We're assuming that IS will do as well as she has all season. People have off nights. They falter under pressure. Yes, Irina is having a great season, but that does not make her unbeatable right now. Any one of the top ladies could have a good showing and win.
Did Michelle wait too long?
- Thread starter Mathman
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We're assuming that IS will do as well as she has all season. People have off nights. They falter under pressure. Yes, Irina is having a great season, but that does not make her unbeatable right now. Any one of the top ladies could have a good showing and win.
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2003
curious said:you are hoping that irina does not do well but she will. she is skating better than anyone whether some people like it or not she is doing great under cop and I can't think of anyone winning at worlds than her. michell will be lucky to be on the podium if she repeats her nats performance in moscow.
Except that Irina just handed in the same technical performance at Russian Nationals as Michelle did at U.S. Nationals. 5 triples, no 3/3. And let's not forget that Irina has an on-going medical condition. Hopefully she hasn't peaked too early. She had home court advantage at Worlds, but that too comes with it's own unique pressure. Unlike many people, I don't think this is going to be a cakewalk for Irina. I think she has an advantage, but not a very big one.
curious said:you are hoping that irina does not do well but she will. she is skating better than anyone whether some people like it or not she is doing great under cop and I can't think of anyone winning at worlds than her. michell will be lucky to be on the podium if she repeats her nats performance in moscow.
and you are assuming that michelle will skate the same program in the same way she did at nationals for worlds. let's get real here please. what we see at worlds i think will be if not a little different then a little from nationals. michelle is fully capable of a 3/3. she's shown this in the past and i think she's fully aware as her coach and everyone else is that she needs them and therefore has been practicing them. i can see her reasoning in not putting one in nationals if she didn't need them, considering there were no other high caliber ladies competitor doing them. worlds is a different story. i'm in the same camp as others in thinking that she hasn't shown us her big guns yet. irina definitely does have the advantage but i think being the favorite and skating in her home country is going to put a lot of pressure on her. to therefore say she's unbeatable is an erronous statement and assumption to make.
as for michelle's bolero, i'm hoping she's not going to use it for the olympics. i don't love it but i don't hate it either. same with her Rach.
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Irina and Michelle
I think Irina and Michelle will be the two fighting for the top position on the podium. Although Shizuka can't be counted out, she isn't having a great year. Irina will be tough to beat. She is having the best year of her career and she is in tip top shape even with her illness, which is clearly well under control. Her jumps are there and her spin combinations are level three and well centered ,with great speed. Her spiral is a Bielman, a level three, which was one of her weakest points. Not any more. Her layback is better. In short, she is one heck of a skater. It is in her presentation marks that she may lose a little to Michelle, but then again maybe not, depending on how she sells it. Sasha has lost her jump confidence/consistency for some reason and I think because of this she will have a hard time landing on the podium. I don't think Joannie is competiive for the top two spots yet. Maybe third. I think Michelle will tweak her jump passes enough to be competitive for the top spot and I think she has already done so in practices. I don't see Michelle ever "planning" to place 2nd or 3rd. But I agree with Joesitz, the judges will find a way to place people where they want if they don't do a triple-triple in their program. It may not be as easy to do under CoP, but they will do it and they will be able to justify it. Michelle knows this for certain.
I think Irina and Michelle will be the two fighting for the top position on the podium. Although Shizuka can't be counted out, she isn't having a great year. Irina will be tough to beat. She is having the best year of her career and she is in tip top shape even with her illness, which is clearly well under control. Her jumps are there and her spin combinations are level three and well centered ,with great speed. Her spiral is a Bielman, a level three, which was one of her weakest points. Not any more. Her layback is better. In short, she is one heck of a skater. It is in her presentation marks that she may lose a little to Michelle, but then again maybe not, depending on how she sells it. Sasha has lost her jump confidence/consistency for some reason and I think because of this she will have a hard time landing on the podium. I don't think Joannie is competiive for the top two spots yet. Maybe third. I think Michelle will tweak her jump passes enough to be competitive for the top spot and I think she has already done so in practices. I don't see Michelle ever "planning" to place 2nd or 3rd. But I agree with Joesitz, the judges will find a way to place people where they want if they don't do a triple-triple in their program. It may not be as easy to do under CoP, but they will do it and they will be able to justify it. Michelle knows this for certain.
