2025-26 Japanese Women's Figure Skating

[Anna K.]

Apparently, nobody cares right now but... How the potential top 9 for the next year's GP series looks like?

 

[RafaelAstro]

This is really unrelated to Japanese skating, but Alysa Liu is a good performer. She projects emotion throughout her programs. Isabeau Levito is wonderful but does she get lost in the character of her programs to the same extent? Also why is Liu being "pushed" as opposed to some fans being biased? She clearly improved dramatically over the space of a season.

Disagreed, Wakaba improved as well and didn't have the same treatment even with better ice coverage, skating skills, jumps, speed, and more difficult step sequences and Wakaba has a longer trayectory and experience than Liu, I'm talking about last season

 

[Joekaz]

Perhaps it would be healthier for her not to compete.

Her foot has been a chronic issue most of her career and her coach talked her into coming back 2 years ago. She probably would have retired after last season's success, if this wasn't an Olympic year. No way she comes back next season.

 

[Joekaz]

Yep, now she has to medal at Nationals. She was actually unlikely to be in the pool even if she qualified for GPF. Had she did well in Finland (she could’ve done well without qualifying for Finals) I would have said if she makes the podium she’ll be chosen over Nakai regardless how Nakai did at Nationals. But now I say Nakai would have to do poorly.


I hope she does well at Nationals too. I hate that her world standing is so low and it’s because Nationals has always been her worst competition so her season essentially ends in December with no Challengers the next season. (She was 8th last year so she got Lombardia by the skin of her teeth.)

I’ll try to keep my expectations low. Finland wasn’t even the first time she did something like that. I remember this one time where she just about gave away her GPF spot. She ended up with a silver medal though, but her performance was actually her worst on the GP at the time…which says a lot about the field. She just doesn’t skate well under pressure and she’s going to have to work on that.

Because of her WS and not doing well at Nationals, she has to do well on the GP, or she risks not getting GP assignments. She can’t afford performances like the one in Finland.

Ami needs to show consistency with her 3As to really solidify her spot. So far it's only one event that has made her season. If she fails in her 3A at GPF and at Nationals, her stock will go way down. The memory of Mana at the last Olympics is still fresh. But, regardless, Rion will have to be lights out at Nationals to podium and even be considered. Rinka and her 3As still have a shot as well. I do think the Fed prefers Ami, though. Which, this being figure skating,usually will affect the scoring. Lol

 

[RafaelAstro]

Apparently, nobody cares right now but... How the potential top 9 for the next year's GP series looks like?

Idk, but with Kaori, Wakaba, Yuna, and Mai retiring, and Mao moving to seniors, we may expect this:

Mao Shimada – 2 assignments
Ami Nakai – 2 assignments
Mone Chiba – 2 assignments
Hana Yoshida – 2 assignments
Rion Sumiyoshi – 2 assignments
Rinka Watanabe – 2 assignments
Rino Matsuike – 2 assignments

Saki Miyake – 1/2 assignments?
Mako Yamashita – 1/2 assignments?
Mana Kawabe – 1 assignment?
Yo Takagi – 1 assignment?
Haruna Murakami – 1 assignment?

It doesn’t seem like we’re going to see the 18 maximum spots filled like in the last seasons, but idk.

 

[Joekaz]

Disagreed, Wakaba improved as well and didn't have the same treatment even with better ice coverage, skating skills, jumps, speed, and more difficult step sequences and Wakaba has a longer trayectory and experience than Liu, I'm talking about last season

In last year's WC, after the SP, Wakaba and Alysa were the only completely clean skaters. Yet, Liu was in first place, 2.5 points ahead of Wakaba, who was in 4th, behind 2 girls with errors. That told everyone right there that something was wrong with the scoring.

 

[Anna K.]

It doesn’t seem like we’re going to see the 18 maximum spots filled like in the last seasons

Why?

 

[RafaelAstro]

Ami needs to show consistency with her 3As to really solidify her spot. So far it's only one event that has made her season. If she fails in her her 3A at GPF and at Nationals, her stock will go way down. The memory of Mana at the last Olympics is still fresh. But, regardless, Rion will have to be lights out at Nationals to podium and even be considered. Rinka and her 3As still have a shot as well. I do think the Fed prefers Ami, though. Which, this being figure skating,usually will affect the scoring. Lol

Ami has better presentation and fewer rotation issues than Rinka. Other than the triple axels, her other jumps are consistent and that may help her. However, Rinka has stronger nerves, higher technical potential, and tends to improve over time, so it will be tight to be completely honest.

 

[RafaelAstro]

Why?

