4CCs Predictions | Page 5 | Golden Skate

4CCs Predictions

prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Comparing Osmond's lutz edge take-off to Kim's flip take-off is absurd. :slink: Osmond has a flutz and is trying to fix it. Yu-Na does not have an issue with her flip take-off.
ROFL! YuNa has only ever had ONE "e" call on her 3Flip in Seniors, in 2008, and it didn't have to do with faulty technique; skaters who have the proper edge for the Lutz and Flip sometimes take off on the wrong edge if they aren't focused. It's time to move on, people - she has a true Flip and did it without "e" in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012...

Meanwhile Kaetlyn has...Flutzed at Skate Canada, Flutzed at Canadian Nats, Flutzed at...one gets the idea that she has a Flutz. NOT putting her down, I really like her, but really annoying that YuNa is called a "Lipper" on these forums from time-to-time in order for fans of other skaters to make excuses for their own.
 

Ilvskating

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 30, 2010
ladies: Mao, katlyn Osmond, Zijun Li
Men: HAnyu, Dai, Kevin
pairs: D/R, T-M/M, P/Z
Dance: W/D, V/M, Shibs
 

shine

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
ROFL! YuNa has only ever had ONE "e" call on her 3Flip in Seniors, in 2008, and it didn't have to do with faulty technique; skaters who have the proper edge for the Lutz and Flip sometimes take off on the wrong edge if they aren't focused. It's time to move on, people - she has a true Flip and did it without "e" in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012...

Meanwhile Kaetlyn has...Flutzed at Skate Canada, Flutzed at Canadian Nats, Flutzed at...one gets the idea that she has a Flutz. NOT putting her down, I really like her, but really annoying that YuNa is called a "Lipper" on these forums from time-to-time in order for fans of other skaters to make excuses for their own.
Oh okay. I'm sorry for misidentifying but I don't closely keep track of Kim's competition protocols (I rarely read protocols anyway). From my naked eyes her flips sometimes do tend to look like lips but it's not too obvious. I have only seen Osmond do 3 lutzes, and from the angles that I have seen they don't look too much like flutzes (even if she does, she switches at the very last instance and it has been hard to spot with the angles I've been given). It's one of those "somewhere in the middle" cases. There's no need for me to make excuses for my favorites. I am healthy and happy enough with my own life that I don't need to do that. I will watch her lutz more closely next time and If I indeed think she flutzes then I will say she flutzes. Because, well, so what if she flutzes? Doesn't affect me one way or the other. Unlike fans of some certain other skaters.
 
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Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
Yu-Na's takeoff edge on her flip is perfect. And she has nothing to do with this year's 4CC. :)
 

prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Oh okay. I'm sorry for misidentifying but I don't closely keep track of Kim's competition protocols (I rarely read protocols anyway). From my naked eyes her flips sometimes do tend to look like lips but it's not too obvious. I have only seen Osmond do 3 lutzes, and from the angles that I have seen they don't look too much like flutzes (even if she does, she switches at the very last instance and it has been hard to spot with the angles I've been given). It's one of those "somewhere in the middle" cases. There's no need for me to make excuses for my favorites. I am healthy and happy enough with my own life that I don't need to do that. I will watch her lutz more closely next time and If I indeed think she flutzes then I will say she flutzes. Because, well, so what if she flutzes? Doesn't affect me one way or the other. Unlike fans of some certain other skaters.
It's odd that to your naked eyes YuNa's Flips have looked like Lips but tech panels comprised of 3 people spanning the last 4 years of competitions with access to slo-mo haven't called a Lip on her...I guess you have x-ray vision of some sort? :biggrin:

Anyway I didn't mean to sound as if I am singling you out for making that passing comment - it's just that lately I've also seen a Gracie fan call YuNa a "Lipper" and some Mao fans saying she's developed some kind of "hammertoe", just comments that make me go :confused:

And I agree with you, a Flutz isn't a dealbreaker, and the IJS agrees that it shouldn't be. Kaetlyn has plenty of time to work on fixing it, if she chooses, and she has a lot of other strengths that make her a fabulous skater with tons of potential.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
I see a lot think the Shibs will rebound and beat Chock and Bates ever interesting. WE'll see they must be hungry.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Does anyone know the status of Pang and Tong - is he trying to save himself to skate at world's and then go for surgery. Sounds crazy. It is too bad Chan was too scared to skate here or is there another reason. I think he knows he is in trouble. He should have worked on another quad and now it is too late. He is now surpassed by takahashhi and Hanyu and Fernadez. He won't even be ont he podium.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Does anyone know the status of Pang and Tong - is he trying to save himself to skate at world's and then go for surgery. Sounds crazy. It is too bad Chan was too scared to skate here or is there another reason. I think he knows he is in trouble. He should have worked on another quad and now it is too late. He is now surpassed by takahashhi and Hanyu and Fernadez. He won't even be ont he podium.

