Okay, tossing out some thoughts.
1. Russian Baby Brigade
Okay, can someone briefly tell me (a)which Russians will be competing on the senior and junior circuits this season and (b) which ones will be old enough for Sochi? Because it took me a good year to learn how to spell Savchenko/Szolkowy and I'm gathering I'm gonna need some practice for this group of talented girls. I'm inclined to avoid expectations as young + growth = issues and I have no idea who's who at this point.
2. Kim and Rochette... to continue?
Okay - as soon as they leave, the level of skating in their discipline/nation will decline and it'll be unlikely to improve for a while; Kim's such a unique talent and I gather that the way Canada programs ladies' skating has an adverse effect on development. So both federations have a vested reason to see their top talent continue. But will they?
In many respects, they both had two similar seasons. Both won both GP events in the 2008/09 season, had disappointing results at the GPF, only to get their best results at 4CC and Worlds. Both struggled with pressure during the 2009/10 GP season and went on to triumph at the Olympics. Rochette withdrew from worlds (understandably) and Kim, thanks to her fiduciary obligations, probably should have (of course, disappointing Kim is still ahead of most of this field, and it's not like Worlds 2010 was a great event).
I think both are done, though for different reasons. Both will be adversely affected by the new rules (as I understand them). Rochette, who skates cleanly without edge or UR calls doesn't benefit from the new tiered system of calling URs (and it's zero sum time - anything that directly helps someone else while not helping you hurts you). It's a little late for Rochette to start seriously incorporating 3-3s into her programs AND skipping the GP series means whatever programs she does have will likely have rust on them. Which won't hurt at Nationals (given Phaneuf's inconsistency and the relative weakness of the Canadian ladies, Rochette's not dropping below 2nd) but would be an issue on the international stage (we saw this last season in ice dance and the men). Kim, on the other hand, has a rock solid 3-3 and the PCS to match. But given all the recent drama, will she really want to continue? Again, what hurts her here is the lessening of importance on levels vis-a-vis the spiral sequence along with the shift in how URs are judged - that helps others and hurts her.
I don't see Rochette ever becoming a world champion at this point - the next generation is hungry and there are a lot of them, and I really wonder about Kim's motivation (yes, reports of her still doing the 3-3 notwithstanding - a year without competition is not the best way to stay hungry).
3.... whither Phaneuf?
So, does Phaneuf take her strong, clean skate at worlds and run with it, or was that a one off? And more importantly, does it matter? In a well-skated worlds, I think her performance would've been enough for top ten (maintaining two spots for Canada), but this wasn't a well-skated worlds (five skaters saw at least a six-place difference between their short and long programs - Kim, Nagasu, Ando, Gedevanishivili and Suzuki). But Phaneuf has no flip, no 3-3 and an iffy lutz. Which way does she go?
4. And what of Europe?
1999-2004 saw only three nations on the podium: USA, Japan and Russia. The following six years saw that number more than double (the aforementioned three, Italy, Canada, Finland and S. Korea). On the one hand, yay! More competition. On the other hand, world juniors? The aforementioned three. Ditto 2009. Ditto 2008. Ditto 2007 (except the USA hogs all three spots in 07 and 08). Now I don't really see much on the horizon for Canada or Italy. Are there any other countries in Europe that have skaters that could podium at Worlds in the near future, or even at a GP event, or will we revert back to early-aughts form.
