Predictions for Russian JGP team 2016-17

[emzdeluxe]

If she moves to seniors, she will be in the same limbo. She won't be guaranteed any GP assignments either because she did not have the results this season. I think she has a bigger chance of getting JGP event than getting GP event. For GP event she doesn't have the ranking points, the JGP event is decided by each federation who they want to send.

BINGO your comment says it all.[emoji122]


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[sneakers]

If she moves to seniors, she will be in the same limbo. She won't be guaranteed any GP assignments either because she did not have the results this season. I think she has a bigger chance of getting JGP event than getting GP event. For GP event she doesn't have the ranking points, the JGP event is decided by each federation who they want to send.

at least if she moves to seniors next year, she can compete in senior Bs and rake in points to get grand prix assignments by 2018.
her chances of getting JGP assignments next season is bleak, there are more than 10 girls who can outscore her. I think she should also consider competing for Belarus, Tajikistan, Krygyztan, or other stan countries.

 

[hanca]

at least if she moves to seniors next year, she can compete in senior Bs and rake in points to get grand prix assignments by 2018.
her chances of getting JGP assignments next season is bleak, there are more than 10 girls who can outscore her. I think she should also consider competing for Belarus, Tajikistan, Krygyztan, or other stan countries.

But she can do both, trying to get JGP assignments and compete at senior Challenger events. I don't think she would need to change country yet. I don't see her as weak as you are implying. It is unfortunate that she didn't score well at JGP this season, but she still can get some points by doing B competitions this season.

 

[sneakers]

But she can do both, trying to get JGP assignments and compete at senior Challenger events. I don't think she would need to change country yet. I don't see her as weak as you are implying. It is unfortunate that she didn't score well at JGP this season, but she still can get some points by doing B competitions this season.

I am afraid she will be another Sakhanovich, who has bad technique issues but Fedichkina has underrotation issues.

 

[hanca]

There is an easy fix to that - don't read them.

This year the only bigger surprise in ladies event was the rise of Alina Zagitova. The other names were pretty well known in advance. Pairs are pretty hard to predict since new pairs can arise fast but ice dancers are pretty easy to predict well in advance. Guys are more difficult to predict than ladies.

I have no reason to skip them - it is not offensive. What I am saying is that the value of such exercise is zero because things tend to change within ten months.
Surprise was not only Zagitova, but also Panenkova and Gulyakova. In pairs and ice dance quite a few partnerships did not exist ten months ago and now look promising. Nika Osipova/Alexander Galyamov and Anastasia Poluyanova/Maxim Selkin did not exist, Alexandra Boikova/Dmitrii Kozlovskii were unknown or did not exist either... Ustimkina/Volodin (you consider them definitely in) may be struggling because of her height. Add into it problems with puberty for some of the teams and ladies...

 

[Pracygr]

It would be nice to see her in seniors but as you say she will have a hard time making it in juniors but, what about in seniors?she's gonna go against the likes of evgenia,anna,radionova,and so on..

Honestly, despite the names mentioned, there might still be more openings in seniors than in juniors. Sotskova wanted to move to seniors for precisely that reason. It's easier to start building reputation with the judges as a senior, because only the very top of juniors get noticed. It's also easier to score well on artistic merits in seniors, as juniors are always treated differently in that regard, and I think Alisa's way to success will likely require focus on that aspect. Finally there is a serious danger of being labeled as "not so talented" by staying in juniors for long and not doing well there, while not doing well immediately against big names in seniors will be expected and will not hurt her reputation as much at least for some time. There's a good number of reasons why moving to seniors might be a good idea.

 

[voolfee]

It is a bit early to start speculating about next JGP season but I will do it anyway.

