2021-22 U.S. Pairs Figure Skating

[dorispulaski]

The Challengers Series is settled by points, not placings. And it is the sum of the scores of the best 2 of 3 events.
C-G/L got a low score at ACI.

C-G/L could have placed higher in the series if they had been able to compete at a third event, but did not do a 3rd event.

But they definitely struggled in the ACI FS.

https://results.skatecanada.ca/2021ACI/CSCAN2021_Pairs_FS_Scores.pdf

They had problems with the twist and both throws, had a fall, and used 2t2t as a combination. I thought they were underscored in the SP, but the FS was a struggle.

C/J struggled in the FS at Zagreb, but it was their lowest scoring of 3 events. Their series placing was based on their Finlandia & Warsaw scores only, which is why they placed higher in the series than CG/L, who were not able to throw out their lowest score, from ACI

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

Cain Gribble & Leduc only did two events and struggled at ACI in Canada, so they finished lower down.

I see you responded to my previous post. I wrote the post after this one before seeing your input above @dorispulaski. I love both Jessica/Brian and Ash/Timothy. I truly wish there were 3 spots available. But, I'd break it down like I said earlier, in terms of Worlds, Olympics and 4CCs assignments. Of course, the decision will come down to performances at 2021 U.S. Nationals, and to the Selection Committee's confab behind closed doors afterward. I'm sure some fed members are behind C/J, and some members are behind C-G/LD. ETA: Others might be behind Lu/Mitrofanov, but they are young and they need more international experience and exposure to build up their stature before a Worlds assignment. 4CCs (if it is held) would be a good test for them.

Internationally, this season, Ash/Timothy have proven they can battle back and be relatively consistent, under adverse circumstances. C/J battled at Warsaw Cup for sure. But if you want to talk about a team struggling at a competition, look at C/J's sp at Warsaw Cup. I know it doesn't count in the Challenger Series' standings, but C/J did not follow-up Warsaw Cup with a good showing at Golden Spin, in a field without top teams competing. C/J were 5th at Skate America, and 4th at Finlandia, behind Ash/Timothy. And if you want to talk about struggling, check out C/J's fp at 2021 Nationals. C/J were fortunate to place 2nd. It's possible that C/J had learned about Jessica's positive drug test before they skated their fp, which might account for their weird miscues. Meanwhile, Ash/Timothy were taken down by some eagle eyes noticing Timothy's unnoticeable boot movement where he was not holding his toe plant steady for a slight moment in the sp death spiral. But no one watching saw that in real time because it wasn't very visible, and it didn't affect their execution on the ds at all. They should have received at least some points on their ds.

Apparently, you are focused on the importance of having high scoring potential. I think that can vary from competition to competition. But yes, it's very relevant. Certainly, C/J receive good GOE for their quality elements, and that's what truly helps C/J compensate for woeful sbs jumps: the overall world class quality of their SS and elements. But we can't ignore that sbs jumps are important. With the talent that C/J have, coupled with such weakness and self-doubt on their jumps, that weakness has become a non-starter for me. I know, if they hit the jumps and do everything else like they can, they might receive decently high scores. In general, though, international judges don't give U.S. teams their due consistently. So, I guess you weigh huge talent and scoring potential against what Ash/Timothy achieved in fighting back this season. You say A&T struggled so much at ACI, well they still medaled, so it was not as disastrous as you are stating. A lot of teams had problems at that event, which helped Ash/Timothy. It ought to tell us something that A&T were good enough to capitalize, even without skating their best at that event. At Finlandia, A&T were lowballed in the sp, but still managed to show grit and competitiveness with a relatively clean fp. And they also performed well at Skate Canada and at NHK.

Personally, I want to see C/J overcome their mental blocks and/or self-doubts on their sbs jumps. There's a lot of talk about Raf's staff working with them on the jumps. As we know, Raf has said it takes at least two years for skaters to show real improvement on jump issues after he begins working with them. It's unclear even how often someone on his staff is actually working with C/J. Is it truly about technique issues, or a combo of technique, nerves, and bad habits? C/J can't afford to have this weakness, IMO. Sure the rest of their quality helps them, but it hurts them more to be seen as a very talented pairs team with unreliable jumps. Brass tacks time: Get it Together. No excuses.

U.S. fed certainly didn't easily forgive Ash/Timothy for not stepping up to the plate at 2019 Skate America, where they had strong political backing from the fed, and an outside chance to win gold, and at the least to make the podium. They could only manage 4th behind a surprise Haven/Brandon in 3rd. Ash/ Timothy had to come back from that misstep and crisis of confidence, and they have! So, as I said, both teams are close in overall assessments, not simply based on perceived scoring potential or on most recent stats.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

Is Cranberry Cup considered part of the Challenger's Series? Ash/Timothy had to withdraw due to Ash's COVID diagnosis. Fortunately, she came back from that illness, and they fought hard the rest of the way. Prior to the diagnosis, Ash/Timothy were looking very sharp in training clips, and in a wonderful sp video filmed by OIP.

