Predictions for Russian JGP team 2016-17

[The Finn]

It is a bit early to start speculating about next JGP season but I will do it anyway.

Main contenders for JGP season 2017-2018

Ladies
Anastasiia Gubanova - Will make it for sure. Can't move to seniors yet
Polina Tsurskaya - Will move to seniors, I think, but you never know.
Alina Zagitova - Could move to seniors I guess, but I think she will stay in juniors.
Elizaveta Nugumanova - Will make it for sure. Can't move to seniors yet
Stanislava Konstantinova - Will most likely move to seniors.
Alisa Lozko - Could move to seniors but I doubt she will. She will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team.
Sofia Samodurova - Might make the team. Can't move to seniors yet
Alisa Fedichkina - Could move to seniors I guess. If she doesn't she will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team.
Anna Shcherbakova - Will make the team for sure.
Daria Panenkova - Will make the team this season for sure.
Ekaterina Kurakova - It is likely that she will make her JGP debut. In theory she could move to seniors but that is just in theory.
Anastasia Gulyakova - Might very well make the team.
Viktoria Vasilieva - Might very well make the team.
Alexandra Trusova - She might be a bit behind at the moment but she might still very well make it to the team.

So, I would say these would make the Russian JGP team next season: Gubanova, Zagitova, Shcherbakova, Panenkova, Nugumanova, Kurakova and Gulyakova. The main substitutes would be Trusova, Vasilieva, Samodurova and Lozko. That would make even better team than this year.

Of course we will have to remember that there are other very good contenders like Anna Tarusina and Anastasia Mukhortova who both are injured at the moment. There are also skaters like Anastasia Tarakanova and Ekaterina Mitrofanova who could also be real contenders. Mitrofanova did very well at her latest competition, in theory she too could move to seniors.

Men
Alexander Samarin - Will most likely move to seniors
Dmitri Aliev - Will most likely move to seniors
Roman Savosin - Will most likely move to seniors
Ilia Skirda - Will make the team for sure
Petr Gumennik - Will make the team for sure
Alexey Erokhov - Will make the team for sure
Artem Kovalev - Will make the team for sure
Evgeni Semenenko - Will make the team
Georgy Kunitsa - Will make the team
Artur Danielyan - Might make the team
Egor Rukhin - Might make the team

So, Russian team would be: Skirda, Gumennik, Erokhov, Kovalev, Semenenko, Kunitsa and Danielyan or Rukhin. Of course there is a possibility that Russian Fed doesn't allow all big names to move to seniors in which case Savosin would likely be the one who would have to stay in juniors one more season.

Pairs
Anastasia Mishina / Vladislav Mirzoev - Usually pairs don't move to seniors until they have to but I have a feeling that these two might move to seniors.
Alina Ustimkina / Nikita Volodin - Will make the team for sure
Amina Atakhanova / Ilia Spiridonov - Will make the team for sure
Aleksandra Boikova / Dmitrii Kozlovskii - Will likely make it
Ekaterina Borisova / Dmitry Sopot - If Katia doesn't have a triple jump soon they will be in trouble.
Anastasia Poluianova / Maksim Selkin - Will likely make it
Kseniia Akhanteva / Valerii Kolesov
Nika Osipova / Alexander Gallyamov
Albina Sokur / Roman Pleshkov
Maria Chuzhanova / Denis Mintsev
Daria Kvartalova / Alex Sviatchenko
Anastasia Melnikova / Alexander Simenenko
Elizaveta Zhuk / Egor Britkov

Pairs who will make the team are too difficult to predict at this time. It is a pity that there are so many good pairs but only 6 pairs can have 2 events.

