Did Michelle wait too long?

[show 42]

Yep, what a washed up skater Michelle is........gosh, how did she ever manage to make it to the podium sooooooooooo many times I'll never know........

.......and correct me if I'm wrong, but an important factor for Sarah making it to the top of the podium wasn't just her triple-triples, (they were awesome I know), it was in fact the three ladies ahead of her who had subpar performances that allowed her to vault over their heads. If Michelle, Irina, and Sasha had skated clean programs, Sarah would not have had the gold.........42

 

[MidnightNess]

I'm not worried about Michelle. I think she knows what she needs to do. In regards to her marshalls and nationals performance, one has to remember she had a bad month in October with severe allergies; that definitely had to stifle any progress she had been making in the technical department.

 

[kyla2]

Michelle

I think some of Joesitz's points are well taken. She has to do a triple-triple to remain competitive and yes, it's possbile she could be bumped off the podium altogether under this new system. I REALLY wished she had competed just once under this new system. But having said that, I think her Nationals program IS competitive as long as she adds in a triple-triple and makes it a 7 jump program. I would also love to see a lutz-loop instead of a lutz-toe. She is capable of doing all these things and doing them well. I also think she has been practicing these things and "saving" them for when she really needs them. Sasha and Shizuka have been having rough seasons and Irina usually starts to fade a little about now, so I would never count Michelle off of the top of the podium. Her consistency is one of her strongest points. But as Joesitz said, you can't count on one of the other skaters to fall, etc. so I hope she comes with the mindset to compete all out and not just to place in preparation for next year. I know she is tactically smarter at planning strategy than the average bear, so we shall see.

 

[nicole_l]

You can never count Michelle Kwan in, but then again, you can never count her out, either.

 

[R.D.]

Well, did MK wait too long?

IMO, it's a bit risky to make your debut at the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS under a NEW SYSTEM, but it's her choice. Besides, she already has five of these gold medals so what's another one mean to her? It's the Oly Gold she's after in the long run. Will she get it? Not at this rate, that's for sure.

 

[Ladskater]

Wait too long for what? Michelle will have no choice in the worlds as far as the judging system goes - ready or not she will be judged under the new COP system, just as every other skater will.

Skate Canada used the COP judging system this time around for the Canadian Nationals instead of the old 6.0 system. I was surprised the USFSA did not do the same for their Nationals. Michelle would have had a go at the new judging system on her own turf, before heading off to Moscow. That's kind of risky skating a new program under a new judging system at the Worlds. Wish her the best.

 

[RealtorGal]

The last 2 Oly games were won by ladies doing 1 or even 2 3/3 combos. The lady who will wear gold in 2006 will perform AT LEAST 1 3/3 (and it will be more difficult than a 3 toe/3 toe) if not 2. Of that you can be sure. :agree:

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

Praise to be, this post is not about her drinking milk or other who cares nitpicks.

I feel she just refused to get the message that 3x3s were essential. I mean there was a hint at the 98 Olys that the jumpin jack still to had do more jumps. True she had a broken toe at the time. But I presume that healed, and the 3tx3t should have been reinvented and become conistent by 02. but she ignored it and again the champion of that Oly had two 3x3s. She was spending too much time relishing her position as the 'best' skater in the US. Remember a 3tx3t is a basic jump now.

Joe

What the heck are you talking about? Michelle landed more 3/3s than most ladies seniors have, including Slutskaya. Let's not forget that she won 2 World Championships with 3/3s after 1998.
It seems that all she heard leading up to SLC was how important the 3/3 was and she was willing to sacrifice choreography for speed needed for the 3/3. IMO, her downfall was her thinking that a 3/3 was the only thing she needed to win.

If she had skated the same program that she had in Nagano, she would have won that night in SLC considering the way the other ladies skated that night. Heck, there is a strong argument that Kwan would have won if she had just landed the flip...even with the double footed triple toe in the beginning.

I believe that itis much more likely that Kwan's inconsistency with the 3/3 was due to physical setbacks rather than her just being lazy and not listening to the millions of people telling her that she needed a 3/3.

