Can Carolina Kostner win the 2014 Olympic title?

[Icey]

A one year increase in age, at her age, can make a difference. I think there will some level of technical skill deterioration and that she will be the bronze medalist. Which Kostner is Lori choreographing for? That could be problematic too, although probably solvable .

 

[pangtongfan]

That's a big if. I think she can beat Yu Na if she skates cleanly and if Yu Na makes mistakes. If both skate cleanly, Yu Na will still win due to greater difficulty. I can picture Kostner getting higher PCS (I mean the judges gave her higher PCS in her WC2013 SP with a fall) than Yu Na, but the separation in their PCS scores is too close for Kostner to make it up in difficulty. Other than Italian nationals (where Kostner had no 3-3) I've never seen her skate cleanly. I'm hoping she can get it together for the Olympics, but she's always been that skater who I've watched in awe at her skating and then been like "When's the major error... when's the major error... oh, there it is." And her track record for peaking at the Olympics has been poor (9th and 16th). I think her PCS at this point is certainly good enough for her to medal even if she skates poorly, but I don't think it's enough to win (even if she skates well), unless Yu Na screws up.

IMO this years Worlds was the only possible chance Kostner ever had or ever will have to beat a clean Yu Na Kim. I am not sure she would have won even if she was clean (she would have won the short program for sure) but she might have. If she had one clean competition in store this years Worlds was where she needed to show it as it was the only time she had enough clout, momentum (along with skating ability of course) for the judges to even consider putting her over a clean Yu Na Kim.

Next year I would say she will have no chance of beating a clean Yu Na Kim. As you said she will need to be perfect (something she has never done still) and Yu Na to make mistakes. She has given up her status as World Champion, and she has allowed Yu Na to regain her reputation as by far the dominant skater by not even skating well to keep it close at Worlds. Basically any intangible momentum or edge she had is completely gone now.

I highly doubt she will even get higher PCS than Yu Na next year. PCS is as much about reputation, momentum, pecking order, and who is the perceived favorite as actual skating, especialy when the skating itself is close in quality. Kim is again the reigning Olympic and World Champion, and heavy favorite, and that combined with the quality of her own skating will almost ensure her getting the highest PCS again. Kostner gave up that chance when she faltered and finished a distant 2nd at Worlds, unless she has out of the World programs that blow Yu Na's away in choreography and impact next year. What you saw in the SP at Worlds, Kostner falling and still getting higher PCS than a cleanish Yu Na Kim will never happen again, especialy as Kim will be hard pressed to come up with a program as lackluster and boring as her short program music and choreography of this year anyway.

The only one who might have a chance now against a clean Kim is a clean Asada attempting her current insane jump layouts (and that is obviously hugely unlikely to ever happen).

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

IMO this years Worlds was the only possible chance Kostner ever had or ever will have to beat a clean Yu Na Kim. I am not sure she would have won even if she was clean (she would have won the short program for sure) but she might have. If she had one clean competition in store this years Worlds was where she needed to show it as it was the only time she had enough clout, momentum (along with skating ability of course) for the judges to even consider putting her over a clean Yu Na Kim.

Next year I would say she will have no chance of beating a clean Yu Na Kim. As you said she will need to be perfect (something she has never done still) and Yu Na to make mistakes. She has given up her status as World Champion, and she has allowed Yu Na to regain her reputation as by far the dominant skater by not even skating well to keep it close at Worlds. Basically any intangible momentum or edge she had is completely gone now.

I highly doubt she will even get higher PCS than Yu Na next year. PCS is as much about reputation, momentum, pecking order, and who is the perceived favorite as actual skating, especialy when the skating itself is close in quality. Kim is again the reigning Olympic and World Champion, and heavy favorite, and that combined with the quality of her own skating will almost ensure her getting the highest PCS again. Kostner gave up that chance when she faltered and finished a distant 2nd at Worlds, unless she has out of the World programs that blow Yu Na's away in choreography and impact next year. What you saw in the SP at Worlds, Kostner falling and still getting higher PCS than a cleanish Yu Na Kim will never happen again, especialy as Kim will be hard pressed to come up with a program as lackluster and boring as her short program music and choreography of this year anyway.

The only one who might have a chance now against a clean Kim is a clean Asada attempting her current insane jump layouts (and that is obviously hugely unlikely to ever happen).

