatalities will go up. If you increase Z by dedicating more beds to COVID patients, then there will be more fatalities from car accidents, childbirth complications, heart attack etc. which would have normally been survivable with timely medical attention.
It's true that X% is not high (WHO says 20%, but in practice it's much lower as they undercounted asymptomatic cases). However when Y is very high, Y*X/100 easily exceeds Z. Y can grow exponentially in a short timespan, while Z cannot be increased by even an order of magnitude unless you build massive field hospitals (but would still face a lack of medical personnel and supplies). You can search up your city's major hospitals' bed capacity and its daily COVID case count and make a guestimate as to how bad your local situation is.
Basically, the crux of the COVID problem is rapid undetected spread + small but significant fraction of severe cases + infrastructure limitations. Areas with shoddy healthcare will of course feel it more (e.g. the Altai region in Russia, ethnic minority neighbourhoods in US cities).
Oh yeah - I don't like Alena's Twilight LP because of the sudden music cuts. Just to be OT.
You are very very lucky that this is their response to COVID, and I am glad. It is far from a typical response. In no way, shape or form is COVID the same as the flu.
Thanks!
