2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[beepboop]

I just watched part of it, those people are delusional. I don't know if they forgot about Alysa's 3A and Quad, or if they have some sort of blind vendetta against her.

Dave Lease has a blind vendetta for sure lmao. He kept asking Jonathan what he thought Alysa's odds of making the team were if they "forget about" her ultra-c jumps like..... ok what are Kamila Valieva's odds of making the Russian team without any ultra-c's? What were Anna Scherbakova's odds of winning Worlds without a quad?! Oh wow ultra-c's make a huge difference in scores what a concept Idiotic exercise

 

[Sjs5572]

Ahead of Anna and Sasha, who have landed quads in competition last seaso

Ahead of Anna and Sasha, who have landed quads in competition last season?

Yes. Her skating skills, speed and ice coverage are better. Her 3a and 4lz appear to now be big, both in terms of distance and amplitude. The only question mark is whether the quad Lutz will be perfectly rotated by Cranberry/Grand Prix.

 

[katymay]

I know the season's early, but with Alysa's senior year transformation, I would place her and Kamila as the two favorites for Olympic Gold. If her quad Lutz is fully rotated by Cranberry, then it's neck and neck. Skate Canada should be a battle of epic proportions. Hopefully, Alysa will be sent to Nebelhorn to help maximize her well deserved PCS improvement by the Grand Prix season.

I wouldn't go that far, but who knows. I think she is the favorite for U.S. nationals, in my book at least-I see her winning. I'm sure she will go to Nebelhorn, even based on last years' program and her general consistency. As far as Olympic Gold-she is not in Kamila's league, and I would put the other Russians girls, Young You and Rika ahead of her. The truth is though-it is skating, and anything can happen.

 

[CrazyKittenLady]

ok what are Kamila Valieva's odds of making the Russian team without any ultra-c's? What were Anna Scherbakova's odds of winning Worlds without a quad?!

Just saying, Anna won Worlds without landing a quad.

 

[MCsAngel2]

I wouldn't go that far, but who knows. I think she is the favorite for U.S. nationals, in my book at least-I see her winning. I'm sure she will go to Nebelhorn, even based on last years' program and her general consistency. As far as Olympic Gold-she is not in Kamila's league, and I would put the other Russians girls, Young You and Rika ahead of her. The truth is though-it is skating, and anything can happen.

Agree Alysa is going to be the frontrunner for the next US Championship. Sort of agree but also disagree with who should be considered in front of her in the international field. In a vacuum, when everything goes perfectly, agree that Rika on the whole is superior. But it's clear now that Rika has issues with competition nerves and she often winds up underperforming expectations. (And Sasha has this issue too to a lesser extent). Everything I've heard about Alysa indicates that she thrives on competition, so I'm starting to think she could have an outside chance at a medal at the Olympics.

 

[MCsAngel2]

Just saying, Anna won Worlds without landing a quad.

But she didn't win without attempting a quad. No one is making podiums anymore without ultra C attempts.

 

[beepboop]

But she didn't win without attempting a quad. No one is making podiums anymore without ultra C attempts.

This, and I don't think she would've been the favorite to win (and gotten the accompanying PCS boost) if she didn't have a quad in her arsenal.

 

[Sjs5572]

I wouldn't go that far, but who knows. I think she is the favorite for U.S. nationals, in my book at least-I see her winning. I'm sure she will go to Nebelhorn, even based on last years' program and her general consistency. As far as Olympic Gold-she is not in Kamila's league, and I would put the other Russians girls, Young You and Rika ahead of her. The truth is though-it is skating, and anything can happen.

Alysa grew five inches, and nursed an injury last year. This year, she and her team turned lemons into lemonade by exploiting her newfound strength, height and extension. She is evolving on a daily basis. Alysa may not win Skate Canada, but the Grand Prix Final could be a different story

 

[Minz]

Doesn’t having the quad also allow you to do more jumps (like an extra combination or sequence) because of the Zayak Rule?

 

[Tanya]

Good points made about TSL's reliability, I guess we wont know Alysa's plans till she says what they are herself. I wouldnt predict Alysa on the podium ahead of Kamila or Sasha. They're the two I would have most likely on the Russian team RN. Idk if Rika's problem is more nerves or injury, so idk about her. Young basically lost a whole year of training because she got locked down in Korea so idk what she'll look like next year either - last I heard she was training with Tom again but idk if thats still the case. It definitely seems crazy to suggest that Alysa is not still a frontrunner for the Olympic team.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

If she keeps this up—I predict that Mr Jeremy Abbott will become THE new hot coach!
Bravo, Jeremy.

Yes, but Massimo Scali is her main coach. So it would be him first and I say that as a huge supporter of anything Abbott.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

They do it all the time. These sources are often just people that share the rink with skaters. TSL just said a few months ago that Alysa was dealing with growth issues and a hip injury. Days later she posted her 4Lz and 3A clips. Clearly they were just regurgitating her condition from last fall, when she was dealing with these issues. She was in Italy, how would their source honestly know anything?

