Javier Fernandez

[eppen]

Yesterday evening the clever and incrediby resourceful tureis found a video on YT that finally solves the mystery of the first quad!!!

Cup of Nice 2009 FS well hidden under the alias of Javier Fernandes (like, who is this Xavier Fernandes dude??). He falls, but it looks fully rotated. So, 153 quads in international competition so far. If we don't accept the two underrotated ones, he is still above 150 (and looked this way the distance to the other guys grows considerably).

So happy for getting to find that out and not live the rest of my life in horrible uncertainty! (I admit I almost cried when I watched the vid the first time...)

E

 

[tureis]

Yesterday evening the clever and incrediby resourceful tureis found a video on YT that finally solves the mystery of the first quad!!!

Cup of Nice 2009 FS well hidden under the alias of Javier Fernandes (like, who is this Xavier Fernandes dude??). He falls, but it looks fully rotated. So, 153 quads in international competition so far. If we don't accept the two underrotated ones, he is still above 150 (and looked this way the distance to the other guys grows considerably).

So happy for getting to find that out and not live the rest of my life in horrible uncertainty! (I admit I almost cried when I watched the vid the first time...)

E

Well you're very welcome, my friend! :2thumbs: And indeed, now we have Javi's full quad history. 153 attempts in international competitions and just 2 underrotations among them - that's really quite remarkable!

I loved this video and its bird's eye fan cam perspective, because it shows so perfectly how incredibly far Javi has come. Just look how slow and sloppy his skating was back then, how undefined his movements were. I can't even put into words how different today's Javi is. Just thinking back to seeing him live in Moscow, how perfectly in control of his blades he is, his swiftness and ease across the ice, how every single movement he does extends from his blades all the way to the tips of his fingers. But above all I can't get over Javi's fluidity, that seamless connection from one thing he does to the next, even compared to last season. I have so much respect for him that he still works hard to improve his skating!

 

[Olibritt]

What a great team you are!
And what an amazing work you have done! I love a good statistic, they usually gives great information but the process to get the data is hard and tedious. Congrats!
We all know that records are made to be broken and it looks that this new generation of skaters is destined to break that record soon (if they do not break themselves before , I really hope not, I do enjoy their efforts) but, while Javi's record stands, can we celebrate and brag a little about it?
I'd really love to know more about it. When you talk about the distance to the other guys, may I ask you what other guys are you talking about and what is the difference to them?

 

[Jaana]

Thanks so much for the 2009 clip, Eppen!!! The jumps were already there and his naturally charismatic ability to interpret. All those are factors on which a brilliant coach can build on the rest....

 

[eppen]

Olibritt, see post #3820 for what I did in early december. I checked the totals for the others after that, but the final results were not that much different.

Hanyu, Jin and Uno have all a possibility to make the 150 mark next season should they continue and remain healthy. But if the underrotations and downgrades are not counted in, then it's gonna be tougher for them. My baseline for this was Joubert's 100 quads in 2013 which were calculated with all attempts included, but it would be perhaps more correct to exclude the < and << jumps...

1. Javier Fernández 153 (2 <) > 151
2. Yuzuru Hanyu 118 (3 <<, 6 <) > 109
3. Shoma Uno 116 (5 <<, 9 <) > 102
4. Boyang Jin 113 (1 <<, 6 <) > 106
5. Brian Joubert ca. 111 (no protocols for all jumps = no < and << data)
6. ?Konstantin Menshov ca. 100 (no protocols for all jumps = no < and << data)
7. ?Evgeni Plushenko ca. 100 (no protocols for all jumps = no < and << data)
8. Chan 97 (7 <) > 90
9. Voronov 96 (1 <<, 6 <) > 89
10. Chen 82 (1 <<, 3 <) > 78
11. Kolyada 50 (2 <) > 48
(Brezina could maybe also be here with about 80 or so quads, but I had to draw the line somewhere.)

E

 

[Mussique]

Yesterday evening the clever and incrediby resourceful tureis found a video on YT that finally solves the mystery of the first quad!!!

Cup of Nice 2009 FS well hidden under the alias of Javier Fernandes (like, who is this Xavier Fernandes dude??). He falls, but it looks fully rotated. So, 153 quads in international competition so far. If we don't accept the two underrotated ones, he is still above 150 (and looked this way the distance to the other guys grows considerably).

So happy for getting to find that out and not live the rest of my life in horrible uncertainty! (I admit I almost cried when I watched the vid the first time...)

E

Amazing work!!! Did you count Merano Cup 2009 as well? It just appeared in my YouTube feed (YouTube knows what I like) and it says 21 Nov, 2009!

 

[eppen]

Amazing work!!! Did you count Merano Cup 2009 as well? It just appeared in my YouTube feed (YouTube knows what I like) and it says 21 Nov, 2009!

