GP Finals - Analysis, not predictions for your review

[Joesitz (RIP)]

1. How much of a threat will Mao be to Irina's "all-too-easy-win"?

2. Will Miki overcome her faulty not too grand GP series?

3. Does either Nakana and Czisny have a chance for the podium?

4. Will it be the Canadian or Japanese men to be the dominant force here?

5. Will Stephane skate as a World Champion should, and win this?

6. Will Lysacek be a factor in this race for podium?

7. Will T&M have an easy win or will Pet&Tik's much improved rapport win?

8. How much will Sav/Scho and Pang/Tong figure in the results?

9. Is it time for Tat/Kos to bow to another for first place?

10.Which team will rise to the occasion? D/L; G/G; C/S; D/S?

After pondering the above, can you really predict the podiums for each discipline? - Well DO IT!

Joe

 

[CDMM1991]

Okay well I'll try my best here.

Ladies:

1. Irina Slutskaya
2. Mao Asada
3. Alissa Czisny
4. Miki Ando
5. Yukari Nakano
6. Elena Sokolova

Men:

1. Stephane Lambiel
2. Emanuel Sandhu
3. Jeffrey Buttle
4. Nobunari Oda
5. Daisuke Takahashi
6. Evan Lysacek

Pairs:

1. Tatiana Totmianina/Maxim Marinin
2. Aliona Savchenko/Robin Szolkowy
3. Maria Petrova/Alexei Tikhanov
4. Dan Zhang/Hao Zhang
5. Julia Obertas/Sergei Slavnov
6. Qing Pang/Jian Tong

Ice Dancing:

1. Tatiana Navka/Roman Kostomarov
2. Marie-France Dubreuil/Patrice Lauzon
3. Isabelle Delobel/Olivier Scheonfelder
4. Elena Grushina/Ruslan Goncharov
5. Galit Chait/Sergei Saknovski
6. Oksana Domnina/Maxim Shabalin

The winners [with the exception of the men] were easy to predict but other than that all of these could go any way!

 

[CDMM1991]

As for the answers to your questions, here goes:

1. Only if Mao is clean, and Irina falters, will there be any question. If we have two clean skates, the gold will be Irina's.

2. She may have slightly better skates, but I don't think enough to medal. She doesn't seem to have her A-game with her these days.

3. If Czisny keeps skating like she has nothing to lose, she may round out the podium. If she falters under pressure, then the bronze will probably go to Nakano.

4. Judging by the results so far this year, I think the Canadians will dominate. Eman has the quad, Jeff has David Wilson done well. Those two things spell dominance.

5. Whether he will skate as a world champion should, who knows, but I think he will still win it, if Eman has his usual bad short and come-back long, and Jeff still can't land the jumps.

6. Lysacek got lucky with his assignments, but I don't think he'll be in the race for the podium, unless the quad appears out of nowhere.

7. I think Tatiana and Max will have the easy win, and if they do have a threat it will be the Germans not their fellow countrymen.

8. The Germans have been on fire, and without the possibility of going to the Olympics, this is their time to shine. As for the Chinese pair, I've never been a big fan.

9. No. Navka and Kostomarov are going to win it again. When's the last time they haven't won a competition?

10. Dubreuil and Lauzon seem to have the programs and the execution to be on the GPF and the Olys podium, with the absence of Belbin and Agosto.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Okay well I'll try my best here.

CDMM - you like to be the first one on the block to predict. I'm happy to see you can now give a rationale for your choices. That's what I am interested in. Not just the obvious choices without reason. (Your first on the block predictions for who would make it to the Finals was not the best, and I think it is because you wouldn't wait until the last competition.)

Joe

 

[R.D.]

I'll go for the ladies questions. As for predictions, not from me- I know who's winning already

Number One seems to be an easy one, but it's actually not. I really do think that Mao has got the jumps, but doesn't quite have that "whole package" to compete with Irina yet. Of course, if Irina manages to flub, the door is suddenly wide open, and Mao COULD walk through with a couple of CLEAN skates. But I really would be shocked if Irina doesn't win this one (not to mention thrilled).

Number Two: I absolutely wouldn't write off any of these Japanese ladies. Look how strong Suguri came back after basically bombing her first GP event. I do think Miki has it in her to do really well here. Could even knock beloved Alissa off the podium (boo-hoo).

