Men OGM Contenders 2018

[xeyra]

In which world?

Because I like to base things on actual results and facts, I went to check things on the Wiki.

Jason's best SP and FS last season, without counting WTT, were: 93.10 (Worlds) and 182.63 (SkA). If you want to cry home inflation from the latter, I'll add in 176.47 from Worlds.

Yuzuru's worst SP and FS last season were 79.65 at SC (or 88.30 at ACI for the other side crying about SC scoring) and 172.27 for the FS (ACI).

So, yes, it's possible. Jason would need to probably catch Yuzuru at the beginning of the season and then be his very best self. But math says it's possible under certain circumstances.

 

[Interspectator]

Because I like to base things on actual results and facts, I went to check things on the Wiki.

Jason's best SP and FS last season, without counting WTT, were: 93.10 (Worlds) and 182.63 (SkA). If you want to cry home inflation from the latter, I'll add in 176.47 from Worlds.

Yuzuru's worst SP and FS last season were 79.65 at SC (or 88.30 at ACI for the other side crying about SC scoring) and 172.27 for the FS (ACI).

So, yes, it's possible. Jason would need to probably catch Yuzuru at the beginning of the season and then be his very best self. But math says it's possible under certain circumstances.

This.
When Yuzu has a REALLY off day, he can be beaten. Just off the top of my head, Maxim Kovtun, Daisuke Murakami, Mura Takahito have beaten Yuzu on an off-day in the last 3 seasons. I just hope it doesn't happen. On the other hand, since this is the thread for speculating and what-ifs, IF Jason can keep his current excellent program quality and finally get that quad in as well, he's going to be a podium threat weather or not others mess up. -If Yuzu is skating well, he'll still be out of reach though.

 

[Skater Boy]

This.
When Yuzu has a REALLY off day, he can be beaten. Just off the top of my head, Maxim Kovtun, Daisuke Murakami, Mura Takahito have beaten Yuzu on an off-day in the last 3 seasons. I just hope it doesn't happen. On the other hand, since this is the thread for speculating and what-ifs, IF Jason can keep his current excellent program quality and finally get that quad in as well, he's going to be a podium threat weather or not others mess up. -If Yuzu is skating well, he'll still be out of reach though.

Hmm, I didn't think Chan had a chance for the bronze let alone OGM without a lot of disasters. so with this logic above then Chan who is still better than Brown in probably all aspect of pcs and clearly better on jump content at least means he should be a threat.

 

[Skater Boy]

tavi : you can say that if you want, some could say the same of jason.

my point is simply that the year that jason did place very close to the podium, after very great clean skates was the year before all the quadster boys arrived... it diminished Jason chances greatly to podium at championships and he is not alone, Patrick hasn't been able to do better than 5th upon his return and he did have 3 quads planned in his FP this year.

I have nothing against Jason, but one thing i don't like is when people throw things like : well he has been 4th in the world.... ... other circumstances... other times.

Yes, Jason was 4th and I have to say a bit lucky inmho. But that was some time ago now before the quad mania took over that made skaters like Ten and Chan no longer so relevant. I wonder what would happen if people like with Chan who said his marks were inflated and then we saw his marks stabilize ortumble and skaters like Hanyu and Fernandez rise and arguably not fairl in contrast to Chan. But if that approach was taken with brown ie his pcs are high but should be lower because it is easier to focus on pcs when you aren't trying tthe big jumps? I wonder what would happen to jason.

 

[yume]

Because I like to base things on actual results and facts, I went to check things on the Wiki.

Jason's best SP and FS last season, without counting WTT, were: 93.10 (Worlds) and 182.63 (SkA). If you want to cry home inflation from the latter, I'll add in 176.47 from Worlds.

Yuzuru's worst SP and FS last season were 79.65 at SC (or 88.30 at ACI for the other side crying about SC scoring) and 172.27 for the FS (ACI).

So, yes, it's possible. Jason would need to probably catch Yuzuru at the beginning of the season and then be his very best self. But math says it's possible under certain circumstances.

So we have to say that in a very very bad day for Hanyu and a very very good day for Brown, Brown can beat Hanyu.
But just "Hanyu and Jin can be outscored by Brown"? lol. Like if Brown could easily get 303 points or 330 points.

