Comparing Men's Nationals Scores

[dorispulaski]

Blades, you are so generous.

I couldn't resist to make my wish. I wish Chan to win the Worlds. If skate god has time, give Abbott at least a 4CC medal.

Abbott didn't put quad in LP at the Nationals is a bit worrysome to me. Maybe he should go to Patrick's coach to get the tips on jumping quads.

Patrick's current coach is Christy Krall, in Colorado Springs.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Total scores of skaters is a gimmick set up by the ISU to make the Sport look more like other sports rather than a pagaent. I see some as unable to reach the last best score as much as I see new best scores. Those GoEs just don't score the same with different judges at different venues.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Patrick's current coach is Christy Krall, in Colorado Springs.

Yes, this year so far has proved that it's a wonderful choice of switch for Patrick Chan. Though I do still wish that Abbott remains with Yuka but I'm beginning to worry about his quad ability. Hope this worry will be proved unnecessary with more training next season.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Yes, this year so far has proved that it's a wonderful choice of switch for Patrick Chan.

I was very happy for Patrick when he changed coaches, howerver it came about. Nichol had been acting as a coach anyway and could take care of the presentation and choreography side while Krall was the jump specialist he needed and he has been very happy with her technology and program. Both women also have a more holistic program for him, taking into consideration all aspects of his life.

But I think one of the most important contributing factors to Patrick's stunning progress is also what sets Krall to be the opposite of Don Laws. She gets him all kinds of specialists as he needs, including Kathy Johnson the dancer who in turn induced inspiration and epiphany with Nureyev. This is one of the reasons I believed in Patrick's incredible potential when he was the favorite object of derision. What others saw as "inconsistency" I saw as progress. He had the techniques down and consistent in practice already and was learning to bring them to competition. I saw him conquering element by element during the first two competitions with multiple falls, as I explained in previous posts and knew it would all come together for him sooner than later. From his interviews and reports, I also know he looks for solutions and seeks help for each issue he has, whether technical or mental. Krall embraces and facilitates his search for mentors and insights. She has faith in him and seems to be always encouraging. I certainly don't see such qualities in all coaches, some of whom pririotize their own egos over their students' success.

Patrick Chan started out with a great coach (Osborne Colson) who totally believed in him, giving him all the important basics as a foundation so he could add skills easily later rather than trying to fast track to flamboyant jumps. With devoted and doting parents, supportive federation, and truly caring coaches, he is able to actualize his talents, hard work and ambitions. These are advantages not all competitve skaters enjoy.

 

[Jaana]

My guesslist for top 6 (in no particular order):

Chan
Takahashi
Oda
Kozuka
Joubert
Amodio

 

[Snoopy]

Oh, I forgot about this - I think I am more excited about this than worlds if Adam and Jeremy are in it.

 

[dorispulaski]

SP base scores, and TES

It always amuses me to look at base scores: those are the things that can be most compared between competitions.

Here's a list of top SP base scores for skaters. Europeans, GPF, and US, Canadian and JPN nationals were used too. If I had both a nationals and a GPF score, I used the higher score.:

SP

Oda
TES 48.06 (GPF) 40.78 edge call on 3lz
Base 41.50 (GPF)40.50 Jpn Nats

Bradley
TES 43.89
Base 39.40

Kozuka
TES 39.43 (GPF) 47.06 Jpn Nats
Base 36.40 (GPF) 37.50 Jpn Nats

Van der Perren
TES 39.65
Base 37.20

Gachinski
TES 39.00
Base 37.10

Hanyu
TES 42.24 edge call on 3F (Jpn Nats)
Base 36.50 (Jpn Nats)

Joubert
TES 34.90
Base 36.50

Amodio
TES 40.75
Base 36.10


Verner
TES 36.38
Base 36.00

Brezina
TES 39.64
Base 35.90

Contesti
TES 36.57
Base 35.50

Dornbush
TES 35.32
Base 35.50

Liebers
TES 35.31
Base 35.50

Takahashi
TES 40.57 (GPF)33.88 edge call on 3lz jpn Nationals
Base 35.20 (GPF)34.00 Jpn Nationals

Berntsson
TES 33.05
Base 35.10

Messing
TES 37.61
Base 35.00

Fernandez
TES 32.00
Base 34.70

Rippon
TES 32.76 (problems with both his 3Lz and 3A)
Base 34.60

Sawyer
TES 41.59
Base 33.90

Abbott
TES 38.57 (36.83 NHK)(39.07 CoR, 45,3lz and 2t UR)
Base 33.40 (36.10 NHK)(36.10 CoR)

Russell
TES 36.36
Base 32.80 (3F+3Lo)

Preaubert
TES 32.33
Base 32.80

Chan
TES 44.48 (43.77 at GPF) 4t ur at GPF
Base 32.60 (only a 2A) (38.30 at GPF)

Miner
TES 35.66
Base 32.40 (did a 2t instead of a 3t on his combo)

Mahbanoozadeh
TES 34.42
Base 31.20 (underrotated his 3Lz

What's clear here is that even though he skated it well, Abbott's SP base scores this year haven't been great. And Oda has been knocking the SP out of the rink, technically. Bradley's technical base in the SP has also been impressive.