Ice dance
Anastasia Shpilevaya / Grigory Smirnov - Will make the team for sure
Anastasia Skoptcova / Kirill Aleshin - Will make the team for sure
Sofia Polishchuk / Alexander Vakhnov - Will make the team for sure
Arina Ushakova / Maxim Nekrasov - Will make the team
Sofia Shevchenko / Igor Eremenko - Will make the team
Evgeniia Lopareva / Alexey Karpushov
Polina Ivanenko / Daniil Karpov
Eva Kuts / Dmitrii Mikhailov
Ksenia Konkina / Grigory Yakushev
Yana Buga / Georgiy Pokhilyuk

The first 5 teams are easy to predict but the rest not so much.

 

[emzdeluxe]

It is a bit early to start speculating about next JGP season but I will do it anyway.

Main contenders for JGP season 2017-2018

Ladies
Anastasiia Gubanova - Will make it for sure. Can't move to seniors yet
Polina Tsurskaya - Will move to seniors, I think, but you never know.
Alina Zagitova - Could move to seniors I guess, but I think she will stay in juniors.
Elizaveta Nugumanova - Will make it for sure. Can't move to seniors yet
Stanislava Konstantinova - Will most likely move to seniors.
Alisa Lozko - Could move to seniors but I doubt she will. She will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team.
Sofia Samodurova - Might make the team. Can't move to seniors yet
Alisa Fedichkina - Could move to seniors I guess. If she doesn't she will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team.
Anna Shcherbakova - Will make the team for sure.
Daria Panenkova - Will make the team this season for sure.
Ekaterina Kurakova - It is likely that she will make her JGP debut. In theory she could move to seniors but that is just in theory.
Anastasia Gulyakova - Might very well make the team.
Viktoria Vasilieva - Might very well make the team.
Alexandra Trusova - She might be a bit behind at the moment but she might still very well make it to the team.

So, I would say these would make the Russian JGP team next season: Gubanova, Zagitova, Shcherbakova, Panenkova, Nugumanova, Kurakova and Gulyakova. The main substitutes would be Trusova, Vasilieva, Samodurova and Lozko. That would make even better team than this year.

Of course we will have to remember that there are other very good contenders like Anna Tarusina and Anastasia Mukhortova who both are injured at the moment. There are also skaters like Anastasia Tarakanova and Ekaterina Mitrofanova who could also be real contenders. Mitrofanova did very well at her latest competition, in theory she too could move to seniors.

Men
Alexander Samarin - Will most likely move to seniors
Dmitri Aliev - Will most likely move to seniors
Roman Savosin - Will most likely move to seniors
Ilia Skirda - Will make the team for sure
Petr Gumennik - Will make the team for sure
Alexey Erokhov - Will make the team for sure
Artem Kovalev - Will make the team for sure
Evgeni Semenenko - Will make the team
Georgy Kunitsa - Will make the team
Artur Danielyan - Might make the team
Egor Rukhin - Might make the team

So, Russian team would be: Skirda, Gumennik, Erokhov, Kovalev, Semenenko, Kunitsa and Danielyan or Rukhin. Of course there is a possibility that Russian Fed doesn't allow all big names to move to seniors in which case Savosin would likely be the one who would have to stay in juniors one more season.

Pairs
Anastasia Mishina / Vladislav Mirzoev - Usually pairs don't move to seniors until they have to but I have a feeling that these two might move to seniors.
Alina Ustimkina / Nikita Volodin - Will make the team for sure
Amina Atakhanova / Ilia Spiridonov - Will make the team for sure
Aleksandra Boikova / Dmitrii Kozlovskii - Will likely make it
Ekaterina Borisova / Dmitry Sopot - If Katia doesn't have a triple jump soon they will be in trouble.
Anastasia Poluianova / Maksim Selkin - Will likely make it
Kseniia Akhanteva / Valerii Kolesov
Nika Osipova / Alexander Gallyamov
Albina Sokur / Roman Pleshkov
Maria Chuzhanova / Denis Mintsev
Daria Kvartalova / Alex Sviatchenko
Anastasia Melnikova / Alexander Simenenko
Elizaveta Zhuk / Egor Britkov

Pairs who will make the team are too difficult to predict at this time. It is a pity that there are so many good pairs but only 6 pairs can have 2 events.