I wouldn't say Kostner allowed Yu Na to regain her reputation... she still pulled out her 3F-3T at Worlds, and would have been leading the SP if not for the fall, so it's not like she didn't try. However, her main issue is that Kim regained her form and continued to get higher GOE. There was absolutely no possibility of Kostner winning at Worlds and it was a miracle she came 2nd. She was gifted with a personal best in a FS with a pop and <<fall, though I do agree that she could have surpassed 140 points in her FS with a clean skate... however, when compared to Kim, neither Kostner nor anyone in the rest of the field would have stood a chance. The fact that Asada needs a 3A to keep up with Kim just goes to show how far ahead of the field she is. I would love for Mao to do an 8 triple FS in Sochi, but that is very unlikely.

I wouldn't hold it against Kostner for faltering and finishing a distant 2nd at Worlds... I think even at her best she could have come no less than 5 points of Kim's total score (21 points is a lot of ground to make up). Also we need to bear in mind that Kim's technical content - even without the 2A-3T - is far greater than Kostner's and this is only amplified by GOE.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

A one year increase in age, at her age, can make a difference. I think there will some level of technical skill deterioration and that she will be the bronze medalist.

This is an interesting point, and something a lot of us seem to not consider. We always assume that because skaters work hard over the summer that they will come back better next year, but we know this is often not the case. Caro, Mao, and even Yuna may have already peaked despite how strong they looked at times last year.

 

[lcd]

I think there's a lot to be said about training and competing "smart" once the athlete gets to a certain level of experience and age. In other sports, there are noteworthy of examples of "older" athletes (granted exceptional and rare athletes) who are able to sustain performance, at big events, at a very high level. The swimmer Dara Torres comes to mind. The tennis player Martina Navratilova as well. Similar to how Michele K began managing her career, not doing every event out there, can have body preserving benefits. Experience can lend a lot towards "delivering" when it matters. Training - both in form, volume and rhythm - can be varied to best meet the needs of trying to achieve highly at relatively few and targeted events.

 

[FlattFan]

Also we need to bear in mind that Kim's technical content - even without the 2A-3T - is far greater than Kostner's and this is only amplified by GOE.

Kim's technical content is far greater than Kostner's?
You need remedial math ... or a calculator. Kostner's BV is higher and Kostner has no problem matching Kim's GOE.

 

[aftertherain]

Kim's technical content is far greater than Kostner's?
You need remedial math ... or a calculator. Kostner's BV is higher and Kostner has no problem matching Kim's GOE.

Carolina's BV is higher only if she completes all elements cleanly. Her BV for FS at 2013 WC was 50.75, but had she done the 3Lo and 3S perfectly, her BV would have been around 59 to Yuna's 58.22. And I agree that she has less of a problem than other skaters matching Yuna's GOE.

 

[Moment]

Carolina's BV is lower than Yuna's when both SP and FS are considered.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Carolina's BV is lower than Yuna's when both SP and FS are considered.

This is what I was referring to. On paper, Kim's SP is far more demanding... and Kim's jump layout that she typically does is more challenging than what Kostner attempts (let alone successfully done).

As mentioned somewhere, Kostner's highest BV last season was only 50.75 points.

 

[FlattFan]

a 3T-3T and 3Lo is only 2 point back from a 3Lz-3T and 3F.
Caro make it up through other ways.
Look at their BV at W, 29.93 vs. 31.63. Assuming no changes.

in the LP, Caro's BV is higher due to the extra triple. So combined, it would be within a point. Far greater? Yeah, sure.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

a 3T-3T and 3Lo is only 2 point back from a 3Lz-3T and 3F.
Caro make it up through other ways.
Look at their BV at W, 29.93 vs. 31.63. Assuming no changes.

in the LP, Caro's BV is higher due to the extra triple. So combined, it would be within a point. Far greater? Yeah, sure.

Sorry, when was the last time Kostner actually executed (or even rotated) that extra 7th triple in the LP? But it's kind of moot like saying Asada's BV is so much higher when she has yet to execute 8 triples (or rotate 8 triples, even).

 

[pangtongfan]

I wouldn't say Kostner allowed Yu Na to regain her reputation... she still pulled out her 3F-3T at Worlds, and would have been leading the SP if not for the fall, so it's not like she didn't try. However, her main issue is that Kim regained her form and continued to get higher GOE. There was absolutely no possibility of Kostner winning at Worlds and it was a miracle she came 2nd. She was gifted with a personal best in a FS with a pop and <<fall, though I do agree that she could have surpassed 140 points in her FS with a clean skate... however, when compared to Kim, neither Kostner nor anyone in the rest of the field would have stood a chance. The fact that Asada needs a 3A to keep up with Kim just goes to show how far ahead of the field she is. I would love for Mao to do an 8 triple FS in Sochi, but that is very unlikely.