kyla2 said:
I agree that it's most likely going to be between Michelle and Irina. And I also agree that Michelle needs at least 1 3/3. She basically can't make any mistake and has to have enough technicality where the judges can't mark her down. She also should not downgrade her content and count on Irina to make mistakes either.
Irina and Michelle
I can't wait for worlds.
Irina is having the best season ever for her. She is so fit, jumps look tremendous, layback is better, spins re so fast, and a good program that suits her. I have slowly grown to appreciate her. Everything I didn't like about her skating has improved. I still love good line and posture which she doesn't have. And I find her footwork "bouncy" instead of smooth like...
Michele. Yes, she has her work cut out for her. Still, looking at the field, I feel sure she will be on the podium. ITA with those who say the judges can work the system to reward the skater who just does the best overall. COP is pressuring Michele, but she also has that great consistency on her side.
Finally, I must agree with the poster who said, who has landed more 3/3's than Michele? Clean, fully rotated 3/3'a please. I think Healther has done some kind of history of this - does anyone know the number? I am remembering the beautiful ones she landed at worlds LP in 2000 and 2001. Also note that in both of those years, her performance at nationals was good but not great, and then she went on to do fast and flawless programs at worlds. So I say, it's still open, and she has a chance.
Also true that COP is just made to reward Irina's skating. With the big life challenges she's had, it would be kind of nice for her to win. But I can't help it - still want the Kween on top.
I can't wait for worlds.
Irina is having the best season ever for her. She is so fit, jumps look tremendous, layback is better, spins re so fast, and a good program that suits her. I have slowly grown to appreciate her. Everything I didn't like about her skating has improved. I still love good line and posture which she doesn't have. And I find her footwork "bouncy" instead of smooth like...
Michele. Yes, she has her work cut out for her. Still, looking at the field, I feel sure she will be on the podium. ITA with those who say the judges can work the system to reward the skater who just does the best overall. COP is pressuring Michele, but she also has that great consistency on her side.
Finally, I must agree with the poster who said, who has landed more 3/3's than Michele? Clean, fully rotated 3/3'a please. I think Healther has done some kind of history of this - does anyone know the number? I am remembering the beautiful ones she landed at worlds LP in 2000 and 2001. Also note that in both of those years, her performance at nationals was good but not great, and then she went on to do fast and flawless programs at worlds. So I say, it's still open, and she has a chance.
Also true that COP is just made to reward Irina's skating. With the big life challenges she's had, it would be kind of nice for her to win. But I can't help it - still want the Kween on top.
curious said:you are hoping that irina does not do well but she will. she is skating better than anyone whether some people like it or not she is doing great under cop and I can't think of anyone winning at worlds than her. michell will be lucky to be on the podium if she repeats her nats performance in moscow.
I am so not hoping for Irina to not do well or MK to win. However I call it as I see it and Irina's skating has declined as the season has progressed. It would be wonderful if Irina can win Worlds in Moscow, however I really think Shizuka and Miki (as well as Sasha and MK) will make it very difficult for her. I post here often and I think everyone is aware that I am not enamored with MK or her skating. However MK is consistent and can count on landing 6 triples at worlds and looking good while doing it as well. While a clean Irina is way more impressive than MK in terms of speed, jumps and spins, more often than not she can get very sloppy. Even though this Bolero was a horrible empty program, at least MK landed her jumps and had neat, centered spins and an overall polished look. Poykio's scores were very good (even w/out landing all the elements) and she does not execute her elements anywhere near the way MK does and Poykio is an MK clone wannabe (she reveres Kwan in her Spotlight on Skating interview).
