Early Predictions

[fumie_fumie]

Wow, I didn't hear about that new rule... I think Jessica does plan to do both programs, though - last year was because of a lack of preparation and, considering her operations and injuries, it kind of made sense. I do feel bad for the lady who lost out on a place, though... I'm not quite sure which side I'm on for this, but I'd love to *see Jessica do all 4 programs, well 5 with the gala in pairs!! (*see because I doubt her long program will be broadcast... her short has been in the last 2 years)

Kypma

If she places well at the nationals, Is it possible to send Jessica to Junior worlds? Chances are she would earn more spots to the JGP next year than any other junior ladies would in the fields right now. She has built up a good reputation internationally, and she has been placed better than most of our junor ladies.

 

[Bennett]

How many spots does Canada have for men's singles and ladies' single for Worlds?

 

[fumie_fumie]

Seniors are doing not bad.

Men and ladies have two spots for each.

Junior ladies are in jeopardy. After Myriane Samson bombed at junior worlds in 2007, the number of our junior ladies spot in JGP was reduced to 7. Skate Canada usually sends the best-placed ladies under 20 at the nationals to the junior worlds. Hence, Myriane Samson to the last Junior Worlds.

The problem is if a junior lady has been consistently strong internationally, but bombed at the Nationals, she won't get to go to the junior worlds. Case in point is Megan Duhamel, she beat Kimmie Meissner big time at a couple of JGP events, and then goofed up at the nationals. So, Skate Canada kept Megan home in favour of somebody else. I don't blame Megan having lost her motivation as a single skater. Had Megan been sent to the Junior Worlds, who know how far she would have progressed as a single skater. What a waste of talent on the part of Skate Canada!

 

[nadster]

If she places well at the nationals, Is it possible to send Jessica to Junior worlds? Chances are she would earn more spots to the JGP next year than any other junior ladies would in the fields right now. She has built up a good reputation internationally, and she has been placed better than most of our junor ladies.

Unfortunately Dube is 20 years old ( born Oct 1987) so no she can't go to Junior Worlds. She did get 2 JGP medals in the past which is 2 more than the number of JGP medals earned by our ladies in the last 2 years.

 

[nadster]

.

The problem is if a junior lady has been consistently strong internationally, but bombed at the Nationals, she won't get to go to the junior worlds. Case in point is Megan Duhamel, she beat Kimmie Meissner big time at a couple of JGP events, and then goofed up at the nationals. So, Skate Canada kept Megan home in favour of somebody else. I don't blame Megan having lost her motivation as a single skater. Had Megan been sent to the Junior Worlds, who know how far she would have progressed as a single skater. What a waste of talent on the part of Skate Canada!

About Duhamel , totally agree!! Skate Canada never even looked at the fact that it was the first time Duhamel competed both singles and pairs at that particular nationals ( She was then with Ryan Arnold in her first year in pairs). Obviously that would have an effect on her nationals performance.

Skate Canada then compounded the initial error by not even submitting her name for GP consideration the following year. She only received B events which do nothing for her ranking.

 

[nadster]

.

Junior ladies are in jeopardy. After Myriane Samson bombed at junior worlds in 2007, the number of our junior ladies spot in JGP was reduced to 7. Skate Canada usually sends the best-placed ladies under 20 at the nationals to the junior worlds. Hence, Myriane Samson to the last Junior Worlds.

We can only send 1 lady to Junior Worlds and have to hope that our lady finishes in the top 5 countries at JW to restore our JGP slots to 16. There is a big dropoff in slots outside the top 5 as country 6 only gets 8 slots which is only one more slot than what we have right now. The top 5 country finish seems very unlikely no matter who we send. Samson , Lacoste or Szmiett are our best hopes but whoever is chosen has to put 2 strong programs together that so far none of our JW candidates have shown an ability to do at the international level.