 

[dorispulaski]

LP Base scores & TES

LP base scores, ordered by base score-again interesting as Abbott really hasn't managed a top notch base score all year in the LP. Chan & Kozuka are the technical class of the field.

Chan
TES 103.41 (Can Nationals) 86.94 (GPF)
Base 82.33 (Can Nationals) 78.22 (GPF)

Kozuka
TES 82.25 (GPF) 84.92 (Jpn Nats)
Base 76.46 (GPF) 4t ur 78.68 (Jpn Nats)

Bradley (US Nationals only)
TES 78.17 (step out on 2 4T's)
Base 78.64 (did not put 2T on one of the 4T's)

Joubert
TES 79.03 edge call on 3F
Base 76.48

Oda
TES 79.58 (GPF) (edge call on 3lz) 82.00 Jpn Nats
Base 75.33 (underrotated 4t) GPF 76.42 (Jpn Nats)

Dornbush
TES 83.27
Base 73.71

Menshov
TES 78.88
Base 73.27 (EUR)

Miner
TES 81.80
Base 73.17

Verner
TES 75.25 (Eur) 74.35 (edge call on 3f) (EUR) edge call both comps
Base 72.01 -67.54 (GPF)

Mahbanoozadeh
TES 77.40
Base 70.39

Van der Perren
TES 74.32
Base 69.21

Amodio
TES 72.89 (EUR) 70.40 (GPF) edge call on 3F both comps
Base 68.37 (EUR) 65.53 (GPF)

Rippon
TES 76.36
Base 67.96

Messing
TES 76.56
Base 72.66

Russell
TES 67.49
Base 67.83

Gachinski
TES 71.31
Base 67.80 (got SEQ calls on 2 combos)

Fernandez
TES 68.37
Base 67.73, ur 3S and 3t and 2t in combo

Takahashi
TES 58.20 (GPF) very UR 4F, very UR 3t on combo, edge call on 3lz, 76.91 (Jpn Nats)
Base 59.07, 67.45 (JPN Nats)

Liebers
TES 63.47 (edge call on 3F)
Base 66.96

Sawyer
TES 75.09
Base 66.23 (UR a 3F)

Preaubert
TES 67.46 edge call on the lutz
Base 65.93

Hanyu
TES 70.02 edge call on 3F (Jpn Nats)
Base 65.72 (Jpn Nats)

Abbott
TES 66.91 (67.15 nhk) 64.25 CoR
Base 61 (underrotated 3Lz, slightly UR 2T in a combo), no 3T on the lz combo) (61.92 nhk) (67.94 CoR)

Contesti
TES 61.60
Base 60.51

Brezina (Europeans Only)
TES 58.42
Base 59.23 (didn't do the 3T in his 3F combo)

 

[Bluebonnet]

Interesting sets of numbers! Thanks, Doris!

Bradley's base values were indeed impressive. The question is, "Can he keep it next month?" Jeremy has really been hurt by not having a quad. Joubert has usually had high base value skating. Oda, Chan, and Kozuka are the solid ones. Takahashi's base value was a shock to me. Van der Perren was amazing (though I've never liked him nor his skeleton).

 

[ivy]

I always enjoy some good number crunching. Also interesting to me to see who was really able to up their scores in GoE. Chan - 20+pts! Dornbush, Rippon and Miner all have respectable GoEs in the LP- suppose that's partly score inflation at Nat'ls but still glad to see it!

 

[wallylutz]

Yes, this year so far has proved that it's a wonderful choice of switch for Patrick Chan. Though I do still wish that Abbott remains with Yuka but I'm beginning to worry about his quad ability. Hope this worry will be proved unnecessary with more training next season.

Yuka said she loves skating but hate jumping. She seems to guide her skaters to be more lyrical and improve their SS and the overall presentations, the things she was known for as a skater. But when it comes to jumps, I think her skaters may need additional guidance. Though I believe Abbott's problems are his own and nothing to do with his coach.

