Can Carolina Kostner win the 2014 Olympic title?

[Krislite]

[...]
And this pressure issue seems to be the crux of this curse of the favourite, so really, ya never know. That said, Carolina will be going up against the lady who broke this alleged, decades-long "curse," so there's that, but still.

This so-called "curse" is made up. It was only in 2002 and 2006 that it really applied. Prior to that and afterwards, the reigning ladies' World Champion won the Olympics most of the time.

 

[aftertherain]

This so-called "curse" is made up. It was only in 2002 and 2006 that it really applied. Prior to that and afterwards, the reigning ladies' World Champion won the Olympics most of the time.

Besides, we all know Yuna only won because she was wearing a blue dress. Duh. One look at that and the judges were like, "Girl, you win."

 

[Krislite]

Besides, we all know Yuna only won because she was wearing a blue dress. Duh. One look at that and the judges were like, "Girl, you win."

Exactly! It's all about the dress, and whoever has the prettiest blue dress wins. Unfortunately, since Carolina will be skating to Scheherazade, it's unlikely she'll be wearing a blue dress.

 

[aftertherain]

Exactly! It's all about the dress, and whoever has the prettiest blue dress wins. Unfortunately, since Carolina will be skating to Scheherazade, it's unlikely she'll be wearing a blue dress.

Yup. Totally given that your chances of winning will be drastically higher for winning that OGM if you wear a blue dress! After all, Sarah Hughes won hers because her dress was the closest to a blue in the top three, while those of Tara Lipinski and Shizuka Arakawa had shades of cobalt blue to them. So talent doesn't matter, no! It's the color of the dress you wear that will determine the outcome.

And hey, Mao wore a blue costume for her Scheherazade, and so did Miki. Then again, that does probably mean that Carolina's not going to wear a blue nor a red dress for her take on it. Green perhaps? Purple?

Maybe the next determination of the OGM winner will be a different color dress. Gasp! Queen!Yuna and PrimaBallerina!Mao, be prepared eat your training tights, because Diva!Carolina is coming out to get you two in her [insert color here] dress!

 

[OS]

Besides, we all know Yuna only won because she was wearing a blue dress. Duh. One look at that and the judges were like, "Girl, you win."

Ahem... hey Mirai is wearing a blue dress for her Gershwin SP this year (Yup I haven't given up on her! Come on Mirai!)

 

[TryMeLater]

But she isn't clean all the time, unless by clean you mean not falling. She has only skated back-to-back clean programs twice at a major competition in her senior career. I think Yu Na is fully deserving of big GOE on her 3-3 and 3-lutz. They are the best--her 3-3 probably the best ever by a female skater. I'm not so sure she is is that much better on her other jumps and certainly is not on her spins and spirals. I also don't think Yu Na deserves PCS that is more than Mao or Caro if they skate well.

A clean skate is not falling and basically receiving very few negative GOE's. Yuna has done it plenty of times, maybe not back to back, but she had a lot of clean LPs and SPs.
Caro is someone who was brilliant technically at her early senior career under 6.0 (She did a 3Lz-3T, 3F-3T and 2A-1/2L-3S in her 2003 European LP),
and no she is brilliant artistically.
It will be interesting to see what will happen if both 6/7 triple Yuna and 7 triple Caro are clean (Caro needs 7 triples because she only does one Lutz and one Flip)...

 

[jenaj]

A clean skate is not falling and basically receiving very few negative GOE's. Yuna has done it plenty of times, maybe not back to back, but she had a lot of clean LPs and SPs.

I disagree. A clean skate is not falling or stepping out or or popping jumps. Yu Na has rarely completed a long program without popping one or more jumps. She only has two clean long programs in her senior career at the international level. She is a much better short program skater and often has basically become unbeatable by building up a big lead in the short program.

 

[Dragonlady]

I disagree. A clean skate is not falling or stepping out or or popping jumps. Yu Na has rarely completed a long program without popping one or more jumps. She only has two clean long programs in her senior career at the international level. She is a much better short program skater and often has basically become unbeatable by building up a big lead in the short program.

I'm sorry but the woman has consistently posted record scores in both her short and her long programs and won both the long and short programs. This idea that she's amassing a huge lead in the SP and then resting on her laurels in the long is completely inaccurate. Even with an occasional mistake, her scores are head and shoulders above the rest of the field, when she is skating close to her full capability.

