Can Michelle Get Back On the Podium?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

No problem SlutskayaFan. Everyone has their own tastes.


Harrah - I think what you are saying in your last paragraph is that Kwan should not only skate the GPs but should do one Asian and one European GP and forget the NorthAmerican GPs.

I agree!!

Joe

 

[hockeyfan228]

But was it all about jump under 6.0? Who landed most jumps, 3/3 got big prop in marks included the 2nd mark? Even under COP, jumps earned much more points than spins or any other elements.

No, it depended on the skater. When the judges wanted to award presentation over technical, they raised the second mark, even when the jumps weren't as strong or weren't as difficult. Cases in point: Cohen's last two short programs, where in Dortmund, she had an obvious flutz and not the same jump content as Kostner nor the same jump quality as Sebestyen, who also had very strong spins, and in Moscow, where she had a flutz (properly deducted), several bobbles, and was not as completely "on" as she was in Dortmund.

And further more, there were other ladies in the same competetion, especially the top ladies. If you were talking about judging, placement, etc., then you can't just isolate Kwan alone, she was not competing to herself in these competetions.

Fine, then I'll go over the top skaters in detail, acknowledging that "robbed" and "was robbed" are actually what the judges do, and to attribute them to skaters is a figure of speech.

Since being robbed means that the skaters ahead of Kwan actually skated worse and to rob means the skaters below Kwan actually skated better,

2004 Dortmund:

a. In the qualis, she was robbed by no one -- Arakawa was dominant and Ando was loose in the QR, while Kwan didn't have her feet under her, which affected the depth of her edges and overall control. (Kwan said the ice was too hard, which was a general complaint in that quali group.) Kwan robbed Poykio, Volchkova, and possibly Kostner, who had superior speed and flow. (Slutskaya also robbed Kostner and Volchkova, but she didn't place higher than Kwan.)

b. In the SP, she was robbed of one spot by Arakawa (2 underrotated jumps), but robbed Kostner and Sebestyen.

c. In the LP, she robbed four first place ordinals from the vastly superior Arakawa.

Kostner and Ando robbed a bunch of skaters in their LP (Sebestyen, Poykio, Rochette, Suguri among them), but not Kwan. Kostner would not have been seeded had she placed correctly in the LP; Suguri would have. Overall, I think that Kwan should have come in 4th last year (5/5/2) under Arakawa (1/6/1), Cohen (1/3/3), and Sebestyen (3/2/4).


2005 Moscow

a. In the qualis, she may have robbed Liashenko, but the groups for the SP wouldn't have changed and the point difference after factoring (25%) still would have been less than one point.

b. In the SP, she robbed Arakawa and Sokolova bigtime in PCS. Spartacus was fine -- not as good as at Nationals, but fine -- while the line and flow in Madama Butterfly was terrific and Sokolova was amazing in Don Quixote, and she also had the best 3Lz of the competition. (ES was horribly overrated in PCS in the quali/LP; it was a terribly choreographed program, and ES doesn't do tragedy.) She was robbed by Slutskaya for a couple of points, as were Cohen and Kostner, as the deduction for the travel on the combo spin wasn't big enough (according to the documentation), she received +GOE on another spin in which she had significant travels, and she received +GOE on the 3F, before which there was a significant break before the jump. Not that I think this was right; however, the SP scores would have been very close, and Slutskaya still would have had a lead going into the LP.

I don't think she was robbed by Cohen, because Cohen's spins were much better than Kwan's and two were harder, and that made up for the small bobbles. (SC received the deduction on the flutz, getting a 0 for the element, the max allowed for a flawed element.) It also had a "grabbing" quality that Spartacus, for all its strengths, didn't have. I agree with those who think Spartacus should have been Kwan's LP. It flowed and built like a LP.

c. In the LP, she couldn't hold a candle to Slutskaya or to Cohen, despite Slutskaya's 0 points on the third 3Lo or Cohen's mistakes. Arguably, she robbed Kostner in the LP -- CK actually had exceptional choreography in her program and skated to music that moved, not to a deliberate musical depiction of a factory -- but luckily the outcome was correct. She also robbed Suguri in PCS -- another skater with choreography -- although, overall, it wouldn't have made up for Suguri's SP deficit.

For all the talk about her coming in 3rd in the SP and LP, Kwan was .40 away from 4th in the SP, and .69 away from 4th in the LP, not exactly showing dominance over Kostner in either program. While I could say that likewise, Kostner didn't show dominance over Kwan, any benefit of the doubt likely went to Kwan, when it wasn't a decision between Kwan and either Slutskaya or Cohen.

I think Kwan's 4th place in Moscow was deserved, because she skated consistently, unlike Arakawa, Suguri, or Ando.

