2022-23 Japanese Men's Figure Skating

[surimi]

Nepela is probably not there since both Kinki and Tohoku regionals are on the exact same week (and JGP Poland). So that leaves Tokyo and Chubu skaters (whose regionals are a week before), Kanto and Chugoku-Shikoku + Kyushu skaters (regionals are a week after) and the National seeds (Shoma, Koshiro, Kazuki).

The only senior Chubu male skater I can see getting a challenger purely based on their result at Nationals last season is Sota (5th) so hopefully he does get a Challenger that is not Nepela. The Chubu women.... Mana was 9th, Rika was 11th, Rino was 13th and Mako was 16th at Nationals... I don't see JSF assigning extra Challengers for Rino or Mako tbh. Rika will probably get Autumn Classic since she's trains in Canada.

For the Tokyo skaters, I wonder what this will mean for the Kao - Shun - Yuma trio mostly (Rinka is 12th and Rion is 14th at Nats so I have similar feelings about them as with the Chubu women). Japan Open is on the same week as Finlandia Trophy (and Kanto and Chugoku-Shikoku + Kyushu regionals), so whoever represents Team Japan there won't get Finlandia. But the money is good there...

JSF having Golden Spin in their calendar is interesting They really don't send their skaters there because of its proximity to GPF and Nationals except for their pairs... last time a singles skater was assigned was in 2013 (Miki Ando). But they do have 2 new pair teams so this can be for them.

Let's just hope the money from Worlds and WTT tickets can get JSF to assign more than 1 skater per each Challenger last year I think they were tight financially since they had to cancel GPF 2021 so late, which was a big loss for them. Based on the amount of skaters in the special funding group this season... I want to hope.

Thanks for the analysis.
I guess I don't see the point in making top skaters do regionals when they clash with more important, international events. It seems like the only purpose is to boost viewership. Literally no other federation deprives their best skaters of Challengers, sans China that works in a way that's mysterious to me, but JSF has so much talent, and their team always draws audience abroad. A part of said talent may lag behind weaker skaters but with more ranking points thanks to more international assignments. I find that disappointing from JSF, and wish the days of them sending almost all of their top 10 came back. Maybe it's some sort of psychology tactic on their side - get a medal on the GP or else you're dropping down the standings - but I do think they, and the skaters, would benefit from more international opportunities. True, they sent a lot in Feb-March, and there's now Asian Open in their calendar, but aside from less points and no SB chance at those, CS is the only pre-GP test of their skaters against international top skaters, and each Challenger is valuable in this respect. Warsaw and Croatia are good to have in the list for sure, but not very practical timing-wise for those who go to GP.

I do hope you're right, and we'll get more JPN skaters on Challengers than last year... many more The audience deserve it too.

I don't think Rino, Rion and Mako will get CS this season (but I'd like to be mistaken), but apart from Kaori/Mai, I'm hopeful for Wakaba, Rika, Mone and Hanna, and Rinka. Among the top men, they could still assign all of their top 10 sans Sumitada, if they assign one of them to Warsaw. But I still remember how gutted I was last year when I hoped for the same. So, better not get my hopes up...

I guess Finlandia's out for Shoma, Kaori, Mai, and either Yuma or Kao, which is my prediction for Japan Open team.

 

[rabidline]

I think it's in the rules that non-seeded skaters have to qualify for Nationals unless under very special circumstances, and since most of the top non-seeded Japanese skaters will miss the East/West Japan Sectionals because of the GP series (which JSF has more limited control on which Japanese skaters gets invited except to NHK), it's likely JSF wants them to at least do one stage of the qualifying, to probably not diminish the importance of Nationals. So the earlier Regionals it is.

I'm glad they do have Warsaw and Croatia because it's actually not a given that most of their top skaters will get 2 GP invitations next season, according to ISU rules. And since it was apparent last year that not every Japanese skater can guarantee more fans traveling and buying tickets to watch them, I can see the other feds being more reserved in inviting them, especially top skaters who can beat their own skaters. You can see the guaranteed spots here:

 

[TallyT]

I guess I don't see the point in making top skaters do regionals when they clash with more important, international events. It seems like the only purpose is to boost viewership.