I didn't see Irina's RN program but her GP program was really sloppy. When Irina has trouble on her jumps, all of her other elements are affected as well such as her spins travel and her footwork becomes tentative.
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- Jan 20, 2004
Irina, has gone through so much the last couple of years. If she does win I will be happy for her. Although, some of you are right saying sometimes she gets sloppy. Irina, also telegraphs her jumps badly at times. She reminds me of Syria Bonaly.. Very powerful jumper, speed, but can get sloppy and telegraphs jumps. Also, Irina doubles jumps late in her LP. So it will be interesting what happens at Worlds. If Irina skates clean....yes, she will win. But a consistant, artistic, and clean MK or Sasha can beat her. Although, it will be a miracle when Sasha does a clean LP. If Sasha had all clean programs at Worlds she would be the definate winner. Anyhow, if either MK, Irina, or Arwakowa wins I will be a happy camper.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
According to Heather's jump statistics, Michelle has done a triple-triple in competition 11 times.kareliz said:
1995 Skate America
1996 GP Final
1997 GP final
1997 Worlds
1999 Skate America
1999 Nationals
2000 Worlds
2001 GP final
2001 Worlds qual.
2001 Worlds LP
2002 Worlds qual.
Mathman
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I hope all you posters are not looking towards the old "whole package" thing. It's there but it is within the CoP - not hidden but certainly in more detail than it ever was before.
In Dortmund, Sasha backed out of her LP (don't know why), Shizuka skated unusually good, but it was Michelle who won the Lp because she had the old whole package under the 6.0 system. Michelle Kwan, imo, is a beautiful skater and I put the emphasis on skater not on ballet or any other outside influence. She is unquestionably one of the most musical skaters and that is what the audience feels when she skates - and they would marvel at a bunny hop because of it.
However, having said that, I repeat, the CoP is going to really test her as the best competititve skater in the world. My money is on Irina.
Joe
In Dortmund, Sasha backed out of her LP (don't know why), Shizuka skated unusually good, but it was Michelle who won the Lp because she had the old whole package under the 6.0 system. Michelle Kwan, imo, is a beautiful skater and I put the emphasis on skater not on ballet or any other outside influence. She is unquestionably one of the most musical skaters and that is what the audience feels when she skates - and they would marvel at a bunny hop because of it.
However, having said that, I repeat, the CoP is going to really test her as the best competititve skater in the world. My money is on Irina.
Joe
Didn't Shizuka win LP at Worlds? I know it was close, but I thought Shiz won the LP?
I don't know why Irina is still trying for gold if she is so sick. I think it's great for her and her morale, but I hope she doesn't end up a World gold winner and then hospitalized for months afterwards. I know her doctor is probably warning her of the dangers. I hope she doesn't get sicker by refusing to listen to doctors and take care of her health.
I don't know why Irina is still trying for gold if she is so sick. I think it's great for her and her morale, but I hope she doesn't end up a World gold winner and then hospitalized for months afterwards. I know her doctor is probably warning her of the dangers. I hope she doesn't get sicker by refusing to listen to doctors and take care of her health.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
Arakawa won the LP 5/4. The podium would have been the same if Kwan had won the LP and Arakawa had come in second:
Actual:
Arakawa: 2.6
Cohen: 4.0
Kwan: 5.6
If Kwan had won LP:
Arakawa: 3.6
Cohen 4.0
Kwan: 4.6
Arakawa was 1st in the Quali (1*.4=.4), 2nd in SP (2*.6=1.2), and 1st in the LP (1*1=1).
Kwan was 3rd in the Quali (3*.4=1.2), 4th in the SP (4*.6=2.4), and 2nd in the LP (2*1=2).
Actual:
Arakawa: 2.6
Cohen: 4.0
Kwan: 5.6
If Kwan had won LP:
Arakawa: 3.6
Cohen 4.0
Kwan: 4.6
Arakawa was 1st in the Quali (1*.4=.4), 2nd in SP (2*.6=1.2), and 1st in the LP (1*1=1).