The problem with the ladies competing juniors at nationals is that none of them have the jumps to even compete at the junior level internationally. A salchow and toe ( with so-so PCS ) will pretty much win you junior ladies at nationals.

 

[chuckm]

USA, Japan and Finland are sure to get 3 of the top 5 spots, and Estonia will likely get one as well. I think Canada will have to get past Italy, Korea and maybe Russia to get that 5th spot.

Problem is, the most likely skater to be sent to JW is Samsone, Lacoste or Szmiett. Samsone bombed last year, Lacoste hasn't skated internationally this season at all, at Szmiett had bad JGP results. Based on the Senior Challenge results, only Lacoste has a decent 3 loop, but not much else in the jump department. The other two miss more jumps than they land.

 

[fumie_fumie]

How about sending Mira to junior worlds? She is still eligible. It would benefit her, as she will place better in standing than in seniors'. Wouldn't it bring more points in accumulated standing to be fairly high in junior worlds than 24th at seniors'?

 

[chuckm]

It would make sense for Skate Canada to send Mira to JW, but I don't think Mira would agree to go. Her overbearing mother would never allow Mira to put the welfare of the Canadian federation ahead of Mme Leung's dictates (even if Mira was guaranteed to do both JW and Worlds).

Too bad, because Mira probably could put Canada in the top 5 countries at JW. OTOH, Mira making top 10 at Worlds is not anywhere near as likely.

 

[nadster]

fumie_fumie and chuckm. Excellent points.

chuckm , to highlight the stubborness of the Mira camp when Mira finished 5th at nationals SC offered Mira spots on the JGP. She turned them down and then got an opportunity to be on the senior GP because Annie Bellemare got injured.

Even her trip to junior worlds was done with her camp kicking and screaming because they thought they were robbed of a trip to senior worlds when Phaneuf finished 2nd at nationals with a weak performance jumpwise (but with much better presentation) and Mira finished 3rd.

The biggest problem for our ladies is how ill-prepared our girls are for international competition. Competing against strong competition is much more pressure than competing against a bunch of also-rans who would struggle to land any double axel or triple. Unfortunately , our ladies in summer competitions ( where SC makes decisions on assignments) get much more of the latter. Most summer competitions consist of one good skater in a very mediocre group. In most junior ladies groups here, landing a double axel will win you the competition in a typical summer competition. Performing under such lack of pressure ( it is harder to skate well when you know your competition has skated well or have the potential to skate well than competing against also-rans) is hardly a good barometer of how they would do internationally.

To show you how weak our junior ladies are: Last year at the Western Challenge in junior ladies, not one triple was cleanly landed and 10 of them made it to nationals. This year at central Ontario sectionals j ( pretty large section in terms of number of skaters competing), Vanessa Crone ( who made JGPF in dance ) won junior ladies without even attempting a triple jump in either short or long program.

Sometimes we will have a junior lady that performs reasonably well at nationals ( like Szmiett did in 2006 earning her a trip to JW) but due to lack of competition nationally simply don't know how to compete against better competition.

Until the Canadian summer competitions are toughened up by having finals consisting of the best in each flight or we send our girls to tougher competitions abroad like the big US summer competition, we will continue to send our ladies unprepared for the junior international level.

 

[Winnipeg]

It would make sense for Skate Canada to send Mira to JW, but I don't think Mira would agree to go. Her overbearing mother would never allow Mira to put the welfare of the Canadian federation ahead of Mme Leung's dictates (even if Mira was guaranteed to do both JW and Worlds).

Too bad, because Mira probably could put Canada in the top 5 countries at JW. OTOH, Mira making top 10 at Worlds is not anywhere near as likely.

I cannot uderstand why Mira wold not go. She has an opportunity to help Sc and achieve appreciation from skating fans..............some fodder to prove we are all wrong about her attitude.................missed opportunity IMO

 

[skatingfan04]

Those 2 teams got byes to nationals due to making the JGPF.