Joe you make it sound like having a consistent 3/3 is such an easy thing to have.

 

[Miriam Boo]

Sasha will be doing exactly the same thing. In fact, she's already said she's going to place all her jumps in the first half of the program to avoid falls that seem to come after the 2-minute mark. That's what she did when she trained under Nicks in the 2001-2002 season.

Michelle had already said at Marshalls on December 3 that the program she'd be skating at Nationals was not the program she'd be doing at Worlds. I wouldn't attempt to second-guess Kwan. What we see at Worlds is anyone's guess. I just hope "Bolero" won't be her Olympic program.

This is all talk in regard to Michelle & Sasha's alleged COP friendly programs. Look for their programs at Worlds to be identical or virtually indistinguishable from their programs at U.S. Nats. Sasha did actually change her long program at Worlds last year, and it hurt her. Only a fool would significantly change her programs so late in the season. You can tune up & add small variation to your programs at this point, but any significant change will be detrimental to their success at Worlds.

 

[Mathman]

Only a fool would significantly change her programs so late in the season. You can tune up & add small variation to your programs at this point, but any significant change will be detrimental to their success at Worlds.

That was the very question that I intended to raise on this thread.

Several posters have mentioned Michelle's/Aruturian's supposed strategy of doing only the bare minimum required to squeak by, then suddenly and dramatically "upping the ante" at Worlds.

I can't wait to find out!

Mathman

 

[brad640]

Sarah and Robin successfully upped the ante between nationals and Olympics and that was a shorter time frame than nationals-worlds so it is possible to have a dramatically different program that works. This just doesn't seem to be Michelle's style - she is usually slow and steady. I will be shocked if she has a dazzling new Bolero for worlds, but I will also be shocked if she finishes off the podium. She has shown that even when she makes radical changes like dumping Frank before 2002 Olympics that she is still the one to beat in every competition and even with mistakes she can still medal.

 

[ChiSk8Fan]

Master Plan

One of the aspects of interest in regard to Michelle Kwan is her longevity and career. We are all able to know more about her than past champions who were dominant for 5+ years in the sport. Looking back, we can see her decisions and choices and an overall plan. It makes sense that she has an overall plan she and her coach believe will be successful in obtaining the one thing she has yet to win. The 2005 World Championships is important, but it is the beginning of the Olympic year, and it is not crucial for her to win it. It will or can be a set up the next 11 months.

Did she wait too long? Yes and no. Yes if she plans to win the 2005 World Championships, no if she plans to compete for Olympic Gold.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

One has to remember that the judges are humans and have feelings. A program without 3x3s even if it excells in other areas will set a mood in the judges minds. Subjectivity has not yet been ruled out of figure skating or other single type sports. We can not predict how they will react to a no 3x3 program. I think they will just make less plusses for other elements. 3x3s are difficult tricks and the judges are going reward those skaters somehow for executing them.

VietTerif - I can not remember MK doing so many 3x3s in competitions as much as I remember IS. Indeed, physical problems prevent 3x3s and other elements but judges have to judge what they see only. A 3x3 must be consistent 8 out of 10 times, and it is difficult as per my paragraph above.

42 - She's not washed up (I know what you mean ). I am hoping as others are that there is real strategy there in the Nats routine to just add on another air turn in the combo, and if possible change the second 3t to a 3r. It's not a question of "if she needs it", it's a question of superiority. She is competing against some tough Ladies.

Joe

 

[Petlover]

Just a thought - wouldn't it be cool if Michelle brought back a rechoreographed Salome program for the Olympic year? That was her first program that showed her new maturity, and it would be neat to be her last (maybe, who knows!) adult Olympic program.

What do you think?

