Alena still holds the world record SP and combined total score. If she regains that form, she's in the mix. Unless they get a solid 3A, Anna and Sasha will have to skate pretty well over both programs to beat that level.
The question wasn't is she competitive with her 3 3A's. Of course she is.
The question was can she even get them back? Those records were achieved with 3 3A's.
And it's important to note that Anna and Sasha weren't even close to clean at the GPF when she got them. Anna fell on her 4F and underrotated her 4Lz and she actually won the FS at the competition where Alena set the total record. Sasha popped her 4S into a 2S and underrotated and fell on her 4T. Also Sasha fell and underrotated her 3A in the SP). (Rika also had a wonky 3A and fell on an underrotated 3T in the SP. Rika also fell on her 4S and underrotated one of her 3As in the FS. And you're crazy if you think an in form Rika can't match Alena's SP record.) Sasha has the WR for the FS, anyway.
So yes, they have to be clean, but Alena was perfect at this competition. At her peak (even with 3 3As), she
needed Anna and Sasha (and Rika) to fall. And here they all fell at least once. And Anna STILL one the FS. Anna only didn't fall at one competition - RusNats - and she won that.
And it'll be different if Anna and Sasha (and Rika) do what they're expected to at World's. They'll get PCS jumps there and will solidify their reputations as the ones to beat both nationally AND internationally.
Okay, but let's assume Alena gets her 3A back. (And for the record, I think it's crazy that people expect her to get it back but then also don't expect everyone else to upgrade and improve - the chances are about the same. And the others are healthier. So Alena won't be trying to catch them in their
current form - she needs to catch them in the peak for Olympics form. That's
not the same thing.)
Even her 3As back won't necessarily save her. It helped last year because:
(1) She was number 1 in Russia - and Anna and Sasha weren't. She won't be number number 1 now or even next year even with her 3As.
(2) She still
needed Anna and Sasha to fall.
(3) She had a PCS advantage on them. She won't again. Anna had already almost caught her last year. Anna's the 3x national champion now.
And that's only against Anna and Sasha. There's also Kamila. Kamila has a higher tech content than both of them, as it stands - both can upgrade -
and has a solid 3A. Aliona's 3A (if she gets it back) is completely negated by Kamila's. Kamila also has a 3A and to 4Ts that she can land
cleanly in the FS. Aliona only had at her peak 2 3As. And yes, Aliona can upgrade but so can Kamila (and the others). Aliona needs to upgrade to even get back her 3As. Kamila already has her 3As and 4Ts (and is working on a 4S).
So I get why people are saying that with her 3As she's compettive. But that's not a given and even with them, she needed them to make mistakes and had a PCS advantage - even at her peak. That's less likely now as her PCS advantage is pretty much gone (and was going even last year before all this) and Anna and Sasha's jumps are better this year than last year. And Kamila doesn't even need any of that. And there are others. Right now, Aliona needs to work to even get to Daria and Liza T's form. Much less try to reach anyone elses.