The way you phrased your sentence makes it sound like Ash/Timothy are an afterthought somehow and that they didn't have a good season in comparison to C/J, which simply isn't true. A&T came out strong, with a lovely performance in the sp at Finlandia. The judges lowballed them big time. And they fought back, and they won the bronze medal, ahead of C/J btw, who placed 4th at Finlandia.

Of course, C/J didn't get a second GP due to the overlap of the drug matter, which is thankfully overturned. So, with a silver medal at Warsaw (after struggling in the sp, keep in mind), and the 4th at Finlandia, and the 3rd at Cranberry (if that counts), this is why C/J would have the high standing for Challenger's Series. It doesn't negate that they are hit or miss with their sbs jumps.

People often criticize Ash for some under-rotation issues on occasion, but I'm not nervous about her & Timothy's ability to land sbs jumps. While with C/J, I'm always on pins and needles when they move into sbs jumps. Everything else is fabulous and world class for C/J, except they could use improvements on their throws, which they've said was an issue for them because they have different throw jump techniques. Generally, Jessica is able to land like a cat, even if she's leaning in the air. She has a strong core and beautiful positions on lifts. Their SS, speed and ice coverage are phenomenal. C/J's 3-twist is to-die-for and the best in the world right along with T/M's. Still, C/J have to put it all together on a more consistent basis.

Ash/Timothy have showed grit, and the judges seemed, at least at NHK, to respect them better when they've skated clean programs. Plus, A&T are constantly making improvements. Ash is landing her throws without leaning forward so much. I love their lines, and their purposeful intention toward how they present together on the ice. They are maximizing what they can do with lifts, despite not being as strong in that area. Still they get the job done on lifts, and they have good speed. I'll never forget how gritty they were in throwing in a 3-twist early in their partnership. They went for it, and then they were able to fine-tune.

My main point is, right now C/J and C-G/LD are pretty close in terms of overall assessments, with Ash/Timothy having a couple more years together, and an ability to show strong improvements every season. They have good programs this season too. In terms of past U.S. Nationals, C/J have placed 5th, 2nd, and 2nd. A&T have been 3rd, 4th, 1st, 4th, and 3rd. In this season's competitions to date, C/J are 3rd, 4th, 5th, 2nd, and 6th. A&T have placed 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, and 4th (and they had to withdraw from Cranberry Cup).

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

I think Misha struggled with the lifts because Audrey did grow, a lot, since they were paired.

Nope. Misha had an injured wrist, which was still healing around the time of Cranberry Cup (a reason why they didn't score as well as they might have there). I seriously doubt there's any issue with either Audrey's height or her weight. Misha is a big, strong guy, and he can easily handle Audrey's wisp of a frame. (Figure of speech, as I know she has muscles). But also give Audrey credit for having a strong core and doing her part on the lifts.

 

[skylark]

Nope.

But she did grow a lot since they first began to skate together.

Misha had an injured wrist, which was still healing around the time of Cranberry Cup (a reason why they didn't score as well as they might have there). I seriously doubt there's any issue with either Audrey's height or her weight. Misha is a big, strong guy, and he can easily handle Audrey's wisp of a frame. (Figure of speech, as I know she has muscles). But also give Audrey credit for having a strong core and doing her part on the lifts.

When I referenced Misha's lifts with Audrey, I was talking about years, not months. I re-watched 2019 Nationals recently, where Charlie White and Michael Weiss mentioned admiringly how Misha struggled with at least one of the lifts, and still was able to "strong-arm" it up. It's been since about that time that I've noticed it. But of course, I have no idea whether my impression for the reason is accurate or not; it's just speculation based on an observation that she was growing taller (and to me it seemed rather swiftly) since they debuted as seniors in fall 2018. I've enjoyed and admired Audrey and Misha both from the time I first watched them at the 2018 International Classic. My remark wasn't a negative reflection on Audrey's height or weight, at all. Just a reference that it seemed to me that she was growing in height, which is of course normal around that age.

Your implication, or misunderstanding -- that I was making negative remarks about Audrey's size or Misha's strength -- isn't correct. I want to emphasize that. Many things can make adjustments in technique necessary. I probably should have used the word "technique" earlier so there wouldn't be a misunderstanding.

I'll quote what I actually said, because I'm genuinely puzzled that you thought I meant something negative about "an issue" with Audrey's height or weight. I know I'm repeating myself, but I want to be very clear to everyone that that's not what I meant.

I think Misha struggled with the lifts because Audrey did grow, a lot, since they were paired. I saw a picture of them once, early on, when she looked barely above his waist!