Because if I'm not mistaken, spots are given based on last year’s Worlds placements, world ranking, and season’s best. Saki Miyake and Mako Yamashita aren’t that high because Japan hasn’t sent them to compete this past seasons, except for minor events and the Kinoshita Challenger Cup. I mean, I think Saki can get 2 assignments if she gets the NHK spot, while for Mako it’s more likely she’ll only get one. It will also depend on the Nationals placements. It's still very early
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[RafaelAstro]

In last year's WC, after the SP, Wakaba and Alysa were the only completely clean skaters. Yet, Liu was in first place, 2.5 points ahead of Wakaba, who was in 4th, behind 2 girls with errors. That told everyone right there that something was wrong with the scoring.

Don't forget the uncalled underrotation on Alysa's toe loop in the short program, even the commentators pointed it out. It has been the same case this season.

 

[RafaelAstro]

I saw Petrosian today about an hour ago in Omsk. She did her free program with 4To3-3Toe and single 4Toe. So if she can repeat this in Milano( Ithink she can) she will win the competition.

Wasn't her two quads underrotated? At least in international competition they will be deducted

 

[Joekaz]

Wasn't her two quads underrotated? At least in international competition they will be deducted

It will be hard for her. She doesn't have alot of time to practice and build up her stamina as well. She fell on a triple and her score was 143, including two quads. That score probably won't even get you on the podium. Quads take alot of energy and she will need stamina to stay clean on the other jumps. Plus, the q and the +5-5 GOE scoring can be used to somewhat nullify ultra c elements,as we have seen. I doubt the judges will feel in a lenient mood with a Russian,either. Between her and the Americans, Japan should feel pretty confident with their current Olympic frontrunners.

 

[throw_triple_flip]

Disagreed, Wakaba improved as well and didn't have the same treatment even with better ice coverage, skating skills, jumps, speed, and more difficult step sequences and Wakaba has a longer trayectory and experience than Liu, I'm talking about last season

I was responding to your comment about Liu and Levito, not Higuchi.
Though I don't buy this whole "Wakaba is so oppressed" narrative that seems to have become lore. She went to the Olympics, won National medals, won Grand Prix. But she is inconsistent. Which is why her scores have been up and down. If she genuinely isn't getting the same benefit of the doubt as others, perhaps that's why.

Though if you insist on comparing them, Liu performs throughout her programs while Higuchi's step sequences are noticeably way more expressive than the rest of her programs. Higuchi has excellent skating skills, but doesn't she tend to use more crossovers/be a bit more two footed when generating speed compared to others (particularly her domestic rivals)?

 

[throw_triple_flip]

In last year's WC, after the SP, Wakaba and Alysa were the only completely clean skaters. Yet, Liu was in first place, 2.5 points ahead of Wakaba, who was in 4th, behind 2 girls with errors. That told everyone right there that something was wrong with the scoring.

Or maybe you're just missing something?

 

[brblja]

Because if I'm not mistaken, spots are given based on last year’s Worlds placements, world ranking, and season’s best. Saki Miyake and Mako Yamashita aren’t that high because Japan hasn’t sent them to compete this past seasons, except for minor events and the Kinoshita Challenger Cup. I mean, I think Saki can get 2 assignments if she gets the NHK spot, while for Mako it’s more likely she’ll only get one. It will also depend on the Nationals placements. It's still very early
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

In a normal year, yes, but in the year right after all the post-Olympics retirements? Saki will almost certainly get 2. There will be fewer guaranteed spots because the retirees won’t use theirs, so fill-ins via season’s best will go much deeper than this year.

Although I do think that Japan might have a problem getting the max anyway - but that’s because they just won’t have enough people with an official season’s best. I’m really side-eyeing JSF’s decision to not send people to Tallin and Zagreb CSs to get ahead on that, since after, the only way to get a seasons best is Worlds/Olympics/4CC.

And re: Mana being suggested above - she could only get a host spot, she had no international assignments since 2023. Although Ikura could have a good chance at 1 spot or a high substitute placement if she continued to do both singles and dance, she’s right next to Yo on the SB list.

 

[RafaelAstro]

I was responding to your comment about Liu and Levito, not Higuchi.
Though I don't buy this whole "she is oppressed narrative" that seems to have become lore. She went to the Olympics, won National medals, won Grand Prix. But she is inconsistent. Which is why her scores have been up and down.

As for performance, Liu performs throughout her programs. Higuchi often leaves it til after the jumps are done (her step sequences are noticeably way more expressive). Higuchi has excellent skating skills, but doesn't she tend to use more crossovers/be a bit more two footed when generating speed compared to others (particularly her domestic rivals)?