He might not make the podium, but he's never gone to a 4CC that was out of North America. He didn't go in 2011 after his epically amazing Nationals FS (where he signalled that he definitely wasn't in trouble, nor scared). or in 2008 (after he won his first title) (nor 2010, but no one from Canada was allowed to go if they were going to the Olympics).
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
Does anyone know the status of Pang and Tong - is he trying to save himself to skate at world's and then go for surgery. Sounds crazy. It is too bad Chan was too scared to skate here or is there another reason. I think he knows he is in trouble. He should have worked on another quad and now it is too late. He is now surpassed by takahashhi and Hanyu and Fernadez. He won't even be ont he podium.

It's sad to see that Chan is not on the place he was last season-he was at top of the world, but he obviously isn't right now. None of the world champions last year(Chan, Kostner, S/S, and V/M) seems to be on top of the world right now like they were at last year's Worlds. Well, maybe Kostner is doing well since she won gold medal at European Championships, but if Adelina didn't make a mistake at Euros with her FS, she would've won silver.

It would be interesting to see if Mao succeeds with her 3A(no < or << or any other mistakes). If she does a nice 3A, she'll be a gold medal contender at this year's Worlds:)
 
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SkateNater

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
Oh okay. I'm sorry for misidentifying but I don't closely keep track of Kim's competition protocols (I rarely read protocols anyway). From my naked eyes her flips sometimes do tend to look like lips but it's not too obvious. I have only seen Osmond do 3 lutzes, and from the angles that I have seen they don't look too much like flutzes (even if she does, she switches at the very last instance and it has been hard to spot with the angles I've been given). It's one of those "somewhere in the middle" cases. There's no need for me to make excuses for my favorites. I am healthy and happy enough with my own life that I don't need to do that. I will watch her lutz more closely next time and If I indeed think she flutzes then I will say she flutzes. Because, well, so what if she flutzes? Doesn't affect me one way or the other. Unlike fans of some certain other skaters.

Flips sometimes have the impression of being on an outside edge because of the bend in the ankle on the take-off that some skaters tend to have. That has nothing to do with the edge, that's them applying some edge pressure and it doesn't necessarily mean their edge rolled over. Video analysis supports this. Most skaters do not do their flip jumps off really deep inside edges, as it can cause the take-off to be unstable (nevermind the risk of losing the edge on the take-off). That's also one of the reasons why a lot of skaters moved to short lutz take-off (i.e. Slutskaya, who had no Flutz issues, moved to a shorter lutz take-off to improve her take-off stability and consistency, and suddenly it went form being her most inconsistent jump to one of her most consistent).

As for the hammer toe. Well, some could call it that, on her flip and lutz. It's slightly there, but not excessive like a Lipinski Lutz or Murakami's toe jumps. It's more reminiscent of Ito's toe jumps.

I do think Yuna Kim's toe loop technique when it's the back jump in her combinations is sort of bad, though. She tends to jump off of two feet and rotate instead of bringing the skating leg back on the jump. Actually, the technique she uses is actually quite astonishing because she makes the jump way harder than it needs to be. Instead of doing 2.5'ish rotations which is normal for a Triple Toe Loop, she does a full 3. But it can cost her URs in places where a proper take-off would have easily gotten the jump around.

I've seen her solo 3Toe and it looked much better. Her Salchow landings scare me a little...

A Flutz should be a major fault, even a slight one. Because a Lutz is significantly more difficult than a flip. That's why the BV of a 3 Loop compared to a 3 Flip is 5.1 vs. 5.2 and then it jumps up to 6.0 for a 3 Lutz. To say a flutz isn't a big deal is to say that it's of comparable difficulty to a Loop or Flip, and therefore should be overlooked at a fairly minor error - which it isn't. Skaters learn Half and Single Lutzes in Learn to Skate and by the time they're elite they should have mastery over basic edges and take-off mechanics. Edge calls on jump take-offs need to be penalized more, and a bonus should be given to skaters who can display all 5 triples in one program. 3/3 Combinations should get a 10% bonus to the base value of the jumps. The distribution bonus for jumps in the last half of the program should be halved as it allows skaters with easier programs or virtually extinct components to game the system by simply backloading their programs (in Ladies this means we often get to see 2 Salchows back there).

Skaters who have edge issues on a jump will usually not have more than one in a program. Gracie Gold has only one Flip in her FS, and Ashley Wagner/Sotnikova only one Lutz, for example.
 
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chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
I don't know why Gracie fans would call Yu-Na a lipper. Because GRACIE is a lipper!
 
