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Exactly. Imagine thinking generic "no comment" interview answers mean anything; meanwhile, NBC is showing already prepared fluff pieces on the team event skaters, including Karen only among the women.
2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating
- Thread starter Minz
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- Apr 11, 2021
I don't think USFS should make the ice dance swap for the free skate, and they should use a ladies sub instead. H/D can beat S/K, but C/B cannot.
Team USA has a real chance at gold now.
Team USA has a real chance at gold now.
The 3 US ladies are pretty evenly matched any 1 of them is unlikely to place ahead of the other, the 2 ice dancers have been the dominating teams for the US this cycle, they have earned the right to each do a segment in the team event and it would be a major slap in the face to Chock and Bates to last minute change the assignments.
I get it, you want to see Alysa skate here so she gets an Olympic medal, but her situation just didn't work out this year on every level to justify your proposed change.
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- Apr 11, 2021
The job of USFS is (or should be) to pick the strongest team possible. Whether you like it or not, deciding not to use an ice dance substitution would give the US the best chance for gold.
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- Oct 14, 2019
C/B could have beat S/K yesterday too if they skated as well as they did at Nationals. At NHK Trophy, when C/B and S/K competed directly against each other, C/B were only 0.3 points behind S/K where both teams skated without obvious mistakes. And again, it would be a massive slap in the face from USFS to Chock/Bates, the reigning National champions, the team captains for the whole team, and one of the best ice dance teams in the world.
I would argue that the strongest team possible involves Chock/Bates, and does not involve Alysa at the moment. Alysa is a complete question mark after her major coaching change, and she's arriving to Beijing so late that there's not enough time to properly get adjusted to the time difference and the environment. Furthermore, Chock/Bates' free dance is significantly less risky than Hubbell/Donohue's. Hubbell/Donohue have a very impressive lift at the beginning of their free dance which could get called illegal if Zach performs it slightly incorrectly. That would be a massive points deficit, certain to put H/D behind the Russians, Italians, and Canadians. Chock/Bates do not run that risk in their program, and they will be able to finish comfortably ahead of the Italians and Canadians, while they can beat the Russians if the Russians make mistakes.
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- Mar 28, 2016
I would assume the USFS has a better idea of the current situation than we do. Alysa must not be at a level significantly higher than Karen or Mariah right now if they aren't using her. I don't think they have some sort of vendetta against her and some astronomical love of Karen or Mariah.
The ladies are likely evenly matched at this point in the year, making the strategic argument moot. In such case, it makes no sense to have two ladies who would place around the same level rather than two dance teams, especially when both dance teams are world medal quality.
Alysa isn't doing the team event, and I don't think it's highway robbery for her not to do it.
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Whichever woman is chosen, I hope the USFSA explains its decision since both Mariah and Karen stated this week that they hope to get picked. We've known in the past that the top athlete in each event was asked if they wanted to do one or both programs. Who is the top athlete for the women? Did any of them decline the chance to participate? Lots of questions.
- I imagine the Fed knows who they want to go with, weirdly both the US and Russia have been tight lipped about who is going to compete in the team event
- Both Mariah and Karen are smart, they understand the team event is their only shot at Olympic medals, without a handful of unfortunate things happening to their competitors for the individual event - so of course they are going to say they want to compete in the team event
- See above I doubt any of them decline the team event if offered
- Regarding the top skater for the ladies - the problem is the US has none, it was anticipated and hyped for the last 3 years to be Alysa, but that hasn't been the case, all 3 of the ladies are pretty evenly matched against each other. While Alysa does have more difficulty than the other 2, her scores were pretty similar to their's due to errors on her side, additionally she's now gone through a last minute coaching change and had covid which took her out of nationals and potentially affected her training << I think there has to be a reason that she was waiting till the last minute to go to China, remember once they get to China they are subject to set practice times, whereas at home they can train however much they want.
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- Apr 11, 2021
All I'm saying is that if the US remains in gold medal position or within striking distance, it will be interesting to see if they stick with their original plan, because I don't think they or anyone else anticipated this result.
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I strongly disagree with this. You're making it seem like somehow Chock & Bates aren't at the same level or something.
That's certainly not the case at all.
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- Mar 12, 2007
As another poster, Blades of Passion I think, argued on the TE threads, the strongest team would probably be using Nathan Chen twice. But he's probably declined to focus on the individual competition, and I support him wholeheartedly in that. The point being there are considerations above and beyond team selection for the TE, which may be sorta prestigious but still has kinda fluff status -- hence top contenders like Yuzu skipping the TE repeatedly, Nathan wanting to do only the short, etc.. But H/D and C/B are so evenly matched this argument is not convincing.
The only unexpected thing from the first day (IMO) was the pairs team for the US placing where they did, on top of that the Team Event led off with the 2 best disciplines for the US and the 2 worst disciplines for Russia.
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- Oct 14, 2019
Yep, Alexa and Brandon overperformed dramatically, beating the Japanese, Canadian, Italian, and Georgian pairs. Hubbell/Donohue also overperformed, they weren't expected to beat Nikita and Vika, but that is a fewer points differential than what was expected compared to what Alexa and Brandon did.
After the women's short, the US and Russia will most likely be tied, since the US lady (whoever it is) is most likely to finish third, behind the Russians and Japanese, thus erasing the two point lead the US currently have. She would be expected to finish third again in the free skate, a two point deficit. For the US to win gold, Alexa and Brandon will need to place third again in the free skate, and ideally, Sui/Han would beat M/G so that it's only a three point total deficit from the two weakest events for the US to try to make up in men's and dance.
In dance, the most likely scenario will be Chock/Bates placing second while Nikita and Vika place first, so then it's a four point deficit. If Vincent finishes first and Mark finishes last, then the two teams will be tied, and I have no clue how the tie breaker works, but that's quite unlikely to happen. More realistic is Vincent being 1st/2nd and Mark being 3rd/4th.
For the US to win team gold, Vincent will have to be first in the free skate, Alexa and Brandon need to be third in the free skate, the US ladies have to make sure they aren't beaten by any non-Russian or non-Japanese ladies. Then, Vikita need to make another mistake so that C/B finish ahead of them in dance. Even if all of those things go right, Mark will need to be fourth in the men's free for the US to win outright, or it goes to a tiebreaker if he's third.
And Hubbell/Donohue are not beating Vikita if Vikita don't make major mistakes, so there's no difference between subbing C/B or subbing H/D. Both American teams can beat the Russians if the Russians make major mistakes, and neither American team can beat the Russians if the Russians don't make major mistakes.
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- Apr 11, 2021
Pairs and Ice dance are the worst disciplines for Russia?? I don't think anyone predicted Sin/kats losing to H/D.
The only chance to the plan would be putting Nathan in again.
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- Mar 28, 2016
I really hope they rest him, I want him to save some magic for the individual. I know V/M were able to pull off 4 solid performances in 2 weeks, but with the way he's drilling quads I don't want him to tire himself out.
Ice dancing is a little different from the other disciplines as it does not require super taxing elements like multiple triple and quad jumps
&edit to add ice dancing is difficult, my point is just I don't think it's as physically taxing as the others, no disrespect to ice dancers intended
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- Mar 28, 2016
I agree! I just didn't want to undermine ice dance as a discipline as I know it's still very athletic and difficult. But doing 2 five quad free skates in less than a week? Pass.
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