I used Wakaba as an example of how Alysa is favored by her federation, unlike Wakaba. Alysa’s PCS are not deserved IMO, especially compared with how her compatriots are scored. Consistency shouldn’t be taken into account for PCS, and even so, Wakaba was consistent enough last season for a PCS increase, yet it didn’t happen. Alysa usually lands her jumps, but they often lack rotation and this is ignored many times. The only thing Alysa may be better than Wakaba at is interpretation, but that’s just one part of PCS.

I’ll leave this topic behind already because I’m tired, and it’s just a personal opinion that many people share anyway.

 

[Joekaz]

I used Wakaba as an example of how Alysa is favored by her federation, unlike Wakaba. Alysa’s PCS are not deserved IMO, especially compared with how her compatriots are scored. Consistency shouldn’t be taken into account for PCS, and even so, Wakaba was consistent enough last season for a PCS increase, yet it didn’t happen. Alysa usually lands her jumps, but they often lack rotation and this is ignored many times. The only thing Alysa may be better than Wakaba at is interpretation, but that’s just one part of PCS.

I’ll leave this topic behind already because I’m tired, and it’s just a personal opinion that many people share anyway.

I think Wakaba gets unfairly criticized for being inconsistent. Her inconsistency is usually from season to season, not during a season. It usually stems from injury issues. When she is healthy and skating well, it usually continues throughout the season. Look at last season. She got a gold and silver during GP season and went to GPF. Then she goes to WC and her scores don't improve at all. Yet Liu doesn't even medal and is completely mediocre all season, but her scores go through the roof at WC? Wakaba is so strong all around that her detractors always try to exagerate anything that she doesn't do exceptionally well and ignore all her fantastic points.

 

[RafaelAstro]

I think Wakaba gets unfairly criticized for being inconsistent. Her inconsistency is usually from season to season, not during a season. It usually stems from injury issues. When she is healthy and skating well, it usually continues throughout the season. Look at last season. She got a gold and silver during GP season and went to GPF. Then she goes to WC and her scores don't improve at all. Yet Liu doesn't even medal and is completely mediocre all season, but her scores go through the roof at WC? Wakaba is so strong all around that her detractors always try to exagerate anything that she doesn't do exceptionally well and ignore all her fantastic points.

Exactly

 

[YuBluByMe]

Ami needs to show consistency with her 3As to really solidify her spot. So far it's only one event that has made her season. If she fails in her her 3A at GPF and at Nationals, her stock will go way down. The memory of Mana at the last Olympics is still fresh. But, regardless, Rion will have to be lights out at Nationals to podium and even be considered. Rinka and her 3As still have a shot as well. I do think the Fed prefers Ami, though. Which, this being figure skating,usually will affect the scoring. Lol

Agree with most of this except I don’t think Watanabe has a big a shot for the Olympics as it appears. Watanabe will have to finish among top 2 Japanese at GPF. I think it’s going to take more than just her beating Nakai there or even at Nationals (unless she podiums).

Watanabe’s in the selection pool because of season ranking and after GPF it’ll be world ranking. JFed’s only going to look that far down if they don’t choose someone among the top criteria first. In other words, Nakai would have to give them reason NOT to pick her.

Nakai already missed both her 3As, but (as I predicted) nailed her other jumps and scored 200+ Watanabe won’t be able to do that. She misses her 3As and suddenly she’s struggling to break 190. The one advantage she has is that her 3As are more consistent, but Nakai’s better than her in every other way and neither of them struggle with competition nerves.

BREAK

RE 2026-27 Grand Prix Quotas: It’s top 12 at Worlds, top 24 SB, and top 24 World ranking. National results have nothing to do with it. Skaters like Kawabe with no international results will not be on the GP unless it’s as a host spot. Takagi’s SB is too low. It’s looking like:

Chiba, Nakai, Sumiyoshi, Watanabe, Miyake, Matsuike, Yoshida, and Shimada.

Yamashita really blew it at the Kinoshita Challenger as that was a golden opportunity to get a decent SB to try to make the GP next year. There’s going to be a reset next season, but it won’t be as dramatic as it was in the beginning of the quad with the Russian ban. There will be retirements, but there’s also going to be skaters moving up from juniors. She may be able to squeeze in due to that.

 

[denise3lz]

GP spots is able to roughly inferred from SB list.
Within 24th surely have 2
25th to about 40+ have 1 and host GP/host pick/being in alternative list

So I think it will be like

Ami, Mone, Rion, Rinka, Mao and Saki: 2
Rino: likely 2
Haruna: 1 + host pick? if she choose to be senior
Mako: might be 1 if she continue
Yuna: might be 1 if she continue

Kaoruko, Hana, Yo and Ikura: 0
They have slight chance if selected to championships (Jr World/4CC) after Nationals.