 

[jenaj]

I'm sorry but the woman has consistently posted record scores in both her short and her long programs and won both the long and short programs. This idea that she's amassing a huge lead in the SP and then resting on her laurels in the long is completely inaccurate. Even with an occasional mistake, her scores are head and shoulders above the rest of the field, when she is skating close to her full capability.

But do you agree that a skate with one or more popped jumps is "clean?"

 

[aftertherain]

Geez, this took longer to do than the other one.

[Yuna Kim] is a much better short program skater and often has basically become unbeatable by building up a big lead in the short program.

Ooh, reminds me of this ol' saying in figure skating:
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/01/08/s...ogram-2-1-2-minutes-of-compulsory-terror.html

''It's the old saying, you can't win a competition in the short program, but you can lose,'' said Richard Callaghan, who coaches Lipinski.

But anyway, gasp! Challenge accepted! This looks like fun (again). Also, I am still comparing Yuna, Carolina, and Mao.

(+/- numbers = amount of points from first place or second place, respectively)

Events where these three have WON the SP, but NOT the FS and were still crowned the overall winners (starting from 2006-2007):

1. Yuna:
   • 2007-2008 GPF: 64.62 SP (-2.80), 132.21 FS (2nd, +0.34), 196.83 FIN (-5.24)
   • 2008-2009 4CC: 72.24 SP (-5.34), 116.83 FS (3rd, +1.83), 189.07 FIN (-5.16)
   • 2008-2009 USA: 76.28 SP (-17.48), 111.70 FS (2nd, +4.41), 187.98 FIN (-13.07)
2. Carolina:
   • 2007-2008 EC: 59.31 SP (-0.71), 111.97 FS (2nd, +1.03), 171.28 FIN (-1.84)
   • 2010-2011 JPN: 57.27 SP (-1.17), 107.34 FS (2nd, +0.01), 164.61 FIN (-3.57)
3. Mao:
   • 2007-2008 NAT: 72.92 SP (-4.24), 132.41 FS (2nd, +3.09), 205.33 FIN (-1.25)
   • 2012-2013 JPN: 67.95 SP (-6.77), 117.32 FS (2nd, +9.30), 185.27 FIN (-0.05)

Events where these three have LOST the SP, but WON the FS and were still crowned the overall winners (starting from 2006-2007):

1. Yuna:
   • 2006-2007 GPF: 65.06 SP (3rd), 119.14 FS, 184.20 FIN (-11.68)
   • 2006-2007 CHN: 58.32 SP (3rd), 122.36 FS, 180.68 FIN (-24.34)
   • 2009-2010 GPF: 65.64 SP (2nd), 123.22 FS, 188.86 FIN (-2.92)
2. Carolina:
   • 2006-2007 EC: 60.46 SP (2nd), 114.33 FS, 174.79 FIN (-3.51)
   • 2008-2009 RUS: 57.02 SP (2nd), 113.70 FS, 170.72 FIN (-4.66)
   • 2011-2012 WC: 61.00 (3rd), 128.94 FS, 189.94 FIN (-5.66)
3. Mao:
   • 2007-2008 CAN: 58.08 SP (3rd), 119.58 FS, 177.66 FIN (-8.23)
   • 2008-2009 GPF: 65.38 SP (2nd), 123.17 FS, 188.55 FIN (-2.20)
   • 2009-2010 4CC: 57.22 SP (3rd), 126.74 FS, 183.96 FIN (-10.24)
   • 2012-2013 CHN: 62.89 SP (2nd), 118.87 FS, 181.76 FIN (-3.84)
   • 2012-2013 NAT: 62.81 SP (2nd), 130.75 FS, 193.56 FIN (-9.89)

----------------
In conclusion, once again, on paper, they all look relatively evenly matched. People seem to gravitate towards Yuna because of her lack of off-podium finishes and her WR scores (and the various qualities that she has that earn her those scores).

There are only three instances where Yuna Kim did not win both the SP and the LP to win overall with more than 10 points. In the first two cases (06-07 GPF and 06-07 GP CHN), it was because her competitors faltered quite badly in the free skate. In the third case (08-09 SA), she really did build a lead big enough that no one in that field could beat her. The former cases also applied to Mao Asada at the 09-10 4CC competition and almost at 12-13 JPN Nationals. Also, Mao Asada seems to like mounting free-skate comebacks. Carolina is no slouch either.