Of course - I would not dare to call it a complete list, if I were not reasonably sure of that I have everything

Here is the updated list. If I had the time I would learn how to do video clips of each jump and put them together, because I have videos for all 153 now... If the link doesn't work, please holler - it is a pdf through my dropbox.

E

 

[tureis]

You know, I think these numbers speak to very different but impressive things about several of these guys:

Javi - The sheer longevity of his career, really! He has been doing quads for 9(!!!) seasons now! Obviously he is now behind on the number of quads per program, but he was doing the most out of anyone around the top for quite a long time. And he took several seasons to gradually increase the number anyways, which were very clearly different times back then, with no one breaking their necks figuratively speaking to do more and more quads.

Shoma, Boyang - The fact that they were able to break 100 in such a short time is a testament to how much these two guys are driving the quad frenzy, and also how many events they are doing per season. Shoma in particular sometimes seems to do one every other week!

Yuzu - He is sort of the middle ground between Javi and the young quadster generation, and would be in the actual numbers too if his current season hadn't been interrupted by the injury. As Javi had done, he also increased the quads gradually across several seasons, so naturally his total had been climbing at a slower rate than what we see now from the quadsters, but he hasn't put a cap on his quads, for now at least.

Nathan - Same as Shoma and Boyang really, but even younger, and probably the first one who was already attempting 3 or more quads per program even as a junior.

These guys will obviously catch and surpass Javi very soon after he retires, and only time will tell how far their bodies will allow them to go. I just hope they will learn to be smart about it the way Javi clearly is, paying attention to when his body starts to say no. I would much prefer to see Javi's example with long careers than Tim Goebel's, being crippled by injuries too young.

Joubert, Plushenko, Menshov - It's impressive that they were able to break 100 in a different era, when quads weren't all the rage, so they needed long and/or stable careers to get so high in numbers.

 

[Olibritt]

Thanks a lot Eppen!
I’m absolutely impressed! I do think that a research like that deserves to be published, I really don’t have ideas about where or contacts, but it’s good enough to take it into account.
I saw your excel (PDF now) and your previous posts and I’m as excited to see them in detail as disappointed with myself, because I really shouldn’t be looking at them right now…

According to your data, 98,7% of Javi’s quads were fully rotated; it’s the highest percentage among the skaters listed and you are pointing out the probable cause, the gradual increase of difficulty in his programs, versus the “try it all” of Shoma (87,9%, still impressive).
I’m loving it and I can’t look more now… I’ll came back…
Thanks again!

Quads-Fully rotated-%
1. Javier Fernández 153-151-98,7%
2. Yuzuru Hanyu 118-109-92,4%
3. Shoma Uno 116-102-87,9%
4. Boyang Jin 113-106-93,8%
5. Brian Joubert 111
6. ?Konstantin Menshov 100
7. ?Evgeni Plushenko 100
8. Chan 97-90-92,8%
9. Voronov 96-89-92,7%
10. Chen 82-78-95,1%
11. Kolyada 50-48-96,0%

P.D. I took a look at skatingscores.com, they are doing a very good job but they only have data since 2016-2017 season. The accumulated data, in a few seasons, will be amazing but, for those skaters like Javi with a long history, studies like yours are the only ones available.

 

[Jasya]

98.7%!!!SuperJavi!!!:agree:

 

[tureis]

A few things from recent days:

Javi's athlete profile page is available on the official Olympics website. It's quite long! But I'm sure the 70kg for weight is incorrect. I mean, just look at the size of the guy! He's tiny in every dimension! I think I saw 63kg a few years ago, and he actually looks skinnier these days.

Thy Olympic Channel's video profile on Javi - SuperJavi heavily featured, which kind of makes the whole thing come off as a bit of a joke, but whatever, at least he has one I guess...

Then there's this magazine cover featuring Javi for a sports publication in Spain. At least he was tagged in the tweet so I assume it is Javi, because he was so heavily photoshopped, he is barely recognizable. What were they thinking???

And finally Japan Times posted an article about gold medal projections by Gracenote, a sports analytics company, who project Javi to win gold. That's wonderful to see, if a bit surprising to be honest, because statistically this season hasn't been the best for Javi. But I would take it of course, duh!!!

 

[Mussique]

Oh my, tureis, that magazine cover is certainly... creepy...
Did they paste his face on another dude's body who was looking slightly to the left? Omg.
Thanks for the links!!

I'm also wondering if Japan Times is doing what I usually do when they ask about my predictions for Olys to not jinx my faves

 

[tureis]

Well I don't believe in jinxes so I personally don't have to worry about what I or anyone else might say. I'm nervous enough as it is for Javi during competitions! :hpull:

Right? This cover is horrible! They made him look really bulky and his head looks unnatural in so many ways, it is probably closer to that wax figure.

