Predictions for Russian JGP team 2016-17

[hugo]

I think that sending Lozko and Nugumanova for second GP events makes no sense. They aren't capable to avoid their main problem with UR's and have no chances with Japans for GPF.
Instead of them I would send Samodurova (not because she has a chance for GPF, but to give her more experience, she is worth of it) especially for Tallin, to avoid an accidental win of Yamashita, and Panenkova (just to show her on international event, she is not strong yet with PCS of course, but has solid jumps).
It's my opinion, but I think that RusFed won't do that... unfortunately

 

[puremagic]

Yep. That would be very interesting to give two spots to Panenkova instead Lozko and Nugumanova. If Panenkova win both events and Zagitova with Gubanova will be right behind her, that could be 5 Russians and 1 Japanese (Honda or Kihira) in JGF. But this kind of fantastic but still interesting option.

 

[hugo]

man, be serious... (unless you want to be as funny as "bosskil"...) I mean, not 2 but 1 spot for Daria Panenkova, and second for Sonia Samodurova.
If russian girls get 3 places in GPF, it will be ok, because japans are really good this year

 

[puremagic]

man, be serious... (unless you want to be as funny as "bosskil"...) I mean, not 2 but 1 spot for Daria Panenkova, and second for Sonia Samodurova.
If russian girls get 3 places in GPF, it will be ok, because japans are really good this year

What are you talking about?!

Gubanova, Zagitova, Tsurskaya are almost guaranteed 3 spots ALREADY.
4th spot - Konstantinova is questionable
Remains two spots. Why RusFed should send different girls with bad result instead girl which can win both events? Whats funny about that? As I said it is fantastic scenario, but it could be real and very interesting.

 

[kalee]

Looking at the bigger picture, 2 events for Lozko and 1 for Samodurova isn't all that unfair. Last season, Lozko and Konstantinova were denied JGP assignments in favour of Mikhailova, Mitrofanova and Pervushkina, even though they surpassed those 3 in the interim period between Russian Nats 2015 and the 2015-16 JGP season. This has proven to be costly to both the girls and the team, especially when Sima bombed worse than anyone would expect and Russia needed a pipeline of talent that could step in.

RusFed naming Panenkova and Kurakova to the reserve lists on JGP 6 and 7 shows that they've learned from that situation, and are ready to give opportunities to up and coming youngsters of the season if someone from this year's team bombs. But so far, the Russian team as a whole has done much better than last year -- nobody has posted any sub-150 scores yet for example, and the Russian girls have not lost to anyone except each other and a crop of Japanese girls who are stronger than last year as well (except Alisa Fedichkina who is still not fully fit yet).

So, giving a full JGP season to Lozko and Konstantinova is not such a travesty as they also have a mountain to climb in aspiring to senior B assignments next year. So far, they have capitalized better on their opportunities than Mikhailova, Mitrofanova and Pervushkina did last year. There is next year to give the spotlight to Panenkova and Samodurova. If anything, Liza N will be under serious pressure from that cohort.

 

[stryke]

Next year we have another round of wonder kids joining the battle for spots. If you can even imagine it getting any worse within the Junior field. Panenkova needs to shine and shine NOW!

 

[[email protected]]

Not necessarily. There is one scenario where Yuna actually might still have a chance.
Ljubljana: Marin #1 (2+1 = 28 pts), Alina #2 (1+2 = 28 pts), Rika #3 (2+3 = 24 pts)
Tallinn: Polina #1 (1+1 = 30 pts), Mako #2 (3+2 = 24 pts), Liza N. #3 (3+3 = 22 pts)
Dresden: Yuna #1 (4+1 = 24 pts), Nastia #2 (1+2 = 28 pts), Stasya #3 (2+3 = 24 pts)

As I said if Lyublyana stays as it is now it makes sense to switch Gubanova and Nugumanova. There will be better scenarios for Russia then: Nugumanova wins - she is in, Konstantinova wins - she is in, Shiraiwa wins and Konstantinova is second - Konstantinova is in. And how it looks now no matter how Yuna performs the task for Stasya to beat Liza N seems easier than to beat Gubanova who scores above 180 with 2 falls.

 

[bosskil]

Yep. Tactics is one thing, but I imagine there are also human approach and respect to skaters issues to be considered.
I mean, last year in their first GP event Mikhailova got 4th with 152 points and Mitrofanova 6th with 149 points and both of them were awarded another shot in JGP.
Comparing to that, it seems a bit unfair and demoralizing to deny bronze medalists Lozko (162) and Nugumanova (173) the next chance.
We can't forget, that in addition to winning all the medals, feds and coaches are also raising these kids.

 

[oleada]

Panenkova is fine, but her basics and spins are weak and need a ton of work. I don't think she's significantly better than anyone who's already assigned.