Number Three: Both skaters definitely have a chance at the podium. But in the end, it comes down to who can EXECUTE that night. And that's who the podium spot will go to. I've never seen more than one skater give the performance of their life in a single competition, ever. (Hardcore skating fans: Has this ever happened?)

 

[Ptichka]

1. Let's look at their GP events:
Cup of China - both compete, Irina wins each segment.
It's interesting that the base values of SP elements is lower for Irina (31.5) than for Mao (32.9). However, even on the technical, Irina's final mark is higher than Mao's - Irina's 38.5 to Mao's 35.6.

In the free, Mao's base elements are again slightly higher than Irina's (by 0.1) and way higher than Shizuka's; of course, here she only comes 3d in the free.

France - Mao
Through tiny improvements in both elements in components, Mao's SP score was about a point higher than her China showing. Still not close to Irina's scores.

FS is a bit more interesting. While her elements marks were still lower than Irina's in China, they were much closer. The components were a little higher as well.

Russia - Irina
Irina's SP scores were actually lower than in China; still higher than eigher of Mao's showing, though. In the FS, she beat her own China score.

Bottom line, unless Irina break down (which has been known to happen), she wins.

2. In Russia, Ando actually wasn't too bad. She placed 2nd to Irina, and especially in the SP it was a strong 2nd. If she skates the same way in the final, she can very well get the bronze.

OTOH, her last skate was the NHK. In the short, her only combo got a seriously negative GoE. Other jumps were just a 3F and 2A. In the free, 3 of her jumps had negative GoE. Had her two GPs been in reverse, I would have been more comfortable predicting a good showing for her.

Impossible to tell. If Ando we saw in Russia is the indication, she can medal. If Ando we saw at NHK is it, she may come 5th or 6th.

3. Look at the previous analysis.

If Ando skates the way she did in Japan, either Czisny or Nakano should medal (Elena is a wild card; I won't even try to predict her)

4. I won't try to predict Sandhu, he is like Elena. Analyzing results alone gives us a clear prefernce for the Canadians - Oda placed behind both Canadians in Canada, and ahead of Takahashi (who hasn't faced the Canadians) at NHK.

Canadians should still be more of a force than the Japanese.

5. Lambiel's combined CoP score is actually is highest of the 6 finalists.

Watch out for Lambiel!

6. Lysacek's strength is his consistency. While he is perhaps the weakest skater of the finalists, if others falter, he could medal.

7. Judging by the GP scores, Totmianina & Marinin should have no problem.

8. Pang & Tong's combines score was almost as high as Petrova & Tikhonov's. Savchenko & Szolkowy actually won over Pet&Tik in Canada. Sure the Zhangs won over the Germans in Japan, but S&S won the short, and lost the FS because of the -1 deduction for the fall.

Both those teams, especially the Germans, will play an important role at the Finals.

9. My gut reaction was to say "No way!". Looking at the scores confirms my gut. N&K win!

10. I would love to see D&S rise. While I don't like Linichuk, I had high hopes for their "new coach" experience. I also feel that if they don't medal at GPF, they are not likely to do so at the Olympics. Not least because of the confidence issues.

C&S have a great program. G&G have been doing rather well. D&L have trully kicked butt.

Any of those teams could rise to the occasion. D&S probably will not

Predictions
Dance

1. Navka & Kostomarov
2. Dubreuil & Lauzon
3. Delobel & Schoenfelder
4. Grushina & Goncharov
5. Chait & Sakhnovsky
6. Denkova & Stavijski

Pair

1. Totmianina & Marinin
2. Petrova & Tikhonov
3. Savchenko & Szolkowy
4. Pang & Tong
5. Zhang & Zhang
6. Obertas & Slavnov

Men

1. Lambiel
2. Buttle
3. Oda
4. Lysacek
5. Sandhu
6. Takahashi

Ladies

1. Slutskaya
2. Asada
3. Ando
4. Czisny
5. Nakano
6. Sokolova

 

[rain]

Interesting questions all. Here are my predictions....subject to change, of course, should one or more of the competitors bow out in this Olympic year:

Ladies:
Slutskaya (by a mile)
Asada
Czisny

Men:
Lambiel
Sandhu
Takahashi
spoiler could be Buttle

Dance:
Navka/Kostomorov - I wish someone would beat them, as I don't think they're head and shoulders above the field, but I think the judges believe they are
Chait/Sahknovsky - would love to see Delobel/Schoenfelder instead, but for some reason the judges don't seem to be feeling the love this season
Dubreuil/Lauzon - would really love to see them on the podium and their results thus far are encouraging.