Ice dance
Anastasia Shpilevaya / Grigory Smirnov - Will make the team for sure
Anastasia Skoptcova / Kirill Aleshin - Will make the team for sure
Sofia Polishchuk / Alexander Vakhnov - Will make the team for sure
Arina Ushakova / Maxim Nekrasov - Will make the team
Sofia Shevchenko / Igor Eremenko - Will make the team
Evgeniia Lopareva / Alexey Karpushov
Polina Ivanenko / Daniil Karpov
Eva Kuts / Dmitrii Mikhailov
Ksenia Konkina / Grigory Yakushev
Yana Buga / Georgiy Pokhilyuk

The first 5 teams are easy to predict but the rest not so much.

Why is it hard for Fedichkina to make it next season?when in fact when she's healthy she can compete with any one of them..


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[The Finn]

Why is it hard for Fedichkina to make it next season?when in fact when she's healthy she can compete with any one of them..

Well, because the quality of young Russian skaters is so great that a bit above 180 points will get you nowhere. As you can see from the list there are many girls who can score well over 190 points and I am pretty sure there will be more of them soon. Can Alisa be one of them? Anything is possible, we will see, but in any case I am pretty sure that the likes of Trusova, Vasilieva and Gulyakova will soon be scoring above 190 points.

Highest scores this season by Russian skaters. RC = Russian Cup event

Ladies
Anna Shcherbakova 195.86 RC
Ekaterina Kurakova 195.04 RC
Daria Panenkova 194.83 RC
Anastasiia Gubanova 194.57 JGP
Alina Zagitova 194.37 JGP
Polina Tsurskaya 194.02 JGP
Stanislava Konstantinova 193.72 RC (Senior event)
Alisa Lozko 189.67 RC (Senior event)
Anastasia Gulyakova 188.86 RC
Elizaveta Nugumanova 188.43 JGP
Alexandra Trusova 184.54 RC
Viktoria Vasilieva 182.91 RC
Sofia Samodurova 182.00 RC
Ekaterina Mitrofanova 181.46 RC
Alisa Fedichkina 179.82 RC (Senior event)

 

[emzdeluxe]

Well, because the quality of young Russian skaters is so great that a bit above 180 points will get you nowhere. As you can see from the list there are many girls who can score well over 190 points and I am pretty sure there will be more of them soon. Can Alisa be one of them? Anything is possible, we will see, but in any case I am pretty sure that the likes of Trusova, Vasilieva and Gulyakova will soon be scoring above 190 points.

Highest scores this season by Russian skaters. RC = Russian Cup event

Ladies
Anna Shcherbakova 195.86 RC
Ekaterina Kurakova 195.04 RC
Daria Panenkova 194.83 RC
Anastasiia Gubanova 194.57 JGP
Alina Zagitova 194.37 JGP
Polina Tsurskaya 194.02 JGP
Stanislava Konstantinova 193.72 RC (Senior event)
Alisa Lozko 189.67 RC (Senior event)
Anastasia Gulyakova 188.86 RC
Elizaveta Nugumanova 188.43 JGP
Alexandra Trusova 184.54 RC
Viktoria Vasilieva 182.91 RC
Sofia Samodurova 182.00 RC
Ekaterina Mitrofanova 181.46 RC
Alisa Fedichkina 179.82 RC (Senior event)

Well you cannot compare domestic competition scores to international competition scores..


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[The Finn]

Well you cannot compare domestic competition scores to international competition scores..

Nastia Gubanova, Polina Tsurskaya and Alina Zagitova can score above 200 points in domestic competitions for sure but we are not talking about them here. Alisa scored about 187 points at the Russian junior championships last year. As I have said there are quite a few girls who can score well above 190 points at the junior championships this year. I could definitely see that Alisa might very well lose to many of these girls at this year championships but we will see how it goes.

 

[hanca]

We are not even half way through this season and you are already speculating who will get on junior/senior team next year? Junior events start in August and senior in September/October. A lot can happen in the next ten/twelve months.