There is nothing random about the CD/SP start orders. The start order was determined this way: ( In order from 1st to last). Note byed skaters are those with a GP assignment, medalled at the last nationals or made it to the JGPF.

1. Non-byed skaters who made through challenge in reverse order of finish at challenge.

2. Random draw of byed skaters who did not compete at last senior nationals.
Note Crone/Poirier and Lenko/Islam would be in this category.

3. Byed skaters who competed at last year's senior nationals in reverse order of finish at the nationals.

Thanks, nadster. I did know that the starting order was not chosen randomly. What I meant was that I really like both teams, and I'm happy that their byes allowed them to be in the final flight, beacuse I feel that they belong there. I really hope that Crone/Poirier and Lenko/Islam's programs are broadcast. I havn't been able to see C./P programs yet, and the only video of Lenko/Islam I could find was their FD from the JGP Lake Placid in early September. I wan't to see how the program has progressed.

 

[fumie_fumie]

To show you how weak our junior ladies are: Last year at the Western Challenge in junior ladies, not one triple was cleanly landed and 10 of them made it to nationals. This year at central Ontario sectionals j ( pretty large section in terms of number of skaters competing), Vanessa Crone ( who made JGPF in dance ) won junior ladies without even attempting a triple jump in either short or long program.

Sometimes we will have a junior lady that performs reasonably well at nationals ( like Szmiett did in 2006 earning her a trip to JW) but due to lack of competition nationally simply don't know how to compete against better competition.

Until the Canadian summer competitions are toughened up by having finals consisting of the best in each flight or we send our girls to tougher competitions abroad like the big US summer competition, we will continue to send our ladies unprepared for the junior international level.

I hope Skate Canada sends more ladies to US summer competitions and B international competitions to have them get the taste of what real "games" are like. This will be a rude awakening for a lot of our junior/senior ladies. You can push the junior ladies so much if they can't find the drive or motivation to work and compete.

 

[nadster]

I hope Skate Canada sends more ladies to US summer competitions and B international competitions to have them get the taste of what real "games" are like. This will be a rude awakening for a lot of our junior/senior ladies. You can push the junior ladies so much if they can't find the drive or motivation to work and compete.

Skate Canada's policy is not to send anybody to an international competition unless they meet their international assignment criteria.

The official criteria is the for senior international events is this:

LADIES:
Short : Triple combo, Triple from steps
Level 3-4 spins, 2-3 Footwork, Level 4 Spirals
Free : Minimum 5 Triples, (preference to 4 different triples)
Level 3-4 spins, 2-3 Footwork, Level 4 Spirals
Elements score a quality GOE when executed
Program components are in the appropriate range to be competitive at this level of competition

This year Skate Canada wanted to send Phaneuf to Nebelhorn but Phaneuf missed it due to injury. Skate Canada did send men , dance and pairs couples to 2 senior "b" events this year but no ladies. This is because according to SC, they couldn't find a lady who met these requirements who didn't already have 2 GP's or was on the JGP circuit.

I disagree with just leaving the spots blank though. With only 7 JGP slots this year ( top countries get 16) surely we had room to give one of our juniors who didn't make the JGP the slot for the experience. Instead of sending the juniors to the Merano cup ( where the competition is quite weak) why not send them to a senior B. I guarantee they won't do well there but they'll at least experience the pressure of facing a quality field, something our juniors don't get in Canada.

As for the American summer competitions, our young Canadian dancers all compete in Lake Placid during the summer. And our dance results are way ahead of our women's results. Only Lesley Hawker and Patrick Chan competed in a big summer US competition this year. None of our more promising juniors in singles competed in the US. Why Skate Canada doesn't do with the single skaters what they do with the dancers is a mystery especially considering that our dance program is quite strong. I would think you would want to adapt what is working in one area ( dance) to other areas ( ladies especially)

 

[Winnipeg]

Nadster,

:thumbsup:You raise excellent points. I too cannot fathom why SC would leave spots vacant when we could be getting young ladies experience................so what if they don't win, it is a building block for the future IMO.