Both Nugumanova and Lozko medaled, and as despite Samodurova scoring higher, they're actually in better position to qualify to the final than she is. There's always events than are weaker than others and skaters will benefit from that, which the Russian fed has no control over. I think that assignments make sense. It sucks for Sofia (and I like her tons!) but hopefully she presented herself well and hopefully can focus on qualifying for Junior Worlds.

 

[kalee]

To put things in perspective, all of these girls are already highly qualified. Last year's cutoff for the top 24 season's best was 179.41 (by Katelyn Osmond) and for the top 75 season's best was 149.12 (by Paige Rydberg). To put it bluntly, if these girls were from any country other than Russia, they would have no problems turning senior and competing at the highest level. So to cut a skater's career off abruptly just because they didn't score 180+ at their first JGP outing is perhaps unnecessarily cruel -- and that's what it would be to Lozko since this is likely the year that will determine if she has a chance of turning senior or not.

Even though Japan has almost as deep a field as Russia, they have done a great job at spreading opportunities to a wide range of qualified skaters. If we applied the thought process from this thread to team Japan, the likes of Rika Hongo, Yuka Nagai, Mai Mihara, and Yura Matsuda would never have had a chance to turn senior, let alone get 2 senior GP assignments apiece. Kaori Sakamoto would never have had the chance to get her first JGP win in her 4th season of junior competition, beating Marin Honda. Rin Nitaya, who is competing in JGP at age 19, would be thinking of retiring rather than turning senior next year. Even skaters who don't have a chance to compete for Worlds or Olympic spots, such as Miyabi Oba, Riona Kato, and Miyu Nakashio all had the chance to skate at one senior GP comp. No matter how much we carp about kicking out one Russian skater or another because of their under-performance, they are at least as good as the Japanese girls who have made it to GP. And if they're able to compete at the highest level, they should have the chance to get to that stage even if it's only for once in a lifetime.

 

[hanca]

To put things in perspective, all of these girls are already highly qualified. Last year's cutoff for the top 24 season's best was 179.41 (by Katelyn Osmond) and for the top 75 season's best was 149.12 (by Paige Rydberg). To put it bluntly, if these girls were from any country other than Russia, they would have no problems turning senior and competing at the highest level. So to cut a skater's career off abruptly just because they didn't score 180+ at their first JGP outing is perhaps unnecessarily cruel -- and that's what it would be to Lozko since this is likely the year that will determine if she has a chance of turning senior or not.

Even though Japan has almost as deep a field as Russia, they have done a great job at spreading opportunities to a wide range of qualified skaters. If we applied the thought process from this thread to team Japan, the likes of Rika Hongo, Yuka Nagai, Mai Mihara, and Yura Matsuda would never have had a chance to turn senior, let alone get 2 senior GP assignments apiece. Kaori Sakamoto would never have had the chance to get her first JGP win in her 4th season of junior competition, beating Marin Honda. Rin Nitaya, who is competing in JGP at age 19, would be thinking of retiring rather than turning senior next year. Even skaters who don't have a chance to compete for Worlds or Olympic spots, such as Miyabi Oba, Riona Kato, and Miyu Nakashio all had the chance to skate at one senior GP comp. No matter how much we carp about kicking out one Russian skater or another because of their under-performance, they are at least as good as the Japanese girls who have made it to GP. And if they're able to compete at the highest level, they should have the chance to get to that stage even if it's only for once in a lifetime.

I don't see how taking second event from Lozko would be cruel. Scoring 160 when skating for Russian ladies us just not good enough. She didn't deliver. I bet you her coach was not patting her shoulder saying 'well done for bronze medal'. Her coach was very likely saying that it wasn't her best day and that this was not good enough. Because pretending that 160 is great when all her team mates are scoring 170 and 180 is not doing her any favours. She was lucky that her competitors have not done well either, but unfortunately, she is not competing only with those skaters from JGP event. She is also competing with her Russian team mates for more events, and to stand out so that she is going to be considered for junior worlds.

I don't think Japanese spreads the assignments better. They are just lucky that their senior ladies are not as fully crowded as they are in Russia, so the solution in Japan is to turn senior as soon as you can. In Russia there is so many senior ladies and most of them with medals from Europeans/worlds, that it can be quite hard to do things any better with the assignments. Crowd at junior level, crowded at senior level. What else can you do?

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

It's a lovely crowd though

 

[kalee]

Scoring 160 when skating for Russian ladies us just not good enough. She didn't deliver. I bet you her coach was not patting her shoulder saying 'well done for bronze medal'. Her coach was very likely saying that it wasn't her best day and that this was not good enough. Because pretending that 160 is great when all her team mates are scoring 170 and 180 is not doing her any favours.

Fully agree with you that it would not be a compliment to tell Alisa "well done, you got a medal". Because that is like telling her that she does not have the potential to do better. Similarly, taking away her 2nd JGP event would also send the identical message: that she will never be able to qualify for senior competition.