I don't know. Sure, given that the Japanese TV stations are not happy with the state of ratings at the minute, the JSF could be thinking that maybe competitions with all their own skaters, including the top ones, might be more popular than those where most of the competitors are foreign. On the other hand it's only going to hurt the higher-ranked skaters in the long run. On the other other hand, JSF don't really seem to care much about the skaters' individually or their careers, and sponsors being not happy matters.

And on the other other other hand... what's the chances it will even work?

 

[rabidline]

I don't know. Sure, given that the Japanese TV stations are not happy with the state of ratings at the minute, the JSF could be thinking that maybe competitions with all their own skaters, including the top ones, might be more popular than those where most of the competitors are foreign. On the other hand it's only going to hurt the higher-ranked skaters in the long run. On the other other hand, JSF don't really seem to care much about the skaters' individually or their careers, and sponsors being not happy matters.

And on the other other other hand... what's the chances it will even work?

Honestly I don't see JSF making top skaters do regionals for viewership boost (regionals are only available on Fuji on Demand, which is a streaming service, so not even sure what viewership or ratings are we even talking about here- but honestly they should start broadcasting regionals and sectionals on TV again, make it a local event). I see JSF making top skaters do regionals because that's literally the rule to qualify for nationals. Yes, you're a top skater but are you a Japanese Nationals medalist last year? If you're not, you gotta go through the qualifying rounds. It's literally as simple as that. If a skater doesn't want to go through regionals and/or sectionals then they should aim for the Nationals podium this season.

I do think people who are Nats podium mainstays (example: Shoma, who literally has never competed at a Regional or a Sectional as a senior because he was never not seeded at Nationals as a senior) ends up in a "favored" position by default since it leaves them free for challenger assignment or who knows what else they want to do (late summer ice shows and later program preparation, or even choosing to do the qualifying without worry) without jeopardizing their Nationals spot, which makes it easier for them to plan their season and avoid over-competing and podiuming again at Nationals over other skaters who probably are more exhausted, but that's another story. There's a reason why last year fans were disgruntled over Mai not getting an early Challenger, having to compete both at Regionals and Sectionals because of this rule DESPITE already having 2 GP assignments (because none of her competition dates overlap), and this is when she was literally one step off the podium in the previous Nationals (she was 4th, not 10th). Meanwhile there are other skaters finishing and scoring lower than Mai and having a worse season than Mai at the same point that were able to skip their Sectionals because they have a GP assignment with overlapping schedule (Rika, Rino, Rion- I can see the argument about Rika having a better body of work but still). Is there a viewership boost because Mai had to compete at all of those competitions that we can measure in any way? I don't know.

(Also note that being on the podium at Nationals gave skaters more leeway to do ice shows that's scheduled a bit later in the off-season: Koshiro and Kazuki will be at One Piece on Ice, Koshiro and Mai will be at Friends on Ice. Usually the furthest they can skate is up to The Ice. So that's more money for them, and no need for qualifying).

It might not feel like it's an actual rule since the top of the very top in Japan haven't done them for years by virtue of podiuming at Nationals for 9 years in a row or have special exemption, but it's a rule nonetheless. Now whether that rule needs to be revised or not is another story.

 

[TallyT]

Now whether that rule needs to be revised or not is another story.

I doubt they will. Japan, like every other country, cares about international glory but way more about domestic popularity.

 

[rabidline]

I doubt they will. Japan, like every other country, cares about international glory but way more about domestic popularity.

Yeah, basically the rule to do Regionals and Sectionals to qualify for Nationals is... IDK, reasonable? I mean we have to see how the Challenger assignments will be distributed this year to see (again because I think last year' meagre assignment was an anomaly since JSF had to take a big financial loss because they had to cancel GPF 2021 last minute due to Omicron).

It's a rule, it doesn't care about international glory or domestic popularity. The rule is there when both regionals and sectionals were packed to the gills, the rule is there when no was attendance allowed due to COVID, the rule is there when they broadcast it live on TV, and the rule is there when they put it on streaming. It's the rule. As long as the skaters are skating for Japan and want to skate at Nationals, they have to follow it.

 

[rabidline]

An example is Tatsuki Machida who finished 9th at 2012 Nationals despite having won a GP (2012 Cup of China) and qualified for GPF (finished last). He then didn't get assigned to 4CC or Worlds (obviously, but you can see how JSF made a different decision for Rinka Watanabe last season) but had a CdP assignment to close his season.