Anyone else want to put a stats challenge to the test? These are quite fun, I admit!

P.S. I love Wikipedia and the people who take the time to create such articles.

 

[Krislite]

Ooh, reminds me of this ol' saying in figure skating:
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/01/08/s...ogram-2-1-2-minutes-of-compulsory-terror.html


But anyway, gasp! Challenge accepted! This looks like fun (again). Also, I am still comparing Yuna, Carolina, and Mao.

(+/- numbers = amount of points from first place or second place, respectively)

Events where these three have WON the SP, but NOT the FS and were still crowned the overall winners (starting from 2006-2007):

1. Yuna:
   • 2007-2008 GPF: 64.62 SP (-2.80), 132.21 FS (2nd, +0.34), 196.83 FIN (-5.24)
   • 2008-2009 4CC: 72.24 SP (-5.34), 116.83 FS (3rd, +1.83), 189.07 FIN (-5.16)
   • 2008-2009 USA: 76.28 SP (-17.48), 111.70 FS (2nd, +4.41), 187.98 FIN (-13.07)
2. Carolina:
   • 2007-2008 EC: 59.31 SP (-0.71), 111.97 FS (2nd, +1.03), 171.28 FIN (-1.84)
   • 2010-2011 JPN: 57.27 SP (-1.17), 107.34 FS (2nd, +0.01), 164.61 FIN (-3.57)
3. Mao:
   • 2007-2008 NAT: 72.92 SP (-4.24), 132.41 FS (2nd, +3.09), 205.33 FIN (-1.25)
   • 2012-2013 JPN: 67.95 SP (-6.77), 117.32 FS (2nd, +9.30), 185.27 FIN (-0.05)

Events where these three have LOST the SP, but WON the FS and were still crowned the overall winners (starting from 2006-2007):

1. Yuna:
   • 2006-2007 GPF: 65.06 SP (3rd), 119.14 FS, 184.20 FIN (-11.68)
   • 2006-2007 CHN: 58.32 SP (3rd), 122.36 FS, 180.68 FIN (-24.34)
   • 2009-2010 GPF: 65.64 SP (2nd), 123.22 FS, 188.86 FIN (-2.92)
2. Carolina:
   • 2006-2007 EC: 60.46 SP (2nd), 114.33 FS, 174.79 FIN (-3.51)
   • 2008-2009 RUS: 57.02 SP (2nd), 113.70 FS, 170.72 FIN (-4.66)
   • 2011-2012 WC: 61.00 (3rd), 128.94 FS, 189.94 FIN (-5.66)
3. Mao:
   • 2007-2008 CAN: 58.08 SP (3rd), 119.58 FS, 177.66 FIN (-8.23)
   • 2008-2009 GPF: 65.38 SP (2nd), 123.17 FS, 188.55 FIN (-2.20)
   • 2009-2010 4CC: 57.22 SP (3rd), 126.74 FS, 183.96 FIN (-10.24)
   • 2012-2013 CHN: 62.89 SP (2nd), 118.87 FS, 181.76 FIN (-3.84)
   • 2012-2013 NAT: 62.81 SP (2nd), 130.75 FS, 193.56 FIN (-9.89)

----------------
In conclusion, once again, on paper, they all look relatively evenly matched. People seem to gravitate towards Yuna because of her lack of off-podium finishes and her WR scores (and the various qualities that she has that earn her those scores).

There are only three instances where Yuna Kim did not win both the SP and the LP to win overall with more than 10 points. In the first two cases (06-07 GPF and 06-07 GP CHN), it was because her competitors faltered quite badly in the free skate. In the second case (08-09 SA), she really did build a lead big enough that no one in that field could beat her. The former cases also applied to Mao Asada at the 09-10 4CC competition and almost at 12-13 JPN Nationals. Also, Mao Asada seems to like mounting free-skate comebacks. Carolina is no slouch either.

Anyone else want to put a stats challenge to the test? These are quite fun, I admit!

P.S. I love Wikipedia and the people who take the time to create such articles.