 

[mzheng]

hockeyfan228, that's all your opion. I'm going by Euro Sport's comments they are on site comments as well (KC was not robbed by MK at LP). But at least it proved my point that Kwan was not the only one got the benefit from the judges.

And I never said Kwan should place ahead of Kostner. You can check out my post in Worlds thread.

As for your point c. of 2004 worlds. If you have to go that detail to each judge's level than I think you should go more detail rob or be robbed for every compare in your posts.

 

[hockeyfan228]

As for your point c. of 2004 worlds. If you have to go that detail to each judge's level than I think you should go more detail rob or be robbed for every compare in your posts.

I've already done that before, and I don't plan to retype it again.

 

[chuckm]

It's useless to say that Kwan should do one GP in Asia and one in Europe. First of all, the US will choose Kwan for Skate America. That is a given. After that, Kwan, as a seeded skater, has NO say over where she will skate a second event. It depends on (a) which host country has first choice and (b) which (and if) a host country chooses her. Canada is unlikely to choose Kwan because she backed out last season. The other hosts may not want to pick her for the same reason. So it may be that she goes to the host with the last choice, by default. There's no way of knowing who that will be.

Finally, since Kwan has not said she wants to skate in Torino, we don't even know if she will do the GP.

 

[Mathman]

The question is though, will the U.S media see her as the underdog given her iconic status? Somehow I have my doubts, and they might still put pressure on her as the so-called overwhelming favorite for the gold, in which case would the pressure really decipitate at all?

I love this board! I am going to send in "decipitate" to Merriam-Webster for their next edition.

But that's a good point. Favorite or not, win or lose, Michelle will be the big Olympic story in the U.S. media. I do think, though, that this kind of attention and pressure is easy for Michelle to handle. The pressure she puts on herself might be harder for her to cope with.

About whether skaters such as Michelle and Irina have received "gifts" from various judging panels over the years, I do think the judges tend to reward the winners with inflated scores in cases where there is a clear victor anyway. As Slute-fan points out, at 2002 Worlds the free skate could have gone either way -- both Irina and Michelle skated clean 6-triple programs with power and elegance. But because of the SP placements Irina would have won anyway no matter what Michelle did, so why not give Irina a pat on the back?

In 2005 Europeans, yes, the first half of Irina's free skate was dreadful. But no one else stepped up to their opportunity and Irina was still the clear winner overall, so there was no reason not to gift her with a little bonus of appreciation. Sort of like giving Michelle 6.0's for a blah performance at 2005 U.S. Nationals. No one else was in the running for the gold medal at that point, so what's the harm?

Mathman

 

[slutskayafan21]

Am I the only one who vehemently disagrees with this? I agree that she choked, BUT Arakawa was basically untouchable that night. I really don't think anyone (maybe besides Kwan) could have beaten her that night. Even Cohen if she was clean and/or on.

Well I dont entirely agree as well. Arakawa's performance was wonderful, a fully deserving World Championship performance. I would have had no problem putting her above a clean Cohen or Kwan, without a triple-triple especially as neither had one planned. However I dont think the judges shared that view. Cohen took 3
judges from Arakawa, even with a tenative, timid, performance littered with minor errors and one major error. Kwan skated better than Cohen, but doubled her second triple lutz, did not try a triple-triple, and took 4 1st place votes anyway.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

In Dortmund, Arakawa opened up with a triple/triple/double. That got the audience in a wild state of mind for her (and I presume the judges). Her program continued to be faultless and her unique InaBauer got gasps from the audience (and I presume the judges). By the time Nessum Dorme came on, it was clear she would be the World Champion.

I don't remember if Cohen skated after her. If so it may have caused her to implode on her wonderful Swan Lake program.

Kwan did an excellent job with that horrible dark music. It's time for La Kwan to stop using these tunes which do not suit her style immediately. We have to wait until a Marshalls to see her skate well to them.

The triple/triple/double if done clean will win the Olys. It's the equivalent of the Men's quad and it happens to be a pretty move. Watch that Italian teenager in her home town in 2006!!

Joe

 

[Mathman]

The 1998 Rachmaninoff was one of my all time favorite short programs, but I don't think Lyra was a good Olympic program for her to compete with Tara's high energy because it relied on her expression, and at the Olympics when the pressure was on, the music did not help her at all. I think they should have done something forceful and exotic like Salome, or even reprised Salome. Frank and Lori were not acting in Michelle's best interest because they were living out their Janet Lynn fantasies with the "floating on a cloud" idea for Lyra. Michelle's style is very different from Janet Lynn, and it was shortsighted of them to make her try to recreate an outdated program.

That is a thought-provoking insight, Brad, and a point of view that had not occurred to me before. Maybe this sheds some light on Michelle's explanation three years later, that she "wanted to take control of her own skating."

