Of top men who will be odd one out for GP final?

[slutskayafan21]

Shandu has a quad... well sometimes. and a couple of other guys are capable of it!

Sandhu isnt going to be winning any big events though. Last years Worlds was probably his best competition ever at a World/Olympic event and he still was beaten by both Lysacek and Oda for the bronze.

 

[Jaana]

As a skating fan I always feel very enthusiastic as the senior GP is starting. And I´m also eager to read how the skaters fare in the events, which of them are standing on the podium and about the skaters that qualify for the GPF. During many years with veeeery few exceptions the best skaters have always participated in GP events and the best of them are qualifying for the GPF.

GP events are a great possibility for many skaters to test their new programmes and make some changes in them, if needed. The feedback coming from judges is very valuable for skaters.

It will be a tough competition which six skaters will qualify for the GPF and in men I see the following skaters as possibilities:

Lambiel His second event is NHK and I´m sure that he will get there the needed points

Lysacek The second event is Cup of China and that event will ensure his participation

Oda Ditto (NHK)

Takahashi Ditto (NHK)

Joubert He will participate in FRA and I think that he will stand on the podium there as well as in RUS

Weir He will need to stand on the RUS podium, will he manage that?

Or

Sandhu He may stand on the podium in Cup of China, but the RUS event remains to be seen...

 

[slutskayafan21]

Well here is how I see it:

Lambiel: even if he is only 3rd at NHK(and I expect he will be better then that and probably win)he will make it with 12(first) + 7(third) = 19

Oda: even if he is only 3rd at NHK he will make it with 12(first) = 7(third) = 19

Lysacek: even if he is only 2nd at Cup of China(and I expect him to win there)he will almost certainly make it with 9(second) + 9(second). Takahashi would have to win NHK to have more points and qualify over directly, very unlikely with Lambiel and the more consistent Oda both in that field, and if he somehow comes 2nd(I would guess 3rd personaly) then it would tie Lysacek's points, but the tiebreak is points totals and Lysacek has a big edge based on his SA point totals vs Takahashi's SC point totals. Lysacek is too consistent for Takahashi to make up the 13 points total or so deficit likely, and Takahashi is not likely to win NHK either. Weir who was 3rd at Skate Canada would have to win Cup of Russia over both Joubert and Sandhu to surpass Lysacek's points if Lysacek finished 2nd behind Sandhu at Cup of China. That combination of events is not even too likely, but more conceivable then the Takahashi/Lysacek ones.

Joubert-weak field in Trophee Bombard. Will almost certainly win that, and then even if he finished 3rd at Cup of Russia behind both Weir and Sandhu, will get the points 12(first) + 7(third) = 19 to make it.



The questionable ones I think:

Weir-Has to win Cup of Russia to secure making it. If he is 2nd at Cup of Russia needs Sandhu to be no higher then 2nd behind Lysacek at Cup of China, and be 3rd behind him at Cup of Russia, and then hope his combined points totals from Skate Canada and Cup of Russia beat Sandhu's combined point totals from Cup of China and Cup of Russia to edge him out of one of the final spots. If that is not the case then with 2nd at Cup of Russia would need Takahashi to be only 3rd at NHK, and his point totals combined from Skate Canada and Cup of Russia to beat Takahashi's from Skate Canada and NHK, being about 10 points behind Takahashi already after Skate Canada. If he is 3rd at the Cup of Russia almost no chance of making it unless there is a big upset with someone over one of these guys at one of their events.

Takahashi-Even 2nd at NHK does not make him safe, with that if Weir wins Cup of Russia he ends up below him by 1 point, but if Weir does not win Cup of Russia he automaticaly would be in over him if he were 2nd at NHK. If Joubert wins Eric Bompard which he is almost certain to and then only comes 3rd at Cup of Russia he still beats Takahashi by 1 point if Takahashi is 2nd at NHK. Lysacek even with only a 2nd at Cup of China, would beat Takahashi out of a spot in the final then unless Takahashi makes up 13 points around with his scores at NHK vs Lysacek at Cup of China. If Sandhu beat Lysacek to win Cup of China, then even if he only places 3rd at Cup of Russia behind both Joubert and Weir, he would beat Takahashi by 1 point if Takahashi were 2nd at NHK. If Sandhu is only 2nd at Cup of China and 3rd at Cup of China, Takahashi would automaticaly edge him out with a 2nd at NHK. If Sandhu is 2nd at Cup of China, and 2nd at Cup of Russia, and Takahashi 2nd at NHK, they would be tied and it would come down to point totals. If Sandhu is 2nd at Cup of China, and 3rd at Cup of Russia, and Takahshi is 3rd at NHK, they would again be tied and it would come down to point totals. If Takahashi is only 3rd at NHK he would still make it automaticaly if Weir is 3rd at Cup of Russia, and if Weir were 2nd at Cup of Russia between them it would come down to point totals, with Takahashi already a 10 point or so edge. If Takahashi wins NHK, which I highly doubt he does, he would be safe.