Good stuff! You gotta love it when people insist Yuna only wins because of her SP lead. Then you take a look at her actual competitions and she's almost always won the LP, too.

 

[jenaj]

Interesting, but the point I was really trying to make was that Yu Na has rarely skated a clean long program (ie, one without mistakes). Not true of the short program.

Geez, this took longer to do than the other one.



Ooh, reminds me of this ol' saying in figure skating:
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/01/08/s...ogram-2-1-2-minutes-of-compulsory-terror.html


But anyway, gasp! Challenge accepted! This looks like fun (again). Also, I am still comparing Yuna, Carolina, and Mao.

(+/- numbers = amount of points from first place or second place, respectively)

Events where these three have WON the SP, but NOT the FS and were still crowned the overall winners (starting from 2006-2007):

1. Yuna:
   • 2007-2008 GPF: 64.62 SP (-2.80), 132.21 FS (2nd, +0.34), 196.83 FIN (-5.24)
   • 2008-2009 4CC: 72.24 SP (-5.34), 116.83 FS (3rd, +1.83), 189.07 FIN (-5.16)
   • 2008-2009 USA: 76.28 SP (-17.48), 111.70 FS (2nd, +4.41), 187.98 FIN (-13.07)
2. Carolina:
   • 2007-2008 EC: 59.31 SP (-0.71), 111.97 FS (2nd, +1.03), 171.28 FIN (-1.84)
   • 2010-2011 JPN: 57.27 SP (-1.17), 107.34 FS (2nd, +0.01), 164.61 FIN (-3.57)
3. Mao:
   • 2007-2008 NAT: 72.92 SP (-4.24), 132.41 FS (2nd, +3.09), 205.33 FIN (-1.25)
   • 2012-2013 JPN: 67.95 SP (-6.77), 117.32 FS (2nd, +9.30), 185.27 FIN (-0.05)

Events where these three have LOST the SP, but WON the FS and were still crowned the overall winners (starting from 2006-2007):

1. Yuna:
   • 2006-2007 GPF: 65.06 SP (3rd), 119.14 FS, 184.20 FIN (-11.68)
   • 2006-2007 CHN: 58.32 SP (3rd), 122.36 FS, 180.68 FIN (-24.34)
   • 2009-2010 GPF: 65.64 SP (2nd), 123.22 FS, 188.86 FIN (-2.92)
2. Carolina:
   • 2006-2007 EC: 60.46 SP (2nd), 114.33 FS, 174.79 FIN (-3.51)
   • 2008-2009 RUS: 57.02 SP (2nd), 113.70 FS, 170.72 FIN (-4.66)
   • 2011-2012 WC: 61.00 (3rd), 128.94 FS, 189.94 FIN (-5.66)
3. Mao:
   • 2007-2008 CAN: 58.08 SP (3rd), 119.58 FS, 177.66 FIN (-8.23)
   • 2008-2009 GPF: 65.38 SP (2nd), 123.17 FS, 188.55 FIN (-2.20)
   • 2009-2010 4CC: 57.22 SP (3rd), 126.74 FS, 183.96 FIN (-10.24)
   • 2012-2013 CHN: 62.89 SP (2nd), 118.87 FS, 181.76 FIN (-3.84)
   • 2012-2013 NAT: 62.81 SP (2nd), 130.75 FS, 193.56 FIN (-9.89)

----------------
In conclusion, once again, on paper, they all look relatively evenly matched. People seem to gravitate towards Yuna because of her lack of off-podium finishes and her WR scores (and the various qualities that she has that earn her those scores).

There are only three instances where Yuna Kim did not win both the SP and the LP to win overall with more than 10 points. In the first two cases (06-07 GPF and 06-07 GP CHN), it was because her competitors faltered quite badly in the free skate. In the third case (08-09 SA), she really did build a lead big enough that no one in that field could beat her. The former cases also applied to Mao Asada at the 09-10 4CC competition and almost at 12-13 JPN Nationals. Also, Mao Asada seems to like mounting free-skate comebacks. Carolina is no slouch either.

Anyone else want to put a stats challenge to the test? These are quite fun, I admit!

P.S. I love Wikipedia and the people who take the time to create such articles.

 

[vegarin]

Oi, aftertherain, that is impressive. Thanks for an interesting read!

