Men's prospects after two events

[siberia82]

The fact that you take siberia's "predictions" seriously makes it even more fun

Glad you got a good laugh!

 

[Buttercup]

The fact that you take siberia's "predictions" seriously makes it even more fun

I am not an idiot, and am perfectly capable of understanding the posts on this thread. But I dislike mean-spirited comments, and presenting them as jokes does not make them any more appealing. I have never, in my time posting here, bashed a skater or wished someone ill, "humorously" or otherwise.

Some skaters seem to attract a lot of negativity, and I'd rather not involve myself in that. I think going out there and performing, as we discussed, takes an enermous amount of talent, dedication and guts, which I respect. Since I do not know any skaters personally, I'd rather keep my criticism to on-ice matters.

 

[Eevun]

I am not an idiot, and am perfectly capable of understanding the posts on this thread. But I dislike mean-spirited comments, and presenting them as jokes does not make them any more appealing. I have never, in my time posting here, bashed a skater or wished someone ill, "humorously" or otherwise.

Some skaters seem to attract a lot of negativity, and I'd rather not involve myself in that. I think going out there and performing, as we discussed, takes an enermous amount of talent, dedication and guts, which I respect. Since I do not know any skaters personally, I'd rather keep my criticism to on-ice matters.

I didn't mean to irritate you, I'm sorry. I just thought it very funny, I know you understood the post, I just made a joke. I love Joubert, but I thought siberia's post was very funny too, I don't think it was mean.

 

[Hsuhs]

quadless Canadian skater.

Quadless, axelless, lutzless....

 

[enlight78]

if Ryan is 4th at TEB will he still beat Evan's two bronzes

 

[siberia82]

But I dislike mean-spirited comments, and presenting them as jokes does not make them any more appealing. I have never, in my time posting here, bashed a skater or wished someone ill, "humorously" or otherwise.

I can understand why you might see it that way, but there wasn't any ill will behind my words. Constantly cracking jokes is part of my personality, and it's never my intention to actually belittle another skater. I love Greek mythology, so I was playing around the Skate Gods metaphor.

Anyways, it's not like my sense of humour is ALL bad. I've noticed you appreciated my UFO joke on the TEB prediction thread.

I love Joubert, but I thought siberia's post was very funny too, I don't think it was mean.

I'm relieved that you understood I was only being silly, especially considering that you're a Joubert fan.

Quadless, axelless, lutzless....

Okay, so Patrick was 3-Axel-less at SC, but he did have one clean 3-lutz in both the short and the long. Oh man, I can't imagine how FURIOUS Brian would be if Patrick was placed ahead of him at TEB without a clean 3-Axel!

 

[Buttercup]

I can understand why you might see it that way, but there wasn't any ill will behind my words. Constantly cracking jokes is part of my personality, and it's never my intention to actually belittle another skater. I love Greek mythology, so I was playing around the Skate Gods metaphor.

Fair enough, thanks for clarifying. Two skaters whom I like, Joubert and Kostner, seem to generate a lot of negativity on these boards, and it just annoys me. You'd think Brian has some diabolical plan to drive all the quadless guys out of skating, while Caro personally bribes the judges at every event she enters.

BTW, the football gods punish teams that keep throwing even if they have a huge second-half lead, and those who keep the starters in the game in the same situation. But I don't think there's a parallel in skating that would require such divine intervention.

Okay, so Patrick was 3-Axel-less at SC, but he did have one clean 3-lutz in both the short and the long. Oh man, I can't imagine how FURIOUS Brian would be if Patrick was placed ahead of him at TEB without a clean 3-Axel!

Chan didn't even do a triple lutz in combination. If he were to win without a quad or a 3A, it would be a sad competition indeed. The level of skating from the top guys would have to be pretty lame for that to happen.

 

[siberia82]

Fair enough, thanks for clarifying. Two skaters whom I like, Joubert and Kostner, seem to generate a lot of negativity on these boards, and it just annoys me. You'd think Brian has some diabolical plan to drive all the quadless guys out of skating, while Caro personally bribes the judges at every event she enters.

My knowledge of the other disciplines is limited, but even *I* could pick up that there was plenty of Kostner-bashing going on (I see it on FSU as well). I'm sure we both agree that in her case, people are unfairly criticizing her when in fact it's the system that's to blame.

I'll admit that I did lose some respect for Joubert when he made those comments about Buttle, but I still understand that ALL skaters should be admired for what they do. I can't even do public speaking without falling apart, let alone perform a difficult, jam-packed figure skating routine in front of thousands of people while at the same time being evaluated for something which could make or break my career.

As a natural "comedienne", though, I do find that there's something intrinsically humourous about Brian's temper.