The next season (Olympic season), he didn't get assigned at any challenger but only Asian Open, and he had to do both 2013 Kinki Regionals and 2013 West Japan Sectionals in between his GP assignments, 2013 Skate America and 2013 Cup of Russia (so a competition every two weeks, and he won them all). Finished 2nd at 2013 Nationals, and then 5th at Olympics and 2nd at Worlds. But if we think of getting Challengers = advantage to gain WS points, then he was at a disadvantage... and yet he made it to the Olympics anyway and finished respectably high.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

An example is Tatsuki Machida who finished 9th at 2012 Nationals despite having won a GP (2012 Cup of China) and qualified for GPF (finished last). He then didn't get assigned to 4CC or Worlds (obviously, but you can see how JSF made a different decision for Rinka Watanabe last season) but had a CdP assignment to close his season.

The next season (Olympic season), he didn't get assigned at any challenger but only Asian Open, and he had to do both 2013 Kinki Regionals and 2013 West Japan Sectionals in between his GP assignments, 2013 Skate America and 2013 Cup of Russia (so a competition every two weeks, and he won them all). Finished 2nd at 2013 Nationals, and then 5th at Olympics and 2nd at Worlds. But if we think of getting Challengers = advantage to gain WS points, then he was at a disadvantage... and yet he made it to the Olympics anyway and finished respectably high.

Tatsuki is a wonderful example of how momentary setbacks can make a person stronger, and of a skater who peaked at exactly the right time, making it to the Olympics and then going on to win a silver medal at his home Worlds in Saitama the same season.

However, he's not a great example when it comes to how necessary or not Challenger assignments are. Mostly because the Challenger series wasn't established until the 2014/15 season, Tatsuki's last competitive season, when he was a seeded skater for both the GP series and Japanese Nats.

Apart from that, Tatsuki is not the type of skater people are worried about when it comes to Challenger assignments. He had ample opportunity in the 2012/13 season to collect WS points and season's bests by competing in 3 GP events (including GPF) and two additional international competitions. His SB and WS were both in the top 12 in the 2012/13 season so he was a guaranteed GP invitee for 2013/14.
This is not the case for most middling Japanese men. When assigned to only one GP event and one Int. competition, it's very easy for skaters to drop like stones in WS and not manage to score in the top 24 best scores of the season in their only eligible competition. Even when these skaters then go on to place just off the podium at Nats (leading to them not getting Championships assignments), they're unlikely to be getting two GP assignments the following season, meaning they'd have no shot at the GPF even if they are the best they've ever been and end up winning Worlds later in the season. With how short skaters' careers can end up being, missing an opportunity like this can end up in them not ever getting the chance again.
And not to even talk about skaters who might place in the top 8 at Nats every year but never get sent to any significant Int. competitions and thus can never even make it to any GPs.

 

[rabidline]

Apart from that, Tatsuki is not the type of skater people are worried about when it comes to Challenger assignments. He had ample opportunity in the 2012/13 season to collect WS points and season's bests by competing in 3 GP events (including GPF) and two additional international competitions. His SB and WS were both in the top 12 in the 2012/13 season so he was a guaranteed GP invitee for 2013/14.

Tatsuki had 2 GP events (and GPF) in 2012/2013 season because he finished 4th at the 2011 Nationals and backed that up with decent score at 2011 Golden Spin, which he did get assigned to based on 2010 Nationals (he was 6th, had Nebelhorn too but WD). The reason he can do Golden Spin in the 2011/2012 season was because he only got 1 GP (NHK Trophy... host spot? since the other 2 entries was Daisuke and Kozuka). And in the previous season? Tatsuki finished 4th at 2009 Nationals but made his 2010 4CC assignment he got from that result count to increase his SB, resulting in 2 GP events in 2010/2011.

What I'm saying is we'll just keep worrying forever about the unfairness of assignments when the skaters are not able to consistently build their resume based on the opportunities they have. And when you see an example like Tatsuki, who was definitely not getting any favoritism from JSF, he kept making the best out of the opportunities he had within the constraint of the rules.