I think Weir might be the one to be squeezed out, but then again I think Weir has a better shot of a higher finish at Cup of Russia vs Joubert and Sandhu, then Takahashi does at NHK vs Lambiel and Oda who are probably the 2 guys to beat right now. Sandhu could easily be the 1 out as I could see him losing to Lysacek at Cup of China, and both Joubert and Weir at Cup of Russia quite easily. It will be 1 of Weir, Takahashi, or Sandhu who does not make it though.

Lambiel, Oda, Lysacek, and Joubert look pretty safe to me.

 

[antmanb]

Stephane's short program is up on youtube, and it was actually much better than what I was expecting; he sells the program as much as he always does, except the jumps are not there.
I wonder how he'd do if he stopped training the quad this year? He gets high levels on non-jump elements, and scored 146--very high--having touched down on one quad and fallen on another. He could always go back to the quad closer to 2010, but for now, maybe leaving it out could help him last till Vancouver.

I think Lambiel needs to keep the quad - it is more consistent than his triple axel he needs at least one of the big jumps to remain in contention. If he ditched the quad for this season it would be even harder to get back in time for the Olympics and his programs would be down two quads on last season and he'd have to rely on teh triple axel being there every time. Given the two quads he had in his LP then he'd need at least two triple axels to contend with the others. Don't forget joubert has both a quad toe and quad sal in his LP at the mo and is loking to add a third.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

But if he wants to win the Olympics, couldn't he make a conscious decision that it isn't as important to win Worlds every year between now and then? He could get good scores--not winning scores, but good scores with improvements in non-jump areas, and stick around, and get a rest from training the harder jumps for awhile.

I don't see why he should be expected to win Worlds every year doing all these quads--people can see that he's been injured, but the expectations are still there. He doesn't necessarily have to be forced into premature retirement because of people's expectations--he could come in fourth at Worlds, train the quad only during the Olympic season when he needs it most, and possibly win.

The way it is now, it seems like when injury really has caught up with him, it will shock most people, and he'll be out of favor with public opinion. Plus, if he injures himself badly, he won't have many options to skate as a professional.

That might be the case but then you only have to look to Michelle Kwan to see that when the body finally gives out, it really does, and it doesn't matter whether you looked after yourself, scaled back your competitions, scaled back your jumps. You might do all of those things and find your body failing you at the first practice at the Olympics. Strategies are just that. Maybe Stephane realises that hthe liklihood of his knees baring up until Vancouver is unlikely so he'll carry on cranking out the jumps and might end up with another world title(s).

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Alot of his close competitors do not have a quad so he would have all the same jumps they have if he took out the quad. I think he could just as well as he does now by taking out the quad and just doing all the triples, resting his knees, and focusing more on maximizing his spin levels, perfecting the program and footwork and other jumps even more. Weir, Lysacek, Buttle, Takahashi, and Oda dont do quads much or ever, he can score as high as them in any other areas. Joubert is the only one and he fails in competition mostly in the last 2 years anyway. So I think he can win without the quad against the current field. None of them do quads either except the unpredictable Joubert.

So we know exactly the problems he has with his kness and if its both or one? It may be that the quad is easier on his body than a triple axel if it is his left knee. It could be that both jumps are equally as bad if its his landing knee...?

Ant

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

There is pressure on the forward outside edge for the axel which is the take-off edge. The knee for the take off must be strong.

There is much less pressure on the backoutside edge for the toe loop on the knee, and there is an assist with the toe off. However, there is pressure on the hip.

Joe

 

[debdelilah]

http://www.stephanelambiel.ch/news/e-news.html

The March 17th entry says "he injured his right knee again". So it's the landing knee.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

http://www.stephanelambiel.ch/news/e-news.html

The March 17th entry says "he injured his right knee again". So it's the landing knee.

If that is true, then I'm afraid Stephane has a technique problem. That's fixable so why hasn't it been? Much easier to air rotate 3-1/2 turns than 4.

However, it could be the preparation right foot preventing him from making a smooth left foot takeoff.

Well, he should know that fans demand a 3A or he's not a competitor. Quads mean little in his case. so we'll see if it is fixable or not.