Kwan was 3rd in the Quali (3*.4=1.2), 4th in the SP (4*.6=2.4), and 2nd in the LP (2*1=2).
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Close enough. ya can't get much closer. Shiz also had a good whole package that afternoon.
Michelle sort of reminds me of Golfers...the most polite athletes in the world. But like Tiger, Phil, and Ernie....if you think she isn't there to win, you're liable to end up scoring somewhere behind her. :agree:
It must have been hard for her to skate last and know that if she stood up she would tie the record set by a venerated skating idol of most American skating coaches. No, she didn't set the house on fire like she did in Atlanta. Yes, she did have a lot of empty spaces in her program. Definitely, she needs to up the ante on her jumps, spins and footwork. All that being said, I think she's one of the smartest cookies on the ice and she (having won 5 world titles) knows what the stakes are and what she must bring to the ice to win. Will she win the World Championships? Who can say. I do know this, it won't be because she doesn't bring her "A" game to the rink.
It must have been hard for her to skate last and know that if she stood up she would tie the record set by a venerated skating idol of most American skating coaches. No, she didn't set the house on fire like she did in Atlanta. Yes, she did have a lot of empty spaces in her program. Definitely, she needs to up the ante on her jumps, spins and footwork. All that being said, I think she's one of the smartest cookies on the ice and she (having won 5 world titles) knows what the stakes are and what she must bring to the ice to win. Will she win the World Championships? Who can say. I do know this, it won't be because she doesn't bring her "A" game to the rink.
Michelle
I think some of you are selling Michelle's Bolero short as a program. It isn't half as empty as some of you think. Her spin combinations are more interesting and faster. Her spiral seemed to be held longer. Her layback is certainly better than it was. If she lands all her jumps along with a triple-triple (and I hope a lutz-loop) she is competitive with all of them out there because her presentation skills are the best out there. But I do think Irina is on a roll. On the other hand, Irina does decline as the season progresses. At least that is what she has done in the past. But this Worlds will be in Moscow and she will be psyched to do her best. I would not be devastated to see Irina win. She has had a rotten couple of years with her mother's significant health issues and her own health issues.
I think some of you are selling Michelle's Bolero short as a program. It isn't half as empty as some of you think. Her spin combinations are more interesting and faster. Her spiral seemed to be held longer. Her layback is certainly better than it was. If she lands all her jumps along with a triple-triple (and I hope a lutz-loop) she is competitive with all of them out there because her presentation skills are the best out there. But I do think Irina is on a roll. On the other hand, Irina does decline as the season progresses. At least that is what she has done in the past. But this Worlds will be in Moscow and she will be psyched to do her best. I would not be devastated to see Irina win. She has had a rotten couple of years with her mother's significant health issues and her own health issues.
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2004
Mathman, you beat me to it on Michelle's competition triple-triple statistics. I thought it was around 11.
To respond to your original question, IMO she hasn't waited too long. She'll be giving her first COP version of the program at her first COP competition. She has said several times that Bolero is a work in progress; plus there were the reports of her testing out the COP aspects of the program both with RA and CD and Lakernik (sp?). I think Michelle has always been true to her word, so I have no reason to doubt what she's said thus far.
I have thought for some time that she is on sort of a two-year plan. Last year she started by going to Arutunian to work on her jumps and I for one have seen improvements. Again, the reports we have received have her working on several triple-triples. This year she's adding the COP details and decided to really challenge herself by using Bolero and CD. By doing this IMO she has kept herself motivated and that's good.
I really don't think it's fair to say that Michelle has refused to get the message that triple-triples are essential. The statistics show she has done them in competition. I think for the most part she has competed intelligently where triple-triples are concerned, all the while keeping in mind her current and future health.