 

[soogar]

Looking at Poykio's success in the GP, I don't think MK is going to have a hard time with COP. Poykio skates exactly like MK (even copying a lot of MK's signature moves) and has the same bodytype as MK and she did well in the GP despite not performing her elements as well as MK. I don't really think MK needs a 3-3 to make the podium at Worlds or even win the Olympics. The judges like her skating and MK does what she does very well. She's not a spectacular skater, but she is consistent. I think her consistency is enough to put a lot of pressure on Irina (and Irina isn't going to do that well this worlds anyway, her skating is getting worse) and Shizuka.

 

[Doggygirl]

Interesting question Mathman...

While Michelle has proven herself a worthy and smart competitor, I have wondered about this question all season. I see the following risks with Michelle's strategy:

1) Competing under COP for the first time at World's.
2) Skating to Bolero - not an easy single skating piece - the music doesn't hold up the skater, the skater has to hold up the music. Just one more challenge.
3) Introducing a significantly upgraded LP at World's (going by Michelle's statements about it)
4) The issue of 3/3's is a risk factor too - possibly introducing that back in at World's after not doing one at nats (no recent history of consistency).

If anyone is up to the challenge, it's Michelle. Rewards usually involve risks. I hope it all works out for a great performance.

DG

 

[alain707]

Why should a skater be penalized if she doesn't do all the jumps? They're already getting fewer triples in by leaving one out. I'd rather see skaters do what they can rather than put a triple loop in if their bodies can't handle it. Bebe is leaving out the triple loop as well b/c it hurts her hip.

The point is that with CoP, a lady skater that does not have a 3-3 combo (or a 2A-3? combo) is not allowed to do more than 6 triples, because there are 7 jumping passes, and one of them must include an axel. She can then achieve the number 6 by doing 5 different triples and repeating one OR doing 4 different triples and repeating 2. For instance, MK left out the 3loop at Nationals, as Bebe Liang did, and attempted 6 triples (for one thing they were not judged under CoP, but as far as jumps are concerned, their programs were formatted according to the new system). Actually, a skater will not be penalized for lack of variety. On the contrary, by repeating the Lutz and the Flip, and leaving out one of the lower scored jump, a skater can reach a higher technical score !!!

 

[MidnightNess]

Isn't it possible, just possible that Kwan has had two COP friendly programs since last fall and has been practicing them since then? I think she's only shown bits and pieces of the already final product which I believe may have been completed as early as November: the harder fw, the spiral sequence, the turns here and there, the spins with change of edge. She may have been introducing these elements bit by bit to comfortable with them in front of the public rather than showing an entirely completed program as a whole. I mean look at Marshalls, she was slow with the Dean choreography and many of the spins. She was just test driving parts of the final product. Overall,it's still a risky thing for her to do this Worlds but I have a hunch, that she isn't just suddenly starting to go to work on upgrading it for Worlds but rather already HAS one ready complete with footwork, at least level 2 spins, level 3 spiral sequence, and so forth and just going to be practicing and polishing it more.

BTW, I think this is what mzheng is referring to when she said about kwan and arutinian having "things in the fridge ready to be cooked"

 

[curious]

Looking at Poykio's success in the GP, I don't think MK is going to have a hard time with COP. Poykio skates exactly like MK (even copying a lot of MK's signature moves) and has the same bodytype as MK and she did well in the GP despite not performing her elements as well as MK. I don't really think MK needs a 3-3 to make the podium at Worlds or even win the Olympics. The judges like her skating and MK does what she does very well. She's not a spectacular skater, but she is consistent. I think her consistency is enough to put a lot of pressure on Irina (and Irina isn't going to do that well this worlds anyway, her skating is getting worse) and Shizuka.

you are hoping that irina does not do well but she will. she is skating better than anyone whether some people like it or not she is doing great under cop and I can't think of anyone winning at worlds than her. michell will be lucky to be on the podium if she repeats her nats performance in moscow.

 

[MidnightNess]

you are hoping that irina does not do well but she will. she is skating better than anyone whether some people like it or not she is doing great under cop and I can't think of anyone winning at worlds than her. michell will be lucky to be on the podium if she repeats her nats performance in moscow

sounds like soogar isn't the only one with some wishful thinking