 

[emzdeluxe]

Nastia Gubanova, Polina Tsurskaya and Alina Zagitova can score above 200 points in domestic competitions for sure but we are not talking about them here. Alisa scored about 187 points at the Russian junior championships last year. As I have said there are quite a few girls who can score well above 190 points at the junior championships this year. I could definitely see that Alisa might very well lose to many of these girls at this year championships but we will see how it goes.

Yeah there are so many talented young girls but to completely written her off and single her out is kind of rude esp when she's been to JGPF and Worlds..


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[emzdeluxe]

We are not even half way through this season and you are already speculating who will get on junior/senior team next year? Junior events start in August and senior in September/October. A lot can happen in the next ten/twelve months.

Exactly and to single out Alisa?


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[The Finn]

We are not even half way through this season and you are already speculating who will get on junior/senior team next year? Junior events start in August and senior in September/October. A lot can happen in the next ten/twelve months.

There is an easy fix to that - don't read them.

This year the only bigger surprise in ladies event was the rise of Alina Zagitova. The other names were pretty well known in advance. Pairs are pretty hard to predict since new pairs can arise fast but ice dancers are pretty easy to predict well in advance. Guys are more difficult to predict than ladies.

 

[The Finn]

Yeah there are so many talented young girls but to completely written her off and single her out is kind of rude esp when she's been to JGPF and Worlds..

That was absolutely nothing. If I would go to her thread, which is created by me by the way, and predict the same thing then it would be rude. Besides she wasn't the only one for whom I predicted difficulties because I said the same thing about other Alisa too.

And one more thing. Nobody has written off anyone. I predicted that she will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team which should be pretty obvious to most, so, it really shouldn't even be a surprise. In any case predicting difficulties is far from writting someone off.

 

[emzdeluxe]

That was absolutely nothing. If I would go to her thread, which is created by me by the way, and predict the same thing then it would be rude. Besides she wasn't the only one for whom I predicted difficulties because I said the same thing about other Alisa too.

And one more thing. Nobody has written off anyone. I predicted that she will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team which should be pretty obvious to most, so, it really shouldn't even be a surprise. In any case predicting difficulties is far from writting someone off.

Try to backread what you wrote you didn't even put her in the list of substitutes if that's not writing her off then i dont know what it is..


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[The Finn]

Try to backread what you wrote you didn't even put her in the list of substitutes if that's not writing her off then i dont know what it is..

Nope, I don't but you do.

This is what I wrote about a couple of the ladies.

Alina Zagitova - Could move to seniors I guess, but I think she will stay in juniors.

Alisa Lozko - Could move to seniors but I doubt she will.

Alisa Fedichkina - Could move to seniors I guess. If she doesn't she will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team.

Now, can you see what is the difference here? Even though all the sentences starts with "could move to seniors" the only one out of these three ladies who I think may very well move to seniors is Fedichkina and because of that there is no "but I think she will stay in juniors" or "but I doubt she will" at the end of the sentence. And that is why she is not among the substitutes.

I am pretty sure she would want to move to seniors and I think Russian Fed will allow multiple juniors to move to seniors after this season and I would think that Alisa would be 3rd in line after Polina and Stasya.

 

[emzdeluxe]

Nope, I don't but you do.

This is what I wrote about a couple of the ladies.





Now, can you see what is the difference here? Even though all the sentences starts with "could move to seniors" the only one out of these three ladies who I think may very well move to seniors is Fedichkina and because of that there is no "but I think she will stay in juniors" or "but I doubt she will" at the end of the sentence. And that is why she is not among the substitutes.

I am pretty sure she would want to move to seniors and I think Russian Fed will allow multiple juniors to move to seniors after this season and I would think that Alisa would be 3rd in line after Polina and Stasya.

Whether she move to seniors or not it's Alisa's decision but what you wrote about Alisa on the last sentence is like imposing that she should move to seniors because she will have a hard time making it in junior national team..