This is the middle ground: 162 was not good enough and she should feel it. But she has the opportunity to better her score and she should have her eye trained on the top 24 season's best. She may or may not turn senior next year, but this year is her opportunity to show that she has the ability to be competitive at the senior level.

the solution in Japan is to turn senior as soon as you can.

On the contrary -- Japan is more forgiving to skaters who become fully competitive at the age of 17+ than Russia (case in point: Rika Hongo). That being said, the Russian field may be crowded but there aren't any skaters who were denied senior GP spots despite fulfilling the top 24 season's best / top 24 world standings criteria. Diana Pervushkina is the only senior age-eligible lady in the top 75 season's best who did not qualify to senior GP, and her PB is 159.61. So no, Alisa didn't do great, but she also doesn't deserve to be cast aside like garbage.

Still, Sofia did indeed do significantly better and if Sofia were age-eligible to turn senior next year, she should get the spot on the same reasoning (that what it will do for her season's best & standings are crucial to her career). But a few months makes all the difference in this case & Sofia has 1 more junior season to build her resume, which is probably the factor in this case.

 

[hanca]

Fully agree with you that it would not be a compliment to tell Alisa "well done, you got a medal". Because that is like telling her that she does not have the potential to do better. Similarly, taking away her 2nd JGP event would also send the identical message: that she will never be able to qualify for senior competition.

This is the middle ground: 162 was not good enough and she should feel it. But she has the opportunity to better her score and she should have her eye trained on the top 24 season's best. She may or may not turn senior next year, but this year is her opportunity to show that she has the ability to be competitive at the senior level.



On the contrary -- Japan is more forgiving to skaters who become fully competitive at the age of 17+ than Russia (case in point: Rika Hongo). That being said, the Russian field may be crowded but there aren't any skaters who were denied senior GP spots despite fulfilling the top 24 season's best / top 24 world standings criteria. Diana Pervushkina is the only senior age-eligible lady in the top 75 season's best who did not qualify to senior GP, and her PB is 159.61. So no, Alisa didn't do great, but she also doesn't deserve to be cast aside like garbage.

Still, Sofia did indeed do significantly better and if Sofia were age-eligible to turn senior next year, she should get the spot on the same reasoning (that what it will do for her season's best & standings are crucial to her career). But a few months makes all the difference in this case & Sofia has 1 more junior season to build her resume, which is probably the factor in this case.

I disagree that taking away second assignment from Lozko would be sending her a message that she will never be able to qualify to seniors. The message that it would send is that someone else did better (point wise) so they deserve the second assignment more than her. It is fair play. This is not about whether Lozko will be senior eligible next season or not. This is about rewarding her current performance, and on this occasion she doesn't deserve the reward as much as someone else did. Look at Sakhanovich and Sotskova. Sakhanovich was kept at junior level a year extra even though she has already been senior eligible, and even though she already had two medals from JGPF and two silver medals from junior worlds. Sotskova was also made to stay in juniors one extra season, even though she was already senior eligible. So why couldn't Lozko remain junior even next season, if her current results are not good enough to move up? What makes her so special, that she should get a special treatment only because she will be age eligible? The message isn't that she will never be able to move up. The message is that she must do better if she wants to be rewarded.

 

[kalee]

Yes, how we look at the situation depends on our assumption regarding whether Lozko has a chance to compete again in juniors next year or not.

In my perspective, the chances of Lozko turning senior internationally next season are low to nil. However, the 2nd JGP event is critical to the Fed getting enough data to make a decision on whether to invest in her for one more junior international season, or to relegate her back to domestic competition only.

To be competitive internationally, a Russian skater has to score 190+ to 200+ on a consistent basis as a senior. But when juniors are deployed to JGP's at age 13-15, they usually debut with scores of 150+ to 160+ (with exceptions of course) and it's a gamble on whether they stay put at that level (and drop off) or progress to 180+ (and turn senior). If a girl hits the 150+ threshold before turning 13, she has 2 years and 3-4 JGP's to post that level of improvement, but Lozko hit it half a year too late for last year's JGP, so she only has these 2 opportunities before she gets relegated off the international team.

Thus, Lozko getting 2 assignments this year is not giving her a special advantage to turn senior, but rather to level the playing field as she lost 1 year's JGP opportunities. Even if she improves her scores to the high 170+ range, she is likely to still need to sustain this (and in fact improve to surpass 180) for a 2nd year of JGP before being offered anything at the senior level.
Sofia, on the other hand, has 1 JGP this year + 2 JGP's next year + potentially a 3rd junior season if she sustains her performance -- longer timeframe as she is younger.