 

[labgoat]

BTW, it was Tai & Randy who inspired my passion for pairs skating, and for figure skating generally. I hope you have a copy of their book, Skating Two As One, with Martha Lowder Kimball.

I have a copy. Tai was the first skater I saw close to my age and I became an instant fan. I learned spread eagles, Ina Bauers and of course pull Arabians because of them.

 

[labgoat]

Nope. Misha had an injured wrist, which was still healing around the time of Cranberry Cup (a reason why they didn't score as well as they might have there). I seriously doubt there's any issue with either Audrey's height or her weight. Misha is a big, strong guy, and he can easily handle Audrey's wisp of a frame. (Figure of speech, as I know she has muscles). But also give Audrey credit for having a strong core and doing her part on the lifts.

I'd also like to give her credit for a beautiful leg position in her overhead lift. So many ladies legs just sort of hang there while hers are stretched and widely split.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

@skylark, I was not responding for you to become offended. I didn't think you were making negative remarks. Thanks for your further explanation. My response was specifically because I knew that Misha had a wrist injury, as far back as before U.S. Nationals 2021. He had it taken care of during the recent off-season, I suppose. Anyway, Misha spoke about how it was still healing around the time of Cranberry Cup, which they attributed to some of their troubles there.

In general, now that you mention it, I would say simply that lifts are not their strongest suit altogether. Especially after Misha suffered the injury, they would visibly struggle a bit more on lifts. Any changes in Audrey's height means they have had to make adjustments on everything over the years. Misha has surely gone through physical changes as well, not just Audrey. I would expect that their coaches have known how to guide them as two young people going through growth spurts. It's probably a matter of adjusting timing and rhythm, at the same time that they haven't fully mastered some technical aspects regarding lifts. Since you mentioned height, that would be a factor in making a number of adjustments. I'm the one who added weight, because Audrey is thin and she has a small frame. In that respect, no matter how tall she is, weight should not be a factor. But yes, I'm the one who mentioned weight. Another aspect, is how adept Audrey is in carrying her weight and having a strong core, which helps her partner in doing his job on the lifts, etc.

By now, it's likely that both Misha and Audrey have reached their adult height. It is rather interesting thinking about this aspect of how pairs works -- the ins and the outs, which can be different, easier or harder for every team. Probably every team experiences physical changes over time that require them making adjustments every so often, not just young, growing teams.

Again, I knew Misha had an injury and that's a direct reason why they were recently struggling. But as you say, they've had some lift issues previously. So all-in-all, looking back, I think it's fairly clear that as a young, developing team, Misha and Audrey are still working on improving their lifts, and that aspect of their skating isn't quite as strong as other aspects.

 

[dorispulaski]

@BlissfulSynergy The only point I was trying to make (apparently unsuccessfully) was why Timothy and Ashley finished behind Jessica and Brian in the final Challengers standings.

In fact, you are entirely wrong about everything you thought I was trying to say. If I were to leave a team home from the Olympics, it would be Knierim and Frazier. All the teams we have been discussing have enough skills to go. None of them are likely to medal, other than in the team event.

The questions are,
1. which one of the five top US teams, in alphabetical order: Cain-Gribble/Leduc, Calalang & Johnson, Knierim & Frazier, Liu & O'Shea, and Lu & Mitrafanov are most likely to place higher in the SP in the team event.
2. Which team is most likely to place higher in the FS in the team event, if USFS decides one pair does the SP but not the FS
3. which two teams have earned the spots by their BOW and placing at Nationals
4. and perhaps as a tie breaker, which team would profit most from an Olympic experience, and has more upside for the future.

The answer to the fourth question for me, is Lu & Mitrofanov, who have never been to Worlds or Olympics and are the youngest, but that is just a tie breaker.

I will let the rest of you answer the other questions.

 

[coldblueeyes]

Based on the season so far, I don’t think C/J give any advantage over the other teams when it comes to the TE, which is where they are going to get the highest results. None of the American teams are in the conversation for a podium at the Olympics so thinking only about potential scores is kind of a moot point when none of them have the potential to medal.

K/F and C/L are the top teams, and in this order for SP and FS in the team event. If L/M were to win top 2 at Nationals they might spoil this. C/J only winning Nationals for me. But that’s IMO.

At this point Japan is super close to the US in the race for silver, and finding a team that could beat the Japanese would be ideal. Beating the Canadians also wouldn’t hurt, with the way J/R also grew recently, and how the US is kind of unsure with the ladies too. No one would want to be pinned as the reason why the medal didn’t come.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

^^ Thanks for your further explanation @dorispulaski. Okay, sorry. Now I get that you were just offering up the stats, and that you didn't intend any negativity toward Ash/Timothy. I got the impression you might have a soft spot for C/J. I know I do, but by this point, I think C/J need time to focus on getting their jumps in order. I mean, really in order. It's the main thing holding them back. They have such great quality, it would be a shame if they don't fulfill their wonderful potential. They should be actively strategizing and preparing toward being the #1 U.S. pair over the next quad. They can't get there by doing the same-old routine things that aren't working. Wishing and hoping won't help either, without concrete, viable strategies and the ability to take risks and try something new.