So, does Aranjuez represent "Michelle's own skating?" Forget the angel floating on a cloud and go with skate, skate, skate, jump, skate, skate, skate, jump, footwork, split jump, ta da! Works for me.

MM

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Yeah Brad. Good post regarding the styles of MK and JL.

However, she did have a go with Sheherazade as a return to her Salome. Problem is, MK has trouble getting into the heart of the music. She worked hard on Salome but I don't think she did much with working on Sheherazade. She had no coach/no choreographer at the time.

The Carroll/Nicholls team saw the natural lyrical style she has (only Yuka Sato can compare) and I think MK wanted to go the other extreme, and show her bravura style. It's not that she can't do it, it's just that it takes longer for her to get. Tosca began to take life in Dortmund. Bolero not until Marschalls.

Unless she has a choreographer who will drill her, I would suggest that she go back to lyrical style which comes so natural to her.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

The triple/triple/double if done clean will win the Olys. It's the equivalent of the Men's quad and it happens to be a pretty move. Watch that Italian teenager in her home town in 2006!!

Joe

Oh I agree on all counts. Kostner is likely few peoples first pick for gold, but she has to be seen as a dark horse threat after this years Worlds, and with the home crowd, the triple/triple/double she can do, with another year of maturing, with her carefree attitude and confidence, she might just sneak in and take it all away from those veteran stars. The last few Olympics have been won by teen sensations. Who is the more likely champion if it is to come to that, Kostner, Phaneuf, or Ando? After this years Worlds I think most would have the same answer to that.

 

[brad640]

When it comes to lyrical skating, I will take Karen Kwan over Michelle Kwan. Karen skating to Lyra would have been great!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

OK Brad. I believe you but I have never seen Karen skate (was out of country for many years.)

By the way I approve of your podium picks. Three great and different skaters! Who could ask for anything more?

Joe

 

[brad640]

Thanks Joe. If I can find any videos of Karen I will post them here. She was a long, willowy skater similar to Lucinda Ruh (in style, not spining ability). I wish she could have stuck with skating because it was a big disappointment when she left the sport. She is still very popular in the skating community. Whenever you see her at an event, she is surrounded by entourage.

 

[mzheng]

I've already done that before, and I don't plan to retype it again.

Where did you do the comparision down to each judge level? If you did, I missed the thread.

 

[mzheng]

Thanks Joe. If I can find any videos of Karen I will post them here. She was a long, willowy skater similar to Lucinda Ruh (in style, not spining ability). I wish she could have stuck with skating because it was a big disappointment when she left the sport. She is still very popular in the skating community. Whenever you see her at an event, she is surrounded by entourage.

I would like to see it if you can find some old junior level competetion of Karen's. Perticula the Romio & Julie one. I have no idear which year (berfore my time of any interested in amature rank, not to mention junior level at the time). Just was told recently that this was a very moving program when Karen skated at regional or sectional, a lot of ppl around the rink watching were moved to tears, but Karen wasn't even medal at that competetion.

It really raise my curious about Karen's so called 'Natural Artistry' (by some fans). I only saw her competetion program once at 1996 Nationals(?), which was nice but not so impressive. According to Kwan's parents, between their two daughters they had never thought Michelle was the one to make IT. If anything they'd thought Karen was the one to make IT.

 

[emma]

I've never seen Karen Kwan skate....was out of the country in the mid-90's and missed tons of skating...anyway, but I too would love to see a vid of hers. thanks in advance to anyone who may have one and is willing to share.

 

[Mehdi]

... Kwan should not only skate the GPs but should do one Asian and one European GP and forget the NorthAmerican GPs.

Absolutely.
Plus if she skates in TEB it would be an opportunity to see her again

Long live the Kween !

 

[brad640]

According to Kwan's parents, between their two daughters they had never thought Michelle was the one to make IT. If anything they'd thought Karen was the one to make IT.

That is one thing that has always troubled me about Karen's departure. Was it really the Kwans who wanted to go for Michelle 100% or was it Frank, who coached both girls. Somehow, I think if Danny and Estalla thought both daughters had potential they would have found a way to make it work because they are both so devoted. I think Frank may have wanted to secure his position as MIchelle's coach and he didn't like having another skater requiring his resources, so Karen was the sacrificial lamb, much like Tim was booted for Evan's sake.

 

[mandykane21]

I remember Michelle talking about when she and Karen skated at the 96 Nationals. They both skated really well and she said that Karen was thrilled to have skated so well even though she placed 5th. She mentioned that that was one of the diffrences between them, Karen really wanted to just skate well and Michelle really wanted to win. Maybe it wasn't other people, maybe Karen stopped because she didn't want it as badly. I'm not totally sure, but I think it was in Michelle's book.