 

[Jasya]

I'm sure he's less than 70 kg

 

[tureis]

The long-awaited Eurosport feature on Javi will be aired tomorrow, Feb 2nd at 19:15 on Eurosport 2 Spain!!!

Please please please Eurosport, I hope this somehow ends up on youtube, because I'm sure I'm not the only one who has all Eurosport Spain content geoblocked... :sad4:

 

[Olibritt]

And finally Japan Times posted an article about gold medal projections by Gracenote, a sports analytics company, who project Javi to win gold. That's wonderful to see, if a bit surprising to be honest, because statistically this season hasn't been the best for Javi. But I would take it of course, duh!!!

Good to know... I always find it funny when some people forget to include him in the medal contenders. Javi may or may not medal, that's not the point, but he is a solid candidate, that's for sure.
Anyway, about the gold projection, I would be more confident if Paul the octopus had predicted it... What a pity he is not among as anymore!

 

[DelRetiro]

I'm sure he's less than 70 kg

Actually, 70 kg sounds about right. Looking at him standing next to others, the 1m73 definitely sounds right. For a guy that height, slim yet muscular (Javi's legs are pretty thick with muscle, and his upper body, while lean, definitely has some muscle as well), I can see him weighing 70 kg.

 

[Jasya]

Actually, 70 kg sounds about right. Looking at him standing next to others, the 1m73 definitely sounds right. For a guy that height, slim yet muscular (Javi's legs are pretty thick with muscle, and his upper body, while lean, definitely has some muscle as well), I can see him weighing 70 kg.

Maybe but I think that athlete profile contains incorrect information, or old. For example in Kolyada profile wrote that he is 1 m 76! It's above Javi. But we know, that growth Misha is less than the growth Javi (I can say for sure-they stood next to me in the european championship)))

 

[eppen]

Well, the first time I saw Javi live at close range was the small medals in Stockholm 2015. And it really struck me only then how SMALL he is. In pictures and on tv he looks so much bigger than what he really is. The 173 cm height is roughly correct (with shoes on ) - he has stood in front of me on level ground at an arm's length twice and we are about the same height (and I am 170 cm).

But no way can he weigh 70 kg - he is slender and slim and light like a bird... Hanyu's weight is in the PC files is 57 kg and he is about the same height as Javi, Alex Shibutani at 183 cm has weight info at 73 kg. Adam Rippon (170 cm) 66 kg, Aliev (178 cm) 64 kg. So, 70 kg with that midriff that almost of vanishes when he turns sideways, don't think so. Also Deniss Vasiljevs is really not 165 cm tall any more - he was just about taller than me already in Ostrava last year... But funny that Kolyada has his height at 176 because it is almost 10 cm less in reality.

Javi's profile info for ISU/PC also includes Najarro as his choreographer - as far as I know, he has had nothing to do with the current programs. Plus Daniel Peinado as his coach - Javi did work with him about two years ago or so whilst he was in Spain, but I have not seen Peinado in any of the pics etc from Spain (or elsewhere) since then really.

E

PS The mag cover is just horrible - I had to look twice to recognize him! If it is photoshopped, then the "improved" Javi is so much uglier than the real thing.

And PS 2: Olibritt - rink results is far superior to skating scores or the other free score databases for figure skating.

 

[tureis]

Well, the first time I saw Javi live at close range was the small medals in Stockholm 2015. And it really struck me only then how SMALL he is. In pictures and on tv he looks so much bigger than what he really is. The 173 cm height is roughly correct (with shoes on ) - he has stood in front of me on level ground at an arm's length twice and we are about the same height (and I am 170 cm).

But no way can he weigh 70 kg - he is slender and slim and light like a bird... Hanyu's weight is in the PC files is 57 kg and he is about the same height as Javi, Alex Shibutani at 183 cm has weight info at 73 kg. Adam Rippon (170 cm) 66 kg, Aliev (178 cm) 64 kg. So, 70 kg with that midriff that almost of vanishes when he turns sideways, don't think so. Also Deniss Vasiljevs is really not 165 cm tall any more - he was just about taller than me already in Ostrava last year... But funny that Kolyada has his height at 176 because it is almost 10 cm less in reality.

It was my first time seeing Aliev live in Moscow and it was quite a shock that he's actually a big boy! He seemed much smaller to me through TV. He's quite a bit taller than Javi and has a much stronger upper body, and he practically towers over Kolyada. Javi has always been the opposite to me too, comes off as taller and more muscular on TV, and then every time I see him in person I'm amazed by how small and especially how thin he is. Haha and Kolyada being 176 cm is a joke. The guy is basically the same height as me, and I'm 165 cm. He stood right in front of me during the small medal ceremony as I was managing the situation of some people 3 rows behind me trying to get his autograph.