Main contenders for JGP season 2017-2018

Ladies
Anastasiia Gubanova - Will make it for sure. Can't move to seniors yet
Polina Tsurskaya - Will move to seniors, I think, but you never know.
Alina Zagitova - Could move to seniors I guess, but I think she will stay in juniors.
Elizaveta Nugumanova - Will make it for sure. Can't move to seniors yet
Stanislava Konstantinova - Will most likely move to seniors.
Alisa Lozko - Could move to seniors but I doubt she will. She will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team.
Sofia Samodurova - Might make the team. Can't move to seniors yet
Alisa Fedichkina - Could move to seniors I guess. If she doesn't she will have a hard time to make it to the JGP team.
Anna Shcherbakova - Will make the team for sure.
Daria Panenkova - Will make the team this season for sure.
Ekaterina Kurakova - It is likely that she will make her JGP debut. In theory she could move to seniors but that is just in theory.
Anastasia Gulyakova - Might very well make the team.
Viktoria Vasilieva - Might very well make the team.
Alexandra Trusova - She might be a bit behind at the moment but she might still very well make it to the team.

So, I would say these would make the Russian JGP team next season: Gubanova, Zagitova, Shcherbakova, Panenkova, Nugumanova, Kurakova and Gulyakova. The main substitutes would be Trusova, Vasilieva, Samodurova and Lozko. That would make even better team than this year.

Of course we will have to remember that there are other very good contenders like Anna Tarusina and Anastasia Mukhortova who both are injured at the moment. There are also skaters like Anastasia Tarakanova and Ekaterina Mitrofanova who could also be real contenders. Mitrofanova did very well at her latest competition, in theory she too could move to seniors.

Men
Alexander Samarin - Will most likely move to seniors
Dmitri Aliev - Will most likely move to seniors
Roman Savosin - Will most likely move to seniors
Ilia Skirda - Will make the team for sure
Petr Gumennik - Will make the team for sure
Alexey Erokhov - Will make the team for sure
Artem Kovalev - Will make the team for sure
Evgeni Semenenko - Will make the team
Georgy Kunitsa - Will make the team
Artur Danielyan - Might make the team
Egor Rukhin - Might make the team

So, Russian team would be: Skirda, Gumennik, Erokhov, Kovalev, Semenenko, Kunitsa and Danielyan or Rukhin. Of course there is a possibility that Russian Fed doesn't allow all big names to move to seniors in which case Savosin would likely be the one who would have to stay in juniors one more season.

I'm not sure about Kurakova, Gulyakova and Vasilyeva. Mitrofanova and Mukhortova will not qualify to JGP for sure. I think Fedichkina will not go to seniors and will qualify to JGP for sure. Konstantinova too. But Zagitova can go to seniors. She shows much better results than this two girls. My russian team for JGP: Gubanova, Shcherbakova, Nugumanova, Fedichkina, Panenkova, Trusova, Samodurova or Zagitova, if she will not go to seniors.

In men there is Tutberidze's pupil Frolov and Efimchuk both with 3A. And you forgot Kondratyuk who tried to jump 3A already. My team: Savosin, Erokhov, Kovalev, Semenenko, Gumennik, Skirda, Frolov. I think Savosin will not go to seniors. There's still so much work.

 

[kalee]

Fedichkina's chances of turning senior next year may be also determined by the state of current senior skaters. Artemieva and Sima are not likely to qualify for senior GP next year with their current performance, indications are that Leonova is unlikely to, and Lipnitskaya is a big question mark.
Based on current performance + the assumption that there would be 4 spots opening up from current seniors, it seems likely that Polina would get 2 spots for sure, and the remaining 2 could be 2x Zagitik if she goes senior, or 1x Zagitik + 1 x Stasya.
Fedichkina is likely to be next in line behind these 3 (i.e. ahead of Lozko), so the 2 scenarios I can imagine her getting into senior GP is if (a) Zagitik stays in juniors one more year, or (b) Lipnitskaia drops out of senior GP thus freeing another 2 slots. In either scenario, Fedichkina would get 1, not 2 slots as her SB this year is likely to be too far away from the top-24 cut-off to qualify except as a host pick.
On the other hand, why should Samodurova's JGP chances next year be considered slim? Thought she would be one of the prime choices given that she scored 180 in Yokohama?