Interesting, but the point I was really trying to make was that Yu Na has rarely skated a clean long program (ie, one without mistakes). Not true of the short program.

The conventional wisdom (not having done the research like fabulous aftertherain has done) tells me she's done more clean SPs than LPs (one without any mistake whatsoever). That said, I'm actually curious -- who else has done mistake-free LPs in Ladies in the last five years and how often? And only counting the podium-winners? (For instance, I think Zijun Li may have been obvious flaw-free in her LP in 2013, if I recall correctly, but she didn't end up on the podium.)

I mean, the conventional wisdom may say Caro rarely goes clean, but I have no stats to back that up, so that may just be a fad as well.

 

[aftertherain]

Interesting, but the point I was really trying to make was that Yu Na has rarely skated a clean long program (ie, one without mistakes). Not true of the short program.

I know, but I wanted to do it anyway. And like I said in this post here, the big three have all had limited "clean" free skates, which means that they've had even less clean back-to-back performances. I'm pretty sure that, without doing the stats, at least Mao and Yuna have more clean SPs than they do LPs and so do many other skaters.

I also don't think Yu Na deserves PCS that is more than Mao or Caro if they skate well.

And as for your other point a few pages back, yes, I do think Mao and Carolina deserved the same level of PCS that Yuna does when they deliver--but when in recent years have they REALLY delivered on a free skate?

But let's compare short program PCS first.

(Major events, SP):
Of course, let us not forget that Mao Asada holds the highest SP score for the ladies in the 2012-2013 season, and it is very well deserved. I don't think even Yuna's SP at Worlds could've or should've beaten that. I think it could have come close--I still think Yuna got dinged on GOE, but her PCS was quite fair--sure, but not beat it. But if you compare Yuna's WC 2013 SP and Mao's 2013 4CC SP, you will find that Mao's overall PCS is slightly higher than Yuna's (33.86 vs. 33.18).

Now, comparing this to Carolina's at 2013 WC (33.85), they would be ranked like this for the PCS of 2012-2013 Major Events SP: Mao > Carolina > Yuna -- overall point difference of 0.68. It is interesting to note that they all got around the same +GOE.

(Minor events, SP):
I decided to separate the major and minor events because I'm sure that both Carolina and Yuna were more subjected to bias in these competitions if you look at who their competitors were. And of course, there is always a slight lean towards Mao Asada at NHK--I mean, let's be real here. There is. But the downside is that her competitors are probably more fierce, which made her programs look much less "OMG GOOD PERFORMANCE, MUST REWARD".

By comparing these, Yuna is the biggest winner of them all--but not by much. She garnered a 34.85 at NRW while Carolina got 34.60 at International Challenge Cup. Mao comes in at third with a 32.25 at NHK.

They would be ranked like this for the PCS of 2012-2013 Minor Events SP: Yuna > Carolina > Mao -- overall point difference of 2.60.

So yes, certainly Mao and Carolina are the only ones who come close to Yuna on PCS, the scores for the SP reflect that. However, they have yet to deliver free skates as clean as those of Yuna's recently, so that's why they're not getting them.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

If Carolina skates cleanly, she should beat yuna by a huge margin. Someone with better programs and better skating skill won't lose to Yuna if both are clean.

That's a big if. I think she can beat Yu Na if she skates cleanly and if Yu Na makes mistakes. If both skate cleanly, Yu Na will still win due to greater difficulty. I can picture Kostner getting higher PCS (I mean the judges gave her higher PCS in her WC2013 SP with a fall) than Yu Na, but the separation in their PCS scores is too close for Kostner to make it up in difficulty. Other than Italian nationals (where Kostner had no 3-3) I've never seen her skate cleanly. I'm hoping she can get it together for the Olympics, but she's always been that skater who I've watched in awe at her skating and then been like "When's the major error... when's the major error... oh, there it is." And her track record for peaking at the Olympics has been poor (9th and 16th). I think her PCS at this point is certainly good enough for her to medal even if she skates poorly, but I don't think it's enough to win (even if she skates well), unless Yu Na screws up.

 

[aftertherain]

And now for free skate PCS of 2012-2013 for scores of 129+.

