Predictions (and Other Thoughts)

[ImaginaryPogue]

Men
1. Daisuke Takahashi
2. Adam Rippon
3. Nobunari Oda
4. Shawn Sawyer
5. Kevin van de Perren

A fairly unimpressive line-up. Little startled that Skate America went for Rippon instead of Abbott, but it'll be interesting to see if Rippon can repeat his Japan Open triumph over Takahashi. I doubt it. I assume hometown boost will give Rippon a bit of a leap over Oda. Just guessing with the other two.

Ladies
1. Rachael Flatt
2. Carolina Kostner
3. Kanako Murakami
4. Caroline Zhang
5. (tie) Joshi Helgelsson and Viktoria Helgesson

I assume Kwak will suffer from the travel. I'm predicting a tie cause it's fun. LaCoste will probably be fifth, but that's less fun.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
3. Sui/Han
4. Denney/Barrett
5. Stoblova/Klimov

The juniors are coming (Zhang/Toth are the ones I like the most, but of course, jun-to-sen. don't count). The new rules favour Sui/Han who'll get sky high TES regardless of what they do simply because they stack their programs the way they do and go for the harder elements in the first place. I'm thinking they suffer due to travelling (when in doubt, predict jet-lag!).

Dance
1. Davis/White
2. Crone/Poirier
3. Weaver/Poje
4. Shibutani/Shibutani
5. Reed/Reed

Totally hopedicting with W/P vs Shibs. I'm really hoping that W/P are able to make it to the GPF, and the only way they will is if they medal here. I don't think they'll be able to catch C/P - they're just ahead technically. I can rationalize it (W/P have more to improve on than the Shibs in terms of levels and were ahead in PCS at NHK, hometown judging spent on reaffirming D/W's place at the top).

 

[blue_idealist]

Men: Takahashi and then Oda and Rippon in some order after that. I want Shawn Sawyer to medal, but with those three there, I doubt it. Maybe he can get 4th, or someone will implode? I feel mean for saying the second thing, haha, but you never know, I don't think many people expected Lacoste to come in 3rd at Skate Canada and Phaneuf not to medal at all.

Ladies: Flatt, Kostner, Murakami. Same people on the podium as NHK. Lacoste could sneak in there again, but I'm not holding my breath. She's not that consistent.. although neither is Murakami.. or Kostner for that matter. That's why I chose Flatt as my guess for winner.

Pairs: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Denney/Barrett, and then either Moore-Towers/Moscovitch or Sui/Han.

Dance: Davis/White, Crone/Poirier, Weaver/Poje. The Shibutanis could displace either of the Canadian teams, though, and I've never seen this Russian team who's on the list so I have no idea where they might place.

Side note: The depth of ice dance in Canada now is almost scary! It just hit me when I was predicting two Canadian teams for the podium, and that doesn't even include Tessa and Scott!

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

My dream podiums:

Ladies
1. Carolina Kostner
2. Elene Gedevanishvili
3. Kanako Murakami

Men
1. Nobunari Oda
2. Daisuke Takahashi
3. Adam Rippon

Pairs
1. Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy
2. Caydee Denney & Jeremy Barrett
3. Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov

Ice Dance
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White
2. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier
3. Maia Shibutani & Alex Shibutani

 

[fairly4]

Ladies
1) rachel flatt
2) carolina kostner
3) either between Amelie LaCoste or Kanako Murakami
outside chance at bronze medal
Caroline Zhang
Elene Gendevanishili
Victoria Helgessen

Dance
1) davis/white
2) crone/poirier
3)shibutanis, russian team riazchenko and t/ sorry about misspelled and weaver/poje
will do others later

 

[taaak]

Ladies
1. Rachael Flatt
2. Kanako murakami
3. Elene Gedevanishvili
4. Carolina Kostner
5. Caroline Zhang

Men
1. Daisuke Takahashi
2. Adam Rippon
3. Nobunari Oda

Pairs
1. Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy
2. Caydee Denney & Jeremy Barrett
3. Ksenia Stolbova & Fedor Klimov

Ice Dance
1. Meryl Davis & Charlie White
2. Maia Shibutani & Alex Shibutani
3. Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier

 

[fairly4]

Pairs
1)Savchenko/Szolkowy
2nd probably Moore-towers/moschovitch
3rd between Denny/Barrett --Sui/Han and Stolbova and Klimova
outside shot--castelli/shnapir

Men
1)Daisuke Takahashi
2)Adam Rippon
3)Nobunari ODa
with outside shots at medals Shawn Sawyer, Kevin Van Der Perren and Stephane Carrier and Armin Mahnoozbaheh and Adrian SHultheiss

 

[siberia82]

Has anyone else noticed that 5 of the men's singles skaters have already competed against each other at NHK (Takahashi, Sawyer, Schultheiss, Van Der Perren, Denis Ten)?

