2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Joekaz]

It depends. Does Koari has triple axel? Does Anna has triple axel? Liza lost to Anna because she fell on 3A in SP at Rus Nationals. How Anna beat Liza at Rus National? 2A+multiple 3/3 in later half.

Young You's 3A also costs her a medal at 4CC. If Alysa jumped 2A instead of 3A at NHK GP Short program, she could win Silver medal. She was less than 2 points from winning silver at NHK GP.

The best layout for Alysa is something similar to her Lombardia layout.
2A in short program + 3/3 in later half (please, no more triple axel in short program)
3A in long program + multiple 3/3 in later half

If Alysa skate clean with just one triple axel in long program, she can score over 220 easily.

The best strategy for Alysa is to simplify choreography - longer jump set up, easier entry to the jumps, less hand flappings, reserve stamina for 3/3 in second half program.

It's not about playing it safe. It's about maximizing points based on your current ability. If you name is not "Kamila", you won't be able to land triple axel all the time.

If Liu skates clean that would probably mean the tech caller isn't too strict, then 220 won't be that great when you look at the talent against her. I guess it comes down to what placing is your target and how much you are counting on others to fail. Its not an easy decision, but she isn't going to make the podium, so why not just go for it. Maybe see how Mana and Wakaba do on their 3As and then decide? If the tech caller is tight, then do a 2A.

 

[skatingiscool]

If Liu skates clean that would probably mean the tech caller isn't too strict, then 220 won't be that great when you look at the talent against her. I guess it comes down to what placing is your target and how much you are counting on others to fail. Its not an easy decision, but she isn't going to make the podium, so why not just go for it. Maybe see how Mana and Wakaba do on their 3As and then decide? If the tech caller is tight, then do a 2A.

Once again, look at Young You's 7th placement at 4CC. Imagine if there are top US skaters, Russians and Europeans (Leona) compete at 4CC, Young You could place as low as 15th place at 4CC. You can see how risky 3A is.

If Alysa has similar performance like Young You (fell on 3A in both SP and LP), she may not even in top 15 at Olympics. Out of top 15 finish at Olympics will be BAD for Alysa's reputation and open doors for haters like you. You will have an excuse to trash her on social media everywhere. Alysa may suffer similar fate like Amber, she may not be selected for World's team in future.

If Alysa cut back the risk and only jump ONE triple axel in long program, she will be safe as top 10 finish at Olympics.
Russians are almost guaranteed going to sweep the podium. Alysa doesn't has any chance to be on podium at this point. What Alysa should do is....trying to place ahead of other American skaters, beat some Japanese/Korean and fight for top 5 finish. Alysa's Lombardia layout is good enough to achieve this goal.

Risk with triple axel is way too high and it's just not worth it. Sasha, Liza, Young You and Alysa Liu all fell on 3A in the last 2 months.It's just NOT wise to include 3A in short program. It's OK for the long program.

Simple math question. Which one is better? 100% success rate on 2A vs 10% success rate on 3A in SP?
It should be an easy answer for this math.

 

[moonvine]

If Liu skates clean that would probably mean the tech caller isn't too strict, then 220 won't be that great when you look at the talent against her. I guess it comes down to what placing is your target and how much you are counting on others to fail. Its not an easy decision, but she isn't going to make the podium, so why not just go for it. Maybe see how Mana and Wakaba do on their 3As and then decide? If the tech caller is tight, then do a 2A.

I think people are saying she should not attempt it in the team event SP.

 

[moonvine]

Once again, look at Young You's 7th placement at 4CC. Imagine if there are top US skaters, Russians and Europeans (Leona) compete at 4CC, Young You could place as low as 15th place at 4CC. You can see how risky 3A is.

If Alysa has similar performance like Young You (fell on 3A in both SP and LP), she may not even in top 15 at Olympics. Out of top 15 finish at Olympics will be BAD for Alysa's reputation and open doors for haters like you. You will have an excuse to trash her on social media everywhere. Alysa may suffer similar fate like Amber, she may not be selected for World's team in future.

If Alysa cut back the risk and only jump ONE triple axel in long program, she will be safe as top 10 finish at Olympics.
Russians are almost guaranteed going to sweep the podium. Alysa doesn't has any chance to be on podium at this point. What Alysa should do is....trying to place ahead of other American skaters, beat some Japanese/Korean and fight for top 5 finish. Alysa's Lombardia layout is good enough to achieve this goal.

