JGP - state of Ladies after four Events

[AlexRus]

JGP - state of Ladies after four and five Events

After 4 of 7 Events we can estimate the situation.

1. Only Ladies of Russia, USA, Japan and Elizabeth Tursynbaeva of Kazakhstan can pretend to JGP Final.

2. No new high-level skaters at remaining three Events, except Proklova and Sotskova of Russia.

3. We see no new names of Russia and USA. And see good International debut of not so young Japanese skaters (Yuka Nagai - 3rd Junior season, Rin Nitaya and Mariko Kihara - 4th Junior season) and young Wakaba Higuchi (1st Junior season). Japanese female skating may have good future.

4. Medvedeva and Sakhanovich won all their Events and qualified to Final. No surprise.
Yuka Nagai has two 2nd places and very good chance to Final.
Rin Nitaya and Wakaba Higuchi also have good chance with their 2nd places.
Chance of Elizabeth Tursynbaeva (3rd place) is moderately good.
Sotskova at Open Moscow (2-5 Sept) demonstrated level enough to earn Final, her chance is good.
State of Proklova is unknown - nobody knows will she be in good state after injury at 6 and 7 JGP Events.
Chance of Karen Chen depend on state of Proklova - if Proklova is good, Karen Chen will meet two Russian leaders, it will be hard to her to have place higher than third.
Chances on Final of all others IMHO are low.

 

[breathesgelatin]

Great analysis.

I agree that Sotskova looked good at the Moscow Open.

I am not completely sure you can count Amber Glenn out. She would probably need Rin Nataya to stumble in Estonia though. I am an Amber Glenn fan though since she is from Texas.

I feel USFSA is taking a risk by putting Chen up against both Sotskova and Proklova. Almost seems like it would be better to send her to Estonia or Germany than Croatia.

But a lot remains to be seen since we haven't seen Proklova since her injury. And she will have a tough schedule skating the last two events.

 

[Chemistry66]

Great analysis.

I agree that Sotskova looked good at the Moscow Open.

I am not completely sure you can count Amber Glenn out. She would probably need Rin Nataya to stumble in Estonia though. I am an Amber Glenn fan though since she is from Texas.

I feel USFSA is taking a risk by putting Chen up against both Sotskova and Proklova. Almost seems like it would be better to send her to Estonia or Germany than Croatia.

But a lot remains to be seen since we haven't seen Proklova since her injury. And she will have a tough schedule skating the last two events.

Maybe they're figuring Chen has the best chance against those two. Putting Amber, who was 12 points behind Karen's score, in the likely easier Estonia could possibly give them more of a chance (though still a small chance if the Russians are at their normal good states) to get girls into the final. However slim Karen's chances are of beating Sotskova/Proklova are, her prospects are better than Amber's at this point.

Also, comparing SBs of Chen/Sotskova/Proklova, you have Proklova 2 points ahead of Chen who is approximated 2 points ahead of Sotskova. It's not entirely out of the box for Karen to do well, though it won't be easy.

 

[FSGMT]

Thank you for this recap, it is always great to take stock of the situation, especially in these chaotic JGPs
Medvedeva and Sakhanovich are obviously the best ones, light years ahead of everyone else, but the Japanese are very good, too, I was incredibly surprised by skaters such as Nagai and Nitaya, to whom I really didn't pay attention during the last seasons... The Americans are the weakest I think: the best ones (Chen and Glenn) both did well in the SP, but didn't really impress me at all in the FS, we'll see if they improve as the season proceeds. Now I'm thrilled about Sotskova and Proklova!!

 

[AlexRus]

I am not completely sure you can count Amber Glenn out. She would probably need Rin Nataya to stumble in Estonia though. I am an Amber Glenn fan though since she is from Texas.

Sotskova, Kaiumova, Rin Nitaya, Miyu Nakashio, Amber Glenn.

Sotskva probably will be first, any of the others listed above may be second. Even Kaiumova - she may skate clean and have good score because of high base value of elements.

Amber has chance to final if she will be second. But chance, not warranty. And to be second is also only chance, no warranty.

I feel USFSA is taking a risk by putting Chen up against both Sotskova and Proklova. Almost seems like it would be better to send her to Estonia or Germany than Croatia.

It gives a chance to two US Ladies in Final if Proklova is in bad state.

In fact there are two absolutely different cases - Proklova good and Proklova bad.

 

[[email protected]]

In fact there are two absolutely different cases - Proklova good and Proklova bad.

And as you seem to know a lot, which scenario, you think, is more realistic?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

Chen beat Proklova last year in the JGP.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat00027994.htm

 

[AlexRus]

And as you seem to know a lot, which scenario, you think, is more realistic?