 

[wallylutz]

Chan
TES 44.48 (43.77 at GPF) 4t ur at GPF
Base 32.60 (only a 2A) (38.30 at GPF)

Chan's SP Base Score at CAN Nationals = 35.6, not 32.6. You may wish to correct the error in the list and update accordingly.

 

[wallylutz]

I always enjoy some good number crunching. Also interesting to me to see who was really able to up their scores in GoE. Chan - 20+pts! Dornbush, Rippon and Miner all have respectable GoEs in the LP- suppose that's partly score inflation at Nat'ls but still glad to see it!

Chan did two Quads in the LP vs. one at the GPF and he didn't skate clean in Beijing. Yet, the judges still gave him about 10 points in GOE. If he skates the way he did in Victoria and put that in front of ISU judges, you can expect less GOE inflation but the TES would end up being pretty close to 100 regardless due to higher BV and clean execution vs. the performance he did at the GPF.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Chan's highest SP BV is actually at COR.

Re mark inflation for Chan's Nat LP, it should be noted that each GOE point for a high value element is worth more in marks than for a low value element. Considering all the exceptionally high value elements in Chan's LP, yes GOE points are naturally "inflated" even without any intention on the judges' part. If he skates as well at Worlds, his TES will not likely be deflated from NAT scores greatly.

Jeremy forfeited his spin at NHK, and then he underperformed in COR even though he rectified his spin. He therefore never got the BV as planned. If skated well, his LP's BV should be substantially higher.

Bradley, OTOH, probably would have his LP's BV quite a bit lower if skated internationally as at Nationals. The US Tech Panel was very generous with him.

I find, except for Skate Canada where placements were pretty much in line with the TES, PCS have been generally a much better indicator of most GP events' placements this season. Thus, Takahashi, Joubert, Vener, and Abbott all did better than their TES implied.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Bradley, OTOH, probably would have his LP's BV quite a bit lower if skated internationally as at Nationals. The US Tech Panel was very generous with him.

I thought so too.

Even though Base Value is the least subjective part in CoP scoring, it is not 100% objective.

 

[annamac]

Re mark inflation for Chan's Nat LP, it should be noted that each GOE point for a high value element is worth more in marks than for a low value element. Considering all the exceptionally high value elements in Chan's LP, yes GOE points are naturally "inflated" even without any intention on the judges' part. If he skates as well at Worlds, his TES will not likely be deflated from NAT scores greatly.

Not exactly. The GoE factoring for the high value jumps (3A and above) is 1.0 and for all other triples it is 0.7. Thus a +2 on a quad is worth 2.0 and a +2 on a 3T is worth 1.4 - there is a 0.6 difference but there are only 3 high value elements, and all skaters top skater attempt at least one 3A or quad, so at most a 1.2 difference in total GoE (Ok, 1.8 if Chan gets all +3s) from oter skaters without those high-value element.
As for steps and spins, the factor for all level and all type of spins is the same, also for all 1-3 level footwork.

Anna

 

[Violet Bliss]

^^^Ah, but the top skaters don't get the kind of GOE Chan gets on his quads. Look up the updated Quads Of The Seasons I compiled. Chan has gotten the highest marks for his 4Ts, followed by non-contending quad jumpers. Chan's quads score over a whole point over Takahashi's only successful quad. At this point, Chan's quads seem reliable and of high quality whereas Takahashi has had one successful fluke. Oda's one gorgeous and highest scoring quad combo seems more like a fluke as well. Thus on the highest scoring element, the quad, Chan receives more GOE points over his actual competitors, magnifying these high value GOE, or what many will call "inflation". Such "inflation" is significant when Chan earns +2 GOE on his quads while other podium contenders get mostly negative GOE with < and <<.

Chan's 3A, OTOH, is less reliable. But he seems to have gotten over the difficulty of doing it after a quad and is now doing just one in each program while adding a trusty quad. I haven't compliled how the top skaters score for 3A so I can't compare this element right now.

The reasons Chan's quads are dangerous and newsworthy are 1. they are additional arsenals over all his other high level elements and skills, and, 2. they are of very high quality when landed, which he has been doing in practice and now seems to have been able to do with the same consistency in competitions as well.

As for steps and spins, the factor for all level and all type of spins is the same, also for all 1-3 level footwork.

The mark equivalences of GOE points for the assigned level 1 footwork sequence are very high - same values as for quads and 3As. That's also where Chan tends to receive +3s, maximizing the "inflation" again and somewhat making up for the disadvantageous low BV.

The reason Chan can have such high TES is that he is able to perform the highest value elements, actually all elements in his programs, very well most of the times. When his performance is near flawless, the TES soars.

eta that Chan also has the stamina to execute his bonus added jumps well, earning GOE that less fit competitors may not. It all adds up.