Joe

 

[antmanb]

If that is true, then I'm afraid Stephane has a technique problem. That's fixable so why hasn't it been? Much easier to air rotate 3-1/2 turns than 4.

However, it could be the preparation right foot preventing him from making a smooth left foot takeoff.

Well, he should know that fans demand a 3A or he's not a competitor. Quads mean little in his case. so we'll see if it is fixable or not.

Joe

BUt looking at Lambiel's technique on the triple axel - it looks pretty good to me. Usually with a clean lift off the LFO edge and a good kick through with the right leg. Other skaters with ropier technique seem to have more success (Joubert comes to mind) which makes me think its a psychological block with the axel more than anything.

Unless its an edge jump versus toe jump thing for Lambiel. I don't follow him enough to be sure but he can pretty much tacka triple toe onto the back of anything. Perhaps its just as simple as the toe loop is his best/easiest jump so the quad is easier than the triple axel for him?

Either way a gammy landing knee does not make for a much longer career.

Ant

 

[Zuranthium]

Perhaps its just as simple as the toe loop is his best/easiest jump so the quad is easier than the triple axel for him?

I definitely think that's the case. Remember, Lambiel is a GREAT spinner. The toeloop is the easiest jump to get revolutions with because it aligns the body most accessibily into a spinning position in the air.

 

[antmanb]

I definitely think that's the case. Remember, Lambiel is a GREAT spinner. The toeloop is the easiest jump to get revolutions with because it aligns the body most accessibily into a spinning position in the air.

I don't know about that - the loop is the jump that most mimmicks a spin - loop and backspin seem to go hand in hand - the loop is a jumped backspin.

Ant

 

[chuckm]

If a skater has a bum knee (and Lambiel has had surgery on his right knee twice) the rest of the body tries to compensate for the weakness in the knee. What we've seen with Plushenko is groin injury and eventually a double hernia. Sometimes it is the hip or the ankle that suffers, or even the opposite knee.

Continuing to push the limits of an injury can cause further injury.

 

[Zuranthium]

I don't know about that - the loop is the jump that most mimmicks a spin - loop and backspin seem to go hand in hand - the loop is a jumped backspin.

Ant

The loop doesn't give you a free foot to work with in order to start the revolutions. That toepick really helps to pull you into the spin for a toeloop.

 

[Mathman]

Well here is how I see it:

Lambiel: even if he is only 3rd at NHK (and I expect he will be better then that and probably win)he will make it with 12(first) + 7(third) = 19.

The new rules this year give 15 points for first, 13 for second, then 11, 9, 7, 5, 4, 3 for eighth. First tie breaker is 1st and 3rd beats two 2nds, etc.

 

[antmanb]

The loop doesn't give you a free foot to work with in order to start the revolutions. That toepick really helps to pull you into the spin for a toeloop.

But it still involves a weight transfer from picking foot to landing foot which the loop doesn't - you set up in backspin position jump in it and land in it.

Ant

 

[slutskayafan21]

The new rules this year give 15 points for first, 13 for second, then 11, 9, 7, 5, 4, 3 for eighth. First tie breaker is 1st and 3rd beats two 2nds, etc.

Ok thanks. Still a 1st and 3rd beats out 2 2nds though. So guys that have already won a GP event like Oda and Lambiel can come 3rd at NHK and still will be safe.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

But it still involves a weight transfer from picking foot to landing foot which the loop doesn't - you set up in backspin position jump in it and land in it.Ant

What about the forward loop position that sets up the axel. Not easy and that seems to be Stephane's nemisis at the moment.

SFfan - 3rd Place isn't a given. You have to earn it.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

What about the forward loop position that sets up the axel. Not easy and that seems to be Stephane's nemisis at the moment.

SFfan - 3rd Place isn't a given. You have to earn it.

Joe

Oda and Lambiel at their worst probably are 3rd at NHK, I dont see who else there is any thread except Takahashi. I mean barring something unforseen. Those 7 I mentioned seem so far ahead of the other guys at the moment any of them losing to somebody outside that group of 7 would be something unforseen IMO.

The competitions Lambiel, Weir, and Takahashi had at Skate Canada and still filling out the podium as expected just further illustrates that to me. Of course I could be shown wrong to have had that perspective but it is how I feel now.

 

[antmanb]

What about the forward loop position that sets up the axel. Not easy and that seems to be Stephane's nemisis at the moment.
Joe

That involes a weight transfer and you don't start out in the backspin position. Plus its just a notoriously difficult jump, and like i've said already, i don't think there's anything wrong with stephane's technique on the jump i think it all psychological.

Ant