Risk with triple axel is way too high and it's just not worth it. Sasha, Liza, Young You and Alysa Liu all fell on 3A in the last 2 months.It's just NOT wise to include 3A in short program. It's OK for the long program.

Simple math question. Which one is better? 100% success rate on 2A vs 10% success rate on 3A in SP?
It should be an easy answer for this math.

Why would you think the OP is a “hater?” I hope Alysa and her team don’t decide her layout based on “haters.”

 

[Joekaz]

Once again, look at Young You's 7th placement at 4CC. Imagine if there are top US skaters, Russians and Europeans (Leona) compete at 4CC, Young You could place as low as 15th place at 4CC. You can see how risky 3A is.

If Alysa has similar performance like Young You (fell on 3A in both SP and LP), she may not even in top 15 at Olympics. Out of top 15 finish at Olympics will be BAD for Alysa's reputation and open doors for haters like you. You will have an excuse to trash her on social media everywhere. Alysa may suffer similar fate like Amber, she may not be selected for World's team in future.

If Alysa cut back the risk and only jump ONE triple axel in long program, she will be safe as top 10 finish at Olympics.
Russians are almost guaranteed going to sweep the podium. Alysa doesn't has any chance to be on podium at this point. What Alysa should do is....trying to place ahead of other American skaters, beat some Japanese/Korean and fight for top 5 finish. Alysa's Lombardia layout is good enough to achieve this goal.

Risk with triple axel is way too high and it's just not worth it. Sasha, Liza, Young You and Alysa Liu all fell on 3A in the last 2 months.It's just NOT wise to include 3A in short program. It's OK for the long program.

Simple math question. Which one is better? 100% success rate on 2A vs 10% success rate on 3A in SP?
It should be an easy answer for this math.

If she is only 10% on 3A, why do it at all? If Mana and Higuchi hit their 3As before Liu skates(they were 3 for 3 at Nationals), should she still just go 2A? It doesn't have to be perfect,a q or stepout is still better than perfect 2A.

 

[skatingiscool]

Why would you think the OP is a “hater?” I hope Alysa and her team don’t decide her layout based on “haters.”

We (not just me) saw his negative comments towards Alysa on Youtube, twitter, this forum everywhere. Alysa just changed her instagram and limit "comment" function a couple days ago. I'm sure some haters left unwanted comments on her instagram before. This OP probably says "Alysa won't be in top 5 in Japan" something like that hundreds times on different social platforms in the past few months. He should just stay in Japanese skater forum.

 

[Joekaz]

I think people are saying she should not attempt it in the team event SP.

Oh, ok. I agree with that.

 

[Joekaz]

We (not just me) saw his negative comments towards Alysa on Youtube and twitter everywhere .

If the truth is negative, is that my fault? Im saying she should go for it and you are saying her 3A is too weak, and Im negative? Lol I dont 100% disagree with you. I just say see how the tech caller is on prior skaters and try it in warm-ups, then decide.

 

[moonvine]

We (not just me) saw his negative comments towards Alysa on Youtube, twitter, this forum everywhere. Alysa just changed her instagram and limit "comment" function a couple days ago. I'm sure some haters left unwanted comments on her instagram before. This OP probably says "Alysa won't be in top 5 in Japan" something like that hundreds times on different social platforms in the past few months. He should just stay in Japanese skater forum.

I see.

 

[Joekaz]

I see.

Saying she wouldn't be top 5 in Japan wasn't hating. Japan is very deep on the ladies side and Rika hadn't withdrawn yet. That doesn't mean Liu was way behind or would not have a chance. There isn't a big gap between the top skaters in Japan. It doesn't even mean she wouldn't beat some of them internationally. It just meant that I thought Kihira, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Mihara, Matsuike, Kawabe, and possibly Miyahara were better. While debatable, that is hardly outrageous. I like Liu and have said she is the best American all year. But what annoys me is the overhype and unrealistic expectations many American fans put on her, which predictably put needless extra pressure on her.

 

[ucrgirl]

Saying she wouldn't be top 5 in Japan wasn't hating. Japan is very deep on the ladies side and Rika hadn't withdrawn yet. That doesn't mean Liu was way behind or would not have a chance. There isn't a big gap between the top skaters in Japan. It doesn't even mean she wouldn't beat some of them internationally. It just meant that I thought Kihira, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Mihara, Matsuike, Kawabe, and possibly Miyahara were better. While debatable, that is hardly outrageous. I like Liu and have said she is the best American all year. But what annoys me is the overhype and unrealistic expectations many American fans put on her, which predictably put needless extra pressure on her.