Pairs:
Totmianina/ Marinin - unfortunately I think the judges will hold them up in a somewhat uninspiring field.
Petrova/ Tihkonov
Savchenko /Szolkowy

 

[Doggygirl]

CDMM - you like to be the first one on the block to predict. I'm happy to see you can now give a rationale for your choices. That's what I am interested in. Not just the obvious choices without reason. (Your first on the block predictions for who would make it to the Finals was not the best, and I think it is because you wouldn't wait until the last competition.)

Joe

In a bit of defense of CDMM, he/she came up I think 23rd in the official prediction contest for the whole GP Series (out of high 80's as participants). That meant picking teams before the whole GP season started. A LONG prediction. You seem to be "knocking" CDMM's predictions in your post. And if you are not, then my apologies right now.

I'm just pointing out the results from a structured prediction contest, where I did not happen to see your name at all. (But if I missed it, or if you registered for the contest under another name, please say so).

At the end of the day, I think I am simply missing your point about CDMM's predictions. Hoping for further clarification.

DG

 

[Vash01]

1. How much of a threat will Mao be to Irina's "all-too-easy-win"?

2. Will Miki overcome her faulty not too grand GP series?

3. Does either Nakana and Czisny have a chance for the podium?

4. Will it be the Canadian or Japanese men to be the dominant force here?

5. Will Stephane skate as a World Champion should, and win this?

6. Will Lysacek be a factor in this race for podium?

7. Will T&M have an easy win or will Pet&Tik's much improved rapport win?

8. How much will Sav/Scho and Pang/Tong figure in the results?

9. Is it time for Tat/Kos to bow to another for first place?

10.Which team will rise to the occasion? D/L; G/G; C/S; D/S?

After pondering the above, can you really predict the podiums for each discipline? - Well DO IT!

Joe

1.I don't think any win is 'easy'. Other ladies will push Irina to skate well. I don't see her losing this one unless she has a meltdown or health issues. Mao can land all her jumps but I don't think she can beat Irina right now, unless the defending champ makes major mistakes in both SP & LP.

2.I was pleasantly surprised by Miki's new look at the COR SP. Obviously she is not skating consistently since she did not do well at NHK. If she skates reasonably well, she could take the bronze. I don't see her beating Mao because her jump combinations are being downgraded.

3.Nakano & Csizny received gifts from lady luck in their GP's. I don't see them on the podium at GPF. However, Alissa will skate well. I don't think Yukari will. She was 2nd and 3rd in the SP & LP at NHK.

4.The Canadian men will dominate, if Sandhu continues with his new found form. Otherwise I expect to see Jeff Buttle in 1st or 2nd place. The judges seem to ignore his mistakes on jumps (or may be the COP is not harsh enough on multiple mistakes on jumps, the way the 6.0 used to be). For Sandhu it seems to be all or nothing, so if he does not win the gold, he will be off the podium. I expect to see Lambiel in 1st or 2nd place. I don't expect to see the Japanese men on the podium- the best for them would be the 3rd spot.

5.Stephane looked pretty good to me, even with mistakes. I think it will be close between him and Buttle. As the defending world champ he will get the benefit of doubt in a close match up. Plus he has the quad and Jeff has not landed one in a GP.

6.Lysacek is generally a consistent skater. If anyone makes a mistake, he will sneak in for a podium spot but I don't see him at the top. Buttle will place over him, even with mistakes, because of the high PCS scores.

7.As I said earlier, there is no easy win, for any skater. T&M will be in a dog fight with Zhang & Zhang who won both their GP's and have landed a quad throw (can't remember which competition- not a GP). Petrova-Tikhonov will have to skate nearly clean to get the silver. I think they will lose to Z&Z.

8.S&S and Pang & Tong have the potential to win the silver if any of the above mentioned pairs make mistakes. S&S is still a developing pair. Pang & Tong are more developed and if they skate clean, they could upset both Z&Z and Pet-Tik. Their best chance however may be for the bronze.

9.N&K are still the strongest ice dance team. In the absence of Belbin & Agosto I expect them to win. Pushing them will be Grush-Gon and Del-Schoel.

10.The team most likely to rise to the occasion would be Del-Schoel, but they will only move to second place, not to the top.