My prediction for the men's event:
1. Takahashi
2. Oda
3. Rippon

I expect Sawyer to make the Top 5.

 

[babayaga]

^ And six same ladies too (Gedevaneshvili, McCorkell, Kostner, Murakami, Flatt, Zhang)

 

[prettykeys]

Men
1. Takahashi
2. Oda
3. Rippon

Ladies
1. Flatt
2. Murakami
3. Kostner

Pairs
1. S/S

 

[silverlake22]

I'm just going to predict the whole event for men and ladiezzz

Ladies:
1 Kanako MURAKAMI
2 Rachael FLATT
3 Carolina KOSTNER
4 Amelie LACOSTE
5 Caroline ZHANG
6 Viktoria HELGESSON
7 Min-Jeong KWAK
8 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI
9 Joshi HELGESSON
10 Alexe GILLES
11 Mae Berenice MEITE
12 Jenna MCCORKELL

Men:
1 Daisuke TAKAHASHI
2 Adam RIPPON
3 Nobunari ODA
4 Denis TEN
5 Shawn SAWYER
6 Daisuke MURAKAMI
7 Adrian SCHULTHEISS
8 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH
9 Kevin VAN DER PERREN
10 Stephen CARRIERE
11 Nan SONG
12 Viktor PFEIFER

 

[dorispulaski]

Riazanova & Tkachenko won the bronze medal at Nebelhorn this summer, behind Capellini/Lanotte and Pechalat and Bouzat, but ahead of the Shibutanis. They were 2nd in the SD, 3rd in the LP. C/L were 1st in the SD/ 4th in the LP. No one should be ruling them out for the bronze medal.

 

[seniorita]

I hadnt realised which skaters skate here, it is like Nhk reloaded

 

[siberia82]

I hadnt realised which skaters skate here, it is like Nhk reloaded

Let's hope the sequel is better than the original.

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

Let's hope the sequel is better than the original.

 

[NMURA]

Men
Takahashi
Oda
Rippon

It's kind of a tragedy if Rippon misses GPF with 230+ scores twice.

Ladies
Flatt
Murakami
Kostner

Kostner always bombs in North America, but with that jump layout, she may survive.

Pairs
S S
S H
D B

Ice Dance
D W
C P
Shibs

 

[museksk8r]

Men
Takahashi
Oda
Rippon

It's kind of a tragedy if Rippon misses GPF with 230+ scores twice.

Yes, Rippon could very well experience the same fate that Rochette did during the 2007-2008 season when her points were definitely well enough to go to the GPF (ranked 4th in point totals behind Kim, Asada, and Nakano), but having to face tougher competitive fields, her placements (two bronze medals) denied her a GPF berth. Due to this, skaters with lesser point totals but easier competitors to compete with like Kostner, Meissner, and Zhang got to go instead.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

If predictions are based on a skater's nationality or favorite, I would prefer "Other Things" to be a separate thread.

 

[silverlake22]

Oda beat Rippon by what, 3 points at SC? I think hometown bonus will be enough to make up for that meaning if Adam goes clean, regardless of what Oda does, he will come in 2nd and that should qualify him for the GPF. There's also the chance Takahashi will tank, in which case Adam could win, or if Oda brings the 4-3-3, Adam could still come in 2nd. Oda's programs are not great this season and he won't try the quad in the SP, meaning his only advantage over Rippon will come in his tougher jump layout in the FS, but Rippon is better at milking the spins, gaining extra points for his Rippon lutz and Tano 3 jump combo, and will likely have higher PCS, all of which should allow him to beat Oda.

 

[FlattFan]

Oda's PCS is higher than Rippon's.
Oda beat Rippon by 3 points at SC with a fall. He would beat Rippon by 10 points without the -3 GOE and -1 deduction for the fall and +GOE on that gorgeous triple Axel.

 

[silverlake22]

Oda's PCS is higher than Rippon's.
Oda beat Rippon by 3 points at SC with a fall. He would beat Rippon by 10 points without the -3 GOE and -1 deduction for the fall and +GOE on that gorgeous triple Axel.

Adam's PCS will likely get a big boost here. Plus he also stepped out on his 2nd 3a in Canada.