Joined
Mar 11, 2011
AFAIK, shine is not a Gracie fan. A hard-core Carolina fan? YES. As for shine's remark about Yuna's flip, just :rolleye:
 
Joined
Mar 11, 2011
Flips sometimes have the impression of being on an outside edge because of the bend in the ankle on the take-off that some skaters tend to have. That has nothing to do with the edge, that's them applying some edge pressure and it doesn't necessarily mean their edge rolled over. Video analysis supports this. Most skaters do not do their flip jumps off really deep inside edges, as it can cause the take-off to be unstable (nevermind the risk of losing the edge on the take-off). That's also one of the reasons why a lot of skaters moved to short lutz take-off (i.e. Slutskaya, who had no Flutz issues, moved to a shorter lutz take-off to improve her take-off stability and consistency, and suddenly it went form being her most inconsistent jump to one of her most consistent).

As for the hammer toe. Well, some could call it that, on her flip and lutz. It's slightly there, but not excessive like a Lipinski Lutz or Murakami's toe jumps. It's more reminiscent of Ito's toe jumps.

I do think Yuna Kim's toe loop technique when it's the back jump in her combinations is sort of bad, though. She tends to jump off of two feet and rotate instead of bringing the skating leg back on the jump. Actually, the technique she uses is actually quite astonishing because she makes the jump way harder than it needs to be. Instead of doing 2.5'ish rotations which is normal for a Triple Toe Loop, she does a full 3. But it can cost her URs in places where a proper take-off would have easily gotten the jump around.

I've seen her solo 3Toe and it looked much better. Her Salchow landings scare me a little...

This is a very interesting analysis! ITA about Yuna's toe jumps bring back the memories of Ito's. The mere fact that Yuna rarely, almost never, gets URs on her 3-3s is just remarkable.
 
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prettykeys

Medalist
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
I don't know why Gracie fans would call Yu-Na a lipper. Because GRACIE is a lipper!

YuNa is called a "Lipper" on these forums from time-to-time in order for fans of other skaters to make excuses for their own.
That's why, chuck. :) (I'm NOT referring to shine here at all.)

SkateNater - I agree that from a technique point of view, a Flutz IS a big deal and should be penalized severely. Not just because of its base value, but the reason behind the base value - the supposed counter-rotational nature of the jump. When a skater Flutzes the takeoff, they are doing away with one of the major distinguishing features of the jump, so it has two impacts on the athletic value of the program: 1) simply not doing 3Lutz properly; 2) not displaying the same variety of skating skill (doing a double-Lutz would fulfill this aspect.)

However, when judging a skater overall, if they are technically outstanding otherwise and are a great performer, whether they have a Flutz is a relatively minor thing, in my opinion.

And yes, YuNa pre-rotates very little on her 3T.
 

noidont

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 27, 2010
My placement of the ladies:
Asada
Osmond
Z. Li
Gao
Murakami
Gold
Suzuki
K. Zhang
Zawadzki

The only thing I feel pretty sure about is that Christina Gao is gonna follow the steps of Mirai Nagasu and Caroline Zhang, placing first of the US ladies at a 4CC and will never go to a Worlds this quad...
Also that Wagner might flop at Worlds.
Strangely I prefer all three of the Europeans medalists to Osmond, but I actually like her better than anyone but Asada here. If only Kanako isn't a permanent UR target.
 

Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
Men:

1. Hanyu
2. Takahashi
3. Mura

Ladies:

1. Asada
2. Gold
3. Osmond

Pairs:

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. M-T/M
3. Lawrence/Swiegers

Ice Dance:

1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Shibutani/Shibutani
 

sk8inluvah

Spectator
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
dunno whether they will or not but i think m-t/m should overtake megan and eric anytime now. i was at canadian nationals and although moore towers and moscovitch had a phenomenal skate, they did not skate flawlessly like megan and eric did. megan and eric have peaked. kirsten and dylans spings weren't very good on time and she two footed the last throw. that would make up for at least 3 - 4 points putting kirstan and dylan ahead. really depends on how they skate
 

Reginald

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 28, 2011
We have often seen some mesmerizing exhibitions at 4CC. For instance, Mirai's "Fireflies" in 2011.

And who can forget Caroline Zhang's 2009 Exhibition "Lullaby for a Stormy Night."

I wonder if we'll see Christian Gao's Gangnam Style. It has the potential to be epic.
 

TontoK

Hot Tonto
Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 28, 2013
Country
United-States
A bit surprising that the state of Chinese Pairs has fallen so low...

Many are predicting a Canadian sweep of the pairs events... and that's probably as good a guess as any.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
A bit surprising that the state of Chinese Pairs has fallen so low...

Many are predicting a Canadian sweep of the pairs events... and that's probably as good a guess as any.

surely an american team or two will make the podium.
 
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