There's just no guarantee that even if C/J skate well at U.S. Nationals that they will not revert back to hiccoughs on the jumps at the Olympics, if they are sent. I truly believe that many U.S. fed members prefer to send K/F and C/J to the Olympics. Ideally, that would be the best prospect, if both teams were confident and consistent. Right now, K/F are having issues with their twist, in addition to miscues here and there on elements that are in their wheelhouse! Meagan Duhamel was on TSL discussing Golden Spin today. She indicated that K/F and coaches were retooling the twist because they'd been receiving 2s on it, and they want to increase those numbers. This isn't a great time though to be fiddling with technique on their twist. It hasn't seemed to help at all.

Meanwhile, C/J are sadly unreliable on their sbs jumps. If they get it together in one program, they often have glitches on sbs jumps in their other program. It's like one step forward, two steps back. They are kept in it, simply by the quality of their other elements. After this season, if I were C/J, I'd try to get help from an expert on improving their throw technique. They get good height, but not great distance. And Jessica saves a lot of landings because she's sometimes leaning in the air. She has a very strong core and she often lands like a cat, with great follow-through, although their throws aren't completely consistent.

I'll respond to the questions @dorispulaski posed, in a separate post.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

none of them have the potential to medal.

Yeah, politically and perception-wise at this point, it's unlikely for U.S. pairs to medal in singles at the Olympics since the podium is frankly being reserved for Russians and Chinese teams, no matter how teams from those countries skate. Also, the Japanese pair if they remain consistent will definitely be scored well, when at 2021 Worlds, they were in 10th place behind both U.S. teams.

OTOH, I don't think it's exactly correct to say U.S. pairs don't have potential to medal. A lot of unexpected things can and have happened in the sport. While it is unlikely because of the love for Russian teams, and the current love for the Japanese pair, U.S. pairs teams skating to their potential would at least be a victory for them. Any team could do well among the top 8 or so, if they skate to their potential, and if political perceptions and PCS manipulation were not involved in the scoring. In any case, the U.S. should once again be able to compete well for a team medal at the Olympics. Once retirements happen after the Olympics, U.S. pairs teams are definitely in the running for pulling out a medal at Worlds. The fact that you don't think so is indicative of the dismissive attitude toward some extremely talented U.S. pairs teams who possess fantastic potential. If the politics and perceptions continue to be against U.S. pairs, it will continue to be hard for them breaking through to the top, in addition to facing the normal difficulties involved in pairs skating.

U.S. teams are knee-deep in potential, and everybody in skating knows that! It's just this knee-jerk dismissiveness, and unwillingness to give U.S. pairs the scores they deserve when they skate well. That is all part of the politics. There are a lot of pressures U.S. teams are facing, as a result. Meanwhile, Russian teams at the top can make mistakes and still receive high scores. U.S. teams have to keep proving and proving themselves, and fighting for respect to get credit for what they are good at. I do believe that there is an inbred conceit against the U.S., stemming from the 1950s era when the U.S. began to dominate the sport. The U.S. had to contend with European block judging for many years. Anyway, a book could be written about figure skating politics' effects on scoring results.

The fact that U.S. pairs were so close to securing a third spot at 2021 Worlds, but didn't get it, is an issue because U.S. pairs depth currently is second behind only Russia. There's a lot I want to say, and I could go on forever, because fundamentally I think there is first a problem with the sport's competitive structure, which isn't easy to fix. So, they continue with the detrimental politics, poor judging, conflicts of interest. And they absolutely fail to grow the sport. Of course, fs is big in Russia, Japan, and maybe South Korea, and it's respected in China. In the U.S., fs serves as an every four years topic of conversation and interest at the Olympics. The rest of the time, fs is way on the backburner in the U.S. The sport needs to be more popular in the U.S. And I don't think that's only about having stars on the podium, because we do have really great stars in men's and ice dance. The pairs division to me is exciting, and should be a big part of the conversation, but it never is. It's an afterthought, while there are so many wonderful personalities in pairs in the U.S. and around the world. Plus, pairs is difficult, athletic, exciting. More should be done to promote pairs in the U.S. and worldwide. They don't seem to know how to effectively promote the sport.

A big problem is that the sport is still stuck in the Victorian age in how they conduct business. Plus, they threw out figures completely, which is the basic foundation of how the sport developed. There's too much politics, and the scoring system has always been problematic. Particularly, U.S. fed runs like a Mom/Pop entity. Until some of these problematic issues change, we're gonna get more of the same frustrations. The skaters really need more opportunities for development, plus better assistance for their mental as well as physical well-being.