International results

1. Yuna (~ 71.5 PCS)
   • Worlds: 148.34 FS (73.61 PCS, +16.51 GOE)
   • NRW Trophy: 129.34 FS (69.52 PCS, +8.94 GOE)
2. Carolina (~ 70 PCS)
   • Worlds: 131.03 FS (70.69 PCS, +10.59 GOE)
   • Europeans: 130.52 FS (70.28 PCS, +10.92 GOE)
3. Mao (~ 67.5 PCS)
   • Worlds: 134.37 FS (68.41 PCS, +3.66 GOE)
   • Four Continents: 130.96 FS (67.76 PCS, +3.66 GOE)
   • Grand Prix Final: 129.84 FS (66.39 PCS, +7.67 GOE)

National results

1. Yuna: 145.80 FS (75.01 PCS, +13.17 GOE)
2. Carolina: 143.56 FS (76.64 PCS, +12.70 GOE)
3. Mao: 130.75 FS (68.24 PCS, +6.86 GOE)

As we all might have suspected, +GOE and higher PCS seem to be related for the most part; the higher your +GOE, the higher the PCS. Which is why Carolina has gotten PCS in the 70s all season and why Mao Asada needs to clean up her programs, jump-wise. Both Carolina and Mao are certainly capable of getting equal or higher PCS than Yuna (and beating her), but it's really a matter of being clean and crisp while maintaining difficulty.

 

[mary01]

And now for free skate PCS of 2012-2013 for scores of 129+.

International results

1. Yuna
   • Worlds: 148.34 FS (73.61 PCS, +16.51 GOE)
   • NRW Trophy: 129.34 FS (69.52 PCS, +8.94 GOE)
2. Carolina
   • Worlds: 131.03 FS (70.69 PCS, +10.59 GOE)
   • Europeans: 130.52 FS (70.28 PCS, +10.92 GOE)
3. Mao
   • Worlds: 134.37 FS (68.41 PCS, +3.66 GOE)
   • Four Continents: 130.96 FS (67.76 PCS, +3.66 GOE)
   • Grand Prix Final: 129.84 FS (66.39 PCS, +7.67 GOE)

National results

1. Yuna: 145.80 FS (75.01 PCS, +13.17 GOE)
2. Carolina: 143.56 FS (76.64 PCS, +12.70 GOE)
3. Mao: 130.75 FS (68.24 PCS, +6.86 GOE)

As we all might have suspected, +GOE and higher PCS seem to be related. Which is why Carolina has gotten PCS in the 70s all season and why Mao Asada needs to clean up her programs, jump-wise. Both Carolina and Mao are certainly capable of getting equal or higher PCS than Yuna (and beating her), but it's really a matter of being clean and crisp while maintaining difficulty.

What you are saying sounds very contradicting to my ears, first you say that PCS is related to clean skates, then you give an example (Carolina has gotten 70s all season in PCS) which proves the opposite. Carolina has had two technically very flawed skates, at Worlds her BV was merely (50.75) and at Europeans her BV was (49.32). In both programs she made major mistakes like falling and popping jumps, but in both events she still received the second highest presentation score of the season. The only logical conclusion there is to draw from this, is that the technical score and presentation scores are two different part of the scoring that rarely affect each other!

 

[aftertherain]

What you are saying sounds very contradicting to my ears, first you say that PCS is related to clean skates, then you give an example (Carolina has gotten 70s all season in PCS) which proves the opposite. Carolina has had two technically very flawed skates, at Worlds her BV was merely (50.75) and at Europeans her BV was (49.32). In both programs she made major mistakes like falling and popping jumps, but in both events she still received the second highest presentation score of the season. The only logical conclusion there is to draw from this, is that the technical score and presentation scores are two different part of the scoring that rarely affect each other!

In many cases, +GOE reflects on PCS, but not all--I edited my statement before you quoted me. Also, like others have stated in the BV thread, base value is only one facet to an entire program. Carolina's steps and transitions have been praised time and time again, and while she has fallen and popped a few jumps, what she actually manages to complete is done quite well. If she were cleaner, perhaps she would get even higher PCS from the judges. Carolina actually didn't do too badly at 2013 EC (two doubled jumps, level 4s on almost all spins) and 2013 WC (one singled jump, one fall--but changed from 3F+2T to 3F+3T, level 4s on all spins).