BTW, the football gods punish teams that keep throwing even if they have a huge second-half lead, and those who keep the starters in the game in the same situation. But I don't think there's a parallel in skating that would require such divine intervention.

I don't know anything about football, but that is an interesting observation.

Chan didn't even do a triple lutz in combination. If he were to win without a quad or a 3A, it would be a sad competition indeed. The level of skating from the top guys would have to be pretty lame for that to happen.

True, I actually wouldn't want a repeat of the almost-splatfest I witnessed in person at SC (Sawyer, Bradley and Ten being the only exceptions). I'm Canadian, so of course I was rooting for Chan, but his LP did leave a knot in my stomach. Patrick himself stated in a brief interview on CBC that he didn't believe he deserved to win the event, so I know he'll work hard to bring his big ticket jumps to Paris.

He's a tender 17 years of age (it's very easy to forget that when he skates!) and is still in high school. He's not even a full-time athlete yet, but I think he's doing very well for himself.

Just curious; is Chan the youngest male skater to win a GP event? He was only 16 when he captured the TEB title last year.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

There are 3 more GPs to go to tally out the GPFinals. I have figured out the magic number to be 26. Lysacek made 22 - not enough Takahashi, Oda and v.d Perren with only one scoring event will not make it.

Those gold and silver medalists from 1 GP are Kozuka, Chan, Abbott, Weir, Bradley, Cariere, all have a good shot to make 26 points.

Skaters who have 2 GPs to make gold or silver are Joubert and Preaubert.

We have from those listed above 8 skaters for the remaining 6 gold and silver medals

Results will be for me, just luck - not special.

 

[bekalc]

My knowledge of the other disciplines is limited, but even *I* could pick up that there was plenty of Kostner-bashing going on (I see it on FSU as well). I'm sure we both agree that in her case, people are unfairly criticizing her when in fact it's the system that's to blame.

I'll admit that I did lose some respect for Joubert when he made those comments about Buttle, but I still understand that ALL skaters should be admired for what they do. I can't even do public speaking without falling apart, let alone perform a difficult, jam-packed figure skating routine in front of thousands of people while at the same time being evaluated for something that could make or break my career.

As a natural "comedienne", though, I do find that there's something intrinsically humourous about Brian's temper.

I don't think most people are blaming Carolina. Most people are angry at the judges, but they realize that it's not Kostner's fault personally.

In the case of Joubert, from what I've understood the only skaters that were happy with the Quadless guy winning were the guys why didn't have quads. Lambiel, (and some say Daisuke) Plushenko were all extremely unhappy with Buttle winning because he didn't have a quad.

Considering that the ISU raised the difficulty of the quad in response, I think it's really safe to say that quite a lot of people agreed with what Joubert was saying. Joubert was just the only one with the guts to say it.

 

[Bennett]

In the case of Joubert, from what I've understood the only skaters that were happy with the Quadless guy winning were the guys why didn't have quads. Lambiel, (and some say Daisuke) Plushenko were all extremely unhappy with Buttle winning because he didn't have a quad.

Considering that the ISU raised the difficulty of the quad in response, I think it's really safe to say that quite a lot of people agreed with what Joubert was saying. Joubert was just the only one with the guts to say it.

A quad is really helpful only when they excute the other elements and perform the program well. But when they fail in other elements or even in quads, I do not think that they have anything to be extremely unhappy with a clean, quadless winner, instead of being extremely unhappy with their own performances.

The ISU also raised the penalty for failed quad attempts, which I think was a balanced decision.

 

[Wrlmy]

Lambiel, (and some say Daisuke) Plushenko were all extremely unhappy with Buttle winning because he didn't have a quad.

Considering that the ISU raised the difficulty of the quad in response, I think it's really safe to say that quite a lot of people agreed with what Joubert was saying. Joubert was just the only one with the guts to say it.

I don't think I heard any of that. Especially Daisuke. He is very humble and appreciative of other skaters, which you can see that in any of his interviews. I wouldn't be surprised if Plushenko was displeased though.
Others have pointed this out so many times, but let me say this again. Joubert had only himself to blame. It doesn't matter that he landed one quad when he did a lousy 2a-1t combo while Jeffrey landed 8 superb triples with the most difficult spins and transitions.

 

[Buttercup]

He's a tender 17 years of age (it's very easy to forget that when he skates!) and is still in high school. He's not even a full-time athlete yet, but I think he's doing very well for himself.

Just curious; is Chan the youngest male skater to win a GP event? He was only 16 when he captured the TEB title last year.