 

[xeyra]

So we have to say that in a very very bad day for Hanyu and a very very good day for Brown, Brown can beat Hanyu.
But just "Hanyu and Jin can be outscored by Brown"? lol. Like if Brown could easily get 303 points or 330 points.

Your statement of 'In what world?' prompted me to find out in which circumstances it could happen and technically, Jason CAN outscore Yuzuru and Boyang under certain less ideal circumstances for the latter two. Hence my post, showing it could happen. The original poster's statement was technically not wrong, even though it's really not likely to happen.

 

[sarama]

This discussion has made me realize that I would like way too many people to medal... I guess I have to come to terms with the fact I will be heartbroken no matter what happens. The point is that there is an older crop of skaters who have transformed this sport and are better then ever, and an equally amazing group of quadsters who are pushing the boundaries even further. It's amazing to watch such a high quality field, but at the same time I can't help but feeling sorry that there aren't enough titles and medals for everyone. For example I am not Javi's biggest fan, but for all he has done for the sport, for his country and for saving the dignity of European men skating, I would hate to see him end his career without an Olympic medal.
And I know an Olympic medal is not a career award, but in the public eye it is all that matters.

 

[yume]

Hmm, I didn't think Chan had a chance for the bronze let alone OGM without a lot of disasters. so with this logic above then Chan who is still better than Brown in probably all aspect of pcs and clearly better on jump content at least means he should be a threat.

For me, an absolute clean Chan with 2 quads in the SP and 3 quads in the FS should beat an absolute clean Fernandez
with the same content. And a absolute clean Chan will beat an absolute clean Jin if Jin's PCS don't rise. Chan has already get 100+ in the SP with 1 quad and 200+ in the FS with 2 quads. I think The only serious threat for the bronze medal is Chen if he's clean.

 

[mrrice]

The only predictions I don't enjoy reading are the ones that depend on a skater "Bombing." I chose my contenders based on all the skaters going clean or close to it. If all the skaters have the performance of their dreams.....I still couldn't predict a podium that would make everyone happy. My personal Podium and what I think will happen are 2 different things....I can only say that Patrick is on both of them.

 

[Violet Bliss]

To outscore somebody means they have to compete with each other in the same event, not in convoluted juggling of numbers from different events.

In comparing Chan's and Brown's outscoring chances, in the last season head to head competitions, Chan has beaten Hanyu, Jin, Chen, and, always, Brown. Brown, whose only Senior international medals are won in Skate America, has only beaten Jin in, where else, SA. The chances of Brown doing his absolutely flawless best in both programs on the same ice when Hanyu completely bombs both programs are next to none outside of Hanyu withdrawing or being unable to finish his competition. Brown beating Hanyu with two full programs in a competition has never happened, far far from it, and, in all likelihood, never will.

 

[xeyra]

To outscore somebody means they have to compete with each other in the same event, not in convoluted juggling of numbers from different events.

In comparing Chan's and Brown's outscoring chances, in the last season head to head competitions, Chan has beaten Hanyu, Jin, Chen, and, always, Brown. Brown, whose only Senior international medals are won in Skate America, has only beaten Jin in, where else, SA. The chances of Brown doing his absolutely flawless best in both programs on the same ice when Hanyu completely bombs both programs are next to none outside of Hanyu withdrawing or being unable to finish his competition. Brown beating Hanyu with two full programs in a competition has never happened, far far from it, and, in all likelihood, never will.

I never said it was likely to happen. Just wanted to find out 'in which world' it could happen; and a Jason Brown at his best (269.57 Worlds 2017) could technically score over an early season 'bombing' Yuzuru Hanyu (260.57 at ACI) or a Boyang Jin (267.51 at 4CC), a Patrick Chan (266.75 at GPF), a Javier Fernandez (268.77 GPF), a Shoma Uno (258.93 at Lombardia) or a Nathan Chen (268.91 at NHK) who weren't at their best.

Of course all these scores were with different judges in different circumstances and different periods of the season, so any comparisons aren't really valid, but this wasn't supposed to be taken very seriously.