I've always felt that the federations and the ISU should reach out to different organizations and experts to solve some of these problems (for example, a company like Better-Up, which Prince Harry is working with). They need movement specialists and people who understand performance qualities and how to measure performance attributes. But new ways of thinking won't happen because they are too stuck-in-the-mud, and head-in-the-sand. They are never ahead of the curve in this sport. And the skaters, the coaches, the skating community and the fans continue to put up with all the frustrations, I suppose because many are afraid to speak out due to the endemic politics, and fear of backlash.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

K/F and C/L are the top teams, and in this order for SP and FS in the team event.

I tend to agree with this. I was thinking about possible Olympic team selection. This is a possibility only if both of these teams are sent to the Olympics. However, aren't the rules that two disciplines must have one team or one skater do both sp and fp? In that case, I believe Nathan is going to do the sp, and it's between Vincent and Jason for the fp in the team event (Jason has an Olympic team medal from 2014).

For dance, they need to allow Hub/Don and Chock/Bates to skate, IMO. So that leaves the necessity to choose one lady for both sp and fp, and one pair team for both sp and fp. Thus, I think the choice would be K/F. I'm not sure who would be chosen for ladies. At 2018 Olympics, Nathan and Adam skated, as I recall, in the team event; Bradie and Mirai skated for U.S. ladies; the Knierims skated both programs for U.S. pairs; and the Shibutanis skated both programs for ice dance, which worked well for them, but I thought it was sad for Hub/Don not being able to get a team medal in 2018. They should have their chance this time around.

The questions are,
1. which one of the five top US teams, in alphabetical order: Cain-Gribble/Leduc, Calalang & Johnson, Knierim & Frazier, Liu & O'Shea, and Lu & Mitrafanov are most likely to place higher in the SP in the team event.
2. Which team is most likely to place higher in the FS in the team event, if USFS decides one pair does the SP but not the FS
3. which two teams have earned the spots by their BOW and placing at Nationals
4. and perhaps as a tie breaker, which team would profit most from an Olympic experience, and has more upside for the future.

These may not be the same questions asked by the committee, or the questions might be framed differently by the committee. We don't know. Some committee members may already have their minds made up even before U.S. Nationals takes place.

But I will take a stab at answering the questions how you've posed them:

1. Liu/O'Shea are unlikely to be sent to the Olympics. They may not even be at U.S. Nationals. Chelsea has huge problems with her jumps, and they are a new partnership this season. Hopefully, they will heal and be able to come back, and improve together. They have something special together, but it needs to be further developed. Lu/Mitrofanov are consistent currently, but they don't get high PCS, and their lifts aren't the strongest. C-G/LD have a very good sp, and they've been pretty consistent, but they aren't always solid, probably due to nerves. But the same could be said about K/F and C/J who are the two teams with the most high scoring potential in both programs. As I said in my previous post, unless the rule has changed, only two disciplines are allowed to have different teams or singles skaters to compete in sp and fp. So I think only one U.S. pairs team is going to be chosen to skate both sp and fp in the team event. I could be wrong, but I think the U.S. will more likely give two ice dance teams an opportunity to compete in the team event. And it's a sure bet that Nathan is only going to skate his sp in the team event, so either Vincent or Jason will skate the fp. And thus one lady will need to be chosen to skate sp and fp.

So, this is not a cut-and-dried answer. It's not that simple. But I guess I answered it. If K/F are sent, they will be chosen to skate both programs, which might be helpful for them to prepare for the singles event. I would say that K/F do probably have the most well-rounded potential to score well on tech and PCS. But they have to be on their game. They can't be having issues with their twist or hiccoughs on their best elements.

2. I think C-G/LD have the best fp, with C/J a close second, except for their unreliable sbs jumps. So I would go with C-G/LD, but as I said, it looks like only one pairs team will be chosen to skate both programs.

3. K/F, despite being newly paired in 2020. I think their past experience with other partners can't be ignored. And they have the most well-rounded potential and overall pairs experience at the moment. They are very good together, but they have to figure out what's going on with their twist, and settle the nerves too. As a new team, they still have good BOW together. It's a close second between C-G/LD and C/J. If not for their sbs jump headaches, C/J would be an easy second pick. But C-G/LD have a slightly better fp, along with a better sp, and they did very well when the odds were against them this fall, and that should count in any assessment. Ash/Timothy got 70 in the sp at NHK. Still, all this is moot because only one pairs team is likely to be chosen for the team event.