Based on Wikipedia research only: Chan turns 18 on the last day of the year. Plushenko won Skate Canada and NHK in 1998; SC started a few days after he'd turned 16. He also won the European Championship at 16, two months later. Before he'd turned 18, he had won two European titles, a World championship, the GPF and a bunch of GPs. At 18 he swept the 2000-2001 season. Plush was very precocious .

Of the current bunch, I'm pretty sure the closest is Joubert, who won Skate America in 2002 about a month after his 18th birthday (this would be the year Yagudin withdrew after the short and then retired ). Yagudin, BTW, won CoR and Trophee Lalique (now TEB) in 1997, at the age of 17. He also won Euros and Worlds later that season.

I don't think I heard any of that. Especially Daisuke. He is very humble and appreciative of other skaters, which you can see that in any of his interviews. I wouldn't be surprised if Plushenko was displeased though.

I haven't hear of any of that either, but I wouldn't try to guess what any of them think of the matter. I'm not familiar with Japanese culture, but would it Takahashi feel comfortable being critical of other skaters or the judging?

Considering that the ISU raised the difficulty of the quad in response, I think it's really safe to say that quite a lot of people agreed with what Joubert was saying. Joubert was just the only one with the guts to say it.

I disliked the timing of his comments, but I agree - skaters should feel free to criticize things in the system they think don't work. That's what Joubert did, and what Weir has expressed re other aspects of CoP. I appreciate their voicing their opinions.

 

[Bennett]

I haven't hear of any of that either, but I wouldn't try to guess what any of them think of the matter. I'm not familiar with Japanese culture, but would it Takahashi feel comfortable being critical of other skaters or the judging?

I have no idea what Dai was feeling re this particular issue. But I have had a similar impression with Wrlmy's observations. E.g., when Dai lost to Lambiel who appeared to have had more mistakes than Dai at GPF, he made a very humble comment. Sorry I do not remember what he said, but he said something about his own skating and never said anything to imply that he should have won etc. Re his attitudes to other skaters, I also have a similar impression with Wrlmy's observations that he is very appreciative of other skaters. Dai said that he was a fan of Lambiel. He also said that he would have to mentally prepare for all the cheerings for Jeff when he'd skate after him because Jeff was very popular wherever he went. I also read that he would study and appreciate strengths in much lower-level skaters.
That said, I do not know if these are due to cultural norms or his innate personality. Please also let me just repeat that I have no idea what he was thinking on this particular matter or would try to guess.

 

[Buttercup]

I also have a similar impression with Wrlmy's observations that he is very appreciative of other skaters. Dai said that he was a fan of Lambiel.

Leaving aside the rest of it, I don't think I've ever heard of any skater who doesn't say nice things about at least some of his/her competitors. Joubert, in interviews, has been complimentary about Johnny Weir, Buttle, Preaubert and Ponsero, Sandhu (when he was still skating), Dai and Tomas Verner, among others. Johnny Weir, who's certainly never shied away from speaking his mind, has made positive comments about Lambiel, Buttle, Verner, Joubert, and even, on occasion, Evan Lysacek .

So I still wonder if the difference is that some skaters are more likely to criticize as well as compliment, while others are more of the "if you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all" school. I have no trouble with either approach - it's just a different personal style - but I don't think true sportsmanship requires one to always be positive and/or humble as some (not you) seem to suggest. Athletes are not robots, and they shouldn't be required to turn off their personality or censor their thoughts.

(Note: By this I am not suggesting that Daisuke Takahashi is a robot, that he has no personality, or that he is supporitve of any form of censorship).

 

[Bennett]

Leaving aside the rest of it, I don't think I've ever heard of any skater who doesn't say nice things about at least some of his/her competitors. Joubert, in interviews, has been complimentary about Johnny Weir, Buttle, Preaubert and Ponsero, Sandhu (when he was still skating), Dai and Tomas Verner, among others. Johnny Weir, who's certainly never shied away from speaking his mind, has made positive comments about Lambiel, Buttle, Verner, Joubert, and even, on occasion, Evan Lysacek .

So I still wonder if the difference is that some skaters are more likely to criticize as well as compliment, while others are more of the "if you don't have something nice to say, don't say anything at all" school. I have no trouble with either approach - it's just a different personal style - but I don't think true sportsmanship requires one to always be positive and/or humble as some (not you) seem to suggest. Athletes are not robots, and they shouldn't be required to turn off their personality or censor their thoughts.

(Note: By this I am not suggesting that Daisuke Takahashi is a robot, that he has no personality, or that he is supporitve of any form of censorship).

I agree. Joubert's comments (either positive or negative) often come across as adorable to me because he seems so honest and kind of naive. But for their self-protection, I think it wiser for them to think of the timing, contexts, and the ways their comments might be reported. Dealing with the media involves a lot of risks of their images being undermined due to miscommunications and misunderstandings.

