Based on GP performance, a lot more was expected of Arakawa, Phaneuf and Rochette (among women) and Joubert and Weir (among men) than they ended up delivering. (Kwan actually did better at Worlds than 5 of the 6 ladies who made it to the GP final). IMO, the importance of the GP lies in getting feedback on the program and (especially for MK) signaling to the judges the degree of the skater's intensity and seriousness.
Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?
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Even with this rink, she only has private ice time when RA coaching her. The rest of time she still has to practice with other skaters.jesslily said:
The bussiness of the rink come first.
Judges always like to see the "improving". I agree those who said, don't just bang out in GP this coming season, slowly steadyly build up from 4th place finish at last worlds, from113 points. show judges you are still improving...that's what judges like to see.
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In practice sessions, Michelle dressed very down-to-earth, just a pair of black pants and a huge sweatshirt. Her hair was just like in national or world practice sessions.
By the time we got to the rink it's the second half or last 15 minutes of the session and they were working on the edge and moves. On the other hand NNN was very fashionable, both on ice and off ice.
A good training facility which you feel at home and acturally own it, can really give you so much confidence and joy for the every hard work. For elite skaters, coaching, talent and motivation, and training facility could be equally important.
By the time we got to the rink it's the second half or last 15 minutes of the session and they were working on the edge and moves. On the other hand NNN was very fashionable, both on ice and off ice.
A good training facility which you feel at home and acturally own it, can really give you so much confidence and joy for the every hard work. For elite skaters, coaching, talent and motivation, and training facility could be equally important.
Michelle did share the session with few other kids while RA coaching her. I don't think practicing alone most of the time help any level of skaters. Michelle should spend part of her practice time with other skaters, young or "old". Sharing a relatively busy session help improve your reflection time and agility.
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- Dec 18, 2003
nymkfan51 said:
While I would love to see MK dominate the GP as Irina did during the 04/05 season, you are absolutely correct IMO. Prevailing it that particular arena does not guarantee anyone the sort of skate "on the night" that might be required for Oly Gold. I'm no odds maker, but I guess I was just responding to a sort of "odds" making type of question.
There is no doubt that the winners through the GP series next year have NO guarantees of winning Oly Gold, or even becoming "favorites." We can speculate all day about what MK, Irina, Shiz, Sasha, Miki, Fumie, Joannie, etc. might do in the GP, and it all might go a completely different direction once the Oly Ice is frozen. IMO, the GP is simply a prediction device and nothing more. Any skater can move up through it, down through it, up and down, or down and up, etc., and none of the GP stuff predicts with any decent odds what will happen "on the day/night" of the Olys.
All that being said, I think MK's boots have collected a bit of dust so to speak. Her personal comments about The New Judging System make me think she is a bit fearful of it. I hope she proves me wrong!
DG
Edited to correct very stupid typos. I'm willing to place a bet I did not catch them all.
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- Jul 27, 2003
Joesitz said:
I can't disagree more. I wouldn't call any performance of Bolero that Michelle did all year "excellent." I'd say her first outing showed promise, but the constant changing around and taking out the choreography made it get worse and worse in my opinion. You think she felt the program pretty well? Well, that's your opinion just as I have mine, but it doesn't mean the choreography was anything great.
For Michelle supposedly having worked with Lakernik on all the NJS details, I cannot fathom how she didn't know simple things such as she needed to hold her spirals for 3 seconds (and the spirals were choreographed at such a down point in the LP that the sequence had no magic for me). The program at Worlds, even in the free skate, was bland as ever. Her smile was an improvement from the qualifying, but the whole second to third minute of the program was the biggest snoozer of choreography I've ever seen her have.
I know I complain about Michelle a lot, but I really do like her and wish she would have put more of an effort into expanding v.1 of Bolero (which also needed major work, but still..) than readjusting everything and making it more of a disaster program.
Here's to hoping for big things from Tarasova and hopefully we see the full product.