I've chosen to think of Bolero as her "senior thesis" if you will. She's decided to tackle this music, with the T&D legend behind it, while jumping into the new scoring system. IMO if she lays down the performance of it that she's been working towards at Worlds, she'll probably pick something else for next season, and in that case, I think she should, to keep herself motivated (that program would be her "doctoral dissertation", LOL). Or, if she feels Bolero is not quite there yet, she may keep it for another season. I'm going to reserve my decision on whether I really like the program until after I see the World's version.
IMO, the pressure of attempting to tie Maribel's record, plus using a 6.0 version of Bolero, caused the glitches in her performance at Nationals. You could tell she was dissapointed with it, but it was enough that night, and what an accomplishment, to tie that record!
I think she's set up nicely to debut her two COP programs at Worlds. Most of the pressure should be on Irina and Shizuka, she won't have the expectations of the home crowd weighing on her, and she should just go unleash those COP programs she's been keeping under wraps!
To respond to your original question, IMO she hasn't waited too long. She'll be giving her first COP version of the program at her first COP competition. She has said several times that Bolero is a work in progress; plus there were the reports of her testing out the COP aspects of the program both with RA and CD and Lakernik (sp?). I think Michelle has always been true to her word, so I have no reason to doubt what she's said thus far.
I have thought for some time that she is on sort of a two-year plan. Last year she started by going to Arutunian to work on her jumps and I for one have seen improvements. Again, the reports we have received have her working on several triple-triples. This year she's adding the COP details and decided to really challenge herself by using Bolero and CD. By doing this IMO she has kept herself motivated and that's good.
I really don't think it's fair to say that Michelle has refused to get the message that triple-triples are essential. The statistics show she has done them in competition. I think for the most part she has competed intelligently where triple-triples are concerned, all the while keeping in mind her current and future health.
I've chosen to think of Bolero as her "senior thesis" if you will. She's decided to tackle this music, with the T&D legend behind it, while jumping into the new scoring system. IMO if she lays down the performance of it that she's been working towards at Worlds, she'll probably pick something else for next season, and in that case, I think she should, to keep herself motivated (that program would be her "doctoral dissertation", LOL). Or, if she feels Bolero is not quite there yet, she may keep it for another season. I'm going to reserve my decision on whether I really like the program until after I see the World's version.
IMO, the pressure of attempting to tie Maribel's record, plus using a 6.0 version of Bolero, caused the glitches in her performance at Nationals. You could tell she was dissapointed with it, but it was enough that night, and what an accomplishment, to tie that record!
I think she's set up nicely to debut her two COP programs at Worlds. Most of the pressure should be on Irina and Shizuka, she won't have the expectations of the home crowd weighing on her, and she should just go unleash those COP programs she's been keeping under wraps!
Great post! LegalGirl82, well thought out.
Yes, I think it is really unfair to say that Kwan refuse to get the 3/3 messges. Last year between National and World she practice 3t/3t aggressively to the brink of breaking physically that she had to take out that 3t/3t. She knew that without 3/3 she weren't able to win, she diddn't win last worlds.
From what I heard Kawn (and RA) had those instinct and they were usually right. They do what they needed to win the competetion. And their judgement usually are right. I heard the rinkside rumors before both Campbell and National, and both results were what they had expected. Marshall is an exception, where both knew she was not ready, yet she won a Silver which surprised RA.
Coming to the worlds may be slightly different because the scale of the competition. But given Kwan's 11 years worlds experience, she knew what she dose. She is an extremly smart competetor and quick learner, RA calls her genius on ice. Was it Lori Nickle said in an interview that at one National Kwan put game face on for TWO weeks and she Nailed it?
Yes, I think it is really unfair to say that Kwan refuse to get the 3/3 messges. Last year between National and World she practice 3t/3t aggressively to the brink of breaking physically that she had to take out that 3t/3t. She knew that without 3/3 she weren't able to win, she diddn't win last worlds.