Furthermore, their relying on the perspective on bystanders that may get things wrong themselves or have their own negative opinions about them. TSL has accused a lot of Asian parents of being controlling tiger parents. How much is based on objective observation or just assumptions based on seeing events and actions from afar? It’s very worrisome and dangerous. For example, a poster on their board actually shared the rink with Alysa and said that he’s mostly hands off and doing work while she’s on the ice. Another person confirmed that observation at another competition. I trust their first hand accounts to TSL second hand accounts any day.

People can be hurt a lot by baseless rumors, like Gracie was. TSL got everything completely wrong in her case. They just took a bunch of outsider information and ran with it. They didn’t know that the specifics of what happened or sadly how much Gracie was struggling. Which is why I say, don’t believe their hyped up stories. Take it all with a grain of salt.

I’ve been burned too many times by TSL. They really know nothing. They rely on unreliable sources all the time. They about is accurate as the super market tabloid. There may be a grain of truth, but there’d so much conjecture and gossip, I honestly look at all their news with skepticism.

All of this! I have been saying these things for years.

 

[MCsAngel2]

Yes, but Massimo Scali is her main coach. So it would be him first and I say that as a huge supporter of anything Abbott.

Scali is practically a miracle worker. I wish he could work with every skater in the US. I really think eliminating figures 30 years ago is hurting skating.

 

[gkelly]

Doesn’t having the quad also allow you to do more jumps (like an extra combination or sequence) because of the Zayak Rule?

There are a maximum number of jump slots in the well-balanced free skate:

7 jump passes, of which 3 can be combinations or sequences of 2 jumps or 1 or the 3 can be a combination with 3 jumps

So that means a maximum of 11 jumps total.

Having a quad or 3A doesn't allow you to do more than the maximum number of jumps allowed, but it does allow you to fill more of those slots with high-value jumps.

Specifically, if you have a 3A, you don't have to spend at least one of those slots on a 2A. You can do a total of 8 triples (1 or 2 of them being axels) rather than 7 triples and a double axel.

If you have at least two triple-triple combinations, you can get 7 of them done in 5 jumping passes, or 8 in 6 passes if you have a 3A. That leaves you at least one jumping pass without a triple. If you have a quad, you can fit that into the extra jump slot. If not, you would need to fill it with a double axel or easier double.

 

[readernick]

Just saying, Anna won Worlds without landing a quad.

Indeed, but as others have mentioned she was scored very generously in PCS and GOE compared to other competitors for similar or worse elements due to her 'quad bonus" and her being Russia's 1 one athlete.

I do think that Worlds was an unfortunate look at what women's skating is going to look like over the next few years. Skaters with better quality elements and better programs are going to lose out to those with messy programs who have 3As and quads. The winner will be the one who has 3as or quads in their programs and who falls the least. Men's skating was like this for 10 years, but has moved beyond this. Women's skating is taking its place.

As this applies to Alysa, I think people on this forum need to be more balanced. We haven't even seen her entire program performed with all the jumping pass. And, yet some want to declare her co-favorite for Olympic champion. Others completely dismiss her chances internationally. Alysa can make the Olympic team without quads or 3A if she is clean. She isn't guaranteed to win US nationals without, at least, a 3A but she will be a contender and almost certainly in the top 3. On the other hand, she won't win anything internationally without, at least, consistently landing her 3As. Consistently landing 3As and her 4Lz ( if she rotated) will make her a real contender and GOE/PCS will rise imho.

In terms of actual skating, she isn't at Aliona's, Rika's, Ksenia S's, or Valieva's level. However, the first three skaters had consistency issues ( and/ or problems with injury..Rika is still injured) last year. So, that leaves Valieva as the only clear favorite over Alysa in that group. Anna , Young You and Sasha aren't better skaters than Alysa in terms of SS ( Although Sasha's jumps are certainly better) or overall performance and yet they have been very competitive because they have quads. Alysa success internationally will depend on the same thing.

 

[moonvine]

Everyone is talking about Alysa and Cranberry - is that a guess or is there an entry list now?

 

[beepboop]

Everyone is talking about Alysa and Cranberry - is that a guess or is there an entry list now?

I believe it's based on TSL's claim that Alysa, Bradie, and Gracie have entered.

 

[moonvine]

I believe it's based on TSL's claim that Alysa, Bradie, and Gracie have entered.

Thanks. I was hoping there was something definitive as I’ve made a hotel reservation.

 

[AlysaLiuStan]

I wouldn't go that far, but who knows. I think she is the favorite for U.S. nationals, in my book at least-I see her winning. I'm sure she will go to Nebelhorn, even based on last years' program and her general consistency. As far as Olympic Gold-she is not in Kamila's league, and I would put the other Russians girls, Young You and Rika ahead of her. The truth is though-it is skating, and anything can happen.

I actually think that a Chinese audience could help Alysa in Beijing, no? Given they have no women at the top level. Just a thought.

 

[readernick]

I actually think that a Chinese audience could help Alysa in Beijing, no? Given they have no women at the top level. Just a thought.

Alysa is extremely unpopular in China ( where she has a very unflattering nickname on Chinese skating social media) because she dared to voice her opinion about the Uyghur cultural genocide. Additionally, her father is a Chinese dissident. I wouldn't look for support in China.