The problem is you don't know what's the full product is. TT did choreography for MK all in private ice sessions (TT's precondition)....heard the program is very good, but again it is subjective. One mans medicine could be another man's poison. And since MK got the internet reputation to "tear down" the choreography...so she is the one to blame if the program is not liked.Tony Wheeler said:
btw, the way you talked about her worlds skating as if you were there. I know Joe was there in person.
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- Feb 5, 2004
Red Dog said:
Thanks for your kind words - i was trying to think of why else i like Kwan and Slutskaya over the other skaters and part of it is that they were both just starting out their senior careers when i started watching skating in 1995, they're both only a a year or two younger than me and as i'm grown up into an adult so have they...my interst in seeing them grow and imrpove has been because ever since i started watching skating they were there, no other skater has been the same and being in the UK the first time i ever saw cohen was '02 Olympics, and you know what, i loved her short program and was blown away, i then was lucky enough to see her live later that year and was dissapointed. It was the first time i've ever seen elite skaters live and got a real feel for what the difference between liev and tv skating is. Either way everyone's entitled to their opinion and allowed to dislike Kwan's skating. the poster who are capable of actually expressing why they dislike a particular skater is informative and makes and enjoyable read rather than a bash out of nowhere!
Red Dog said:
I too think this is the hardest year Kwan has had it for the Olympics, i have a serious doubts that she will even get on the podium let alone finish first, but both previous times she has gone in as a clear or joint favourite and has had the previous titles to back her up, this year is different - she goes in the underdog with people doubting her technical and now even her choreographic ability...you couldn't get a more different situation thatn the oter times...maybe that's what she needs to get her the gold?!!!
Ant
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- Feb 5, 2004
Red Dog said:
I agree with you to a certain extenet but i would put both Irina and Michelle in the same camp here - don't forget they've both been to the Olympics twice. Irina could have been on that podium in 1998 if she had not had a mistake on the combo in the short - she may not have had the goods to beat Michelle or Tara but she certainly had the potential to beat Lulu and Maria. I also don't really think that either of them (MIchelle and Irina that is) crumpled under the pressure in 1998 - Michelle put down two stunning peformances, performances that in any other year (IMO '02 included) would have won her the gold medal. People have spent every day since then saying she choked, she held back. I have only recently watched her nationals LP from that year and agree it was better than the olympic perfornace but a the Olympic one was not a bad program or a seriously (or even minorly) flawed program, it was a fantastic program that was beaten by an otherworldly performance by Tara.
Red Dog said:
I haven't seen her '05 nationals performance but basing my opinions on her worlds performance My doubts in Kwan don't lie in her ability to get a COP friendly program or trying o get higher level elements or inbetweens, for me its her having to get back what she has had for her entire career until a couple of seasons ago - consistency - its gone AWOL, she can't get regular 6 or 7 triple programs down anymore. She has to the the number one female skater in history with the most number of competitive LPs with 6 or 7 triples than any other Irina included. That is what has won her all of the titles she has (of course i'm oversimplifying to make the point
) and right now she's lost some of that...is it age? Is she burnt out from ten year at the top? Who knows. can she get that back for one more crucial season...we don't know and that's where the excitement comes in!Ant
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- Jul 11, 2003
Red Dog said:
As far as pressure is concerned, what is it about MK that you think she will be in such a bad state of mind at the Olys?
Irina is the odds-on-favorite at the moment, that would put pressure on anyone. She had trouble with it in SLC but that doesn't mean she will have it again in Torino. Kwan is in the best position of being the underdog and at the moment not expected to make the podium. For anyone, that's a load of pressure taken away.
All skaters will have 'butterflies' which will make any skater perform better or not at his/her best. It's not pressure, it's excitement. You are a sports enthusiast. Do you know how it feels to be at bat with bases loaded , 2 out and your double will win the game? Is it pressure or excitement?