4. Any teams that are chosen can profit from the Olympics experience. As I said earlier, I'm leaning toward K/F and C-G/LD for the Olympics. If there were 3 spots like they should have secured, it obviously would make selections somewhat easier. I don't think U.S. fed has the luxury of sending a young pairs team to the Olympics just for the experience, especially with only two spots available. But it isn't out of the question that U.S. fed selection committee might think in terms of giving a young team Olympics experience, because Olympics results don't determine the following year's Worlds spots. Certainly, there has seemed to be a push, understandably, behind providing opportunities for Lu/Mitrofanov. Skaters need to compete in order to improve. But we could just as easily say that C/J need the experience and are first in line with the upside for the future (if they repair their jumps).

I would just send L/M, C/J, and Chan/Howe to 4CCs; and send K/F and C-G/LD to the Olympics. It's not always about sending somebody for experience, which is why I was against Vincent and Karen being selected for the Olympics in 2018. I thought the selection in men's should have been between Adam and Vincent, not Ross and Adam. With Jason tanking, Ross and Adam should have both been chosen. There was more time for Vincent. Also, Ashley should have been given that last Olympics opportunity over Karen, who truthfully was not ready for that experience -- she had boot issues, etc.

For 2022 Worlds, I would send K/F and C/J. Hopefully, these two teams would manage at a transitional Worlds (with some top teams retired after the Olympics) to place well enough to obtain 3 spots for U.S. pairs. L/M need to continue developing and going in the positive direction they are heading. They probably don't need the huge pressure of Worlds competition right now, when the U.S. must try to secure 3 spots. Getting experience at 4CCs would be good for L/M, and they could be first alternate for Worlds and second alternate for the Olympics.

 

[coldblueeyes]

I tend to agree with this. I was thinking about possible Olympic team selection. This is a possibility only if both of these teams are sent to the Olympics. However, aren't the rules that two disciplines must have one team or one skater do both sp and fp? In that case, I believe Nathan is going to do the sp, and it's between Vincent and Jason for the fp in the team event (Jason has an Olympic team medal from 2014).

I made this prediction on the assumption that they care for pairs. But of course, I don’t think they would send two pairs. At the moment, either K/F and C/L are about the same in numbers for the TE.

 

[coldblueeyes]

Yeah, politically and perception-wise at this point, it's unlikely for U.S. pairs to medal in singles at the Olympics since the podium is frankly being reserved for Russians and Chinese teams, no matter how teams from those countries skate. Also, the Japanese pair if they remain consistent will definitely be scored well, when at 2021 Worlds, they were in 10th place behind both U.S. teams.

OTOH, I don't think it's exactly correct to say U.S. pairs don't have potential to medal. A lot of unexpected things can and have happened in the sport.

I don’t disagree with most of your post, especially with regards to the US being the second in pairs, and in the number of current athletes. But I just don’t think at this point there’s a purely political problem for the US. It’s definitely there, but performing has been something that hindered them a lot.

Just look at the overwhelming reaction L/M received just for not faltering in a competition where most did? Their scores would barely land them in the top 6 at last Worlds, and these were not the most competitive Worlds in recent years.

But of course, on the right day, anything can happen.

 

[TontoK]

I don’t disagree with most of your post, especially with regards to the US being the second in pairs, and in the number of current athletes. But I just don’t think at this point there’s a purely political problem for the US. It’s definitely there, but performing has been something that hindered them a lot.

Just look at the overwhelming reaction L/M received just for not faltering in a competition where most did? Their scores would barely land them in the top 6 at last Worlds, and these were not the most competitive Worlds in recent years.

But of course, on the right day, anything can happen.

Not speaking for others, but my personal positive reaction to L/M was that they actually held it together and skated a very good, pretty clean competition. They had their chance and didn't toss it away. I find them appealing, but I'm not fooled into thinking they are currently a major podium threat.

Honestly, isn't a clean competition something to celebrate? An international win? We haven't had a whole lot of those in recent years from our pairs. My recollection is a lot of "if only they hadn't fallen... they COULD have medaled if... except for that wonky element... excuses, excuses, excuses, etc. etc. etc.."

My hope is that they take this deserved win and gain the confidence to improve their performance and put a little swagger into the elements.

 

[skatefan17]

Yeah, politically and perception-wise at this point, it's unlikely for U.S. pairs to medal in singles at the Olympics since the podium is frankly being reserved for Russians and Chinese teams, no matter how teams from those countries skate. Also, the Japanese pair if they remain consistent will definitely be scored well, when at 2021 Worlds, they were in 10th place behind both U.S. teams.

OTOH, I don't think it's exactly correct to say U.S. pairs don't have potential to medal. A lot of unexpected things can and have happened in the sport. While it is unlikely because of the love for Russian teams, and the current love for the Japanese pair, U.S. pairs teams skating to their potential would at least be a victory for them. Any team could do well among the top 8 or so, if they skate to their potential, and if political perceptions and PCS manipulation were not involved in the scoring. In any case, the U.S. should once again be able to compete well for a team medal at the Olympics. Once retirements happen after the Olympics, U.S. pairs teams are definitely in the running for pulling out a medal at Worlds. The fact that you don't think so is indicative of the dismissive attitude toward some extremely talented U.S. pairs teams who possess fantastic potential. If the politics and perceptions continue to be against U.S. pairs, it will continue to be hard for them breaking through to the top, in addition to facing the normal difficulties involved in pairs skating.