UPD Latest info.
Bad news for non-Russian Junior Ladies.
Proklova is ready to compete.

 

[AlexRus]

Chen beat Proklova last year in the JGP.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat00027994.htm

I know it of course.

Chen was much stronger skater before her injury than after it.
Will she restore to previous state and if yes, when?
Nobody knows the future.

 

[FSGMT]

Chen beat Proklova last year in the JGP.

http://www.isuresults.com/events/cat00027994.htm

She was actually landing clean 3Lz+3T in the SP and both 3Lz+3T and 2A+3T in the FS back then, now she's not even able to rotate them anymore... Many things depend on what Proklova will be able to show, too, of course

 

[mermaid]

UPD Latest info.
Bad news for non-Russian Junior Ladies.
Proklova is ready to compete.

How do you know it?
Was there any info about her on russian websites? I'm just wondering

 

[AlexRus]

How do you know it?
Was there any info about her on russian websites? I'm just wondering

Private info. You may trust or not.

 

[FSGMT]

UPD Latest info.
Bad news for non-Russian Junior Ladies.
Proklova is ready to compete.

Does "Ready to compete" mean 3-3s?

 

[AlexRus]

Does "Ready to compete" mean 3-3s?

All Russian ladies ready to compete at JGP have 3Lz+3T or 3F+3T.

Iushenko was not ready because she changed coach about a month before her Event. She made 3T+3T (fall, but no UR).

 

[Mrs. P]

Karen might be in better shape in a few weeks, which is why they probably had her in the last event. She did do an 2A-3t at Golden West a few weeks ago and it wasn't bad at her first JGP either.

 

[Alex D]

That's a good summary Alex, thank you for that!

 

[shine]

Private info. You may trust or not.

I really hope you are right! Can't wait to see Sasha's new programs!!

 

[AlexRus]

And state of Ladies after five Events

1. Only Ladies of Russia, USA, Japan and Elizabeth Tursynbaeva of Kazakhstan can pretend to JGP Final (same as after four Events).

2. No new high-level skaters at remaining two Events, except Proklova of Russia.

3. We see no new names of Russia and USA. And see good International debut of not so young Japanese skaters (Yuka Nagai - 3rd Junior season, Rin Nitaya and Mariko Kihara - 4th Junior season) and young Wakaba Higuchi (1st Junior season). Japanese female skating may have good future.

4. Medvedeva and Sakhanovich won all their Events and qualified to Final. No surprise.
Yuka Nagai has two 2nd places and very good chance to Final.
Miyu NAKASHIO - 1 and 4 places, may be at Final.
Wakaba Higuchi and Maria Sotskova also have good chance with their 2nd places. Wakaba Higuchi has score 10 points higher than Maria Sotskova, so better chance.
Chance of Elizabeth Tursynbaeva (3rd place) is moderately good (serious competitors at 6th Event).
Chance of Karen Chen (3rd place) - she has Event with Proklova and Sotskova, about the same score (but worse place) as Sotskova (who of Chen and Sotskova will be ahead at 7th Event - that Lady will be ahead in Total). We will see - 7th Event will be very interesting and unpredictable.
Rin NITAYA - 2 and 4 places, have little chance to Final.
Proklova's state we will see in few days.

Chances on Final of all others IMHO are low.

 

[Totentanz]

I guess we will see Higuchi, Sotskova, Proklova and Nagai qualifying.

JGP Germany
1 - 2. Wakaba Higuchi - qualifies
2 - 1. Alexandra Proklova
3. Elizabet Tursynbaeva
4. Leah Keiser

JGP Croatia
1 - 2. Maria Sotskova - qualifies
2 - 1. Alexandra Proklova - qualifies
3. Karen Chen

So the finalists will be:
1. Sakhanovich
2. Medvedeva
3. Higuchi
4. Sotskova
5. Proklova
6. Nagai

 

[YesWay]

I guess we will see Higuchi, Sotskova, Proklova and Nagai qualifying.

JGP Germany
1 - 2. Wakaba Higuchi - qualifies
2 - 1. Alexandra Proklova
3. Elizabet Tursynbaeva
4. Leah Keiser

JGP Croatia
1 - 2. Maria Sotskova - qualifies
2 - 1. Alexandra Proklova - qualifies
3. Karen Chen

So the finalists will be:
1. Sakhanovich
2. Medvedeva
3. Higuchi
4. Sotskova
5. Proklova
6. Nagai

Seems quite likely.

And Russia probably sweep the junior ladies podium... again...!

(And maybe the 5th year in a row to have two or more Russians on the podium...)