 

[hanca]

Fedichkina's chances of turning senior next year may be also determined by the state of current senior skaters. Artemieva and Sima are not likely to qualify for senior GP next year with their current performance, indications are that Leonova is unlikely to, and Lipnitskaya is a big question mark.
Based on current performance + the assumption that there would be 4 spots opening up from current seniors, it seems likely that Polina would get 2 spots for sure, and the remaining 2 could be 2x Zagitik if she goes senior, or 1x Zagitik + 1 x Stasya.
Fedichkina is likely to be next in line behind these 3 (i.e. ahead of Lozko), so the 2 scenarios I can imagine her getting into senior GP is if (a) Zagitik stays in juniors one more year, or (b) Lipnitskaia drops out of senior GP thus freeing another 2 slots. In either scenario, Fedichkina would get 1, not 2 slots as her SB this year is likely to be too far away from the top-24 cut-off to qualify except as a host pick.
On the other hand, why should Samodurova's JGP chances next year be considered slim? Thought she would be one of the prime choices given that she scored 180 in Yokohama?

Considering how long the federation kept Leonova, I don't think they will give up so quickly on Lipnitskaya. I can see them giving up on Artemeva, Leonova and maybe even Sakhanovich, but not Lipnitskaya yet. Besides, Lipnitskaya is scoring around 170, which is not great for Russian lady, but it is the same what Feditchkina is scoring, so why should they give up Lipnitskaya for Feditchkina?

 

[kalee]

Lip scored 165 at Ondrej Nepela, so that's about the same as Fedichkina did in JGP.
For Senior GP, ISU determines the qualifications based on season world ranking & season's bests. Lip is now in a precarious position on both as her world ranking is 41 currently on 2016/17 season & the fact that she didn't compete at SA will give her less chances to pull that up. She is also #35 on season's best (with Fedichkina at #36).
So hanca, guess you are right -- if Yulia cannot qualify through world ranking / season's best next year, then if RusFed has to do a host pick between her, Fedichkina & Sima, it will likely go to her.

 

[hanca]

Lip scored 165 at Ondrej Nepela, so that's about the same as Fedichkina did in JGP.
For Senior GP, ISU determines the qualifications based on season world ranking & season's bests. Lip is now in a precarious position on both as her world ranking is 41 currently on 2016/17 season & the fact that she didn't compete at SA will give her less chances to pull that up. She is also #35 on season's best (with Fedichkina at #36).
So hanca, guess you are right -- if Yulia cannot qualify through world ranking / season's best next year, then if RusFed has to do a host pick between her, Fedichkina & Sima, it will likely go to her.

But Lipnitskaya will have GP. If Artemeva and Leonova could have been getting them until now, I don't think Lipnitskaya will be without.

 

[The Finn]

Surprise was not only Zagitova, but also Panenkova and Gulyakova.

Panenkova was not a surprise at all. She was already great at the latter part of last season and a couple of writers here on this board predicted that she would get a JGP assignment this season. And this was done already late last season or early summer. I didn't agree to that prediction because she didn't make it to the Russian Junior Championships and she lost to her main competitors at the Russian Youth Championships but nevertheless everybody could see that she can be a real contender this season. So, most definitely not a surprise. Well, not to me anyway.

Gulyakova wasn't as good as Panenkova but she too did very well at the latter part of last season. It would have been a surprise if either one of them would have got a JGP event but they didn't, only Zagitova did.

 

[puremagic]

It would be nice to see her in seniors but as you say she will have a hard time making it in juniors but, what about in seniors?she's gonna go against the likes of evgenia,anna,radionova,and so on..if her coaches and federation are wise enough they should let her stay in juniors to gain more experience cos practically speaking Alisa has a small chance in seniors rather than in juniors..the federation would not even consider her for Korea so the wise thing to do is to stay in juniors and not rush things up..

The problem is - many talented girls every year in juniors and not so many in seniors. Here's already were mentioned girls like Leonova and Artemova. They are still somehow get GP spots. And for Alisa will be easy beat them at seniors to get senior GP spot than trying to fight with another kids with 170-190 scores in juniors.