U.S. teams are knee-deep in potential, and everybody in skating knows that! It's just this knee-jerk dismissiveness, and unwillingness to give U.S. pairs the scores they deserve when they skate well. That is all part of the politics. There are a lot of pressures U.S. teams are facing, as a result. Meanwhile, Russian teams at the top can make mistakes and still receive high scores. U.S. teams have to keep proving and proving themselves, and fighting for respect to get credit for what they are good at. I do believe that there is an inbred conceit against the U.S., stemming from the 1950s era when the U.S. began to dominate the sport. The U.S. had to contend with European block judging for many years. Anyway, a book could be written about figure skating politics' effects on scoring results.

The fact that U.S. pairs were so close to securing a third spot at 2021 Worlds, but didn't get it, is an issue because U.S. pairs depth currently is second behind only Russia. There's a lot I want to say, and I could go on forever, because fundamentally I think there is first a problem with the sport's competitive structure, which isn't easy to fix. So, they continue with the detrimental politics, poor judging, conflicts of interest. And they absolutely fail to grow the sport. Of course, fs is big in Russia, Japan, and maybe South Korea, and it's respected in China. In the U.S., fs serves as an every four years topic of conversation and interest at the Olympics. The rest of the time, fs is way on the backburner in the U.S. The sport needs to be more popular in the U.S. And I don't think that's only about having stars on the podium, because we do have really great stars in men's and ice dance. The pairs division to me is exciting, and should be a big part of the conversation, but it never is. It's an afterthought, while there are so many wonderful personalities in pairs in the U.S. and around the world. Plus, pairs is difficult, athletic, exciting. More should be done to promote pairs in the U.S. and worldwide. They don't seem to know how to effectively promote the sport.

A big problem is that the sport is still stuck in the Victorian age in how they conduct business. Plus, they threw out figures completely, which is the basic foundation of how the sport developed. There's too much politics, and the scoring system has always been problematic. Particularly, U.S. fed runs like a Mom/Pop entity. Until some of these problematic issues change, we're gonna get more of the same frustrations. The skaters really need more opportunities for development, plus better assistance for their mental as well as physical well-being.

I've always felt that the federations and the ISU should reach out to different organizations and experts to solve some of these problems (for example, a company like Better-Up, which Prince Harry is working with). They need movement specialists and people who understand performance qualities and how to measure performance attributes. But new ways of thinking won't happen because they are too stuck-in-the-mud, and head-in-the-sand. They are never ahead of the curve in this sport. And the skaters, the coaches, the skating community and the fans continue to put up with all the frustrations, I suppose because many are afraid to speak out due to the endemic politics, and fear of backlash.

Great post. These are all such interesting points! I have really been getting more interested in pairs lately and have noticed a slight scoring bias against US pairs. I do think US pairs also need more ultra-c elements and more jump consistency before they really jump up in the standings internationally. It is SUCH an athletic discipline and I agree that better marketing and opportunities should be available to promote the sport.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

Great post. These are all such interesting points! I have really been getting more interested in pairs lately and have noticed a slight scoring bias against US pairs. I do think US pairs also need more ultra-c elements and more jump consistency before they really jump up in the standings internationally. It is SUCH an athletic discipline and I agree that better marketing and opportunities should be available to promote the sport.

Yep! PAIRS is the most difficult discipline of all. Two people skating together, and having to be in unison with the most advanced and difficult athletic feats on hard, unyielding ice that have ever been performed. The best pairs teams execute very risky moves while making it look oh so easy.

Case in point: Look how smooth and flowing James/Radford are at their best. This is why it's so annoying and unfair that the judges at Golden Spin decided to dump on them in the PCS scores. J/R are much smoother than many of the young teams at GS who were scored comparable to them in PCS categories where J/R are superior! J/R got it together in their fp at GS. Plus, they still performed well in the sp. It's just that missing an entire element will drop your scores. But they should have been rated at least around 69 to 71 coming in, and lost may 9 to 10 points total (6.84 loss on the twist). Protocols show J/R usually score 5.70 with 1.14 GOE on their twist, so that's a loss of 6.84 points on that missed element. Judges took off for their 3S too in the sp. But I question some of the other low GOE marks for J/R in the sp and fp, and the lowball scores for them on PCS in both programs.

