A fair way to pick GPF finalists?

[drivingmissdaisy]

Honestly.. People keep throwing out fair and unfair.. I don't understand that. I feel you should always skate like it's your last skate. Who knows what will happen tomorrow.. I think people are upset because the "favorites" skated poorly. That is unfortunate, and it may be a tough pill to swallow..I know these events are not their fault at all. I'm sure they learned a tiny lesson here. Anything could happen.

That's a fair point that skaters should always try to skate their best. However, my issue is that a good SP is not entirely representative of a skater's ability to do a strong LP. Moreover, we are counting a segment that is normally 33% as 100% of the outcome.

 

[shyne]

If I´m correct skaters have to cover some of the money themself, like cost of travels for the coach, so even if feds and ISU have some money, what will happened if the skater doesn´t have the money to do the traveling again? Will he lose his placement?

I'm not sure about the cost of travel, but there are many cases of skaters dropping out of an event due to VISA issues.

 

[uhh]

That's a fair point that skaters should always try to skate their best. However, my issue is that a good SP is not entirely representative of a skater's ability to do a strong LP. Moreover, we are counting a segment that is normally 33% as 100% of the outcome.

But it's a concrete 33% that actually happened, and people are wanting to use a hypothetical for the other 2/3s.

 

[el henry]

I posted this in the TEB thread, but in my opinion the results should just not count.

Let's stay away from unfair, since I think that word may be loaded. Counting the SP makes no sense. The SP is not half of a skater's total score. As has been pointed out, in other sports, a partial score is counted only if more than half the game has been played. If figure skating is a sport, it should be held to the standards of sport. To say that "the SP is all we got, we should count it" does not convince me. If we play the first quarter of a football game and a snowstorm stops it, and it can't be made up, should we say, oh well, the first quarter is all we have, let's use it?

Speaking of which, time for me to go watch the Iggles find new ways to give away the first quarter.....

 

[Lester]

Regarding the OP it is pretty amusing for me how when there is something that doesn't seem to work, people wrack their brains and come up with the most convoluted solutions to ideally preserve fairness. I don't mean this as a criticism, it's just a weird observation that I've made over the years.
But convoluted solutions are a logistic nightmare, complex to implement and difficult to understand and I am not sure that makes them the ultimate better solution. In the case of TEB, certainly whatever mathematical exercises are proposed they are still going to be as unfair to someone as just taking the SP scores but also an incredible hassle.

 

[shyne]

I saw a video of an interview with Gailhaguet (can't provide a link, sorry) where he talked about how they would propose to use the SP results for the final placement, so that the skaters wouldn't suffer under the cancellation of the event. So, to me, that actually already sounded like giving them ANY points at all for TEB was considered a gift to the skaters. The more I think about it, the more I believe that they will also not add any spots to the GPF. The easiest solution for them is to say well, under our current rules you have to complete 2 programs during a competition, and since you have only completed one program, we would actually have the right to call the whole event null and void. Not fair? Sucks to be them, I guess. Therefore I can see how they would just say We give you GP points based on what you did in the SP. We could also give you nothing at all. Take it or leave it.
Is it fair? No. Is it likely to happen? I think it is. If there really is no set contingency plan for cases where the FS can't take place, this would be the easiest solution for them and the one that doesn't cost them anything extra.

This entire time I felt all ISU wants is the simplest, easiest solution possible. They insisted on continuing TEB despite the safety concerns and the emotional turmoil of the skaters because it avoids the complications we are currently in. Once TEB is cancelled by French officals, the first thing came to their mind is to use the SP standing to decide the final results. This avoids the mess with rescheduling. ISU really don't care who's in GPF. Using SP results to determine the results of TEB, Russia's Liza, Julia, TM, China's PZ, Japan's Kanako are certain to be out of the final. A GPF without dominating Russian and Japanese ladies and Russian and Chinese pairs, this diversity is probably what ISU wanted to see in years! I really don't think they are going to add more spots to GPF to change that.

 

[HanDomi]

I posted this in the TEB thread, but in my opinion the results should just not count.