 

[Violet Bliss]

I never said it was likely to happen. Just wanted to find out 'in which world' it could happen; and a Jason Brown at his best (269.57 Worlds 2017) could technically score over an early season 'bombing' Yuzuru Hanyu (260.57 at ACI) or a Boyang Jin (267.51 at 4CC), a Patrick Chan (266.75 at GPF), a Javier Fernandez (268.77 GPF), a Shoma Uno (258.93 at Lombardia) or a Nathan Chen (268.91 at NHK) who weren't at their best.

Of course all these scores were with different judges in different circumstances and different periods of the season, so any comparisons aren't really valid, but this wasn't supposed to be taken very seriously.

I'd still like to know the name of the world you described.

 

[xeyra]

I'd still like to know the name of the world you described.

Quadtonite

 

[el henry]

I'd still like to know the name of the world you described.

The world of math, logic, and reason where Jason has a great day and Yuzu has a very bad one.

I do not wish a very bad day on any skater, but to say that a skater cannot have a bad day, even Yuzu, or even, gasp, Patrick, is contrary to reason and fact.

And of course, a world where Jason has a five-Toller skate (on my patented Toller scale) is a world of beautiful skating for those who can appreciate it.

 

[Mathman]

I think Nathan Chen has a fair shot at silver and an outside chance for gold. If he improves as much for the coming season as he did last year, he will be right there in the mix.

IMHO Patrick Chan is handicapped by a scoring system that caps PCSs at 10, while automatically giving all serious contenders scores in the nines. (I expect Jin's PCS, for instance, to rise just on general principles next year.)

 

[yume]

I think Nathan Chen has a fair shot at silver and an outside chance for gold. If he improves as much for the coming season as he did last year, he will be right there in the mix.

Sure, with 6 or 7 quads in the FS and 88+ PCS, he'll have a chance for silver or even gold. But Hanyu and Uno Will maybe go for 5 quads, so it's won't be so easy to beat them if they're clean.
Even more if Hanyu have a good lead after the SP. like 5 points.
Maybe it will depend of his consistancy all the season with that content (for the PCS and GOE inflation).

 

[Violet Bliss]

The thing with Nathan is that even he doesn't know ahead exactly how many quads he will attempt at each competition. It's so exhausting to do that great number of quads in a program that he has to be in optimal conditions at the time. If something is a little off physically or mentally that day or even as he is to begin, he knows he can't go for the full agenda. It's therefore always a very late decision. It's also why I think he probably doesn't plan on a long career in the sport. More likely he wants to make his big splash while he's very young and then go on with his life in some other way. Of course we don't know what will happen. He may stay on as an artistic elder statesman.

 

[sarama]

IMHO Patrick Chan is handicapped by a scoring system that caps PCSs at 10, while automatically giving all serious contenders scores in the nines. (I expect Jin's PCS, for instance, to rise just on general principles next year.)

topic:It's not only a problem regarding Patrick. Honestly I am a bit mad that the ISU didn't fix the PCS factorization for the men before heading in the Olympic season. I know they don't like to make big changes before the Olympics, but this would have been an update more than a change: right now the system is flawed for the men, it's simply not coherent with the principle that TES and PCS should have the same weight, and that is the foundation on which the IJS was built. And this problem surfaced even before Sochi with Yuzuru breaking 50 TES in SP and ironically Patrick himself breaking 100 in the FS. Obviously it wasn't necessary back then to fix it, but now it is and the ISU have had a lot of time to think about it so they don't have any excuses: the general public won't notice, still I think it's ridiculous to have the Olympic results determined by a broken system.

 

[mrrice]

I consider Nathan and Mikhail to be the "Upset Specials" of the Games. Though they are both the National Champions of their Countries, I would still consider it an upset if either of them were to medal. The thing is, they both come from strong feds and along with the sometimes forgotten, Kevin Reynolds, should they skate their best, you just never know what's going to happen.

 

[MaiKatze]

I consider Nathan and Mikhail to be the "Upset Specials" of the Games. Though they are both the National Champions of their Countries, I would still consider it an upset if either of them were to medal. The thing is, they both come from strong feds and along with the sometimes forgotten, Kevin Reynolds, should they skate their best, you just never know what's going to happen.

You consider Nathan Chen, the 4C champ in the most competitive 4CC in a long time, and Silver Medalist at the Grand Prix Finale an upset for a medal? Okay then.