I'm starting to think about the team event for the Olympics. Traditionally, the US likes to split their singles disciplines across two different skaters, but none of the US ladies, bar Alysa, are really looking consistent enough for that. Alysa should absolutely do the short program, as the only US lady with a triple axel that's been landed in competition, alongside a backloaded triple-triple. Plus, the short program is far more decisive for the final medals compared to the free program since countries can really get buried with ten countries participating in the short program compared to only five int he free. However, none of the US ladies are looking consistent enough to do the free program besides Alysa.
The other countries likely to qualify for the free program are Russia, Japan, China, and Canada, with Japan the clear favorite for bronze. Whichever US lady selected would be expected to beat China and Canada, and possibly give the Japanese lady a run for her money. Alysa's the only one who can really do that.
Of course, in terms of overall medals, it likely won't make a big difference. With Japan's recent success in pairs skating, they're likely to place close to the US in mens, ladies, and pairs, but will also likely get buried in the ice dance rhythm dance, to the point that it likely won't make a huge difference which US lady they send for the free program, since all the US ladies can reasonably beat the Chinese and Canadian ladies.
However, that's in the most likely, and best case scenario. What if the American pairs team does poorly in the short? Or an American man falls? With Japan's pairs success, there's a lot less room for error than what was previously assumed. I'm starting to feel like they might ask Alysa to do both segments to keep things safer. Since Alysa doesn't have a great shot at the Olympic podium, and there's more time for recovery between the team event and individual event for ladies, she's certainly more likely to accept than say, Nathan, where there's much less recovery time and an individual gold medal is on the line.
TLDR: Alysa's looking more likely to do both segments of the team event so the US can lock up a team silver. This is bad news for all the other US ladies, who would of course want to do the team event, as it's essentially a guaranteed medal, especially since the rest of them are no where close to being podium contenders.