So here are my predictions:

Ladies:

1.Irina
2.Mao
3.Miki
4.Alissa
5.Elena
6.Yukari

Men:

1.Lambiel
2.Buttle
3.Lysacek
4.Oda
5.Sandhu
6.Takahashi

Pairs:

1.T&M
2.Zhang & Zhang
3.Pet-Tik
4.Pang & Tong
5.Sav-Szol
6.Obertas-Slavnov

Ice dance:

1.N&K
2.Del-Schol
3.G&G
4.D&L
5.C&S
6.D&S

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

In a bit of defense of CDMM, he/she came up I think 23rd in the official prediction contest for the whole GP Series (out of high 80's as participants). That meant picking teams before the whole GP season started. A LONG prediction. You seem to be "knocking" CDMM's predictions in your post. And if you are not, then my apologies right now.DG

No offence to CDMM was intended, and I certainly apologize if that's the way it read. It's just that bland placings without any comments seems to me to be nothing more than an ok. there is also the scare that bland placings from 1000 posters might not be all that interesting, especially the 425th post.

really sorry CDMM. You can predict any time you want.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

1. She can make Irina feel some pressure which probably no other woman can do right now. If she skates before Irina and skates better than she did at COC, Irina might feel som eheat.

2. Not too much, she is skating as well as I thought she would, and will continue along those lines IMO. She hit her peak in 2004 as a newcomer.

3. Csizny a chance but an underdog to Ando for the bronze. Nakano? No chance unless she hits her triple axel, rotated to be ratified, and skates totally clean, which she never does.

4. Could be either. The Japanese men and Canadian men go in pretty close.
I am going to go with Canada slightly for now though.

5. I think he will. He was much better at COR than Eric Bompard but still has alot of room to grow. I think he will be alot better still at the GP final and he should win it, with Plushenko out of course.

6. No, unless others self-combust.

7. T & M could find themselves in a tight competition if they are off their game like COC, otherwise an easy win. Petrova/Tikhonov have not truly rivaled them in many years, and their new rapport did not impress the judges enough to beat the up and coming Germans at Skate Canada, with one side-by-side miss per program their only flaws and the Germans not at their best in the final free.

8. Quite possably alot. Pang/Tong look better than they ever have to me, missing the podium at Worlds was probably a motivating factor. They are a threat to any team except T & M right now. S & S are threats as well, they almost won their second GP at NHK, and mistakes in the free probably prevented this. They have a refreshing style, and elegance, and the judges are starting to notice it.

9. Definitely not.

10. Might be Grushina/Goncharov since they are probably still on a mission to put their Skate Canada embarassment behind them.

 

[CDMM1991]

No offence to CDMM was intended, and I certainly apologize if that's the way it read. It's just that bland placings without any comments seems to me to be nothing more than an ok. there is also the scare that bland placings from 1000 posters might not be all that interesting, especially the 425th post.

really sorry CDMM. You can predict any time you want.

Joe

No offence taken Joe! I just flubbed up the order of my posts and did my predictions first and then remembered to actually post my answers to the questions, after already thinking about them in my head haha! Sorry about that! Great questions!

 

[Jaana]

1. How much of a threat will Mao be to Irina's "all-too-easy-win"?

I think that Mao is no thread to Irina and would not feel suprised even if she actually finished third or bit lower.

2. Will Miki overcome her faulty not too grand GP series?

Doesn´t she have an injury now?

3. Does either Nakana and Czisny have a chance for the podium?

I think both have a chance, Nakano a better one, in my opinion.

4. Will it be the Canadian or Japanese men to be the dominant force here?

Difficult to say, but I think that in top four weill be at least one Canadian and one Japanese skater, LOL.

5. Will Stephane skate as a World Champion should, and win this?

Hmm, it could be that he is not totally ready yet.

My predictions are:

Men
Sandhu
Lambiel
Takahashi
Buttle
Oda

Ladies
Slutskaya
Asada
Nakano
Czisny
Ando
Sokolova

Pairs
Totmianina / Marinin
Zhang / Zhang
Pang / Tong
Petrova / Tikhonov
Savchenko / Szolkony
Obertas / Slavnov

Dance
Navka / Kostomarov
Dubreuil / Lauzon
Grushina / Goncharov
Delobel / Schoenfelder
Chait / Sakhnovski
Domnina / Shabalin