I presume you were in Nagano and saw her skate first in which admittedly she used the wrong strategy of skating overly carefully yet still winning 3 judges! There was no pressure, just a stupid strategy.
In SLC the pressure was there for both IS and MK and with Sasha's expectation of pulling a Tara. Didn't happen, and the least expected competitor won the olys. That's the way it is in Icetown. :yes:
Your comment on 'playing it safe' is well taken as Plushenko said, the only two skaters he is worried about is Joubert and Lambiel because they take risks.
Joe
ITA Joe!
IMO Michelle will be mentally more ready and prepared at this Olympics, despite the fact that she is technically at more of a disadvantage than the last 2 olympics.
In Nagano she had no idea of what could go wrong. She was, I think, shell-shocked at skating so well and yet still not winning.
In SLC there were problems before she ever took the ice. That whole season was the most unhappy and unsettled that I have ever seen her.
This year, she seems very happy with everything in her life. She has cemented her place in FS history, whether she wins in Torino or not. She has a family that she loves dearly, and now, because of the new rink, she does not have to be separated from them for the next 8 months.
She has a coach who she seems to be very comfortable with.
She has other things besides skating, that she can focus some of her attention to ... creating a healthy balance IMO.
My feeling is there is nothing that could surprise her about this Olympics. She knows she is not the favorite. She knows the strengths of the ladies above her. She knows ANYTHING can happen, no matter how many triples you do in other competitions.
This will probably be her last competitive season (JMHO). She can go in there with nothing to lose, but instead, just the objective to make it a happy experience.
She knows that no matter where she ends up in the final standings, the sun will come up in the morning, and she will have a glorious career to look back on ... and wonderful opportunities for the future.
IMO Michelle will be mentally more ready and prepared at this Olympics, despite the fact that she is technically at more of a disadvantage than the last 2 olympics.
In Nagano she had no idea of what could go wrong. She was, I think, shell-shocked at skating so well and yet still not winning.
In SLC there were problems before she ever took the ice. That whole season was the most unhappy and unsettled that I have ever seen her.
This year, she seems very happy with everything in her life. She has cemented her place in FS history, whether she wins in Torino or not. She has a family that she loves dearly, and now, because of the new rink, she does not have to be separated from them for the next 8 months.
She has a coach who she seems to be very comfortable with.
She has other things besides skating, that she can focus some of her attention to ... creating a healthy balance IMO.
My feeling is there is nothing that could surprise her about this Olympics. She knows she is not the favorite. She knows the strengths of the ladies above her. She knows ANYTHING can happen, no matter how many triples you do in other competitions.
This will probably be her last competitive season (JMHO). She can go in there with nothing to lose, but instead, just the objective to make it a happy experience.
She knows that no matter where she ends up in the final standings, the sun will come up in the morning, and she will have a glorious career to look back on ... and wonderful opportunities for the future.
I think whether Michelle has a chance in Turino will depend in large part on her own motivation.
As nymkfan51 said in an earlier post, Michelle has already cemented her place in figure skating history, and "no matter where she ends up in the final standings, the sun will come up in the morning, and she will have a glorious career to look back on ... and wonderful opportunities for the future." Herein lies Michelle's dilemma.
It's interesting that people mentioned the Williams sisters earlier in this thread, because in some ways they are in a similar boat. In both cases, we have athletes who reached the pinnacle in their respective sports, at a time when income and opportunities for women athletes off the playing field are at an all-time high. Also, both Kwan and the Williams sisters are in their early- to mid-20's, a time, at least in my (past) experience, that is ripe for exploration and broadening of horizons. And for both, their longevity at the top of their sport has raised potential or actual health issues, causing them to cut back on their training and competitive schedules.
Venus seems to have found a solution to the above dilemmas, leading to her third Wimbledon title. In her interviews at Wimbledon, she also seemed very self-aware and clear about where her priorities lie. Michelle seems to exude a similar self-awareness and centeredness. Barring what the judges decide, I think that how well Michelle does in Turino is largely in her hands.