So let's leave skaters with 0 points. I guess it will be more fair ?

:sarcasm:

 

[surimi]

I liked the suggestion to invite all GP medalists to GPF the best. Including the ones who have a small SP medal from TEB. That would mean about a double count of competitors than the usual six, but there are often 12 entries in a category at the individual GP events anyway, so a GPF exception just for this once would be nice. It would cost no little amount of money, and mess up the current GPF schedule, but it appears more feasible to me than hosting a special stand-alone event just for the LPs. And for me, 12 medalists would make for a more exciting competition than just the usual top 6.

But I don't think the ISU will go for this, as it would mean too much paperwork, organization, and money. I'm resigned to hearing tomorrow that the SP scores will be the ones taken into consideration, and to waving bye to Liza or Max in the final. I'm sad about that, but for me that's the other best, and relatively fair, option.
And I'm glad all the skaters are safe. I feel deeply sorry for all those people who weren't, two days and two weeks ago.

 

[havefun]

Math is not convoluted. It is not subjective, it can use a large sample and a formula can be structured to come up with the highest probabilities.

Regarding the OP it is pretty amusing for me how when there is something that doesn't seem to work, people wrack their brains and come up with the most convoluted solutions to ideally preserve fairness. I don't mean this as a criticism, it's just a weird observation that I've made over the years.
But convoluted solutions are a logistic nightmare, complex to implement and difficult to understand and I am not sure that makes them the ultimate better solution. In the case of TEB, certainly whatever mathematical exercises are proposed they are still going to be as unfair to someone as just taking the SP scores but also an incredible hassle.

 

[4everchan]

math is not convoluted until you make subjective decision about what data you will use... like PB of LP or average of this or that...

Math is not convoluted. It is not subjective, it can use a large sample and a formula can be structured to come up with the highest probabilities.

 

[moriel]

Well, having the skaters acually skate their FS - for example right pefore the GPF (i'm sure they can manage to get 1 day of rink time), is more fair than just taking the SP.
Again, look at pairs. Taking the SP score there is just like tossing a die to decide who wins.

 

[mrrice]

Happy Sunday Everyone,

I have a question about the timing of when this situation will be resolved. Has a final decision been made? OK, here's my next question. Have any of you seen Ashley Wagner perform live? She certainly looks good on my PC screen and she's lovely when she's on TV. With that said. "I hate her LP music" Nicole Kidman's a great actress but, she can't sing. Her voice of shrill and as a vocalist myself, her singing is a bad as Flexed Feet in Pointe Shoes. :eeking: Does her music sound better in the Arena?

 

[tulosai]

Well, having the skaters acually skate their FS - for example right pefore the GPF (i'm sure they can manage to get 1 day of rink time), is more fair than just taking the SP.
Again, look at pairs. Taking the SP score there is just like tossing a die to decide who wins.

Again, I don't think anyone is actually arguing that it would not in some theoretical universe be fairest if everyone could skate their LP together. The problem is that this would cost tens of thousands of dollars. (Also again, for anyone who is not understanding costs: 54 athletes mus be flown there. Let's assume a ridiculously low (especially considering the short notice) average cost of $500 per plane ticket. We are already up to $27,000. They need 27 hotel rooms, let's say for just two nights even though that's possibly not realistic either. Let's again assume a ridiculously low group rate cost of $50/room/night. There goes another $27,000. They then also have to be fed, and typically judges and coaches are also fed for at least say 6 meals. Let's again assume ridiculously below market catering costs and say this would 'only' cost about $6,000, bringing us up to $60,000 minimum, and again, this is ridiculously lowballing costs- it would probably actually be closer to twice this much. There would then, in addition to this, be associated rink and venue costs, as well as a logistical nightmare as the cherry on top. Who is volunteering to pay it? You?

