If Liu skates clean that would probably mean the tech caller isn't too strict, then 220 won't be that great when you look at the talent against her. I guess it comes down to what placing is your target and how much you are counting on others to fail. Its not an easy decision, but she isn't going to make the podium, so why not just go for it. Maybe see how Mana and Wakaba do on their 3As and then decide? If the tech caller is tight, then do a 2A.It depends. Does Koari has triple axel? Does Anna has triple axel? Liza lost to Anna because she fell on 3A in SP at Rus Nationals. How Anna beat Liza at Rus National? 2A+multiple 3/3 in later half.
Young You's 3A also costs her a medal at 4CC. If Alysa jumped 2A instead of 3A at NHK GP Short program, she could win Silver medal. She was less than 2 points from winning silver at NHK GP.
The best layout for Alysa is something similar to her Lombardia layout.
2A in short program + 3/3 in later half (please, no more triple axel in short program)
3A in long program + multiple 3/3 in later half
If Alysa skate clean with just one triple axel in long program, she can score over 220 easily.
The best strategy for Alysa is to simplify choreography - longer jump set up, easier entry to the jumps, less hand flappings, reserve stamina for 3/3 in second half program.
It's not about playing it safe. It's about maximizing points based on your current ability. If you name is not "Kamila", you won't be able to land triple axel all the time.