As nymkfan51 said in an earlier post, Michelle has already cemented her place in figure skating history, and "no matter where she ends up in the final standings, the sun will come up in the morning, and she will have a glorious career to look back on ... and wonderful opportunities for the future." Herein lies Michelle's dilemma.
It's interesting that people mentioned the Williams sisters earlier in this thread, because in some ways they are in a similar boat. In both cases, we have athletes who reached the pinnacle in their respective sports, at a time when income and opportunities for women athletes off the playing field are at an all-time high. Also, both Kwan and the Williams sisters are in their early- to mid-20's, a time, at least in my (past) experience, that is ripe for exploration and broadening of horizons. And for both, their longevity at the top of their sport has raised potential or actual health issues, causing them to cut back on their training and competitive schedules.
Venus seems to have found a solution to the above dilemmas, leading to her third Wimbledon title. In her interviews at Wimbledon, she also seemed very self-aware and clear about where her priorities lie. Michelle seems to exude a similar self-awareness and centeredness. Barring what the judges decide, I think that how well Michelle does in Turino is largely in her hands.
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- Aug 27, 2003
nymk, I like your take on the situation. I hope you're right that Michelle's new training environment will help her succeed this season. I would so much like to see her career end on a high note--with a brilliant performance at the Olympics.
I do think Michelle has a chance at winning the Olympics, but it's a longshot. She has so many areas to improve before next season--especially her consistency with the jumps. It gives me hope, though, to hear that she's training actively already and that Tarasova has choreographed her programs. I think the latter news, especially, is a good sign. If anyone knows how to win, it's Tarasova, and perhaps she can pass some of her magic to Michelle.
Despite all that, though, I agree with others that Irina is the overwhelming favorite at this point. I am generally not an Irina fan, but the fact is, she skated exceptionally well at Worlds last year (in the LP, anyway). When a skater wins Worlds so convincingly, I feel it creates an aura of invincibility that intimidates other skaters and impresses the judges, such that they're predisposed to hand out high marks to that particular skater. This aura or mystique, plus Irina's obvious political advantage with European judges and her natural abilities, are all combining to make her the overwhelming favorite IMO. My feeling is that it's going to take a) fairly large mistakes on Irina's part and b) an absolutely brilliant performance from another skater, in order for Irina to lose.
Of course both of those things--a brilliant skate from Michelle or someone else, a lackluster skate from Irina--could very well happen at the Olympics. That's what happened at Salt Lake City, after all. So I wouldn't rule Michelle out at this point, I just think she's a long shot.
I do think Michelle has a chance at winning the Olympics, but it's a longshot. She has so many areas to improve before next season--especially her consistency with the jumps. It gives me hope, though, to hear that she's training actively already and that Tarasova has choreographed her programs. I think the latter news, especially, is a good sign. If anyone knows how to win, it's Tarasova, and perhaps she can pass some of her magic to Michelle.
Despite all that, though, I agree with others that Irina is the overwhelming favorite at this point. I am generally not an Irina fan, but the fact is, she skated exceptionally well at Worlds last year (in the LP, anyway). When a skater wins Worlds so convincingly, I feel it creates an aura of invincibility that intimidates other skaters and impresses the judges, such that they're predisposed to hand out high marks to that particular skater. This aura or mystique, plus Irina's obvious political advantage with European judges and her natural abilities, are all combining to make her the overwhelming favorite IMO. My feeling is that it's going to take a) fairly large mistakes on Irina's part and b) an absolutely brilliant performance from another skater, in order for Irina to lose.
Of course both of those things--a brilliant skate from Michelle or someone else, a lackluster skate from Irina--could very well happen at the Olympics. That's what happened at Salt Lake City, after all. So I wouldn't rule Michelle out at this point, I just think she's a long shot.
