I have faith three spots will be won by the US as usual. But the odds, statistically speaking suggest Polina or Gracie will falter. Worlds will be exciting. I could see one Karen or Mariah earning fourth or even falling outside of the top 15. This world championshps in fact could be the US time to shine. A medal in each event - with a bit of luck in pairs but with really Russias top 3 teams out or injured dealing with a new baby including SK huge question marks. Duhamel and Radford faltering and the Chinese rebuilding or coming back Sk/K could do the quad twist,land their individual events and count on some errors from the Russians it could be Germany, Sui and Han and Sk/K? or osmething like that. of course SKK could end up like last year kind of a huge disappointment.
I think that's sort of unlikely. SK/K are currently in 12th on the SB list. Okay fair enough, they've only had one competition. But their personal best from last season would only have them 8th, behind T/M, S/H, S/M, J/C, D/R, S/K, and S/B. S/B are questions marks since she's been hurt, so move SK/S up to 7th. That's still a fair number of people who have to mess up for them to get near the podium. T/M have had a strong last couple of competitions, D/R had no problem beating them with a not great skate at 4CC, S/H look good, S/M put up big scores at Euros with less tech content than they can do because she was still recovering and they'll probably up it for Worlds, S/K have looked solid so far, J/C cleanish are get good scores. Sure, with a great skate when the other team has a bad one, SK/K can beat a few of those teams, but are they going to beat four on the same day? And it's not like there aren't other teams who can beat SK/K either. There's no guarantee they'll put up a score around their personal best either. I/M and Y/Z (on a not great skate for them) both did at 4CC (not saying that makes them better, since SK/K had just come back, but it doesn't mean it couldn't happen again at Worlds), S/B are capable even if they're question marks.
I just think that even with a great skate, they'd need a fair amount of luck to sneak onto the podium.
I also think fourth is a possibility for Ashley, very unlikely for Karen or Mariah. Evgenia, Anna, Satoko as long as she's close to healthy, Kaetlyn, Carolina, Ashley are all but guaranteed to be ahead of them IMO, then there's Gabrielle, Maria, Mai and even Wakaba if she's healthy. Those girls are all ahead of Mariah on the SB list. She beat Gabby and Mai at SA, so yeah it could happen, but her beating seven of those girls I've named would involve her laying down a better skate than at SA and she's not that consistent. And Karen, well hopefully for her she'll prove me wrong, but I don't have a whole lot of faith in her. I could certainly see Mariah finishing 7-9, which could could 3 spots with a good placement by Ashley, so it's not that I think there's no chance of it happening, but the only US lady I see placing top six is Ashley.