 

[The Finn]

I'm not sure about Kurakova, Gulyakova and Vasilyeva.

I bet nobody is at this point but they look very good at the moment. However, they haven't really been tested mentally and it remains to be seen if they can deliver when it matters.

Mitrofanova and Mukhortova will not qualify to JGP for sure.

Mukhortova is injured at the moment, so, can't say anything about her but Mitrofanova did very well at her latest event. She is not that much behind the ladies who will most likely claim the last JGP spots. She is most definitely better than what she was last season. She is an underdog for sure but she will have her chances which are way better than what they were last season.

I think Fedichkina will not go to seniors and will qualify to JGP for sure.

For sure? Really? Well, we will see.

Konstantinova too.

I would be really surprised if she doesn't move to seniors.

But Zagitova can go to seniors. She shows much better results than this two girls.

But it is not about the results but what Federation wants. If it would be about the results then Federation would have let Sima to move to seniors after her 2nd WJC silver, but they didn't. I think that in this case they might be reluctant to let both Polina and Alina to move to seniors just like they were reluctant to let both Zhenia and Sima to move to seniors. There might also be other factors like Eteri. What does Eteri think about this? I don't know, but her opinion may be the most important factor here.

 

[puremagic]

I bet nobody is at this point but they look very good at the moment. However, they haven't really been tested mentally and it remains to be seen if they can deliver when it matters.

Kurakova was. She won Nestle Cup 2015 in the last year but something went wrong at Juniors RusNats with her jumps (almost all UR). But that was good experience.

 

[silverfoxes]

Maybe Alisa should be given the opportunity to fully recover after her injury before everyone tries to write her off. How many times does it have to be said that she lost 3 MONTHS of training? You have no idea how she will look by next season.

 

[voolfee]

For sure? Really? Well, we will see.

Why are you so underestimate Fedichkina? She is a strong skater, if in a good shape. At least she is better than some of the girls that you are included to the JGP: Nugumanova, Gulyakova and Kurakova.

I would be really surprised if she doesn't move to seniors.

Why Konstantinova should move to seniors? This season is her JGP debut and her results are not so high and stable.

 

[puremagic]

Maybe Alisa should be given the opportunity to fully recover after her injury before everyone tries to write her off. How many times does it have to be said that she lost 3 MONTHS of training? You have no idea how she will look by next season.

3 months you say? Do you know how much months lost Polina? hwell: And she is in a great shape right now. What about Alisa I doubt this is because her recovering. She lost speed in her skating. How does injury can influence on her speed? Lost 10 points by PCS - it's very hurt.

 

[mish]

Many things can happen with these girls in upcoming months, but Fedichkina is gonna need much improvement to claw her way up the juniors ladder for JGP spot next year. The way she's been skating this year surely won't be enough.

 

[hanca]

Panenkova was not a surprise at all. She was already great at the latter part of last season and a couple of writers here on this board predicted that she would get a JGP assignment this season. And this was done already late last season or early summer. I didn't agree to that prediction because she didn't make it to the Russian Junior Championships and she lost to her main competitors at the Russian Youth Championships but nevertheless everybody could see that she can be a real contender this season. So, most definitely not a surprise. Well, not to me anyway.

Gulyakova wasn't as good as Panenkova but she too did very well at the latter part of last season. It would have been a surprise if either one of them would have got a JGP event but they didn't, only Zagitova did.

I think you are slightly exaggerating Panenkova's scores from last season. She had:
145
154
162
179
180
182
Which shows me that it is nice that she is improving, but at the same time she had only three decent scores in the whole season. She didn't even qualify for junior nationals, and in junior B nationals she was only sixth! I don't know if that is good enough for you, but to me it doesn't particularly shows great result. Ok results yes, but not the result that couldn't be matched by another 10-20 Russian junior ladies skaters. I am sure that if you look into all junior ladies skaters, you will get about 10-20 of them who have either comparable or better reaults in the last season. So saying that Panenkova was known and her decent results this season were expected is delusional.