2024-25 Russian Women's Figure Skating
- Thread starter AlexBreeze
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I hope so.
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- Feb 19, 2021
If she can repeat this at nats, there's really no stopping her.
It will only take one of the biggest meltdowns to ever stop her. Hopefully she gets that one quota to the Olympics they are teasing with and puts on a dominant display for Olympic gold next season.
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the 4F is also looking good, I doubt we will see it during nats but hopefully she can stabilize it by GPF or the team event.
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I've seen her land it a couple times I think she goes for it. If she falls on it she wins with a gap anyways, even if everyone else is perfect. Mura with 3 3As wouldnt be enough I think since Adeliia also has a 3A in the FS now. Akateva would need a 3A thats the only way someone would put fire under her feet. However there are speculations Mura is restoring a 4S in which case it would be smart for Petrosian to stick with the toeloops for a confirmed victory.
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Wait until after RGP Final and I'll build on my earlier analysis of season averages. I'll drop a bomb post. Remember Adeliia is already 2nd in history for a 2-season average. 3rd for 1-season average by 1 point (244 vs Shcherbakova's 245). Valieva's 1-season average of 260 is unbeatable for now (thats including DQ's scores). Valieva's first place 2-season average is 253 (also including DQ'd scores). Adeliia will definitely have the #1 3-season average and senior career average. She will officially be the most consistent female quadster of all time. She might even beat Valieva's DQ'd 253 2-season average. Valieva's best non-DQ'd season is 245 tied with Shcherbakova. Petrosian almost surely beats this. Valieva's best non-DQ'd 2-season average is 244 (1 above Petrosian). Petrosian also beats this. If you dont consider Valieva's DQ'd scores valid then Petrosian is looking to take an undisputed greatest title by all performance metrics. I do however personally consider Valieva's DQ'd scores valid. Remember even in that case Petrosian is still right on her tail and might take a couple spots from her in the statistics. The only thing really stopping her is that 260 1-season average which is a sincerely mindboggling number. I always put most of my points for greatness in peak so Valieva has a strong hold for now. If Petrosian skates 2 more season like this though the entire debate could finished no matter how you look at it. A stable 4F is really the difference. Everyone said her 3A is done last season and now she has the most stable 3A of all ladies. If she likewise proves herself next season with the 4F a ~260 average is not impossible especially considering her PCS. Its an incredible time to watch skating, yet also nervewrecking. In any case after this season Petrosian should be the only skater playing on the same field as Valieva, which in itself is something I used to deem utterly impossible and beyond imagination. To go further then and consider even the hypothetical possibility of an overtaking is hard to comprehend. Genius knows no boundaries. Its stunning. Maxwell unto Newton, Mozart unto Bach, Van Gogh unto DaVinci, Tesla unto Faraday, Rachmaninoff unto Liszt, Petrosian unto Valieva... Really with maximum objectivity and no pretence I present this.
On another note in the nearer lens we will drop an analysis on Nats statistics and see how these girls compare to history. Actually my prediction is that the general level of skating will be shown to have increased in Russia despite popular opinion. In fact there might be a huge embarrassment coming for some vocal pessimistic nostalgics.
I agree with much of this, but Valieva's 2022/23 will never be surpassed. Plus Valieva's scores would have been even higher in 2022/23 with the sequence rule.
If you look at the Russian championships that season, she had a BV of 86 with a 4T+1Eu+3S in the second half. At the Rostelecom Cup the 3S was a 2S, at the European championships she messed up the Euler she only got value for the 4T and it was reduced.
Whereas now with the sequence rule, she could have replaced the difficult and relatively inconsistent 4T+1Eu+3S with a single 4T, swap the 3F+3T with 3F+2A+2A, then jump the 3Lz in combination with the 3T instead of on its own bringing the BV up to 88. To me this is much, much easier than attempting the 4+3 euler combo plus increases the BV by 2 points.
She would have had even higher scores, even more stability, even more consistency in 2022/23.
Petrosian just has the one 3+3 combo at the moment in her program yet the BV is up to 82. Valieva had a 4+3 and 4+Eu+3 as well as a 3+3 in her program for a BV a mere 4 points more.
Plus this supposed "decline" in Russian women's skating is due no world championships or Olympics to aim for so motivation is at maybe 95% rather than 100%. This is natural. Both seniors and juniors would be showing an even higher level. Also the domestic age rule has increased from 14-16 so the 14 and 15 year olds with quads are in juniors not seniors. Some people like to play dumb though and come up with conspiracy theories for any decline.
With no international competition, I think they could have an extra tournament such as a 14+ senior event while keeping the 16+ Russian championships. It would be quite interesting (the women's event anyway).
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- Aug 8, 2023
I dont disagree. I also just dont like considering hypotheticals. I am still entirely sympathetic to the position that Valieva is entirely unbeatable forever, as I mentioned, considering a one season peak, which yes I also mentioned is my most important metric. I do think your position is entirely logical. Entertaining hypotheticals though she had 3 ultra-c, Petrosian has the same but a 4F over a 4S. If I invoke Petrosian jumping two flips that would also be delving into the realm of pure hypothetical. If we talk hypotheticals then its still a question. They really are close in theory. Claiming hypotheticals for Valieva and concluding an absolute "never" is a little myopic. If Petrosian did manage to jump 2 4Fs in reality and push 270 I would probably disregard Valieva's hypotheticals and draw the line especially considering Petrosian borders on unparalleled consistency, by a massive margin. Maybe you see why I dont like going into this territory of hypotheticals. The possible cases are innumerable and I feel embarrassed if I show exceeding bias in such considerations. I try to avoid the realm altogether. I did rewatch Valieva's programs recently and feel a refreshing amazement. I ashamedly confess sort of forgetting how good she is. To this day, given all evidence, she is unparalleled; there have been zero performances which reached her holistic level as a figure skater. Especially her Bolero. We have a few skaters who can present genius SPs, but the FS is a monster almost nobody can really figure out, and she conquered it - perfected it.
At this stage I am still comfortable saying if Petrosian ends this season well she will be on the same field as Valieva, and the only one.
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- Jan 12, 2018
Meh, I think it's way way lower than that. Some skaters even gave up because of that, like Tuktamysheva. Even Trusova would be more motivated to compete for sure..
She is coached by Viktoria Butsaeva
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