That comment seems reasonable to me.

I have no knowledge of what may or may not have been posted on youtube or elsewhere on the forum, but sometimes people on this forum have very thin skin and any thing less than adoration of their favorites is called being a "hater."

Anyway, Alyssa has been the top US woman this year, but it is possible that the recent coaching change and Covid-related time off mean she isn't at her peak right now. I don't envy the USFSA trying to decide which woman should do the team event.

 

[Lamente Ariane]

It's not about playing it safe. It's about maximizing points based on your current ability. If you name is not "Kamila", you won't be able to land triple axel all the time.

Even Kamila has never been 100% on triple axel attempts in competition and certainly not outside of it. She fell on her SP 3A attempt at Finlandia Trophy at the start of the season and she fell on it in the free skate at Euros just a couple weeks ago. Which is why I agree it's a risky element to include.

 

[Dawn825]

Even Kamila has never been 100% on triple axel attempts in competition and certainly not outside of it.

Sigh, remember that dream year Kostornaia went %100 on stunning triple axels in her senior debut? Historic. The very last time we had nice things
I hope Alysa does both parts of the team event and looks amazing, with or without a triple axel. I was really blown away by her at the start of the season and I hope her heart is still in it.

 

[ptvvibezz]

Karen's currently on her way to Beijing along with Vincent and K/F!

https://www.instagram.com/stories/karebearsk8/2760580887549040854/

 

[R.D.]

If Liu has the highest scores of the season for the US ladies, then...it makes sense to have her do both segments of the team event. The US is looking for a medal here, right?

 

[Sai Bon]

If Liu has the highest scores of the season for the US ladies, then...it makes sense to have her do both segments of the team event. The US is looking for a medal here, right?

I guess it all depends on Alysa herself. She's young, but she recently had COVID. Doing two SPs and LPs under intense pressure so soon after recovery might be too much to ask.

 

[jenaj]

Saying she wouldn't be top 5 in Japan wasn't hating. Japan is very deep on the ladies side and Rika hadn't withdrawn yet. That doesn't mean Liu was way behind or would not have a chance. There isn't a big gap between the top skaters in Japan. It doesn't even mean she wouldn't beat some of them internationally. It just meant that I thought Kihira, Sakamoto, Higuchi, Mihara, Matsuike, Kawabe, and possibly Miyahara were better. While debatable, that is hardly outrageous. I like Liu and have said she is the best American all year. But what annoys me is the overhype and unrealistic expectations many American fans put on her, which predictably put needless extra pressure on her.

What is the point in saying it? It's just your opinion. What purpose does it serve? And what relevance does it have to anything? Alysa will never be skating in Japanese Nationals and will likely never face more than three Japanese skaters at any event. Karen Chen beat the entire Japanese team at Worlds last year so they are not that invincible.

 

[Amei]

If Liu has the highest scores of the season for the US ladies, then...it makes sense to have her do both segments of the team event. The US is looking for a medal here, right?

Alysa's score that's the "highest" of US ladies is from September, from the GP circuit Mariah actually has the highest score. Considering Alysa has probably had to miss and modify some training due to covid plus the changes of coaches, its probably asking a little much for her to do 4 competition programs in the span of 2 weeks.

 

[macy]

based on what alysa has shared about her olympic goals over the years, i am assuming she will want to focus more on the individual competition. if they let her choose i would be surprised if she wanted to do both sections in the team event.

 

[Amei]

based on what alysa has shared about her olympic goals over the years, i am assuming she will want to focus more on the individual competition. if they let her choose i would be surprised if she wanted to do both sections in the team event.

Well 2 things:

• Team event can only have 2 substitutions for 4 disciplines so its not just her wants/desires that comes into play here. If the Fed says to do the team event she has to do both segments her only options are to either do it or not compete in the team event at all
• her and her father probably understand her chances at individual medal are very slim unless there are some unfortunate WDs for injuries or covid --- and that is based off performances prior to the coaching change and bout of Covid. Maybe they should consider gambling a bad performance in her individual event for a 2 segment team event performance where barring implosion from several disciplines, a medal looks like a sure thing