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[The Finn]

Whether she move to seniors or not it's Alisa's decision but what you wrote about Alisa on the last sentence is like imposing that she should move to seniors because she will have a hard time making it in junior national team..

I am pretty sure that federation and her coach are ones who will make the final decision. And personally I do think she should move to seniors and I think the Federation might agree, and I do think that if she doesn't she might not get any JGP event next season.

 

[emzdeluxe]

I am pretty sure that federation and her coach are ones who will make the final decision. And personally I do think she should move to seniors and I think the Federation might agree, and I do think that if she doesn't she might not get any JGP event next season.

It would be nice to see her in seniors but as you say she will have a hard time making it in juniors but, what about in seniors?she's gonna go against the likes of evgenia,anna,radionova,and so on..if her coaches and federation are wise enough they should let her stay in juniors to gain more experience cos practically speaking Alisa has a small chance in seniors rather than in juniors..the federation would not even consider her for Korea so the wise thing to do is to stay in juniors and not rush things up..


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[sneakers]

Alisa has no choice but to move seniors next year like Sakhanovich did this season, she wont be competitive if she stays in the junior level.

many junior girls can outscore her next season, Gubanova, Zagitova, Nugumanova, Kurakova, Tausina, Trusova, Scherbakova, Samodurova, Panenkova, Gulyakova, Vasilieva
did I miss anyone else who will beat Fedichkina ???

 

[emzdeluxe]

Alisa has no choice but to move seniors next year like Sakhanovich did this season, she wont be competitive if she stays in the junior level.

many junior girls can outscore her next season, Gubanova, Zagitova, Nugumanova, Kurakova, Tausina, Trusova, Scherbakova, Samodurova, Panenkova, Gulyakova, Vasilieva
did I miss anyone else who will beat Fedichkina ???

Sima's case is different.. last season she wanted to go senior already but i think the federation didn't let her..sotskova stayed in juniors for 3 seasons,why Alisa can't?lets face it even if she turns senior nxt yr she would not be in time for Korea so the most sensible thing to do is stay in juniors and aim for 2022 Olympics..


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[sneakers]

Sima's case is different.. last season she wanted to go senior already but i think the federation didn't let her..sotskova stayed in juniors for 3 seasons,why Alisa can't?lets face it even if she turns senior nxt yr she would not be in time for Korea so the most sensible thing to do is stay in juniors and aim for 2022 Olympics..


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but if she stays in junior, she will just stay in a limbo...
she wont get any JGP assignments next season, more junior russian girls are becoming eligible every year - who are better than Fedichkina, and lets face it wont make a difference if she stays in juniors, her only option is seniors next year !!

 

[emzdeluxe]

but if she stays in junior, she will just stay in a limbo...
she wont get any JGP assignments next season, more junior russian girls are becoming eligible every year - who are better than Fedichkina, and lets face it wont make a difference if she stays in juniors, her only option is seniors next year !!

Wow it seems like you're so sure that she's not going to get JGP event next season well let's see I hope to God that you're wrong though..btw I've to sleep already cos its past midnight here and I have work tom..[emoji4]


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[hanca]

but if she stays in junior, she will just stay in a limbo...
she wont get any JGP assignments next season, more junior russian girls are becoming eligible every year - who are better than Fedichkina, and lets face it wont make a difference if she stays in juniors, her only option is seniors next year !!

If she moves to seniors, she will be in the same limbo. She won't be guaranteed any GP assignments either because she did not have the results this season. I think she has a bigger chance of getting JGP event than getting GP event. For GP event she doesn't have the ranking points, the JGP event is decided by each federation who they want to send.

Or she may do both. Do JGP if the Russian federation sends her, and at the same time pick some extra points at senior Challenger events. Do both senior and junior nationals. Not sure if she will manage to place well enough to be sent to junior worlds or to Euros or worlds, but least she will have some points towards the following season and then she may get GP event.