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- Jun 21, 2003
I wish I'd said that!antmanb said:
Which skating magazine did you say you write for?That was also a nice commentary on Irina's skating. As for Sasha, I think you might like her skating better if you saw her in a non-competitive performance. Her Eliza Dolittle routine that she did on the Champions on Ice was totally charming. (It did not look like a waterbug skittering across the surface of a pond, LOL.) Her Hernando's Hideaway was also full of personality.
BTW, according to Heather's jump statistics, Michelle has delivered 11 seven triple performances in major competitons in her career, and also 11 triple-triples (the last in the qualifying round in 2002 Worlds).
Mathman
EricAba ... I do understand what you are saying, and agree to a certain extent. Clearly, how Michelle chooses to compete this season will have a lot to do (most likely) with how she fares in Torino. For me though, there still is that question of whether her body will cooperate accordingly. She has not elaborated on this, but we have heard in the past few years about nagging hip and back issues. I "think" that is why she dropped out of SA last year.
I am very anxious to see her programs, and to see the level of her improvement in some specific areas. Until then, there is no way for me to truly evaluate what her chances will be.
In the final analysis, she could skate a great program ... chock full of jumps and choreography ... and still lose ... depending on what the other ladies do. So it isn't totally up to her.
I am very anxious to see her programs, and to see the level of her improvement in some specific areas. Until then, there is no way for me to truly evaluate what her chances will be.
In the final analysis, she could skate a great program ... chock full of jumps and choreography ... and still lose ... depending on what the other ladies do. So it isn't totally up to her.
antmanb said:
My bad, I had no idea that Irina was at the OLYs in 1998! I guess you learn something new every day...
IIRC, MK's performance was clean but I don't think it had that fire along with it. It might have been good enough to win in the past, but that is no longer the case. Playing it safe just does not seem to do the trick this time around, and I hope that the veterans remember that. When I think of the Olympics, I think of top-level performance- pushing the boundaries of sport further and further and setting new world records. I'm glad that in 98 and 02, the figure skaters who gave those kinds of performances were rewarded.
I haven't seen her '05 nationals performance but basing my opinions on her worlds performance My doubts in Kwan don't lie in her ability to get a COP friendly program or trying o get higher level elements or inbetweens, for me its her having to get back what she has had for her entire career until a couple of seasons ago - consistency - its gone AWOL, she can't get regular 6 or 7 triple programs down anymore. She has to the the number one female skater in history with the most number of competitive LPs with 6 or 7 triples than any other Irina included. That is what has won her all of the titles she has (of course i'm oversimplifying to make the point
There's something in what you say here... for example, many people say Cohen is SO inconsistent when I see that there are lots of other skaters that are much worse. At least she's maintaining her place in the World standings. And in the past four years, it's been 4-4-2-2. She didn't slip to 9th like Arakawa did. Back to the issue, Kwan might have been the definition of consistency back then, but now that's one thing she has really lost. I look at the past three years and her performances have been all over the map (which is normal, BTW). It's so rare to continuously give great performances like that. Now she doesn't have the consistency factor working for her anymore. It might be a matter of motivation or whatever, but if you think about it, it really isn't that big of a deal, because in the end, you can be as steady as ever, but it's all lost if you don't bring it all on the Big Night. If MK (or anyone else) can do that, everything else is moot.
IIRC, Cohen made that point about Arakawa's slip to 9th too.Red Dog said:
I guess you and Cohen think alike. 
But Arakawa won the big one, and everytime she steps on the ice, she will be introuduced as a world champion.I agree, and that is why Tara and Sarah delivered in the big night, MK did not. Michelle delivered in the big night five times at world championship the others did not. Shizuka delivered in the big night worlds 04 and Cohen did not. Skating is a sports
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- Mar 22, 2004
I am a MK fan, and I do think she has a chance of a medal. However, some immediate things which strike me are these:
1.) Consistency MK has not really been extremely consistent in her LPs since 1998, but has still managed to pull out medals at every event until this past year's Worlds. And this year she only went off the podium because three other ladies were more consistent through every phase of the competition. She generally has at least 5 clean triples plus the double axel. The "problem" has been that 6th or 7th triple she has doubled/fallen on/two-footed. Although she has stated she doesn't like doing the GPs, the CoP feedback and the extra time just putting her programs out there for scrutiny should pay dividends in making her feel more comfortable with the program in "pressure moments." It would also send a message to the judges that she is serious about competing and taking the lumps along with the good stuff.