 

[sneakers]

Lozko getting a 170+ looks to be farfetched as of today.. maybe Nugumanova has more of a chance if some of her jumps don't get UR calls. :hopelessness:

 

[hanca]

In my perspective, the chances of Lozko turning senior internationally next season are low to nil. However, the 2nd JGP event is critical to the Fed getting enough data to make a decision on whether to invest in her for one more junior international season, or to relegate her back to domestic competition only.

To be competitive internationally, a Russian skater has to score 190+ to 200+ on a consistent basis as a senior. But when juniors are deployed to JGP's at age 13-15, they usually debut with scores of 150+ to 160+ (with exceptions of course) and it's a gamble on whether they stay put at that level (and drop off) or progress to 180+ (and turn senior). If a girl hits the 150+ threshold before turning 13, she has 2 years and 3-4 JGP's to post that level of improvement, but Lozko hit it half a year too late for last year's JGP, so she only has these 2 opportunities before she gets relegated off the international team.

Thus, Lozko getting 2 assignments this year is not giving her a special advantage to turn senior, but rather to level the playing field as she lost 1 year's JGP opportunities. Even if she improves her scores to the high 170+ range, she is likely to still need to sustain this (and in fact improve to surpass 180) for a 2nd year of JGP before being offered anything at the senior level.
Sofia, on the other hand, has 1 JGP this year + 2 JGP's next year + potentially a 3rd junior season if she sustains her performance -- longer timeframe as she is younger.

But this shouldn't be about their ages. Lozko is no more deserving because she is older. The age should have nothing to do with it. Lozko did not 'lose' her first year or GP events, she just was not good enough. Pogorilaya also lost her first year of JGP and it didn't affect her long term prospect. The bottom line is, Samodurova performed better and therefore she deserves the second event more than Lozko. And if Lozko improves next year, she can do whatever she wants to, for example turn to seniors.

Giving Lozko second event is giving her special treatment, because all other Russian ladies had to DESERVE their second event by delivering at their first event. This would be very unfair towards Samodurova, becausebabe is missing out by Lozko getting special treatment.

 

[noidont]

I adore Sofia but on paper Lozko has a higher chance of qualifying to GPF which is the logic behind selections of every federation. Frankly either Sofia or Alisa is probably gonna end up fourth in Slovenia. There are still junior B events Sofia can go to. It won't make a big difference as she really has little chance of making it to GPF. I suspect this year JGPF qualifiers can place no lower than 2nd.
Sofia had great programs last year but I find her programs this season not highlighting her strong points. I wish she would go back to last year's SP.

 

[kalee]

Lozko did not 'lose' her first year or GP events, she just was not good enough.

Lozko wasn't competitive at the time of the 2015 Russian Junior Nats, which was why Mikhailova, Mitrofanova and Pervushkina got the slots.
But she improved rapidly over the spring and summer so that by the time the season started in fall 2015, she was scoring in the 160's and 170's where those 3 were at the 150+ range.

It's hard to predict the trajectory of a skater's development, so not surprising that there are cases of mis-match like this where Lozko was better than the girls assigned to JGP last year, and now there are other girls who are performing better than her this year but still in the waiting line for JGP slots.

What's more important in the long run is that all skaters who perform at a competitive threshold eventually get their opportunities (over 2-3 seasons) to log in enough ISU comps that they are able to satisfy the GP qualification criteria provided they perform. That's self-selecting to a degree -- if Lozko misses the top 24 season's best even after a 2nd try at JGP, it's a clear signal that she is not going to reach that level and it will mean others will get the international opportunities in future. However if she did manage to get a 180+ score in Ljubljana (which admittedly is far-fetched), that would be a turning point and springboard for her to work towards higher level international competition.

 

[The Finn]

Russian team did very well this season, especially men and pairs did a very good job. Russia got 14 skaters/teams to the JGP final this year.

JGP finalist
Men (4): Alexander Samarin, Roman Savosin, Ilia Skirda and Dmitri Aliev
Ladies (3): Anastasiia Gubanova, Polina Tsurskaya and Alina Zagitova
Pairs (5): Mishina/Mirzoev, Ustimkina/Volodin, Atakhanova/Spiridonov, Boikova/Kozlovskii and Borisova/Sopot
Ice dance (2): Loboda/Drozd and Shpilevaya/Smirnov

Additionally Liza Nugumanova and Skoptcova/Aleshin are 1st alternates. Stasya Konstantinova and Polishchuk/Vakhnov are 2nd alternates.

Russian skaters/teams at the JGPF in the last for seasons.
2016-17: 14 skaters/teams (4+3+5+2)
2015-16: 11 skaters/teams (1+3+4+3)
2014-15: 12 skaters/teams (1+3+4+4)
2013-14: 13 skaters/teams (2+4+5+2)

So, Russia have had 5 pairs at the JGPF a couple of seasons ago but 4 men in the final is something one haven't seen in a while.