If you take a look at the protocols, it's obvious that a number of skaters are being either over-scored or under-scored in various categories. I notice that the judges tend to decrease GOE on well-executed elements when skaters make mistakes elsewhere in their programs. The PCS marks were just wrong for many of the top finishing teams. C/J got 3s on their 3-twist across the board in the sp. They should always be receiving 4s and 5s on that element. They make it look so easy, always with huge height and clean catches the majority of the time. It is their best element. It's rare to see any kind of miss from them on that element. In the fp, what were the judges who gave C/J 2s on their 3-twist actually looking at? There were three 3s, three 2s, and only one 4 on C/J's fp twist. That's mind-boggling scoring. The 2s are simply wrong and outrageous. I could go on, but take a look for yourselves, if you want to be frustrated:

http://granuli.hr/gs2021/html/53GS2021_PAIRS_SP_Scores.pdf

http://granuli.hr/gs2021/html/53GS2021_PAIRS_FS_Scores.pdf

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

US pairs also need more ultra-c elements and more jump consistency before they really jump up in the standings internationally.

I'm sorry, what's ultra-c elements? A lot of teams need more jump consistency before moving up in the standings, but some newer senior international teams (probably coming up from juniors, such as the Georgian teams), while they look good and have great potential, these teams are being rated in the same PCS range as J/R and the U.S. teams. I think that's wrong, as the more experienced North American teams are superior in some of the categories where they were rated the same as less mature teams. I mean take off for mistakes, and poor execution, but give credit where it's actually due!

The Georgian teams are still inexperienced and a bit more rough around the edges. They are not entirely consistent on their jumps, but that's overlooked. They have something special, but they still need seasoning and further development. However, it looks like the judges are ready to rush these teams to the top. I think mid-60s is more accurate for these teams until they develop better speed, consistency, smooth flow, and polish in their execution. J/R, K/F and C/J are much more polished and mature. C/J have excellent speed, ice coverage, and SS, but they were greatly low-balled on SS in the PCS marks, and dumped on for their top-notch 3-twist.

 

[BlissfulSynergy]

Not speaking for others, but my personal positive reaction to L/M was that they actually held it together and skated a very good, pretty clean competition. They had their chance and didn't toss it away. I find them appealing, but I'm not fooled into thinking they are currently a major podium threat.

Honestly, isn't a clean competition something to celebrate? An international win? We haven't had a whole lot of those in recent years from our pairs. My recollection is a lot of "if only they hadn't fallen... they COULD have medaled if... except for that wonky element... excuses, excuses, excuses, etc. etc. etc.."

My hope is that they take this deserved win and gain the confidence to improve their performance and put a little swagger into the elements.

I agree re L/M. They've always been good technically as a young team. They need to be stronger on lifts, and work more on projection and connection, plus music interpretation. But they are making some progress, and trying different things, like the Chaplin program from 2020 - 2021 season.

Swagger and confidence comes when you see the judges consistently rewarding you. As well as they skate, L/M would be getting higher points if they were skating for Russia. Misha's ancestry is Russian, but I think he was born in the U.S., or his parents came here when he was young. In general, L/M are probably scored fairly most of the time, but they are seen as politically behind some other U.S. teams, which hurts perception of them to some extent. And they aren't skating for Russia -- you tend to get extra points when you are a Russian pairs team.

Granted, most Russian pairs (not all) have great technical elements. But when newer Russian teams come on the scene, they are given high points right off the bat, especially when skating in Russia! No surprise. For example, Artemeva/Nazarychev are comparable to L/M as they are both younger teams. L/M are a bit more experienced on the senior circuit, but receive little respect for having more experience. There's not a lot of daylight between these two teams, yet at Rostelecom Cup, the judges ensured there was a lot of daylight in the sp scoring, when both teams skated well. The scores should have been tighter between these two pairs. A/N are a very promising team, but they are still learning. Yet they were automatically given relatively high PCS, when they still need development in some of those categories.

Part of the problem, which simply can't be discounted, is there's an ingrained perception that U.S. pairs are not up to snuff, no matter how much they've improved, and how competitive they actually are. The judges at Finlandia desired to place Hase/Seegert and the new team from Spain, Barquero/Zandron in front of a clean and lovely sp by Ash/Timothy. Meanwhile, B/Z are very promising, but still new and lack speed; they have an excellent twist and other promising elements, but they have to develop consistency and less tentativeness because they are new to competing together and still fairly young. Zandron is Italian, which is a boost for them politically. I'm just telling it like it is.

In addition, H/S are a nice, competitive team, but they are fairly average in most of their elements, and they aren't always consistent, despite sometimes performing relatively cleanly. Neither B/Z, nor H/S should have edged Ash/Timothy in the sp at Finlandia. There was a course correction in the fp when Ash/Timothy still skated well, and the other two teams' weaknesses couldn't be ignored by the judges. Poor scoring and political scoring abounds in the sport of figure skating. And don't let me even get into the current judging in ice dance! Such a can of devious squirmy worms.