I wouldn't hold it against Kostner for faltering and finishing a distant 2nd at Worlds... I think even at her best she could have come no less than 5 points of Kim's total score (21 points is a lot of ground to make up). Also we need to bear in mind that Kim's technical content - even without the 2A-3T - is far greater than Kostner's and this is only amplified by GOE.

My point is Kostner's chances to beat a clean Kim were higher than they ever were, or probably ever will be again, at Worlds this year. She still might well not have done it like you said, but keep in mind she had 3 major mistakes over the 2 programs and only lost by 18 points so not impossible, and had she been the short program leader and done a clean long the whole dynamic of the judging might have changed. I am not saying Kostner for sure would have won Worlds even going clean, but it was her best chance ever of beating a clean Kim. If in your estimation she couldnt do it at Worlds this year, that just makes it all the more certain she never will beat a clean Kim in the future, as it will be that much harder to do next year than this year.

 

[sky_fly20]

My point is Kostner's chances to beat a clean Kim were higher than they ever were, or probably ever will be again, at Worlds this year. She still might well not have done it like you said, but keep in mind she had 3 major mistakes over the 2 programs and only lost by 18 points so not impossible, and had she been the short program leader and done a clean long the whole dynamic of the judging might have changed. I am not saying Kostner for sure would have won Worlds even going clean, but it was her best chance ever of beating a clean Kim. If in your estimation she couldnt do it at Worlds this year, that just makes it all the more certain she never will beat a clean Kim in the future, as it will be that much harder to do next year than this year.

and her mistakes more importantly aren't that disastrous as the last few years
lets hope Carolina holds up for this season and the Olympics

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Sorry, when was the last time Kostner actually executed (or even rotated) that extra 7th triple in the LP?

The point though is still that you said before "If both skate cleany, Yuna will still win due to greater difficulty". And this is what the BV comparison is supossed to tell you isn't true - if you started by talking about both being cleanly, than justifying your assumption of Yuna having far greater difficulty by saying Caro won't skate cleanly doesn't work.
If Caro managed to skate cleanly, Yuna would not win due to "far greater difficulty". Yuna would be ahead, but just slightly, and that one point in BV doesn't mean much when both skaters are able to get such huge numbers on +GOE and PCS. If Caro won't skate cleanly, but Yuna does, of course it's Yunas win, no need to discuss that at all.

 

[pangtongfan]

One point in base value behind is still big in the sense that I dont think anyone will beat Kim on GOE or PCS next season if she is clean. Kostner might get close, but she wont be ahead on those. So unless she has a higher base value (and she doesnt) she isnt going to win if both skate cleanly. Like I already said this year was her best shot at that, and to keep some more momentum in her favor if she had, but now that Kim is World Champion again it isnt happening.

The only one who "might" have a chance against Kim if both skate cleanly next season is Asada due to her insanely high base value. Even then I am not entirely sure as Asada would receive so much lower GOE and PCS than both Kim and Kostner at this point, that even a clean Mao wouldnt be certain to come out ahead, and besides 2 or 3 mistakes is a "great" skate for her realistically with what she is attempting, and a clean skate with what she is attempting would be akin to winning a lottery. That said she is the only possability at this point.

I wont even get into any laughable suggestion some are sure to attempt of a clean Gold or clean Sotnikova beating a clean Kim, and will let the mentally insane handle that.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

One point in base value behind is still big in the sense that I dont think anyone will beat Kim on GOE or PCS next season if she is clean. Kostner might get close, but she wont be ahead on those. So unless she has a higher base value (and she doesnt) she isnt going to win if both skate cleanly.

I agree with the 2nd part (Yuna wins if both are clean) but I think Caro can beat Yuna on PCS. Caro virtually never skates a clean LP. If she did, I think her PCS would be through the roof because it would be so unexpected.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Anything is possible but unlikely she will win.

 

[FlattFan]

If Carolina skates cleanly, her PCS will be a few points higher than Kim's. I can guarantee it.

 

[pangtongfan]

If Carolina skates cleanly, her PCS will be a few points higher than Kim's. I can guarantee it.

Coming from you that is practically a guarantee the reverse will be true. I dont think I have ever seen you be right on anything in your life.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I actually agree with FlattFan as that being a possibility. With a fall in her SP she got higher PCS than Kim with a clean SP, so anything's possible.