An example would be Carolina's results at 2012 WC and 2011 SA. Same program, different performances. At Skate America, she did singled a 2Lo and only got level 1 on two of her four spins. She got about six points in GOE and 61.67 in PCS for her efforts. At the World Championships, her only mistake was a 2F instead of a 3F, and got level 4 on all four of her spins. She earned ten points in GOE and 65.72 for her efforts. Cleaner performance, higher GOE, higher PCS even if her program that year was without a 3Lz.

Take Yuna, for another example. Her BV is quite low, but when she is on, her numerous +GOEs catapult her to the very top. Her PCS rises as well. If you look at her NRW Trophy results, she fell once and popped three jumps (1A+1T+1Lo), and still managed to get almost +9.00 GOE as well as almost 70 in PCS. Compare that to her WC performance where she was totally clean and her GOE rose seven points and her PCS a little more than three. The same thing can be seen if you compare her 2009 TEB results (one skipped jump) with her LPs from 2009 GPF (one downgrade, one arguably popped jump) or SA (three downgrades, one fall). Her cleaner performance at TEB garnered her higher GOE and PCS.

What about Mao Asada? Let's compare 2013 WC and 2012 NHK. At NHK, she doubled three jumps, singled one another jump, and got level 3 on two of her four spins. This got her about eight points in GOE and 64.54 in PCS. At Worlds, she received two downgrades, but had level 4 on all her spins, earning more then three points in GOE and a 68.41 in PCS. This is where GOE and PCS didn't match up. However, it is interesting to note that her jump layout for both programs were different. With higher risk (i.e. 3A and 3F+2Lo+2Lo instead of 3Lo+2Lo+2Lo) at 2013 WC, her +GOE was less than it was at NHK, but her base value was certainly higher. Had she not messed up her 3A and 3F (the judges gave her -2.14 and -1.40, respectively--very costly), I believe we would have seen higher +GOE at WC as well.

So yes, all three of them are so talented, so experienced, that they are all capable of getting high GOE and PCS with flawed performances, but if they were to go totally clean, their scores would be even higher. Does that make sense?

 

[mary01]

Like others have stated in the BV thread, base value is only one facet to an entire program. Carolina's steps and transitions have been praised time and time again, and while she has fallen and popped a few jumps, what she actually manages to complete is done quite well. If she were cleaner, perhaps she would get even higher PCS from the judges.

Take Yuna, for example. Her BV is quite low, but when she is on, her numerous +GOE catapults her to the very top. Her PCS rises as well. If you look at her NRW Trophy results, she fell once and popped three jumps (1A+1T+1Lo), and still managed to get almost +9.00 GOE as well as almost 70 in PCS. Compare that to her WC performance where she was totally clean and her GOE rose seven points and her PCS a little more than three.

So yes, all three of them are so talented, so experienced, that they are all capable of getting high GOE and PCS with flawed performances, but if they were to go totally clean, their scores would be even higher. Does that make sense?

I know that BV is only one facet of the scoring, you can take a look at the whole Technical score, that wouldn't change much. All three of them being talented and experienced and therefor capable of getting high goe and pcs with flawed performances, doesn't change the point I was making earlier. Since I'm not talking about when they (Mao, yuna, and caro) are competing against other skaters.
Bottom line is that, when two top skaters compete against each other one delivering a technically stronger performance and still losing to the other (who made major mistakes) in PCS, clearly shows that the judges are not giving the highest presentation scores to the one who skated most clean.

This years World championships and European championship has shown that, and many other past event have also repeatedly shown that even when top skaters are competing against each other the one with the cleanest performance is not necessary the one get's the highest presentation scores (but exceptions do happen)

 

[aftertherain]

This years World championships and European championship has shown that, and many other past event have also repeatedly shown that even when top skaters are competing against each other the one with the cleanest performance is not necessary the one get's the highest presentation scores (but exceptions do happen)

You're talking about generally, and that's fine, but I was talking about what what relevant to the topic at hand. Assuming that Yuna goes clean or almost clean at the Olympics, Carolina and Mao both need much cleaner skates with all elements executed with good/excellent quality in order to win against her. Hypothetically, they are certainly capable of matching or beating such high scores, but they have not done anything like it in recent years.

Only having good PCS is not going to fly when it comes to competing with Yuna.