2. Improvement Will she improve the in-betweens and choreography? This, in my mind, would help make up for the area she lacks most in: spins, and even there she has made improvements in her body positions, speed, and difficulty in the last two seasons. Let's face it, she is not as "flexy-bendy" as some other skaters, and I'd rather see her do a spin she can do well than a poor attempt at a spin she is barely capable of doing. Despite having some inconsistency with jumps in the past two season, her over-all jump technique is better than ever. No, she does not get the height that Irina gets, but her edges going into the jumps, run out, and feet position in the air are all superior. Her ice coverage on the jumps is also improved. Her speed has improved in the last two seasons as well.
3. Attack Risk is not the word I ever associate with MK (except perhaps when leaving Frank during the last Olympic cycle). The constant revising of "Bolero" is something which, I feel, ultimately left her unable to "attack" the program. In her best "shock and awe" performances, MK did not take so much what I would call "risks" as simply do everything she is capable of doing and turn the volume up on it - full blast. If she skates tentatively in Turin, I don't think she can come away with gold. If she throws down the gauntlet and dares the others to beat her, she should be on the podium.
4. The Unknown Without having seen anyone's programs for the up-coming season, it is difficult to gauge who is going to come out looking like a forerunner for Olympic glory. Add to this: health issues for a myriad of skaters (ladies and men, pair skaters and dancers). Then quadruple all those factors into the secretive and fickle new judging system, which will be facing its most rigorous scrutiny yet.
1.) Consistency MK has not really been extremely consistent in her LPs since 1998, but has still managed to pull out medals at every event until this past year's Worlds. And this year she only went off the podium because three other ladies were more consistent through every phase of the competition. She generally has at least 5 clean triples plus the double axel. The "problem" has been that 6th or 7th triple she has doubled/fallen on/two-footed. Although she has stated she doesn't like doing the GPs, the CoP feedback and the extra time just putting her programs out there for scrutiny should pay dividends in making her feel more comfortable with the program in "pressure moments." It would also send a message to the judges that she is serious about competing and taking the lumps along with the good stuff.
2. Improvement Will she improve the in-betweens and choreography? This, in my mind, would help make up for the area she lacks most in: spins, and even there she has made improvements in her body positions, speed, and difficulty in the last two seasons. Let's face it, she is not as "flexy-bendy" as some other skaters, and I'd rather see her do a spin she can do well than a poor attempt at a spin she is barely capable of doing. Despite having some inconsistency with jumps in the past two season, her over-all jump technique is better than ever. No, she does not get the height that Irina gets, but her edges going into the jumps, run out, and feet position in the air are all superior. Her ice coverage on the jumps is also improved. Her speed has improved in the last two seasons as well.
3. Attack Risk is not the word I ever associate with MK (except perhaps when leaving Frank during the last Olympic cycle). The constant revising of "Bolero" is something which, I feel, ultimately left her unable to "attack" the program. In her best "shock and awe" performances, MK did not take so much what I would call "risks" as simply do everything she is capable of doing and turn the volume up on it - full blast. If she skates tentatively in Turin, I don't think she can come away with gold. If she throws down the gauntlet and dares the others to beat her, she should be on the podium.
4. The Unknown Without having seen anyone's programs for the up-coming season, it is difficult to gauge who is going to come out looking like a forerunner for Olympic glory. Add to this: health issues for a myriad of skaters (ladies and men, pair skaters and dancers). Then quadruple all those factors into the secretive and fickle new judging system, which will be facing its most rigorous scrutiny yet.
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