It will be very interesting to see what the numbers do compared to last summer in the US. As I traveled around the western US last year, I check the local case numbers and for many rural places, they were very low. Until the end of my Utah trip in Sept......this year, we have the vax and we have a very wide spread virus with varients springing up everywhere....here is the US pre Superbowl going back to August and forwards in time to June. Daily deaths are trending down. If the Superbowl has an effect on deaths, it should show up about April as the deaths lag the cases by roughly 17 day....
On my list, the world championships are essential too. Does my list count for anything? Hahaha
the boycott of Beijing games is not about covid though.. it's about many things, mostly human rights.
Interesting thoughts. Have you made any thought if this includes different scenarios where the different mutants will be dominant? The reason I ask is that in Norway the numbers have been quite low recently and we didn´t have the big wave after the Christmas holiday as feared, numbers did actually go down a little (we had very strict restrictions at the beginning of the year) at the same time we are finding more and more cases now of B117 cases. Now the numbers aren´t decreasing but it has stagnated.
It works, better than other recombined vaccines, but as with all other products, particularly those working to elicit antibodies targeting the spike protein, they don't "work" enough to allow people to fool around, even after the second jab, it would even be the opposite (need for more prudence) given what we see; specially where new variants have been detected because these products are not efficient against them. These new variants (UK, South Africa and Brazil) with nearly all their mutations on this very spike protein (while until now, mutations would occur anywhere) seem to have been fostered in people who have had something done against spike protein (probability very near 1). My guess (plus, developing new mutations would have been faster given that the beginning of the trial was with 1 + 1 doses, with very low efficacy, before opting for ½ + 1, more efficient) :So it does work? I'm just concerned because it's got such bad press and if it doesn't work, but all the Russian skaters and coaches think it does they may take unnecessary risks. In which case they should be removed from the competition, which would be a huge blow
There are several factors to consider about the new strain and they are all related in a difficult multi variable problem. 1. The growth in numbers vs. the achieved total numbers. Judging by your graph, the first one is high but the second one is still quite small. 2. The severity of the new strain. If is the same or worse, that's one story. If it is similar to flu let alone common cold - it is another one. There's a saying in Russia: if you are burned by milk you will blow at the cold water. 3. The effect of vaccines and secondary immunity on a new strain. 4. The negative consequences of the quarantine vs. humanitarian and other aspects of the lenient approach (what Sweden had and Russia has now).Interesting thoughts. Have you made any thought if this includes different scenarios where the different mutants will be dominant? The reason I ask is that in Norway the numbers have been quite low recently and we didn´t have the big wave after the Christmas holiday as feared, numbers did actually go down a little (we had very strict restrictions at the beginning of the year) at the same time we are finding more and more cases now of B117 cases. Now the numbers aren´t decreasing but it has stagnated.
We expect though the numbers to rise again soon because it seems the B117 is getting dominant and there are several big outbreaks going on. We even have cases now with the South African-strain where they havn´t found patient zero yet, so we might have two mutations that could be dominant. So what we experience could be demonstrated in this figure which illustrates the situation in Denmark as well.
Numbers could be having a temporary decline because the old variants are dying, while the B117 is increasing. B117 is so contagious that you need harder restrictions to keep it under control - that might explain why the old variants is having such a decline.
To give you an illustration of how difficult B117 is to keep under control: We have a big outbreak in a small village in Norway by the fjords, there is 1000 inhabitants living there. There have just been a few isolated cases before. Until last week. There was a family who came back from Italy (visiting family). They followed every rule and was quarantined for 10 days as they should, and tested negative at day 10. So they were done with the quarantine and started going to work and school. At day 11 or 12 they developed symptoms, isolated themselves and tested positive for the B117. The last days there have been detected 80 cases in the town, and there are probably a few more. 500 people are in quarantine now because of that, which means half the village is affected. And 5% of the inhabitants have already tested positive in this breakout.
It seems 10 days of quarantine is not enough for the B117. When the pandemic started we had 14 days in Norway, but they changed it to 10 days some months later because it seemed it was enough for the old variant. Old distant rule seems also to not be efficient now. Old restrictions is not enough to prevent such outbreaks.
Because of that I think we will see an increase in Europe when the B117 will be fully dominant, and numbers will start rise. I´m not sure though how the situation is outside Europe, so there might be a increase in Europe but still a decrease worldwide.
The B117-threat is also the reason now why Sweden is having more restrictions.
Mutations can go both way, they can get milder or worse. So far there isn´t any indication that the B117 is milder, there are still people being hospitalized and need for unit care. There are even suggestions that younger people are getting sicker by this mutation. The effect of vaccines is of course something we should use in the calculation which could be a game changer. But it won´t happen that fast. If i´m lucky I will get the first dose maybe by July. That´s the plan here in Norway for my age group. I don´t think the situation will be much better by the end of March. Maybe 250 000 daily cases in July would be my guess. We know from last spring the we experienced a rapid fall in new cases, because the measures had worked. But last spring there wasn´t more contagious mutations. But let´s see again in 3 week how the situation goes
I agree with you but did not want to make any political comments. See PM.
The B-117 variant is already yesterday's news. Now there is a B-117 variant with an E484K mutation thrown in. One pre-release study has shown that original coronavirus antibodies in some people were up to 90% less effective against this new variant.
I heard about this, the scientists have actually named it the "EEK" mutation which doesn't bode well...
Oh no, where is the virus detected? The borders are closed now, so there will hopefully be less imported cases. But the one with residence is of course allowed inside the country.
I mean, I hope it doesn't go nutso anywhere, and I am more concerned about it not reaching here. Weird flex to say you hope it doesn't reach Russia, but okay.I hope it doesn't/hasn't reached Russia.
Well I was just thinking it's more likely to reach Russia, since they don't have strict protocols over there, like do they even do hotel quarantine?