Maybe it's more difficult for the Japanese skaters because the field is a lot more cutthroat, but I think that's been the case for a while. They have no other choice but do well at every single competition, both local and international, including last minute assignments. Basically they have to be good at every single point in the season:

- local competitions (Regionals, Sectionals) --> to qualify for Nationals
- Nationals --> to get 4CC / Worlds assignment for higher SB + WS points, to get in a higher level of funding groups for next season to get challenger assignments
- host spot selection --> GP, opportunity for higher SB + WS points
- challenger, senior B, GP --> for higher SB + WS points, for the top to qualify for GPF
- GPF --> to be considered for 4CC / Worlds even if they bombed Nationals
around and around it goes, and one bomb in this kind of field when they are middling is fatal, because there are other skaters clawing at every opportunity they lose.

This kind of system definitely benefits the highest guy, since he can sit peacefully on top while the others have to follow the system and the mercy of the feds. But again, to get to the top takes years of being reliable to bring back results.

At least- some skaters that people are worried about in this thread do have WS points so they are eligible for international assignments when they get them. Some other skaters don't have them at all (or have ran out of them) so even when they place higher than others at Nationals, it's still up in the air whether they can be given international assignments, since other feds only see the SB and WS for GP invitations while JSF usually prioritize those with existing WS points to increase their SB (which is why I like that they seem to have a selection event for Challengers last season and not just for NHK host spot). And like... the women got it worse. Remember when Rika Kihira WD from CdP last year only for the replacement assignment to be Sena and not IDK, someone like Yuna Aoki? Yeah.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

Tatsuki had 2 GP events (and GPF) in 2012/2013 season because he finished 4th at the 2011 Nationals and backed that up with decent score at 2011 Golden Spin, which he did get assigned to based on 2010 Nationals (he was 6th, had Nebelhorn too but WD). The reason he can do Golden Spin in the 2011/2012 season was because he only got 1 GP (NHK Trophy... host spot? since the other 2 entries was Daisuke and Kozuka). And in the previous season? Tatsuki finished 4th at 2009 Nationals but made his 2010 4CC assignment he got from that result count to increase his SB, resulting in 2 GP events in 2010/2011.

Tatsuki's 4th place finish at 2011-12 Nats had little to do with his two GP assignments in 2012-13, both of them were not host spots and he was guaranteed at least one based on his WS in 18th place.
2011/12 also probably wasn't a host spot, he had a SB in the top 14 in 2010/11 season.

Of course, if you go far enough back, you'll find instances where he got assignments based on Nationals alone - As a junior, of course, and then after his 4th place finish in 2009-10. However, him being sent to 4CC in 2010 was down to pure luck. It was the Olympic season, and all of the medalists skipped 4CC, so 4th, 5th and 7th were sent instead. A season later or earlier, Tatsuki might not have ended up going to 4CC.
And from that season on, all of Tatsuki's GP assignments were the result of either WS or a Season's best scores in the top 24, so who knows what would have happened if he hadn't gone to 4CC - His career might have looked significantly different.

And of course, the situation isn't better in Women's, nobody is claiming that. And the situation in Dance is even worse, where even the few existing teams don't get sent to international competitions for the most part. It's a general issue that spans all disciplines, and I would love to see some improvement here overall.
Sure, there are probably some financial restrictions, but I'm sure some skaters would be okay (partially) financing their trips as long as they at least get the chance to go to any competitions.

 

[rabidline]

And from that season on, all of Tatsuki's GP assignments were the result of either WS or a Season's best scores in the top 24, so who knows what would have happened if he hadn't gone to 4CC - His career might have looked significantly different.

That's the thing, he did do well at a pre-Olympic Nationals, and did went to 2010 4CC, even though it's out of sheer luck (or did the skaters knew the possibility of at least one Nats medalist will skip 4CC to prepare for Olympics? aiming for a 4th place finish at a Pre-Olympic Nats is very strategic in that case). And he made the most out of it, which started the snowball that led to his breakthrough. It's not about the number of assignment, it's about making the most from what's there.

But yes, I definitely think there's room for improvement. Like JSF being more transparent about not just the criteria to choose skaters for Worlds and 4CC (they don't always follow it to the letter but at least the criteria is out there) but also... the criteria to choose skaters for Challenger assignments or other competition with WS points. Knowledge is power and I think Japanese skaters can benefit to know when they should be preparing to peak based on clear cut criterias. Or else we just have the same go-around every season.