From what I heard Kawn (and RA) had those instinct and they were usually right. They do what they needed to win the competetion. And their judgement usually are right. I heard the rinkside rumors before both Campbell and National, and both results were what they had expected. Marshall is an exception, where both knew she was not ready, yet she won a Silver which surprised RA.
Coming to the worlds may be slightly different because the scale of the competition. But given Kwan's 11 years worlds experience, she knew what she dose. She is an extremly smart competetor and quick learner, RA calls her genius on ice. Was it Lori Nickle said in an interview that at one National Kwan put game face on for TWO weeks and she Nailed it?
- Joined
- Jul 27, 2003
Although COP makes this year somewhat different, this is is the same argument that accompanies every less-than-stellar Kwan Nationals outing (99-01). She is tenative...weak....stale....there is simply no way she could possibly get it all together for Worlds.....BLAH! I love it. 3/3 or not, she will be ready and she will make the podium. Heck, she may even win the whole thing! But, even if she doesn't, I have a feeling that preparing for Turin is the ultimate goal. Let us see how COP treats Michelle in Moscow....then perhaps this discussion will prove more relevant.
What most people who predict Michelle will be out of the podium under the COP have forgotten, is that Michelle is one of the best competitors any sport has known. A great competitor is one who is great at studying and strategizing what it takes to win. Why would Michelle turn up with a COP Bolero at 2005 Nats when team Kwan knew it was not necessary? And people would base on her 2005 Nats to surmise her failure at Worlds. It would surprise the hell out of me if team Kwan never do any number crunching to assess in what areas she is behind closest rivals such as Irina, Shizuka and Sasha under the COP. They certainly do and I'm sure they should realize it's not jumps and lack of 3/3 that Michelle is bettered. Pure jumpwise, Michelle can deliver 6 triples and if I am to bet on anyone to land that on any night, it's Michelle - it's probability (this is what bookmakers rely on to calculate the odds in any sport). It is the entrances to the jumps, spins and transitions that she has to really work on. And I'd be a fool to believe she would take this lightly.
Come Worlds, I believe Michelle would be totally ready with a COP Bolero. So in the end, it all boils down to who can deal with the pressure better and in this department, I'd bet on Michelle. In short, I put my money on Michelle to win it. I would love to see Irina take the title if Michelle fails. She deserves to be a multiple world champion.
Come Worlds, I believe Michelle would be totally ready with a COP Bolero. So in the end, it all boils down to who can deal with the pressure better and in this department, I'd bet on Michelle. In short, I put my money on Michelle to win it. I would love to see Irina take the title if Michelle fails. She deserves to be a multiple world champion.
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- Joined
- Jul 27, 2003
I think that Shizuka will be left off the World's podium.
My guess is that it will be Irina, Sasha and Michelle but I do not know the order. If pushed, I'd have to put my $$ on Irina.
I thought Michelle's spins were much slower than last year, when she made terrific improvement to them. Her spiral was nowhere near its usual level of excellence. Considering that she has competed in what, one competition before nationals? I don't see why so much still needs to be added to this Bolero program. Why couldn't this program be CoP ready by nationals? Were they pressed for time for some unknown reason? Too busy with other commitments? Photo shoots? Interviews? Travelling? Spending time with family? What???
Many people are calling this program empty. Well, I think that's a bit of an exaggeration, but it is nowhere near as impressive as other programs, such as last year's SP and LP.
My guess is that it will be Irina, Sasha and Michelle but I do not know the order. If pushed, I'd have to put my $$ on Irina.
I thought Michelle's spins were much slower than last year, when she made terrific improvement to them. Her spiral was nowhere near its usual level of excellence. Considering that she has competed in what, one competition before nationals? I don't see why so much still needs to be added to this Bolero program. Why couldn't this program be CoP ready by nationals? Were they pressed for time for some unknown reason? Too busy with other commitments? Photo shoots? Interviews? Travelling? Spending time with family? What???
Many people are calling this program empty. Well, I think that's a bit of an exaggeration, but it is nowhere near as impressive as other programs, such as last year's SP and LP.
