I don't agree that statement. It's definitely true that Green/Parsons have been stronger in the RD than H/B were at their one event so far, but if I'm understanding you right you''re not just talking about the RD here. You're saying that unless H/B improve significantly, they'll lose to G/P overall at Nats, right? The scores this season don't really support that.Since we have looked at US teams versus each other, let's see how they competed this season.
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So if you were USFSA, would you send anyone in the top two places to the Olympics, other than C&B and H&D?
The question is whether you leave Hawayek & Baker in third. Unless H&B improve significantly before Nationals, they will not finish third there. The question then will be do they go to Olympics on Body of Work.
The World's team is also a consideration. C&B are staying in, but H&D say they are retiring after this season. They might or might not choose to go to Worlds.
I think G&P, H&B, and C&P need to go to 4CCs to fight it out for the third spot on the US team.
For the record, H/B scored a 187.62 at Rostelecom. That's less than one point lower than G/P's best score this season, 188.43 at ACI (also got 187.84 at Warsaw with errors, but the scores there were really high all around). G/P's best on the Grand Prix was 186.51. So right now these two teams are scoring right in the same range. It's definitely not a sure thing that H/B beat G/P at Nats, but they aren't way behind at this point.