People who think the ISU or Spanish Federation just has this kind of money laying around are sadly misinformed and/or kidding themselves; those suggesting federations should chip in seem to lack an understanding about the kind of logistical nightmare and fights this would cause about which federation should pay what, as well as the fact that you have to then get all federations to agree in a very short time frame to all the conditions. This is an impossible idea. And you can substitute any country or other event with the GPF and it remains impossible because the math and also the logistical nightmare is the same. This idea in a bubble is fine, but under any kind of reality check examination at all the bubble pops.

 

[Ladskater]

You can or you can bomb even more than SP. You just don't know. Some just had bad luck and that's it. Sometimes sport is like this that someone wins thanks to luck and someone looses because of bad luck

maybe the term "bomb' should not be used here....just a thought

 

[4everchan]

the issue with this, aside from getting an extra day of ice time is that, logistically, it makes little sense...

just giving you a few examples :

Let's say, Shoma goes, messes up his LP, loses many points and is no longer in the top 6.. he is out of the competition, yet he has had to fly himself and his team to the GPF at quite an expense... (even if let's say the ISU would be funding this... it's a lot of money for speculative results)...

Let's say that for instance, Rippon and Brown are ranked 5 and 6 before the FP is reskated for others like Shoma and Chan... who have a very good chance to move them down, if not both, at least one of them.... why would Rippon and Brown fly across the ocean just in the random chance that they would hold on to their GPF assignment, knowing that Shoma and Chan may only need to medal to take them out....

For any re-take of the FP... you have to understand that some skaters wouldn't go...I doubt Denis would bother knowing that he has no chance to qualify... so already, one of the seeded skater is off the hook, making Shoma's and Chan's life much easier to place in the top 3....

Not only there are a bunch of logistical and practical issues but it changes the rules and conditions for skaters.... I believe that all need to have a fair and even chance to qualify, changing rules to give extra skates which will not be done in the same conditions is unfair.... it's also unfair for someone like Misha who couldn't attend because his visa didn't come in in time... would he be given a chance to skate then? if it's postponed?

as soon as one messes with rules, it opens a huge can of worms and there are many ways where it can be unfair for others....

As far as I am concerned, the only fair thing is to move on and make the SP count for medals/points. Skaters, when they performed and competed on Friday, did their best and tried hard to place as high as possible and earn as many points as possible.. yes, some do better traditionally in the LP... but it's like Misha's visa.. it ain't happening...

I am sure if you were to ask the athletes, the first thing they would mention is that under the circumstances, it's best the event was cancelled.... I am also convinced that most of them would be fine with the SP results as final results...

Finally, as far as pairs are concerned... well... it's the same for ice dance... it actually happens quite often that in dance the top 3 are apart by only a couple points, like in WC 2014... so what's different there? THey all skated well, performing similar elements... so that's just that...

Well, having the skaters acually skate their FS - for example right pefore the GPF (i'm sure they can manage to get 1 day of rink time), is more fair than just taking the SP.
Again, look at pairs. Taking the SP score there is just like tossing a die to decide who wins.

 

[sabinfire]

Let's say that for instance, Rippon and Brown are ranked 5 and 6 before the FP is reskated for others like Shoma and Chan... who have a very good chance to move them down, if not both, at least one of them.... why would Rippon and Brown fly across the ocean just in the random chance that they would hold on to their GPF assignment, knowing that Shoma and Chan may only need to medal to take them out....

Why? Probably for the same reason that Yulia came to compete at TEB this weekend. Skaters don't stop skating just because their chances of making the GPF are slim.

it's also unfair for someone like Misha who couldn't attend because his visa didn't come in in time... would he be given a chance to skate then? if it's postponed?

No, because he already withdrew from the event, right? And Misha's situation had zero to do with the Paris terror attacks.

 

[mrrice]

maybe the term "bomb' should not be used here....just a thought

I'm sure it was a freudian slip!

 

[mrrice]

Why? Probably for the same reason that Yulia came to compete at TEB this weekend. Skaters don't stop skating just because their chances of making the GPF are slim.

No, because he already withdrew from the event, right? And Misha's situation had zero to do with the Paris terror attacks.

True on all counts.