 

[yesterday]

I don't know. Sure, given that the Japanese TV stations are not happy with the state of ratings at the minute, the JSF could be thinking that maybe competitions with all their own skaters, including the top ones, might be more popular than those where most of the competitors are foreign. On the other hand it's only going to hurt the higher-ranked skaters in the long run. On the other other hand, JSF don't really seem to care much about the skaters' individually or their careers, and sponsors being not happy matters.

And on the other other other hand... what's the chances it will even work?

love your post!

 

[KiraraChin]

Can I just say I'm kinda worried about Kazuki not doing Kinki It's such an established part of his 'calendar' and he's the type of skater who benefits from having more competitions in the early season (plus he loves small competitions, where he can just hang out with his friends). I have a feeling he might decide to do Kinki even if he doesn't have to.

As for Japan Open, I think Shoma and Koshiro will be chosen, as the top 1-2 at Nats.

I also hope everyone gets a challenger

 

[surimi]

And of course, the situation isn't better in Women's, nobody is claiming that. And the situation in Dance is even worse, where even the few existing teams don't get sent to international competitions for the most part. It's a general issue that spans all disciplines, and I would love to see some improvement here overall.
Sure, there are probably some financial restrictions, but I'm sure some skaters would be okay (partially) financing their trips as long as they at least get the chance to go to any competitions.

This. Thank you.

Well, I see nothing wrong with discussing and ranting (that's what forums are for, after all) when CS are announced, and JSF does what they did last year.

I'll stick to men. Let's take a peek at one comparison with last season.
Year 2018. Out of the 2017 Nationals best 9 men, 7 go to 2018 CS. Plus Yuzuru who didn't participate in Nats. The two who were not assigned, Mura and Murakami, were both retired by September IIRC. Year 2019. Slightly worse, but out of the 2018 Nationals top 9, 5 got assigned to 2019 CS, plus Mitsuki and Yuzuru who weren't at Nationals. I'm guessing they skipped Yuma who was in juniors, not sure about Yuto, Tatsuya, and also Daisuke (who possibly declined).

Those are the years I miss. 8 assigned top men. 7 assigned top men. Last year's 2? Pitiful.

It prompts the question what other big federations are doing differently, for their top skaters to be able to do CS and GP while also qualifying for their Nats while not necessarily being seeded. Those federations don’t give their best skaters as much money as JSF, true, but they give them more opportunities. No idea why doing both hasn’t been a possibility recently for a federation as powerful as JSF. I can only hope it was because of covid.

It’s not like JSF cannot make exceptions if they want to. Rika Hongo doesn't belong here, but she did neither regionals nor sectionals in 2017; she did a Challenger and two GP instead. She wasn’t seeded. When there's a will, there's a way.

The implication that this rough treatment with few international competitions is a method to make skaters resilient and consistent? If so, it's not working. All top JPN men but Shoma and Yuma, maybe now Kao, and Kazuki in the second half of the season, are inconsistent. It’s also possible to get assigned to CS and B events despite having mostly lackluster international events, so it’s not about only consistent skaters being rewarded.

And why am I ranting against JPN skaters not getting CS of all competitions? Because the way I see it, they're not just an opportunity to gain WS points (through which skaters can get into the better group on GP, and even just a few dozen points in WS may make a difference in not/getting granted a GP event next season, etc). It’s also one more chance for a high SB which may also grant 1 GP IIRC. If a skater gets injured or ill during the GP series, tough luck for them if they’re Japanese and don’t get to 4CC and WC. But also, the early Challengers are a chance to get international judge feedback before the really important events start. I imagine it’s hard to make layout adjustments in the middle of GPS if you discover judges don’t care for your current one. Again, if you’re a JPN skater, it’s likely that there won‘t be another meaningful international opportunity after GP.

So, to me, CS assignments matter a great deal. I know full well JSF doesn’t give a dar*n about one fan ranting somewhere, but I don’t care about that. Perhaps more will speak up if the non-assignments keep happening.

 

[yesterday]

Maybe they will "come back" to smaller tournaments more now that JSF has seen that it is "safe" again. Iirc, they sent some more skaters out quite late last season, ofc some of it was before Worlds but there was also the one in Italy (too tired to recall the name right now) where they sent 2 skaters in every singles category (Sen, Jun). That could have been a starter

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

Thread for 2023-24 season
https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/threads/2023-24-japanese-mens-figure-skating.95688/