Going back to the thread topic, I would enjoy any finalists regardless of quads as long as they skate well.

Right now, my early prediction after three events is:

Jourbert, Jeremy, Tomas/Stephane, Patrick, Johnny, and Kozuka.

Although Joubert has not skated yet, he should be at GPF if he does decently well in the coming comps. Jeremy, Patrick, and Kozuka already won Gold and seem likely to do well at the next events as well. Johnny won Silver and he seems to have a good chance at NHK. Although Ryan also got Silver, his next event at TEB seems like a hard one and it may be difficult for him to medal there. Although Tomas won only Bronze, he still has a chance at CoR unless he bombs again. Stephane also has a chance because NHK may become a relatively weak field if Dai withdraws.

 

[Buttercup]

Bennett, I think I should follow your lead and get back on topic myself... . So, some thoughts:

* Brian Joubert should make it, assuming he skates competently (or better, I hope!). The question is whether or not his confidence was shaken by the second-place finish at the French Masters. If it was, he might struggle. TEB should be OK for him even if he's not in top form, but CoR has a very deep field. I really hope he'll stay healthy and skate well.

* Stephen Carriere (Stephane has retired, of course ) would probably need another medal, preferrably silver or higher. Even if Takahashi doesn't compete at NHK (any news on his knee?), there's still Oda, Weir, Reynolds and possibly Ponsero to contend with. At the very least I would say that Oda and Weir should finish ahead of Stephen. Why was Oda only assigned to NHK? Is he still in trouble with his federation?

* Jeremy Abbott is a wild card. Which Jeremy will show up in CoR? Can he come within striking distance of his CoC score? If not, he could be in trouble, having to face off against Joubert, Verner, Voronov, Preaubert, and KvdP. All of them have higher PBs than he did until Saturday.

* Patrick Chan is in the same boat, but TEB, on paper, does not look to have as strong a field. A fourth place would likely be enough to qualify him for GPF, and I find it difficult to believe he'll drop below that. But he will probably need a better LP than he had at SC to succeed, both at TEB and later in the season.

* Tomas Verner has the talent and the programs - but will he show up mentally?

* Kozuka, I think, will make it.

Of course, with three of last year's finalists already out and craziness in the first three events, all bets are off.

 

[Okami]

At the very least I would say that Oda and Weir should finish ahead of Stephen. Why was Oda only assigned to NHK? Is he still in trouble with his federation?

Nobunari followed the Japanese custom of self-implied punishment and withdrew from Japanese Nationals (quoting mental distress as reason), therefore rendering himself ineligible for the international assignments, losing ISU points and World ranking. Because of that he is not eligible for GP assignments this season, because he was not on the ISUs top 24*, nor on the top season best list. The only assignment he could get was NHK, because there JSF could invite any skater they wanted (they choose Nobunari and Akiko).

JSF, or should I say chairman Hidehito Ito, tried to force Nobunari into competing at Nationals, because they were afraid they'll lose 3 spots at Worlds. The chairman kept on insisting for 3 weeks, up to the day before the Men's SP. It should be mentioned that some JSF members said to press that they disagree with Nobu's treatment by the chairman (both the bashing and forcing to compete), but they did so anonymously, apparently afraid of repercussions.

*After winning Nebelhorn and KSM he's back in the top 24, but it's too late to get a 2nd assignment.

Even if Takahashi doesn't compete at NHK (any news on his knee?)

Sadly not, although I expected news about his medical checkup a few days ago.

Stephen Carriere (Stephane has retired, of course ) would probably need another medal, preferrably silver or higher. Even if Takahashi doesn't compete at NHK (...) there's still Oda, Weir, Reynolds and possibly Ponsero to contend with.

I expect that Takahito Mura will contend for the medal as well. He had two very strong showings at Finlandia Trophy and West Japan Regionals. He has great, poweful jumps and great 3A-3T combo. He lands two 3A in his LP. He has great, crowd-pleasing choreo as well.

 

[Bennett]

If Oda medals at NHK (which is very likely), I wonder how his placement may affect the other medalists in their chances of going to GPF.

ETA: Thanks for your correction, Buttercup. Stephen, but not Stephane.

 

[Hsuhs]

That said, I do not know if these are due to cultural norms or his innate personality.

It depends on how one wants to look at it, IMO.
Daisuke also said nothing but nice things about Nikolai Morozov after the break up earlier this year. I believe this makes him unique among Morozov's other former students.

I expect that Takahito Mura will contend for the medal as well.

Me too. He's good!