Unlike the men's event seems to be, the upcoming ladies competition looks pretyy much like: Joannie 100% for sure unless she withdraws or leaves her skates at home, and the others a real XXXX shoot, whoever falls the least will place higher? I sure hope not but................I have seen national ladies events where just keeping them on their feet was a challenge...........:scratch:hwell:

Without juniors coming along..............the trend cannot be broken..........maybe SC should look for skaters outside of Canada that are eligible to skate here like Emily Hughes?

 

[fumie_fumie]

I agree with Winterpeg that we should look into having Emily skate for Canada.

As Nadster mentioned, the restrictions that Skate Canada has put on international competitions including senior B appeared to be unrealistic. In Japan, Skaters like Nana Takeda who has no flips or lutz in her programs not only compete internationally at senior level, but also medals at an GP event (NHK). What is going on here? Does it indicate to Skate Canada that a junior lady who has a consistent loop, toe and salcow has a good shot in international competitions. Once a junior lady has a double axel, toe, salcow and loop, Skate Canada should encourage them to compete at senior B events so that they can see with their eyes open what they need to learn down the road.

I guess Skate Canada hopes that skaters like Samson will magically put two clean programs together to earn more spots internationally. However, Samson is hardly a consistent skater, although she has flips and lutzes. So, you have two choices 1) send somebody like Samson and prey that she have a skate of her life and somehow magically pull through, 2) look for younger ladies who have CONSISTENT loops, toes and salcows and bring their technical level up through competitions and practices.

And by sending Mira to junior, Lesley will have a once in a life time chance of going to Worlds and Skate Canada will have more spots to the next junior worlds.

I wonder if anyone from Skate Canada reads this forum..

 

[nadster]

I guess Skate Canada hopes that skaters like Samson will magically put two clean programs together to earn more spots internationally. However, Samson is hardly a consistent skater, although she has flips and lutzes. So, you have two choices 1) send somebody like Samson and prey that she have a skate of her life and somehow magically pull through, 2) look for younger ladies who have CONSISTENT loops, toes and salcows and bring their technical level up through competitions and practices.

And by sending Mira to junior, Lesley will have a once in a life time chance of going to Worlds and Skate Canada will have more spots to the next junior worlds.

I wonder if anyone from Skate Canada reads this forum..

I agree with what you say fumie_fumie.

Well actually I am more concerned about the JGP slots than the JW slots as that has more impact on the development. Since JW results determine both JGP slots and JW slots for next season , the 2 go hand in hand.

The problem in Canada is that there is no junior lady with consistent toe , salchow and loop. Most of our junior ladies don't have any consistent triples at all. A toe and salchow with PCS marks averaging around 4.25 in each category will be enough to win junior ladies in nationals. Some of our junior ladies who made it to nationals won't even try a triple jump in either short or long. But still our junior ladies should be exposed to competitions where merely having a double axel won't give you a medal as is the case for many of our summer competitions and even sectional ( and sometimes challenges as well - see last year's Western Challenge as an example)

 

[laceup]

The great news is there were several Novice Ladies at Challenge last month who each had at least one nice triple. SC needs to take these ladies and get them out there gaining experience now, rather than looking at them in 2-3 years.

 

[nadster]

The great news is there were several Novice Ladies at Challenge last month who each had at least one nice triple. SC needs to take these ladies and get them out there gaining experience now, rather than looking at them in 2-3 years.

I agree and our top novice ladies seem to be more consistent with the toe and salchow at least than many of our top juniors. Hopefully some of these ladies will get JGP assignments next year.

 

[skatergirl45]

I agree that SC should send Mira to both Jr/Sr worlds. She definitely has the best chance of a top 5 finish. Therefore, getting the JGP spots back.

It is not about "lowering" Mira to the Juniors again but instead, helping SC in the future.