 

[NorthernDancers]

Here's my suggestion; I've seen similar in this thread but perhaps not the exact one. I would use only the SP from TEB for TEB points, because any other method (later freeskate, PB for freeskate, other event for freeskate) would introduce factors that would violate the "sameness" in day/ice conditions/judges that is essential for a consistent competition. THEN:

1. As always, calculate the Top 6 (and order of alternates) using results from the 6 events.
2. For TEB skaters only, ADD to the Top 6 field (but not alternates) anyone who did not make the Top 6 but did get a medal in one of the other Grand Prix events.

For ladies at TEB: Gracie makes the Top 6 based on Rule 1. Added due to Rule 2: Elizaveta. Possibly added: Roberta, if she medals at CoR. All others already have had their other event or don't have a 2nd event. Result: GPF field is expanded to 7 or 8.

For men at TEB: Shoma makes Top 6 based on Rule 1. If Patrick does not make it on Rule 1, he makes it on Rule 2. Daisuke and Max make it on Rule 2. If Maxim medals at NHK, he could make it on either rule. Result: GPF field is expanded to possibly 10.

For pairs at TEB: S/B and T/M make it on Rule 2 (and S/B possibly on Rule 1). These would need their 2nd event to make it on either rule: V/T, J/C, P/Z. So this could go up to 11, but likely no more than 9.

For dance at TEB: G/P make it on Rule 2 (and possibly Rule 1). H/D and S/B would need their 2nd event to make it on either rule. Result: GPF field is expanded to possibly 9, but likely no more than 8.

So really, this doesn't expand the GPF by large numbers. And, more importantly, doesn't reduce in any way the chances of skaters not at TEB to make the final.

I like this idea. I think it balances out the concerns around putting too much weight on the SP at TEB, while not discounting any other skaters and teams who would qualify through the other GP events. Logistically, I don't understand how this would create a great deal of pain for anyone organizing the event. Based on your likely calculations, and keeping in mind top 6, the total number of likely additional athletes across the entire event - all 4 disciplines - would be 16. Looking at flights under your scenario:

Men - 4 additional entries: adds 1 flight, no additional floods, since each flight normally would have maximum of 6 people, and floods occur after 2 flights
Ladies - 2 additional entries: adds 1 flight, no additional floods, for same reason as above
Dance - 2 additional entries: no additional flights or floods needed, as the allowed number of teams on the ice in dance at one time is 5 teams; therefore, there would already by 2 flights for the GPF
Pairs - 3 additional entries (up to 5): 1 additional flight whether it's 9 teams or 11 teams, since the maximum number of teams in a flight can be 4 in pairs; 1 extra flood would be required after the 2nd flight

In terms of added time, that's about 100 minutes extra of total budgeted competition time for the free programs and about 80 minutes for the short programs. With only 1 extra flood, only 15 minutes extra time required for each of short and free programs. Based on the schedule, Day 1 would need about an hour of extra competition time and 15 minutes for an extra flood; Day 2 would need about an hour of extra competition time and 15 minutes for an extra flood; Day 3 would need about 72 minutes of extra time. This is totally doable. Ticket holders wouldn't be upset. Events can be held on the same days, the times might be slightly different. They'll get more for their dollars. I'm sure there must be options to manage practise times - perhaps other rinks for events not competing that day, which leaves the ice open to accommodate the extra practise flights earlier in the day.

The costs for adding up to 16 athletes: hotels, flights, food, and maybe a little in official transit, but the transit is there anyway, and maybe practise ice in another rink. Athletes pay for their own coaches, feds send their own officials. No additional judges or other officials are required since the event is running anyway. Need some extra money? Fire up the marketing engines at ISU and the event to find some additional sponsorship, especially under these very unique and difficult circumstances, or share the additional costs across the federations participating in the GPF, and each could raise money in their own countries. Where there is a will, there is a way.

 

[Ladskater]

Perhaps, there is no "fair way" to pick GPF finalists. The important thing is that the skaters themselves are resilient and are coping with a very difficult situation. Our speculating the outcome of a competition is neither here nor there. I am sure the figure skating world will carry on.